Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

ERP success: Does organisation size matter?

Organisations invest enormous sums of money in acquiring Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, presumably expecting positive impacts to the organisation and its functions. Despite the optimistic motives some ERP projects have reported nil or detrimental impacts. This paper studies the proposition that the size of an organisation (e.g. small, large) may have contributed to the differences in receiving benefits reported in prior studies in this domain. The alleged differences in organisational performance are empirically measured using a prior validated model, using five constructs and fortytwo sub-constructs. Information is gathered from three hundred and ten respondents representing twenty-seven public sector organisations. Results suggests that (1) larger organisations have received more benefits compared to small organisations, (2) small organisations demonstrated higher reliance on their ERP systems, (3) employment cohorts demonstrate significant differences in perceived benefits in small and large organisations.

Characterization of expiration air jets and droplet size distributions immediately at the mouth opening

Size distributions of expiratory droplets expelled during coughing and speaking and the velocities of the expiration air jets of healthy volunteers were measured. Droplet size was measured using the Interferometric Mie imaging (IMI) technique while the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique was used for measuring air velocity. These techniques allowed measurements in close proximity to the mouth and avoided air sampling losses. The average expiration air velocity was 11.7 m/s for coughing and 3.9 m/s for speaking. Under the experimental setting, evaporation and condensation effects had negligible impact on the measured droplet size. The geometric mean diameter of droplets from coughing was 13.5m and it was 16.0m for speaking (counting 1 to 100). The estimated total number of droplets expelled ranged from 947 – 2085 per cough and 112 – 6720 for speaking. The estimated droplet concentrations for coughing ranged from 2.4 - 5.2cm-3 per cough and 0.004 – 0.223 cm-3 for speaking.

Size distribution and sites of origin of droplets expelled during expiratory activities

A new Expiratory Droplet Investigation System (EDIS) was used to conduct the most comprehensive program of study to date, of the dilution corrected droplet size distributions produced during different respiratory activities.----- Distinct physiological processes were responsible for specific size distribution modes. The majority of particles for all activities were produced in one or more modes, with diameters below 0.8 µm. That mode occurred during all respiratory activities, including normal breathing. A second mode at 1.8 µm was produced during all activities, but at lower concentrations.----- Speech produced particles in modes near 3.5 µm and 5 µm. The modes became most pronounced during continuous vocalization, suggesting that the aerosolization of secretions lubricating the vocal chords is a major source of droplets in terms of number.----- Non-eqilibrium droplet evaporation was not detectable for particles between 0.5 and 20 μm implying that evaporation to the equilibrium droplet size occurred within 0.8 s.

Manufacturing challenges with fabrication of large size mechanical harmonic drives

In truck manufacturing, the exhaust and air inlet pipes are specialized equipment that requires highly skilled, heavy machinery and small batch production methods. This paper describes a project to develop the computer numerically controlled (CNC) pipe bending process for a truck component manufacturer. The company supplies a huge range of heavy duty truck parts to the domestic market and is a significant supplier in Australia. The company has been using traditional methods of machine assisted manual pipe bending techniques. In a drive of continuous improvement, the company has acquired a pre-owned CNC bending machine capable of bending pipes automatically up to 25 bends. However, due to process mismatch, this machine is only used for single bending operation. The researchers studied the bending system and changed the manufacturing process. Using an example exhaust pipe as the benchmark, a significant drop of manufacturing lead time from 70 minutes to 40 minutes for each pipe was demonstrated. There was also a decrease of material cost due to the multiple bends part in one piece without cutting excessive materials for each single bend like it used to be.

Manufacturing challenges with fabrication of large size mechanical harmonic drives

Mechanical harmonic transmissions are relatively new kind of drives having several unusual features. For example, they can provide reduction ratio up to 500:1 in one stage, have very small teeth module compared to conventional drives and very large number of teeth (up to 1000) on a flexible gear. If for conventional drives manufacturing methods are well-developed, fabrication of large size harmonic drives presents a challenge. For example, how to fabricate a thin shell of 1.7m in diameter and wall thickness of 30mm having high precision external teeth at one end and internal splines at the other end? It is so flexible that conventional fabrication methods become unsuitable. In this paper special fabrication methods are discussed that can be used for manufacturing of large size harmonic drive components. They include electro-slag welding and refining, the use of special expandable devices to locate and hold a flexible gear, welding peripheral parts of disks with wear resistant materials with subsequent machining and others. These fabrication methods proved to be effective and harmonic drives built with the use of these innovative technologies have been installed on heavy metallurgical equipment and successfully tested.

Diversity of accuracy profiles for absolute pitch recognition

Most advanced musicians are able to identify and label a heard pitch if given an opportunity to compare it to a known reference note. This is called ‘relative pitch’ (RP). A much rarer skill is the ability to identify and label a heard pitch without the need for a reference. This is colloquially referred to as ‘perfect pitch’, but appears in the academic literature as ‘absolute pitch’ (AP). AP is considered by many as a remarkable skill. As people do not seem able to develop it intentionally, it is generally regarded as innate. It is often seen as a unitary skill and that a set of identifiable criteria can distinguish those who possess the skill from those who do not. However, few studies have interrogated these notions. The present study developed and applied an interactive computer program to map pitch-labelling responses to various tonal stimuli without a known reference tone available to participants. This approach enabled the identification of the elements of sound that impacted on AP. Pitch-labelling responses of 14 participants with AP were recorded for their accuracy. Each participant’s response to the stimuli was unique. Their accuracy of labelling varied across dimensions such as timbre, range and tonality. The diversity of performance between individuals appeared to reflect their personal musical experience histories.

HVAC system size – getting it right

There is evidence that many heating, ventilating & air conditioning (HVAC) systems, installed in larger buildings, have more capacity than is ever required to keep the occupants comfortable. This paper explores the reasons why this can occur, by examining a typical brief/design/documentation process. Over-sized HVAC systems cost more to install and operate and may not be able to control thermal comfort as well as a “right-sized” system. These impacts are evaluated, where data exists. Finally, some suggestions are developed to minimise both the extent of, and the negative impacts of, HVAC system over-sizing, for example: • Challenge “rules of thumb” and/or brief requirements which may be out of date. • Conduct an accurate load estimate, using AIRAH design data, specific to project location, and then resist the temptation to apply “safety factors • Use a load estimation program that accounts for thermal storage and diversification of peak loads for each zone and air handling system. • Select chiller sizes and staged or variable speed pumps and fans to ensure good part load performance. • Allow for unknown future tenancies by designing flexibility into the system, not by over-sizing. For example, generous sizing of distribution pipework and ductwork will allow available capacity to be redistributed. • Provide an auxiliary tenant condenser water loop to handle high load areas. • Consider using an Integrated Design Process, build an integrated load and energy use simulation model and test different operational scenarios • Use comprehensive Life Cycle Cost analysis for selection of the most optimal design solutions. This paper is an interim report on the findings of CRC-CI project 2002-051-B, Right-Sizing HVAC Systems, which is due for completion in January 2006.

Crowd Counting Using Multiple Local Features

In public venues, crowd size is a key indicator of crowd safety and stability. Crowding levels can be detected using holistic image features, however this requires a large amount of training data to capture the wide variations in crowd distribution. If a crowd counting algorithm is to be deployed across a large number of cameras, such a large and burdensome training requirement is far from ideal. In this paper we propose an approach that uses local features to count the number of people in each foreground blob segment, so that the total crowd estimate is the sum of the group sizes. This results in an approach that is scalable to crowd volumes not seen in the training data, and can be trained on a very small data set. As a local approach is used, the proposed algorithm can easily be used to estimate crowd density throughout different regions of the scene and be used in a multi-camera environment. A unique localised approach to ground truth annotation reduces the required training data is also presented, as a localised approach to crowd counting has different training requirements to a holistic one. Testing on a large pedestrian database compares the proposed technique to existing holistic techniques and demonstrates improved accuracy, and superior performance when test conditions are unseen in the training set, or a minimal training set is used.