How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Chemical functionalities of high and low sulfur Australian coals : a case study using micro attenuated total reflectance–fourier transform infrared (ATR–FTIR) spectrometry

The macerals in bituminous coals with varying organic sulfur content from the Early Permian Greta Coal Measures at three locations (Southland Colliery, Drayton Colliery and the Cranky Corner Basin), in and around the Sydney Basin (Australia), have been studied using light-element electron microprobe (EMP) analysis and micro-ATR–FTIR. Electron microprobe analysis of individual macerals reveals that the vitrinite in both the Cranky Corner Basin and Drayton Colliery (Puxtrees seam) samples have similar carbon contents (ca. 78% C in telocollinite), suggesting that they are of equivalent rank. However, the Cranky Corner coals have anomalously low vitrinite reflectance (down to 0.45%) vs. the Drayton materials (ca. 0.7%). They also have very high organic S content (3–6.5%) and lower O content (ca. 10%) than the equivalent macerals in the Drayton sample (0.7% S and 15.6% O). A study was carried out to investigate the impacts of the high organic S on the functional groups of the macerals in these two otherwise iso-rank, stratigraphically-equivalent seams. An iso-rank low-S coal from the overlying Wittingham Coal Measures near Muswellbrook and coals of slightly higher rank from the Greta Coal Measures at Southland Colliery near Cessnock were also evaluated using the same techniques to extend the data set. Although the telocollinite in the Drayton and Cranky Corner coals have very similar carbon content (ca.78% C), the ATR–FTIR spectra of the vitrinite and inertinite macerals in these respectively low S and high S coals show some distinct differences in IR absorbance from various aliphatic and aromatic functional groups. The differences in absorbance of the aliphatic stretching bands (2800–3000 cm−1) and the aromatic carbon (CC) peak at 1606 cm−1 are very obvious. Compared to that of the Drayton sample (0.7% S and 15% O), the telocollinite of the Cranky Corner coal (6% S and 10% O) clearly shows: (i) less absorbance from OH groups, represented by a broad region around 3553 cm−1, (ii) much stronger aliphatic C–H absorbance (stretching modes around 3000–2800 cm−1 and bending modes around 1442 cm−1) and (iii) less absorbance from aromatic carbon functional groups (peaking at 1606 cm−1). Evaluation of the iso-rank Drayton and Cranky Corner coals shows that: (i) the aliphatic C–H absorbances decrease with increasing oxygen content but increase with increasing organic S content and (ii) the aromatic H to aliphatic H ratio (Har/Hali) for the telocollinite increases with (organic) O%, but decreases progressively with increasing organic S. The high organic S content in the maceral appears to be accompanied by a greater proportion of aliphatic functional groups, possibly as a result of some of the O within maceral ring structures in the high S coal samples being replaced.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of an anti-Streptococcus pyogenes vaccine candidate in multiple animal species

Streptococcus pyogenes, also known as Group A Streptococcus (GAS) has been associated with a range of diseases from the mild pharyngitis and pyoderma to more severe invasive infections such as streptococcal toxic shock. GAS also causes a number of non-suppurative post-infectious diseases such as rheumatic fever, rheumatic heart disease and glomerulonephritis. The large extent of GAS disease burden necessitates the need for a prophylactic vaccine that could target the diverse GAS emm types circulating globally. Anti-GAS vaccine strategies have focused primarily on the GAS M-protein, an extracellular virulence factor anchored to GAS cell wall. As opposed to the hypervariable N-terminal region, the C-terminal portion of the protein is highly conserved among different GAS emm types and is the focus of a leading GAS vaccine candidate, J8-DT/alum. The vaccine candidate J8-DT/alum was shown to be immunogenic in mice, rabbits and the non-human primates, hamadryas baboons. Similar responses to J8-DT/alum were observed after subcutaneous and intramuscular immunization with J8-DT/alum, in mice and in rabbits. Further assessment of parameters that may influence the immunogenicity of J8-DT demonstrated that the immune responses were identical in male and female mice and the use of alum as an adjuvant in the vaccine formulation significantly increased its immunogenicity, resulting in a long-lived serum IgG response. Contrary to the previous findings, the data in this thesis indicates that a primary immunization with J8-DT/alum (50ƒÊg) followed by a single boost is sufficient to generate a robust immune response in mice. As expected, the IgG response to J8- DT/alum was a Th2 type response consisting predominantly of the isotype IgG1 accompanied by lower levels of IgG2a. Intramuscular vaccination of rabbits with J8-DT/alum demonstrated that an increase in the dose of J8-DT/alum up to 500ƒÊg does not have an impact on the serum IgG titers achieved. Similar to the immune response in mice, immunization with J8-DT/alum in baboons also established that a 60ƒÊg dose compared to either 30ƒÊg or 120ƒÊg was sufficient to generate a robust immune response. Interestingly, mucosal infection of naive baboons with a M1 GAS strain did not induce a J8-specific serum IgG response. As J8-DT/alum mediated protection has been previously reported to be due to the J8- specific antibody formed, the efficacy of J8-DT antibodies was determined in vitro and in vivo. In vitro opsonization and in vivo passive transfer confirmed the protective potential of J8-DT antibodies. A reduction in the bacterial burden after challenge with a bioluminescent M49 GAS strain in mice that were passively administered J8-DT IgG established that protection due to J8-DT was mediated by antibodies. The GAS burden in infected mice was monitored using bioluminescent imaging in addition to traditional CFU assays. Bioluminescent GAS strains including the ‘rheumatogenic’ M1 GAS could not be generated due to limitations with transformation of GAS, however, a M49 GAS strain was utilized during BLI. The M49 serotype is traditionally a ‘nephritogenic’ serotype associated with post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis. Anti- J8-DT antibodies now have been shown to be protective against multiple GAS strains such as M49 and M1. This study evaluated the immunogenicity of J8-DT/alum in different species of experimental animals in preparation for phase I human clinical trials and provided the ground work for the development of a rapid non-invasive assay for evaluation of vaccine candidates.

Gene transfer to plants by diverse species of bacteria

Agrobacterium is widely considered to be the only bacterial genus capable of transferring genes to plants. When suitably modified, Agrobacterium has become the most effective vector for gene transfer in plant biotechnology1. However, the complexity of the patent landscape2 has created both real and perceived obstacles to the effective use of this technology for agricultural improvements by many public and private organizations worldwide. Here we show that several species of bacteria outside the Agrobacterium genus can be modified to mediate gene transfer to a number of diverse plants. These plant-associated symbiotic bacteria were made competent for gene transfer by acquisition of both a disarmed Ti plasmid and a suitable binary vector. This alternative to Agrobacterium-mediated technology for crop improvement, in addition to affording a versatile ‘open source’ platform for plant biotechnology, may lead to new uses of natural bacteria– plant interactions to achieve plant transformation.

The application of profluorescent nitroxides to detect reactive oxygen species derived from combustion-generated particulate matter: Cigarette smoke – a case study

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) and related free radicals are considered to be key factors underpinning the various adverse health effects associated with exposure to ambient particulate matter. Therefore, measurement of ROS is a crucial factor for assessing the potential toxicity of particles. In this work, a novel profluorescent nitroxide, BPEAnit, was investigated as a probe for detecting particle-derived ROS. BPEAnit has a very low fluorescence emission due to inherent quenching by the nitroxide group, but upon radical trapping or redox activity, a strong fluorescence is observed. BPEAnit was tested for detection of ROS present in mainstream and sidestream cigarette smoke. In the case of mainstream cigarette smoke, there was a linear increase in fluorescence intensity with an increasing number of cigarette puffs, equivalent to an average of 101 nmol ROS per cigarette based on the number of moles of the probe reacted. Sidestream cigarette smoke sampled from an environmental chamber exposed BPEAnit to much lower concentrations of particles, but still resulted in a clearly detectible increase in fluorescence intensity with sampling time. It was calculated that the amount of ROS was equivalent to 50 ± 2 nmol per mg of particulate matter; however, this value decreased with ageing of the particles in the chamber. Overall, BPEAnit was shown to provide a sensitive response related to the oxidative capacity of the particulate matter. These findings present a good basis for employing the new BPEAnit probe for the investigation of particle-related ROS generated from cigarette smoke as well as from other combustion sources.

Molecular characterisation of six badnavirus species associated with leaf streak disease of banana in East Africa

Banana leaf streak disease, caused by several species of Banana streak virus (BSV), is widespread in East Africa. We surveyed for this disease in Uganda and Kenya, and used rolling-circle amplification (RCA) to detect the presence of BSV in banana. Six distinct badnavirus sequences, three from Uganda and three from Kenya, were amplified for which only partial sequences were previously available. The complete genomes were sequenced and characterised. The size and organisation of all six sequences was characteristic of other badnaviruses, including conserved functional domains present in the putative polyprotein encoded by open reading frame (ORF) 3. Based on nucleotide sequence analysis within the reverse transcriptase/ribonuclease H-coding region of open reading frame 3, we propose that these sequences be recognised as six new species and be designated as Banana streak UA virus, Banana streak UI virus, Banana streak UL virus, Banana streak UM virus, Banana streak CA virus and Banana streak IM virus. Using PCR and species-specific primers to test for the presence of integrated sequences, we demonstrated that sequences with high similarity to BSIMV only were present in several banana cultivars which had tested negative for episomal BSV sequences.