Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Improved maritime target tracker using colour fusion

Searching for humans lost in vast stretches of ocean has always been a difficult task. This paper investigates a machine vision system that addresses this problem by exploiting the useful properties of alternate colour spaces. In particular, the paper investigates the fusion of colour information from the HSV, RGB, YCbCr and YIQ colour spaces within the emission matrix of a Hidden Markov Model tracker to enhance video based maritime target detection. The system has shown promising results. The paper also identifies challenges still needing to be met.

Synthesis and Raman spectroscopic study of Mg/Al,Fe hydrotalcites with variable cationic ratios

Hydrotalcites of formula Mg6 (Fe,Al)2(OH)16(CO3).4H2O formed by intercalation with the carbonate anion as a function of divalent/trivalent cationic ratio have been successfully synthesised. The XRD patterns show variation in the d-spacing attributed to the size of the cation. Raman and infrared bands in the OH stretching region are assigned to (a) brucite layer OH stretching vibrations (b) water stretching bands and (c) water strongly hydrogen bonded to the carbonate anion. Multiple (CO3)2- symmetric stretching bands suggest that different types of (CO3)2- exist in the hydrotalcite interlayer. Increasing the cation ratio (Mg/Al,Fe) resulted in an increase in the combined intensity of the 2 Raman bands at around 3600 cm-1, attributed to Mg-OH stretching modes, and a shift of the overall band profile to higher wavenumbers. These observations are believed to be a result of the increase in magnesium in the structure. Raman spectroscopy shows a reduction in the symmetry of the carbonate, leading to the conclusion that the anions are bonded to the brucite-like hydroxyl surface and to the water in the interlayer. Water bending modes are identified in the infrared spectra at positions greater than 1630 cm-1, indicating the water is strongly hydrogen bonded to both the interlayer anions and the brucite-like surface.

Simultaneous determination of three synthetic glucocorticoids by differential pulse stripping voltammetry with the aid of chemometrics

A novel voltammetric method for simultaneous determination of the glucocorticoid residues prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone was developed. All three compounds were reduced at a mercury electrode in a Britton-Robinson buffer (pH 3.78), and well-defined voltammetric waves were observed. However, the voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped seriously and showed nonlinear character, and thus, it was difficult to analyze the compounds individually in their mixtures. In this work, two chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS), were applied to resolve the overlapped voltammograms, and the calibration models were established for simultaneous determination of these compounds. Under the optimum experimental conditions, the limits of detection (LOD) were 5.6, 8.3, and 16.8 µg l-1 for prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone, respectively. The proposed method was also applied for the determination of these glucocorticoid residues in the rabbit plasma and human urine samples with satisfactory results.

Towards automatic power line detection for a UAV surveillance system using pulse coupled neural filter and an improved Hough transform

Spatial information captured from optical remote sensors on board unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has great potential in automatic surveillance of electrical infrastructure. For an automatic vision-based power line inspection system, detecting power lines from a cluttered background is one of the most important and challenging tasks. In this paper, a novel method is proposed, specifically for power line detection from aerial images. A pulse coupled neural filter is developed to remove background noise and generate an edge map prior to the Hough transform being employed to detect straight lines. An improved Hough transform is used by performing knowledge-based line clustering in Hough space to refine the detection results. The experiment on real image data captured from a UAV platform demonstrates that the proposed approach is effective for automatic power line detection.

A Vision Based Target Detection System for Docking of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle

This paper describes the development and preliminary experimental evaluation of a visionbased docking system to allow an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) to identify and attach itself to a set of uniquely identifiable targets. These targets, docking poles, are detected using Haar rectangular features and rotation of integral images. A non-holonomic controller allows the Starbug AUV to orient itself with respect to the target whilst maintaining visual contact during the manoeuvre. Experimental results show the proposed vision system is capable of robustly identifying a pair of docking poles simultaneously in a variety of orientations and lighting conditions. Experiments in an outdoor pool show that this vision system enables the AUV to dock autonomously from a distance of up to 4m with relatively low visibility.

Evaluating the Java Virtual Machine as a Target for Languages Other Than Java

The portability and runtime safety of programs which are executed on the Java Virtual Machine (JVM) makes the JVM an attractive target for compilers of languages other than Java. Unfortunately, the JVM was designed with language Java in mind, and lacks many of the primitives required for a straighforward implementation of other languages. Here, we discuss how the JVM may be used to implement other object-oriented languages. As a practical example of the possibilities, we report on a comprehensive case study. The open source Gardens Point Component Pascal compiler compiles the entire Component Pascal language, a dialect of Oberon-2, to JVM bytecodes. This compiler achieves runtime efficiencies which are comparable to native-code implementations of procedural languages.

Translation and news making : a study of contemporary arabic television

Arabic satellite television has recently attracted tremendous attention in both the academic and professional worlds, with a special interest in Aljazeera as a curious phenomenon in the Arab region. Having made a household name for itself worldwide with the airing of the Bin Laden tapes, Aljazeera has set out to deliberately change the culture of Arabic journalism, as it has been repeatedly stated by its current General Manager Waddah Khanfar, and to shake up the Arab society by raising awareness to issues never discussed on television before and challenging long-established social and cultural values and norms while promoting, as it claims, Arab issues from a presumably Arab perspective. Working within the meta-frame of democracy, this Qatari-based network station has been received with mixed reactions ranging from complete support to utter rejection in both the west and the Arab world. This research examines the social semiotics of Arabic television and the socio-cultural impact of translation-mediated news in Arabic satellite television, with the aim to carry out a qualitative content analysis, informed by framing theory, critical linguistic analysis, social semiotics and translation theory, within a re-mediation framework which rests on the assumption that a medium “appropriates the techniques, forms and social significance of other media and attempts to rival or refashion them in the name of the real" (Bolter and Grusin, 2000: 66). This is a multilayered research into how translation operates at two different yet interwoven levels: translation proper, that is the rendition of discourse from one language into another at the text level, and translation as a broader process of interpretation of social behaviour that is driven by linguistic and cultural forms of another medium resulting in new social signs generated from source meaning reproduced as target meaning that is bound to be different in many respects. The research primarily focuses on the news media, news making and reporting at Arabic satellite television and looks at translation as a reframing process of news stories in terms of content and cultural values. This notion is based on the premise that by its very nature, news reporting is a framing process, which involves a reconstruction of reality into actualities in presenting the news and providing the context for it. In other words, the mediation of perceived reality through a media form, such as television, actually modifies the mind’s ordering and internal representation of the reality that is presented. The research examines the process of reframing through translation news already framed or actualized in another language and argues that in submitting framed news reports to the translation process several alterations take place, driven by the linguistic and cultural constraints and shaped by the context in which the content is presented. These alterations, which involve recontextualizations, may be intentional or unintentional, motivated or unmotivated. Generally, they are the product of lack of awareness of the dynamics and intricacies of turning a message from one language form into another. More specifically, they are the result of a synthesis process that consciously or subconsciously conforms to editorial policy and cultural interpretive frameworks. In either case, the original message is reproduced and the news is reframed. For the case study, this research examines news broadcasts by the now world-renowned Arabic satellite television station Aljazeera, and to a lesser extent the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBC) and Al- Arabiya where access is feasible, for comparison and crosschecking purposes. As a new phenomenon in the Arab world, Arabic satellite television, especially 24-hour news and current affairs, provides an interesting area worthy of study, not only for its immediate socio-cultural and professional and ethical implications for the Arabic media in particular, but also for news and current affairs production in the western media that rely on foreign language sources and translation mediation for international stories.