221 resultados para structural models of credit risk


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Introduction. The purpose of this chapter is to address the question raised in the chapter title. Specifically, how can models of motor control help us understand low back pain (LBP)? There are several classes of models that have been used in the past for studying spinal loading, stability, and risk of injury (see Reeves and Cholewicki (2003) for a review of past modeling approaches), but for the purpose of this chapter we will focus primarily on models used to assess motor control and its effect on spine behavior. This chapter consists of 4 sections. The first section discusses why a shift in modeling approaches is needed to study motor control issues. We will argue that the current approach for studying the spine system is limited and not well-suited for assessing motor control issues related to spine function and dysfunction. The second section will explore how models can be used to gain insight into how the central nervous system (CNS) controls the spine. This segues segue nicely into the next section that will address how models of motor control can be used in the diagnosis and treatment of LBP. Finally, the last section will deal with the issue of model verification and validity. This issue is important since modelling accuracy is critical for obtaining useful insight into the behavior of the system being studied. This chapter is not intended to be a critical review of the literature, but instead intended to capture some of the discussion raised during the 2009 Spinal Control Symposium, with some elaboration on certain issues. Readers interested in more details are referred to the cited publications.

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This article describes a Matlab toolbox for parametric identification of fluid-memory models associated with the radiation forces ships and offshore structures. Radiation forces are a key component of force-to-motion models used in simulators, motion control designs, and also for initial performance evaluation of wave-energy converters. The software described provides tools for preparing non-parmatric data and for identification with automatic model-order detection. The identification problem is considered in the frequency domain.

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Software engineers constantly deal with problems of designing, analyzing, and improving process specifications, e.g., source code, service compositions, or process models. Process specifications are abstractions of behavior observed or intended to be implemented in reality which result from creative engineering practice. Usually, process specifications are formalized as directed graphs in which edges capture temporal relations between decisions, synchronization points, and work activities. Every process specification is a compromise between two points: On the one hand engineers strive to operate with less modeling constructs which conceal irrelevant details, while on the other hand the details are required to achieve the desired level of customization for envisioned process scenarios. In our research, we approach the problem of varying abstraction levels of process specifications. Formally, developed abstraction mechanisms exploit the structure of a process specification and allow the generalization of low-level details into concepts of a higher abstraction level. The reverse procedure can be addressed as process specialization.

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Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) has widely been used in hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, possibly due to disruption of androgen receptor (AR) signaling. In contrast, the synthetic HRT Tibolone does not increase breast density, and is rapidly metabolized to estrogenic 3α-OH-tibolone and 3β-OH-tibolone, and a delta-4 isomer (Δ4-TIB) that has both androgenic and progestagenic properties. Here, we show that 5α-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and Δ4-TIB, but not MPA, stabilize AR protein levels, initiate specific AR intramolecular interactions critical for AR transcriptional regulation, and increase proliferation of AR positive MDA-MB-453 breast cancer cells. Structural modeling and molecular dynamic simulation indicate that Δ4-TIB induces a more stable AR structure than does DHT, and MPA a less stable one. Microarray expression analyses confirms that the molecular actions of Δ4-TIB more closely resembles DHT in breast cancer cells than either ligand does to MPA.

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This study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and (1) neck symptoms and (2) neck pain and disability as measured by the neck disability index (NDI). Female office workers employed in local private and public organizations were invited to participate, with 333 completing a questionnaire. Data were collected on various risk factors including age, negative affectivity, history of previous neck trauma, physical work environment, and task demands. Sixty-one percent of the sample reported neck symptoms lasting greater than 8 days in the last 12 months. The mean NDI of the sample was 15.5 out of 100, indicating mild neck pain and disability. In a hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, low supervisor support was the only psychosocial risk factor identified with the presence of neck symptoms. Similarly, low supervisor support was the only factor associated with the score on the NDI. These associations remained after adjustment for potential confounders of age, negative affectivity, and physical risk factors. The interaction of job demands, decision authority, and supervisor support was significantly associated with the NDI in the final model and this association increased when those with previous trauma were excluded. Interestingly, and somewhat contrary to initial expectations, as job demands increased, high decision authority had an increasing effect on the NDI when supervisor support was low.

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Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

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Objective To describe women’s reports of the model of care options General Practitioners (GPs) discussed with them at the first pregnancy consultation and women’s self-reported role in decisionmaking about model of care. Methods Women who had recently given birth responded to survey items about the models of care GPs discussed, their role in final decision-making, and socio-demographic, obstetric history, and early pregnancy characteristics. Results The proportion of women with whom each model of care was discussed varied between 8.2% (for private midwifery care with home birth) and 64.4% (GP shared care). Only 7.7% of women reported that all seven models were discussed. Exclusive discussion about private obstetric care and about all public models was common, and women’s health insurance status was the strongest predictor of the presence of discussions about each model. Most women (82.6%) reported active involvement in final decision-making about model of care. Conclusion Although most women report involvement in maternity model of care decisions, they remain largely uninformed about the breadth of available model of care options. Practical implications Strategies that facilitate women’s access to information on the differentiating features and outcomes for all models of care should be prioritized to better ensure equitable and quality decisions.

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A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

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Finite element (FE) model studies have made important contributions to our understanding of functional biomechanics of the lumbar spine. However, if a model is used to answer clinical and biomechanical questions over a certain population, their inherently large inter-subject variability has to be considered. Current FE model studies, however, generally account only for a single distinct spinal geometry with one set of material properties. This raises questions concerning their predictive power, their range of results and on their agreement with in vitro and in vivo values. Eight well-established FE models of the lumbar spine (L1-5) of different research centres around the globe were subjected to pure and combined loading modes and compared to in vitro and in vivo measurements for intervertebral rotations, disc pressures and facet joint forces. Under pure moment loading, the predicted L1-5 rotations of almost all models fell within the reported in vitro ranges, and their median values differed on average by only 2° for flexion-extension, 1° for lateral bending and 5° for axial rotation. Predicted median facet joint forces and disc pressures were also in good agreement with published median in vitro values. However, the ranges of predictions were larger and exceeded those reported in vitro, especially for the facet joint forces. For all combined loading modes, except for flexion, predicted median segmental intervertebral rotations and disc pressures were in good agreement with measured in vivo values. In light of high inter-subject variability, the generalization of results of a single model to a population remains a concern. This study demonstrated that the pooled median of individual model results, similar to a probabilistic approach, can be used as an improved predictive tool in order to estimate the response of the lumbar spine.

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We present a machine learning model that predicts a structural disruption score from a protein s primary structure. SCHEMA was introduced by Frances Arnold and colleagues as a method for determining putative recombination sites of a protein on the basis of the full (PDB) description of its structure. The present method provides an alternative to SCHEMA that is able to determine the same score from sequence data only. Circumventing the need for resolving the full structure enables the exploration of yet unresolved and even hypothetical sequences for protein design efforts. Deriving the SCHEMA score from a primary structure is achieved using a two step approach: first predicting a secondary structure from the sequence and then predicting the SCHEMA score from the predicted secondary structure. The correlation coefficient for the prediction is 0.88 and indicates the feasibility of replacing SCHEMA with little loss of precision.

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Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

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Tumour microenvironment greatly influences the development and metastasis of cancer progression. The development of three dimensional (3D) culture models which mimic that displayed in vivo can improve cancer biology studies and accelerate novel anticancer drug screening. Inspired by a systems biology approach, we have formed 3D in vitro bioengineered tumour angiogenesis microenvironments within a glycosaminoglycan-based hydrogel culture system. This microenvironment model can routinely recreate breast and prostate tumour vascularisation. The multiple cell types cultured within this model were less sensitive to chemotherapy when compared with two dimensional (2D) cultures, and displayed comparative tumour regression to that displayed in vivo. These features highlight the use of our in vitro culture model as a complementary testing platform in conjunction with animal models, addressing key reduction and replacement goals of the future. We anticipate that this biomimetic model will provide a platform for the in-depth analysis of cancer development and the discovery of novel therapeutic targets.

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Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.