Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviation fuel from microalgae,Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane

Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviatin fuels has not been widely considered, despite the increasing global attention that the field has received. We present three process models for production of aviation fuel from microalgae, Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane molasses. The models and assumptions have been deposited on a wiki (http://qsafi.aibn.uq.edu.au) and are open and accessible to the community. Based on currently available long-term reputable technological data, this analysis indicates that the biorefinieries processing the microalgae, Pongamia seeds, and sugarcane feedstocks would be competitive with crude oil at $1343, $374, and $301/bbl, respectively. Sensitivity analyses of the major economic drivers suggest technological and market developments that would bring the corresponding figures down to $385, $255, and $168/bbl. The dynamic nature of the freely accessible models will allow the community to track progress toward economic competitiveness of aviation fuels from these renewable feedstocks.

Tailored interventions based on sputum eosinophils versus clinical symptoms for asthma in children and adults

BACKGROUND Asthma severity and control can be measured both subjectively and objectively. Sputum analysis for evaluation of percentage of sputum eosinophilia directly measures airway inflammation, and is one method of objectively monitoring asthma. Interventions for asthma therapies have been traditionally based on symptoms and spirometry. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the efficacy of tailoring asthma interventions based on sputum analysis in comparison to clinical symptoms (with or without spirometry/peak flow) for asthma related outcomes in children and adults. SEARCH STRATEGY We searched the Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and reference lists of articles. The last search was on 31 October 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA All randomised controlled comparisons of adjustment of asthma therapy based on sputum eosinophils compared to traditional methods (primarily clinical symptoms and spirometry/peak flow). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Results of searches were reviewed against pre-determined criteria for inclusion. Three sets of reviewers selected relevant studies.Two review authors independently assessed trial quality extracted data. Authors were contacted for further information but none were received. Data was analysed as "treatment received" and sensitivity analyses performed. MAIN RESULTS Three adult studies were included; these studies were clinically and methodologically heterogenous (use of medications, cut off for percentage of sputum eosinophils and definition of asthma exacerbation). There were no eligible paediatric studies. Of 246 participants randomised, 221 completed the trials. In the meta-analysis, a significant reduction in number of participants who had one or more asthma exacerbations occurred when treatment was based on sputum eosinophils in comparison to clinical symptoms; pooled odds ratio (OR) was 0.49 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.87); number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) was 6 (95% CI 4 to 32).There were also differences between groups in the rate of exacerbation (any exacerbation per year) and severity of exacerbations defined by requirement for use of oral corticosteroids but the reduction in hospitalisations was not statistically significant. Data for clinical symptoms, quality of life and spirometry were not significantly different between groups. The mean dose of inhaled corticosteroids per day was similar in both groups and no adverse events were reported. However sputum induction was not always possible. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Tailored asthma interventions based on sputum eosinophils is beneficial in reducing the frequency of asthma exacerbations in adults with asthma. This review supports the use of sputum eosinophils to tailor asthma therapy for adults with frequent exacerbations and severe asthma. Further studies need to be undertaken to strengthen these results and no conclusion can be drawn for children with asthma.

A systematic review and meta-analysis : tailoring asthma treatment on eosinophilic markers (exhaled nitric oxide or sputum eosinophils)

Asthma severity and control can be measured both subjectively and objectively. Traditionally asthma treatments have been individualised using symptoms and spirometry/peak flow. Increasingly treatment tailored in accordance with inflammatory markers (sputum eosinophil counts or fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) data) is advocated as an alternative strategy. The objective of this review was to evaluate the efficacy of tailoring asthma interventions based on inflammatory markers (sputum analysis and FeNO) in comparison with clinical symptoms (with or without spirometry/peak flow) for asthma-related outcomes in children and adults. Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and reference lists of articles were searched. The last searches were in February 2009. All randomised controlled comparisons of adjustment of asthma treatment based on sputum analysis or FeNO compared with traditional methods (primarily clinical symptoms and spirometry/peak flow) were selected. Results of searches were reviewed against predetermined criteria for inclusion. Relevant studies were selected, assessed and data extracted independently by at least two people. The trial authors were contacted for further information. Data were analysed as 'intervention received' and sensitivity analyses performed. Six (2 adults and 4 children/adolescent) studies utilising FeNO and three adult studies utilising sputum eosinophils were included. These studies had a degree of clinical heterogeneity including definition of asthma exacerbations, duration of study and variations in cut-off levels for percentage of sputum eosinophils and FeNO to alter management in each study. Adults who had treatment adjusted according to sputum eosinophils had a reduced number of exacerbations compared with the control group (52 vs. 77 patients with >=1 exacerbation in the study period; p=0.0006). There was no significant difference in exacerbations between groups for FeNO compared with controls. The daily dose of inhaled corticosteroids at the end of the study was decreased in adults whose treatment was based on FeNO in comparison with the control group (mean difference -450.03 mug, 95% CI -676.73 to -223.34; p<0.0001). However, children who had treatment adjusted according to FeNO had an increase in their mean daily dose of inhaled corticosteroids (mean difference 140.18 mug, 95% CI 28.94 to 251.42; p=0.014). It was concluded that tailoring of asthma treatment based on sputum eosinophils is effective in decreasing asthma exacerbations. However, tailoring of asthma treatment based on FeNO levels has not been shown to be effective in improving asthma outcomes in children and adults. At present, there is insufficient justification to advocate the routine use of either sputum analysis (due to technical expertise required) or FeNO in everyday clinical practice.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a telephone-linked care intervention for individuals with Type 2 diabetes

AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of an automated telephone-linked care intervention, Australian TLC Diabetes, delivered over 6 months to patients with established Type 2 diabetes mellitus and high glycated haemoglobin level, compared to usual care. METHODS: A Markov model was designed to synthesize data from a randomized controlled trial of TLC Diabetes (n=120) and other published evidence. The 5-year model consisted of three health states related to glycaemic control: 'sub-optimal' HbA1c ≥58mmol/mol (7.5%); 'average' ≥48-57mmol/mol (6.5-7.4%) and 'optimal' <48mmol/mol (6.5%) and a fourth state 'all-cause death'. Key outcomes of the model include discounted health system costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYS) using SF-6D utility weights. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: Annual medication costs for the intervention group were lower than usual care [Intervention: £1076 (95%CI: £947, £1206) versus usual care £1271 (95%CI: £1115, £1428) p=0.052]. The estimated mean cost for intervention group participants over five years, including the intervention cost, was £17,152 versus £17,835 for the usual care group. The corresponding mean QALYs were 3.381 (SD 0.40) for the intervention group and 3.377 (SD 0.41) for the usual care group. Results were sensitive to the model duration, utility values and medication costs. CONCLUSION: The Australian TLC Diabetes intervention was a low-cost investment for individuals with established diabetes and may result in medication cost-savings to the health system. Although QALYs were similar between groups, other benefits arising from the intervention should also be considered when determining the overall value of this strategy.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence : systematic review and meta-analysis

A systematic literature review and a comprehensive meta-analysis that combines the findings from existing studies, was conducted in this thesis to analyse the impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the quality, publication bias and outlier bias of the various studies, and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were considered. Based on this comprehensive and systematic review, and the results of the subsequent meta-analysis, major issues in study design, traffic and crash data, and model development and evaluation are discussed.

Mortality attributable to smoking in Vietnamese men in 2008

Objective Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies. Method We used the Peto–Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses. Results When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24–31%) of all adult male deaths (> 35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21–26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23–28%)]. Conclusion Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Cardiovascular disease is increased prior to onset of rheumatoid arthritis but not osteoarthritis: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT)

Introduction: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. We sought to test the hypothesis that due to increased inflammation, CV disease and risk factors are associated with increased risk of future RA development. Methods: The population-based Nord-Trøndelag health surveys (HUNT) were conducted among the entire adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway. All inhabitants 20 years or older were invited, and information was collected through comprehensive questionnaires, a clinical examination, and blood samples. In a cohort design, data from HUNT2 (1995-1997, baseline) and HUNT3 (2006-2008, follow-up) were obtained to study participants with RA (n = 786) or osteoarthritis (n = 3,586) at HUNT3 alone, in comparison with individuals without RA or osteoarthritis at both times (n = 33,567). Results: Female gender, age, smoking, body mass index, and history of previous CV disease were associated with self-reported incident RA (previous CV disease: odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.11-2.07). The findings regarding previous CV disease were confirmed in sensitivity analyses excluding participants with psoriasis (odds ratio (OR) 1.70 (1.23-2.36)) or restricting the analysis to cases with a hospital diagnosis of RA (OR 1.90 (1.10-3.27)) or carriers of the shared epitope (OR 1.76 (1.13-2.74)). History of previous CV disease was not associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis (OR 1.04 (0.86-1.27)). Conclusion: A history of previous CV disease was associated with increased risk of incident RA but not osteoarthritis.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: Evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1–36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking. Objective To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England. Data sources Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases – including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases – were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references. Review methods References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI. Results Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data. Conclusions Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

An explicit finite element modelling method for masonry walls under out-of-plane loading

An explicit finite element modelling method is formulated using a layered shell element to examine the behaviour of masonry walls subject to out-of-plane loading. Masonry is modelled as a homogenised material with distinct directional properties that are calibrated from datasets of a “C” shaped wall tested under pressure loading applied to its web. The predictions of the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. Profound influence of support conditions, aspect ratio, pre-compression and opening to the strength and ductility of masonry walls is exhibited from the sensitivity analyses performed using the model.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary care setting. The primary care professional refers the patient to a third party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the patient. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of ERS in promoting physical activity compared with usual care in primary care setting. Methods A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ERS from a UK NHS perspective. The costs and outcomes of ERS were modelled over the patient's lifetime. Data were derived from a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ERS, and on parameter inputs in the modelling framework. Outcomes were expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of varying ERS cost and effectiveness assumptions. Sub-group analyses explored the cost-effectiveness of ERS in sedentary people with an underlying condition. Results Compared with usual care, the mean incremental lifetime cost per patient for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, generating a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ERS at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary individuals without a diagnosed medical condition. There was a 51% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY and 88% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY. In sub-group analyses, cost per QALY for ERS in sedentary obese individuals was £14,618, and in sedentary hypertensives and sedentary individuals with depression the estimated cost per QALY was £12,834 and £8,414 respectively. Incremental lifetime costs and benefits associated with ERS were small, reflecting the preventative public health context of the intervention, with this resulting in estimates of cost-effectiveness that are sensitive to variations in the relative risk of becoming physically active and cost of ERS. Conclusions ERS is associated with modest increase in lifetime costs and benefits. The cost-effectiveness of ERS is highly sensitive to small changes in the effectiveness and cost of ERS and is subject to some significant uncertainty mainly due to limitations in the clinical effectiveness evidence base.

Intensive versus conventional glycaemic control for treating diabetic foot ulcers

Background The estimated likelihood of lower limb amputation is 10 to 30 times higher amongst people with diabetes compared to those without diabetes. Of all non-traumatic amputations in people with diabetes, 85% are preceded by a foot ulcer. Foot ulceration associated with diabetes (diabetic foot ulcers) is caused by the interplay of several factors, most notably diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and changes in foot structure. These factors have been linked to chronic hyperglycaemia (high levels of glucose in the blood) and the altered metabolic state of diabetes. Control of hyperglycaemia may be important in the healing of ulcers. Objectives To assess the effects of intensive glycaemic control compared to conventional control on the outcome of foot ulcers in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Search methods In December 2015 we searched: The Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register; The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library); Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid MEDLINE (In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations); Ovid EMBASE; EBSCO CINAHL; Elsevier SCOPUS; ISI Web of Knowledge Web of Science; BioMed Central and LILACS. We also searched clinical trial databases, pharmaceutical trial databases and current international and national clinical guidelines on diabetes foot management for relevant published, non-published, ongoing and terminated clinical trials. There were no restrictions based on language or date of publication or study setting. Selection criteria Published, unpublished and ongoing randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were considered for inclusion where they investigated the effects of intensive glycaemic control on the outcome of active foot ulcers in people with diabetes. Non randomised and quasi-randomised trials were excluded. In order to be included the trial had to have: 1) attempted to maintain or control blood glucose levels and measured changes in markers of glycaemic control (HbA1c or fasting, random, mean, home capillary or urine glucose), and 2) documented the effect of these interventions on active foot ulcer outcomes. Glycaemic interventions included subcutaneous insulin administration, continuous insulin infusion, oral anti-diabetes agents, lifestyle interventions or a combination of these interventions. The definition of the interventional (intensive) group was that it should have a lower glycaemic target than the comparison (conventional) group. Data collection and analysis All review authors independently evaluated the papers identified by the search strategy against the inclusion criteria. Two review authors then independently reviewed all potential full-text articles and trials registry results for inclusion. Main results We only identified one trial that met the inclusion criteria but this trial did not have any results so we could not perform the planned subgroup and sensitivity analyses in the absence of data. Two ongoing trials were identified which may provide data for analyses in a later version of this review. The completion date of these trials is currently unknown. Authors' conclusions The current review failed to find any completed randomised clinical trials with results. Therefore we are unable to conclude whether intensive glycaemic control when compared to conventional glycaemic control has a positive or detrimental effect on the treatment of foot ulcers in people with diabetes. Previous evidence has however highlighted a reduction in risk of limb amputation (from various causes) in people with type 2 diabetes with intensive glycaemic control. Whether this applies to people with foot ulcers in particular is unknown. The exact role that intensive glycaemic control has in treating foot ulcers in multidisciplinary care (alongside other interventions targeted at treating foot ulcers) requires further investigation.

Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructures for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part II : Model updating and verification

This paper is a continuation of the paper titled “Concurrent multi-scale modeling of civil infrastructure for analyses on structural deteriorating—Part I: Modeling methodology and strategy” with the emphasis on model updating and verification for the developed concurrent multi-scale model. The sensitivity-based parameter updating method was applied and some important issues such as selection of reference data and model parameters, and model updating procedures on the multi-scale model were investigated based on the sensitivity analysis of the selected model parameters. The experimental modal data as well as static response in terms of component nominal stresses and hot-spot stresses at the concerned locations were used for dynamic response- and static response-oriented model updating, respectively. The updated multi-scale model was further verified to act as the baseline model which is assumed to be finite-element model closest to the real situation of the structure available for the subsequent arbitrary numerical simulation. The comparison of dynamic and static responses between the calculated results by the final model and measured data indicated the updating and verification methods applied in this paper are reliable and accurate for the multi-scale model of frame-like structure. The general procedures of multi-scale model updating and verification were finally proposed for nonlinear physical-based modeling of large civil infrastructure, and it was applied to the model verification of a long-span bridge as an actual engineering practice of the proposed procedures.

EduBuilding: material selection from life cycle costing sensitivity

Life Cycle Cost Analysis provides a form of synopsis of the initial and consequential costs of building related decisions. These cost figures may be implemented to justify higher investments, for example, in the quality or flexibility of building solutions through a long term cost reduction. The emerging discipline of asset mnagement is a promising approach to this problem, because it can do things that techniques such as balanced scorecards and total quantity cannot. Decisions must be made about operating and maintaining infrastructure assets. An injudicious sensitivity of life cycle costing is that the longer something lasts, the less it costs over time. A life cycle cost analysis will be used as an economic evaluation tool and collaborate with various numbers of analyses. LCCA quantifies incurring costs commonly overlooked (by property and asset managers and designs) as replacement and maintenance costs. The purpose of this research is to examine the Life Cycle Cost Analysis on building floor materials. By implementing the life cycle cost analysis, the true cost of each material will be computed projecting 60 years as the building service life and 5.4% as the inflation rate percentage to classify and appreciate the different among the materials. The analysis results showed the high impact in selecting the floor materials according to the potential of service life cycle cost next.