Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Flexible high-power multi DC-DC converters for train systems

This thesis reports on the investigations, simulations and analyses of novel power electronics topologies and control strategies. The research is financed by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage (07-09) grant. Therefore, in addition to developing original research and contributing to the available knowledge of power electronics, it also contributes to the design of a DC-DC converter for specific application to the auxiliary power supply in electric trains. Specifically, in this regard, it contributes to the design of a 7.5 kW DC-DC converter for the industrial partner (Schaffler and Associates Ltd) who supported this project. As the thesis is formatted as a ‘thesis by publication’, the contents are organized around published papers. The research has resulted in eleven papers, including seven peer reviewed and published conference papers, one published journal paper, two journal papers accepted for publication and one submitted journal paper (provisionally accepted subject to few changes). In this research, several novel DC-DC converter topologies are introduced, analysed, and tested. The similarity of all of the topologies devised lies in their ‘current circulating’ switching state, which allows them to store some energy in the inductor, as extra inductor current. The stored energy may be applied to enhance the performance of the converter in the occurrence of load current or input voltage disturbances. In addition, when there is an alternating load current, the ability to store energy allows the converter to perform satisfactorily despite frequently and highly varying load current. In this research, the capability of current storage has been utilised to design topologies for specific applications, and the enhancement of the performance of the considered applications has been illustrated. The simplest DC-DC converter topology, which has a ‘current circulating’ switching state, is the Positive Buck-Boost (PBB) converter (also known as the non-inverting Buck-Boost converter). Usually, the topology of the PBB converter is operating as a Buck or a Boost converter in applications with widely varying input voltage or output reference voltage. For example, in electric railways (the application of our industrial partner), the overhead line voltage alternates from 1000VDC to 500VDC and the required regulated voltage is 600VDC. In the course of this research, our industrial partner (Schaffler and Associates Ltd) industrialized a PBB converter–the ‘Mudo converter’–operating at 7.5 kW. Programming the onboard DSP and testing the PBB converter in experimental and nominal power and voltage was part of this research program. In the earlier stages of this research, the advantages and drawbacks of utilization of the ‘current circulating’ switching state in the positive Buck-Boost converter were investigated. In brief, the advantages were found to be robustness against input voltage and current load disturbances, and the drawback was extra conduction and switching loss. Although the robustness against disturbances is desirable for many applications, the price of energy loss must be minimized to attract attention to the utilization of the PBB converter. In further stages of this research, two novel control strategies for different applications were devised to minimise the extra energy loss while the advantages of the positive Buck-Boost converter were fully utilized. The first strategy is Smart Load Controller (SLC) for applications with pre-knowledge or predictability of input voltage and/or load current disturbances. A convenient example of these applications is electric/hybrid cars where a master controller commands all changes in loads and voltage sources. Therefore, the master controller has a pre-knowledge of the load and input voltage disturbances so it can apply the SLC strategy to utilize robustness of the PBB converter. Another strategy aiming to minimise energy loss and maximise the robustness in the face of disturbance is developed to cover applications with unexpected disturbances. This strategy is named Dynamic Hysteresis Band (DHB), and is used to manipulate the hysteresis band height after occurrence of disturbance to reduce dynamics of the output voltage. When no disturbance has occurred, the PBB converter works with minimum inductor current and minimum energy loss. New topologies based on the PBB converter have been introduced to address input voltage disturbances for different onboard applications. The research shows that the performance of applications of symmetrical/asymmetrical multi-level diode-clamped inverters, DC-networks, and linear-assisted RF amplifiers may be enhanced by the utilization of topologies based on the PBB converter. Multi-level diode-clamped inverters have the problem of DC-link voltage balancing when the power factor of their load closes to unity. This research has shown that this problem may be solved with a suitable multi-output DC-DC converter supplying DClink capacitors. Furthermore, the multi-level diode-clamped inverters supplied with asymmetrical DC-link voltages may improve the quality of load voltage and reduce the level of Electromagnetic Interference (EMI). Mathematical analyses and experiments on supplying symmetrical and asymmetrical multi-level inverters by specifically designed multi-output DC-DC converters have been reported in two journal papers. Another application in which the system performance can be improved by utilization of the ‘current circulating’ switching state is linear-assisted RF amplifiers in communicational receivers. The concept of ‘linear-assisted’ is to divide the signal into two frequency domains: low frequency, which should be amplified by a switching circuit; and the high frequency domain, which should be amplified by a linear amplifier. The objective is to minimize the overall power loss. This research suggests using the current storage capacity of a PBB based converter to increase its bandwidth, and to increase the domain of the switching converter. The PBB converter addresses the industrial demand for a DC-DC converter for the application of auxiliary power supply of a typical electric train. However, after testing the industrial prototype of the PBB converter, there were some voltage and current spikes because of switching. To attenuate this problem without significantly increasing the switching loss, the idea of Active Gate Signalling (AGS) is presented. AGS suggests a smart gate driver that selectively controls the switching process to reduce voltage/current spikes, without unacceptable reduction in the efficiency of switching.

An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

A prioritised fuzzy constraint satisfaction approach to model agent negotiation for railway scheduling

With the recent regulatory reforms in a number of countries, railways resources are no longer managed by a single party but are distributed among different stakeholders. To facilitate the operation of train services, a train service provider (SP) has to negotiate with the infrastructure provider (IP) for a train schedule and the associated track access charge. This paper models the SP and IP as software agents and the negotiation as a prioritized fuzzy constraint satisfaction (PFCS) problem. Computer simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effects on the train schedule when the SP has different optimization criteria. The results show that by assigning different priorities on the fuzzy constraints, agents can represent SPs with different operational objectives.

Load flow in electrified railway

Probabilistic load flow techniques have been adopted in AC electrified railways to study the load demand under various train service conditions. This paper highlights the differences in probabilistic load flow analysis between the usual power systems and power supply systems in AC railways; discusses the possible difficulties in problem formulation and presents the link between train movement and the corresponding power demand for load flow calculation.

Probabilistic load flow calculation for AC traction supplies with AT feeding

Power load flow analysis is essential for system planning, operation, development and maintenance. Its application on railway supply system is no exception. Railway power supplies system distinguishes itself in terms of load pattern and mobility, as well as feeding system structure. An attempt has been made to apply probability load flow (PLF) techniques on electrified railways in order to examine the loading on the feeding substations and the voltage profiles of the trains. This study is to formulate a simple and reliable model to support the necessary calculations for probability load flow analysis in railway systems with autotransformer (AT) feeding system, and describe the development of a software suite to realise the computation.

Application of reliability-centred maintenance technology on electric trains

This paper demonstrates the application of the reliability-centred maintenance (RCM) process to analyse and develop preventive maintenance tasks for electric multiple units (EMU) in the East Rail of the Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). Two systems, the 25 kV electrical power supply and the air-conditioning system of the EMU, have been chosen for the study. RCM approach on the two systems is delineated step by step in the paper. This study confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of RCM applications on the maintenance of electric trains.

Parallel linear system solution and its application to railway power network simulation

The Streaming SIMD extension (SSE) is a special feature embedded in the Intel Pentium III and IV classes of microprocessors. It enables the execution of SIMD type operations to exploit data parallelism. This article presents improving computation performance of a railway network simulator by means of SSE. Voltage and current at various points of the supply system to an electrified railway line are crucial for design, daily operation and planning. With computer simulation, their time-variations can be attained by solving a matrix equation, whose size mainly depends upon the number of trains present in the system. A large coefficient matrix, as a result of congested railway line, inevitably leads to heavier computational demand and hence jeopardizes the simulation speed. With the special architectural features of the latest processors on PC platforms, significant speed-up in computations can be achieved.

A parallel computation of power system equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III and P4 classes of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

SSE based parallel solution for power systems network equations

Streaming SIMD Extensions (SSE) is a unique feature embedded in the Pentium III class of microprocessors. By fully exploiting SSE, parallel algorithms can be implemented on a standard personal computer and a theoretical speedup of four can be achieved. In this paper, we demonstrate the implementation of a parallel LU matrix decomposition algorithm for solving power systems network equations with SSE and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.