Report : enabling team collaboration with pervasive and mobile computing : cost benefit analysis methodology

Construction is an information intensive industry in which the accuracy and timeliness of information is paramount. It observed that the main communication issue in construction is to provide a method to exchange data between the site operation, the site office and the head office. The information needs under consideration are time critical to assist in maintaining or improving the efficiency at the jobsite. Without appropriate computing support this may increase the difficulty of problem solving. Many researchers focus their research on the usage of mobile computing devices in the construction industry and they believe that mobile computers have the potential to solve some construction problems that leads to reduce overall productivity. However, to date very limited observation has been conducted in terms of the deployment of mobile computers for construction workers on-site. By providing field workers with accurate, reliable and timely information at the location where it is needed, it will support the effectiveness and efficiency at the job site. Bringing a new technology into construction industry is not only need a better understanding of the application, but also need a proper preparation of the allocation of the resources such as people, and investment. With this in mind, an accurate analysis is needed to provide clearly idea of the overall costs and benefits of the new technology. A cost benefit analysis is a method of evaluating the relative merits of a proposed investment project in order to achieve efficient allocation of resources. It is a way of identifying, portraying and assessing the factors which need to be considered in making rational economic choices. In principle, a cost benefit analysis is a rigorous, quantitative and data-intensive procedure, which requires identification all potential effects, categorisation of these effects as costs and benefits, quantitative estimation of the extent of each cost and benefit associated with an action, translation of these into a common metric such as dollars, discounting of future costs and benefits into the terms of a given year, and summary of all cost and benefit to see which is greater. Even though many cost benefit analysis methodologies are available for a general assessment, there is no specific methodology can be applied for analysing the cost and benefit of the application of mobile computing devices in the construction site. Hence, the proposed methodology in this document is predominantly adapted from Baker et al. (2000), Department of Finance (1995), and Office of Investment Management (2005). The methodology is divided into four main stages and then detailed into ten steps. The methodology is provided for the CRC CI 2002-057-C Project: Enabling Team Collaboration with Pervasive and Mobile Computing and can be seen in detail in Section 3.

The role of decision-maker preferences in tenancy selection of CBD office accommodation – preliminary literature review

The literature and anecdotal evidence suggests that that there is more to tenancy selection (firm location) than the profit maximisation drive that traditional neo-classical economic location theory suggests. In the first instance these models assume property markets are rational and perfectly competitive; the CBD office market is clearly neither rational nor perfectly competitive. This fact alone relegates such models to the margins of usefulness for an industry that seeks to satisfy tenant demand in order to optimise returns on capital invested. Acknowledgment of property market imperfections are universally accepted to the extent that all contemporary texts discuss the lack of a coherent centralised market place and incomplete and poorly disseminated information processes as fundamental inadequacies which characterise the property market inefficiencies. Less well researched are the facets of the market which allow the observer to determine market activity to be significantly irrational. One such facet is that of ‘decision maker preferences’. The decision to locate a business operation at one location as opposed to another seems ostensibly a routine choice based on short, medium and long term business objectives. These objectives are derived from a process of strategic planning by one or more individuals whose goal is held to be to optimise outcomes which benefit the business (and presumably those employed within it). However the decision making processes appear bounded by how firms function, the institutional context in which they operate, as well as by opportunistic behaviour by individual decision makers who allow personal preferences to infiltrate and ‘corrupt’ the process. In this way, history, culture, geography, as well as institutions all become significant to the extent that these influence and shape individual behaviour which in turn determine the morphology of individual preferences, as well as providing a conduit for them to take effect. This paper exams historical and current literature on the impact of individual behaviour in the decision making process within organisations as a precursor to an investigation of the tenancy decision making process within the CBD office market. Literature on the topic falls within a number of research disciplines, philosophy, psychology and economics to name a few.

Decolonising the concept of knowledge

Controlling the definition of what was essentially a subjugated culture, the colonisers reserve the power to distinguish authentic aspects of the living traditions of the colonised. If the colonised argue political demands by reference to their culture, the colonisers are quick to adjudicate what is genuine in such claims. (Fannon, 1967) Since colonial invasions, Australia’s Indigenous people have weathered rapid change. While the origins of Australia’s Indigenous peoples continues to be an archaeological interest for many, how Indigenous cultures have survived, transformed and retained a sense of ‘difference’ is fundamental to understanding the diversity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures within this continent as both contemporaneous and historical. It is important that teachers, students and researchers within Indigenous studies remind themselves that much of the literature on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders can be ideologically traced back to the emergence of ‘knowledge’ about native peoples in the context of European imperialism and expansion from the fifteenth century. Care must therefore be taken in not conveying ‘scientific’ rational knowledge as perhaps the hidden agenda or notion of assumptions of European ‘superiority’ and non-European inferiority. The recognition by the High Court of Australia (1992) abandoned the legal myth of terra nullius which based the dispossession of Indigenous land on the basis of it being considered an empty land. It could also be argued that this decision recognised that distinct customs and traditions continue to exist within the social and cultural ‘knowledge’ of Indigenous peoples of Australia. General issues and concerns relating to research design, methodology and articulation within QUT are not just confined to this university and the research project presented as a case study but are important in dealing with how Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander students and academics participate or are employed within the university. We feel that the design and methodology of research that either covertly or overtly focuses on Indigenous Australians can no longer presume that all research will naturally follow protocols that are culturally appropriate as this appropriateness is usually defined by the institution. By no means do we feel that research should be debilitated as a result of raising these issues, but that collaborative approaches within the ‘process’ of research will address Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities as much as the intended outcomes of research itself.

Self-talk in upper primary school children : its relationship with irrational beliefs, self-esteem and depression

Self-talk, irrational beliefs, self-esteem and depression were measured in a sample of 105 elementary school children in Grades 4 to 7. Sex and grade differences in positive self-talk were found. The pattern of correlation coefficients for positive self-talk supported the substantive position that positive self-talk is positively related to self-esteem and negatively related to irrational beliefs and depression in a non-clinical sample of children. However, the same support was not forthcoming for the reverse relationships for negative self-talk. Therapeutic implications are outlined as are suggestions for future research in the area of children's self-talk.

The PG500 series : novel heparan sulfate mimetics as potent angiogenesis and heparanase inhibitors for cancer therapy

Heparan sulfate mimetics, which we have called the PG500 series, have been developed to target the inhibition of both angiogenesis and heparanase activity. This series extends the technology underpinning PI-88, a mixture of highly sulfated oligosaccharides which reached Phase III clinical development for hepatocellular carcinoma. Advances in the chemistry of the PG500 series provide numerous advantages over PI-88. These new compounds are fully sulfated, single entity oligosaccharides attached to a lipophilic moiety, which have been optimized for drug development. The rational design of these compounds has led to vast improvements in potency compared to PI-88, based on in vitro angiogenesis assays and in vivo tumor models. Based on these and other data, PG545 has been selected as the lead clinical candidate for oncology and is currently undergoing formal preclinical development as a novel treatment for advanced cancer.

A phenomenological explication of dream interpretation among rural and urban Nguni people

Psychologists investigating dreams in non-Western cultures have generally not considered the meanings of dreams within the unique meaning-structure of the person in his or her societal context. The majority of dream studies in African societies are no exception. Researchers approaching dreams within rural Xhosa and Zulu speaking societies have either adopted an anthropological or a psychodynamic orientation. The latter approach particularly imposes a Western perspective in the interpretation of dream material. There have been no comparable studies of dream interpretation among urban blacks participating in the African Independent Church Movement. The present study focuses on the rural Xhosa speaking people and the urban black population who speak one of the Nguni languages and identify with the African Independent Church Movement. The study is concerned with understanding the meanings of dreams within the cultural context in which they occur. The specific aims of the study are: 1. To explicate the indigenous system of dream interpretation as revealed by acknowledged dream experts. 2. To examine the commonalities and the differences between the interpretation of dreams in two groups, drawn from a rural and urban setting respectively. 3. To elaborate upon the life-world of the participants by the interpretations gained from the above investigation. One hundred dreams and interpretations are collected from two categories of participants referred to as the Rural Group and the Urban Group. The Rural Group is made up of amagqira [traditional healers] and their clients, while the Urban Group consists of prophets and members of the African Independent Churches. Each group includes acknowledged dream experts. A phenomenological methodology is adopted in explicating the data. The methodological precedure involves a number of rigorous stages of expl ication whereby the original data is reduced to Constituent Profiles leading to the construction of a Thematic Index File. By searching and reflect ing upon the data, interpretative themes are identified. These themes are explicated to provide a rigorous description of the interpretative-reality of each group. Themes explicated w i thin the Rural Group are: the physiognomy of the dreamer's life-world as revealed by ithongo, the interpretation of ithongo as revealed through action, the dream relationship as an anticipatory mode-of-existence, iphupha as disclosing a vulnerable mode-of-being, human bodiliness as revealed in dream interpretations and the legitimation of the interpretative-reality within the life-world. Themes explicated within the Urban Group are: the phys iognomy of the dreamer's life-world revealed in their dream-existence, the interpretative-reality revealed through the enaction of dreams, tension between the newer Christian-based cosomology and the traditional cultural-based cosmology, a moral imperative, prophetic perception and human bodiliness, as revealed in dream interpretations and the legitimation of the interpretative-reality within the life-world. The essence of the interpretative-reality of both groups is very similar and is expressed in the notion of relatedness to a cosmic mode-of-being. The cosmic mode-of-being includes a numinous dimension which is expressed through divine presence in the form of ancestors, Holy Spirit or God. These notions cannot be apprehended by theoretical constructs alone but may be grasped and given form in meaning-disclosing intuitions which are expressed in the lifeworld in terms of bodiliness, revelatory knowledge, action and healing. Some differences b e tween the two groups are evident and reveal some conflict between the monotheistic Christian cosmology and the traditional cosmology. Unique aspects of the interpetative-reality of the Urban Group are expressed in terms of difficulties in the urban social environment and the notion of a moral imperative. It is observed that cul tural self-expression based upon traditional ideas continues to play a significant role in the urban environment. The apparent conflict revealed between the respective cosmologies underlies an integration of the aditional meanings with Christian concepts. This finding is consistent with the literature suggesting that the African Independent Church is a syncretic movement. The life-world is based upon the immediate and vivid experience of the numinous as revealed in the dream phenomenon. The participants' approach to dreams is not based upon an explicit theory, but upon an immediate and pathic understanding of the dream phenomenon. The understanding is based upon the interpreter's concrete understanding of the life-world, which includes the possibility of cosmic integration and continuity between the personal and transpersonal realms of being. The approach is characterized as an expression of man's primordial attunement with the cosmos. The approach of the participants to dreams may not b e consistent with a Western rational orientation, but neverthele ss, it is a valid approach . The validity is based upon the immediate life-world of experience which is intelligible, coherent, and above all, it is meaning-giving in revealing life-possibility within the context of human existence.

Introduction

The title of this book, Hard Lesson: Reflections on Crime control in Late Modernity, contains a number of clues about its general theoretical direction. It is a book concerned, fist and foremost, with the vagaries of crime control in western neo-liberal and English speaking countries. More specifically, Hard Lessons draws attention to a number of examples in which discrete populations – those who have in one way or another offended against the criminal law - have become the subjects of various forms of stare intervention, regulation and control. We are concerned most of all with the ways in which recent criminal justice policies and practices have resulted in what are variously described as unintended consequences, unforeseen outcomes, unanticipated results, counter-productive effects or negative side effects. At their simplest, such terms refer to the apparent gulf between intention and outcome; they often form the basis for considerable amount of policy reappraisal, soul searching and even nihilistic despair among the mamandirns of crime control. Unintended consequences can, of course, be both positive and negative. Occasionally, crime control measures may result in beneficial outcomes, such as the use of DNA to acquit wrongly convicted prisoners. Generally, however, unforeseen effects tend to be negative and even entirely counterproductive, and/or directly opposite to what were originally intended. All this, of course, presupposes some sort of rational, well meaning and transparent policy making process so beloved by liberal social policy theorists. Yet, as Judith Bessant points out in her chapter, this view of policy formulation tends to obscure the often covert, regulatory and downright malevolent intentions contained in many government policies and practices. Indeed, history is replete with examples of governments seeking to mask their real aims from a prying public eye. Denials and various sorts of ‘techniques of neutralisation’ serve to cloak the real or ‘underlying’ aims of the powerful (Cohen 2000). The latest crop of ‘spin doctors’ and ‘official spokespersons’ has ensured that the process of governmental obfuscation, distortion and concealment remains deeply embedded in neo-liberal forms of governance. There is little new or surprising in this; nor should we be shocked when things ‘go wrong’ in the domain of crime control since many unintended consequences are, more often than not, quite predictable. Prison riots, high rates of recidivism and breaches of supervision orders, expansion rather than contraction of control systems, laws that create the opposite of what was intended – all these are normative features of western crime control. Indeed, without the deep fault lines running between policy and outcome it would be hard to imagine what many policy makers, administrators and practitioners would do: their day to day work practices and (and incomes) are directly dependent upon emergent ‘service delivery’ problems. Despite recurrent howls of official anguish and occasional despondency it is apparent that those involved in the propping up the apparatus of crime control have a vested interest in ensuring that polices and practices remain in an enduring state of review and reform.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Empirically validated interventions for adult disorders

The movement toward evidence-based practice in psychology and medicine should offer few problems in cognitive-behavior therapies because it is consistent with the principles by which they have been developed and disseminated. However, the criteria for assessing empirical status, including the heavy emphasis on manualized treatments, need close examination. A possible outcome of the evidence-based movement would be to focus on the application of manualized treatments in both training and clinical practice; problems with that approach are discussed. Commitment to evidence-based treatment should also include comparisons between psychological and pharmacological interventions, so that rational health care decisions can be made. Psychologists should not be afraid of following the evidence, even when it supports treatments that are not cognitive-behavioral in stated orientation. Such results should be taken as an opportunity for theoretical development and new empirical inquiry rather than be a cause for concern.

Decision support system for contractor pre-qualification : artificial neural network model

The selection criteria for contractor pre-qualification are characterized by the co-existence of both quantitative and qualitative data. The qualitative data is non-linear, uncertain and imprecise. An ideal decision support system for contractor pre-qualification should have the ability of handling both quantitative and qualitative data, and of mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship of the selection criteria, such that rational and consistent decisions can be made. In this research paper, an artificial neural network model was developed to assist public clients identifying suitable contractors for tendering. The pre-qualification criteria (variables) were identified for the model. One hundred and twelve real pre-qualification cases were collected from civil engineering projects in Hong Kong, and eighty-eight hypothetical pre-qualification cases were also generated according to the “If-then” rules used by professionals in the pre-qualification process. The results of the analysis totally comply with current practice (public developers in Hong Kong). Each pre-qualification case consisted of input ratings for candidate contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification decisions. The training of the neural network model was accomplished by using the developed program, in which a conjugate gradient descent algorithm was incorporated for improving the learning performance of the network. Cross-validation was applied to estimate the generalization errors based on the “re-sampling” of training pairs. The case studies show that the artificial neural network model is suitable for mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship between contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification (disqualification) decisions. The artificial neural network model can be concluded as an ideal alternative for performing the contractor pre-qualification task.

Krylov subspace methods for approximating functions of symmetric positive definite matrices with applications to applied statistics and anomalous diffusion

Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Do strategy choices matter for nascent firms? A study on effectuation and causation impacts on new ventures outcomes

Principal Topic : Nascent entrepreneurship has drawn the attention of scholars in the last few years (Davidsson, 2006, Wagner, 2004). However, most studies have asked why firms are created focussing on questions such as what are the characteristics (Delmar and Davidsson, 2000) and motivations (Carter, Gartner, Shaver & Reynolds, 2004) of nascent entrepreneurs, or what are the success factors in venture creation (Davidsson & Honig; 2003; Delmar and Shane, 2004). In contrast, the question of how companies emerge is still in its infancy. On a theoretical side, effectuation, developed by Sarasvathy (2001) offers one view of the strategies that may be at work during the venture creation process. Causation, the theorized inverse to effectuation, may be described as a rational reasoning method to create a company. After a comprehensive market analysis to discover opportunities, the entrepreneur will select the alternative with the higher expected return and implement it through the use of a business plan. In contrast, effectuation suggests that the future entrepreneur will develop her new venture in a more iterative way by selecting possibilities through flexibility and interaction with the market, affordability of loss of resources and time invested, development of pre-commitments and alliances from stakeholders. Another contrasting point is that causation is ''goal driven'' while an effectual approach is ''mean driven'' (Sarasvathy, 2001) One of the predictions of effectuation theory is effectuation is more likely to be used by entrepreneurs early in the venture creation process (Sarasvathy, 2001). However, this temporal aspect and the impact of the effectuation strategy on the venture outcomes has so far not been systematically and empirically tested on large samples. The reason behind this research gap is twofold. Firstly, few studies collect longitudinal data on emerging ventures at an early enough stage of development to avoid severe survivor bias. Second, the studies that collect such data have not included validated measures of effectuation. The research we are conducting attempts to partially fill this gap by combining an empirical investigation on a large sample of nascent and young firms with the effectuation/causation continuum as a basis (Sarasvathy, 2001). The objectives are to understand the strategies used by the firms during the creation process and measure their impacts on the firm outcomes. Methodology/Key Propositions : This study draws its data from the first wave of the CAUSEE project where 28,383 Australian households were randomly contacted by phone using a specific methodology to capture emerging firms (Davidsson, Steffens, Gordon, Reynolds, 2008). This screening led to the identification of 594 nascent ventures (i.e., firms that are not operating yet) and 514 young firms (i.e., firms that have started operating from 2004) that were willing to participate in the study. Comprehensive phone interviews were conducted with these 1108 ventures. In a likewise comprehensive follow-up 12 months later, 80% of the eligible cases completed the interview. The questionnaire contains specific sections designed to distinguish effectual and causal processes, innovation, gestation activities, business idea changes and ventures outcomes. The effectuation questions are based on the components of effectuation strategy as described by Sarasvathy (2001) namely: flexibility, affordable loss and pre-commitment from stakeholders. Results from two rounds of pre-testing informed the design of the instrument included in the main survey. The first two waves of data have will be used to test and compare the use of effectuation in the venture creation process. To increase the robustness of the results, temporal use of effectuation will be tested both directly and indirectly. 1. By comparing the use of effectuation in nascent and young firms from wave 1 to 2, we will be able to find out how effectuation is affected by time over a 12-month duration and if the stage of venture development has an impact on its use. 2. By comparing nascent ventures early in the creation process versus nascent ventures late in the creation process. Early versus late can be determined with the help of time-stamped gestation activity questions included in the survey. This will help us to determine the change on a small time scale during the creation phase of the venture. 3. By comparing nascent firms to young (already operational) firms. 4. By comparing young firms becoming operational in 2006 with those first becoming operational in 2004. Results and Implications : Wave 1 and 2 data have been completed and wave 2 is currently being checked and 'cleaned'. Analysis work will commence in September, 2009. This paper is expected to contribute to the body of knowledge on effectuation by measuring quantitatively its use and impact on nascent and young firms activities at different stages of their development. In addition, this study will also increase the understanding of the venture creation process by comparing over time nascent and young firms from a large sample of randomly selected ventures. We acknowledge the results from this study will be preliminary and will have to be interpreted with caution as the changes identified may be due to several factors and may not only be attributed to the use/not use of effectuation. Meanwhile, we believe that this study is important to the field of entrepreneurship as it provides some much needed insights on the processes used by nascent and young firms during their creation and early operating stages.

Evolutionary algorithms for sustainable building design

This approach to sustainable design explores the possibility of creating an architectural design process which can iteratively produce optimised and sustainable design solutions. Driven by an evolution process based on genetic algorithms, the system allows the designer to “design the building design generator” rather than to “designs the building”. The design concept is abstracted into a digital design schema, which allows transfer of the human creative vision into the rational language of a computer. The schema is then elaborated into the use of genetic algorithms to evolve innovative, performative and sustainable design solutions. The prioritisation of the project’s constraints and the subsequent design solutions synthesised during design generation are expected to resolve most of the major conflicts in the evaluation and optimisation phases. Mosques are used as the example building typology to ground the research activity. The spatial organisations of various mosque typologies are graphically represented by adjacency constraints between spaces. Each configuration is represented by a planar graph which is then translated into a non-orthogonal dual graph and fed into the genetic algorithm system with fixed constraints and expected performance criteria set to govern evolution. The resultant Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design System is developed by linking the evaluation process with environmental assessment tools to rank the candidate designs. The proposed system generates the concept, the seed, and the schema, and has environmental performance as one of the main criteria in driving optimisation.