Spreading peak demand for urban rail transit through differential fare policy : a review of empirical evidence

More evenly spread demand for public transport throughout a day can reduce transit service provider‟s total asset and labour costs. A plausible peak spreading strategy is to increase peak fare and/or to reduce off-peak fare. This paper reviews relevant empirical studies for urban rail systems, as rail transit plays a key role in Australian urban passenger transport and experiences severe peak loading variability. The literature is categorised into four groups: a) passenger opinions on willingness to change time for travel, b) valuations of displacement time using stated preference technique, c) simulations of peak spreading based on trip scheduling models, and: d) real-world cases of peak spreading using differential fare. Policy prescription is advised to take into account impacts of traveller‟s time flexibility and joint effects of mode shifting and peak spreading. Although focusing on urban rail, arguments in this paper are relevant to public transport in general with values to researchers and practitioners.

Measurement of the first neutron diffraction peak of D2O flowing in a 2 mm diameter aluminium tube as a function of temperature

A pilot experiment was performed using the WOMBAT powder diffraction instrument at ANSTO in which the first neutron diffraction peak (Q0) was measured for D2O flowing in a 2 mm internal diameter aluminium tube. Measurements of Q0 were made at -9, 4.3, 6.9, 12, 18.2 and 21.5 °C. The D2O was circulated using a siphon with water in the lower reservoir returned to the upper reservoir using a small pump. This enabled stable flow to be maintained for several hours. For example, if the pump flow increased slightly, the upper reservoir level rose, increasing the siphon flow until it matched the return flow. A neutron wavelength of 2.4 Å was used and data integrated over 60 minutes for each temperature. A jet of nitrogen from a liquid N2 Dewar was directed over the aluminium tube to vary water temperature. After collection of the data, the d spacing of the aluminium peaks was used to calculate the temperature of the aluminium within the neutron beam and therefore was considered to be an accurate measure of water temperature within the beam. Sigmaplot version 12.3 was used to fit a Weibull five parameter peak fit to the first neutron diffraction peak. The values of Q0 obtained in this experiment showed an increase with temperature consistent with data in the literature [1] but were consistently higher than published values for bulk D20. For example at 21.5 °C we obtained a value of 2.008 Å-1 for Q0 compared to a literature value of 1.988 Å-1 for bulk D2O at 20 °C, a difference of 1%. Further experiments are required to see if this difference is real or artifactual.

The first x-ray diffraction peak of water as a function of temperature in the range 4 – 63 °C

X-ray diffraction structure functions for water flowing in a 1.5 mm diameter siphon in the temperature range 4 – 63 °C were obtained using a 20 keV beam at the Australian Synchrotron. These functions were compared with structure functions obtained at the Advanced Light Source for a 0.5 mm thick sample of water in the temperature range 1 – 77 °C irradiated with an 11 keV beam. The two sets of structure functions are similar, but there are subtle differences in the shape and relative position of the two functions suggesting a possible differences between the structure of bulk and siphon water. In addition, the first structural peak (Q0) for water in a siphon, showed evidence of a step-wise increase in Q0 with increasing temperature rather than a smoothly varying increase. More experiments are required to investigate this apparent difference.

A framework for understanding and generating integrated solutions for residential peak energy demand

Supplying peak energy demand in a cost effective, reliable manner is a critical focus for utilities internationally. Successfully addressing peak energy concerns requires understanding of all the factors that affect electricity demand especially at peak times. This paper is based on past attempts of proposing models designed to aid our understanding of the influences on residential peak energy demand in a systematic and comprehensive way. Our model has been developed through a group model building process as a systems framework of the problem situation to model the complexity within and between systems and indicate how changes in one element might flow on to others. It is comprised of themes (social, technical and change management options) networked together in a way that captures their influence and association with each other and also their influence, association and impact on appliance usage and residential peak energy demand. The real value of the model is in creating awareness, understanding and insight into the complexity of residential peak energy demand and in working with this complexity to identify and integrate the social, technical and change management option themes and their impact on appliance usage and residential energy demand at peak times.

Is there evidence to support the use of the angle of peak torque as a marker of hamstring injury and re-injury risk?

Hamstring strain injuries are the predominant injury in many sports, costing athletes and clubs a significant financial and performance burden. Therefore the ability to identify and intervene with individuals who are considered at a high risk of injury is important. One measure which has grown in popularity as an outcome variable following hamstring intervention/prevention studies and rehabilitation is the angle of peak knee flexor torque. This current opinion article will firstly introduce the measure and the processes behind it. Secondly, this article will summarise how the angle of peak knee flexor torque has been suggested to measure hamstring strain injury risk. Finally various limitations will be presented and outlined as to how they may influence the measure. These include the lack of muscle specificity, the common concentric contraction mode of assessment, reliability of the measure, various neural contributions (such as rate of force development and neuromuscular inhibition) as well as the lack of prospective data showing any predictive value in the measure.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

High-density fine-mapping of a chromosome 10q26 linkage peak suggests association between endometriosis and variants close to CYP2C19

OBJECTIVE To refine a previously reported linkage peak for endometriosis on chromosome 10q26, and conduct follow-up analyses and a fine-mapping association study across the region to identify new candidate genes for endometriosis. DESIGN Case-control study. SETTING Academic research. PATIENT(S) Cases=3,223 women with surgically confirmed endometriosis; controls=1,190 women without endometriosis and 7,060 population samples. INTERVENTION(S) Analysis of 11,984 single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 10. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Allele frequency differences between cases and controls. RESULT(S) Linkage analyses on families grouped by endometriosis symptoms (primarily subfertility) provided increased evidence for linkage (logarithm of odds score=3.62) near a previously reported linkage peak. Three independent association signals were found at 96.59 Mb (rs11592737), 105.63 Mb (rs1253130), and 124.25 Mb (rs2250804). Analyses including only samples from linkage families supported the association at all three regions. However, only rs11592737 in the cytochrome P450 subfamily C (CYP2C19) gene was replicated in an independent sample of 2,079 cases and 7,060 population controls. CONCLUSION(S) The role of the CYP2C19 gene in conferring risk for endometriosis warrants further investigation.

Insights into PBDE uptake, body burden, and elimination gained from Australian age–Concentration trends observed shortly after peak exposure

Background Population pharmacokinetic models combined with multiple sets of age– concentration biomonitoring data facilitate back-calculation of chemical uptake rates from biomonitoring data. Objectives We back-calculated uptake rates of PBDEs for the Australian population from multiple biomonitoring surveys (top-down) and compared them with uptake rates calculated from dietary intake estimates of PBDEs and PBDE concentrations in dust (bottom-up). Methods Using three sets of PBDE elimination half-lives, we applied a population pharmacokinetic model to the PBDE biomonitoring data measured between 2002–2003 and 2010–2011 to derive the top-down uptake rates of four key PBDE congeners and six age groups. For the bottom-up approach, we used PBDE concentrations measured around 2005. Results Top-down uptake rates of Σ4BDE (the sum of BDEs 47, 99, 100, and 153) varied from 7.9 to 19 ng/kg/day for toddlers and from 1.2 to 3.0 ng/kg/day for adults; in most cases, they were—for all age groups—higher than the bottom-up uptake rates. The discrepancy was largest for toddlers with factors up to 7–15 depending on the congener. Despite different elimination half-lives of the four congeners, the age–concentration trends showed no increase in concentration with age and were similar for all congeners. Conclusions In the bottom-up approach, PBDE uptake is underestimated; currently known pathways are not sufficient to explain measured PBDE concentrations, especially in young children. Although PBDE exposure of toddlers has declined in the past years, pre- and postnatal exposure to PBDEs has remained almost constant because the mothers’ PBDE body burden has not yet decreased substantially.

Physiological and symptomatic responses to cycling and walking in intermittent claudication

To shed light on the potential efficacy of cycling as a testing modality in the treatment of intermittent claudication (IC), this study compared physiological and symptomatic responses to graded walking and cycling tests in claudicants. Sixteen subjects with peripheral arterial disease (resting ankle: brachial index (ABI) < 0.9) and IC completed a maximal graded treadmill walking (T) and cycle (C) test after three familiarization tests on each mode. During each test, symptoms, oxygen uptake (VO2), minute ventilation (VE), respiratory exchange ratio (RER) and heart rate (HR) were measured, and for 10 min after each test the brachial and ankle systolic pressures were recorded. All but one subject experienced calf pain as the primary limiting symptom during T; whereas the symptoms were more varied during C and included thigh pain, calf pain and dyspnoea. Although maximal exercise time was significantly longer on C than T (690 +/- 67 vs. 495 +/- 57 s), peak VO2, peak VE and peak heart rate during C and T were not different; whereas peak RER was higher during C. These responses during C and T were also positively correlated (P < 0.05) with each other, with the exception of RER. The postexercise systolic pressures were also not different between C and T. However, the peak decline in ankle pressures from resting values after C and T were not correlated with each other. These data demonstrate that cycling and walking induce a similar level of metabolic and cardiovascular strain, but that the primary limiting symptoms and haemodynamic response in an individual's extremity, measured after exercise, can differ substantially between these two modes.

The ageing of alumina hydrolysates synthesized from sec-butoxyaluminium(III)

A combination of X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis and Raman spectroscopy was employed to characterise the ageing of alumina hydrolysates synthesised from the hydrolysis of anhydrous tri-sec-butoxyaluminium(III). X-Ray diffraction showed that the alumino-oxy(hydroxy) hydrolysates were pseudoboehmite. For boehmite the lamellar spacings are in the b direction and multiple d(020) peaks are observed for the un-aged hydrolysate. After 4 h of ageing, a single d(020) peak is observed at 6.53 Å. Thermal analysis showed five endotherms at 70, 140, 238, 351 and 445°C. These endotherms are attributed to the dehydration and dehydroxylation of the boehmite-like hydrolysate. Raman spectroscopy shows the presence of bands for the washed hydrolysates at 333, 355, 414, 455, 475, 495, 530 and 675 cm–1. These bands are attributed to pseudoboehmite. Ageing of the hydrolysates results in an increase in the crystallite size of the pseudoboehmite.

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of a high-defect kaolinite with formamide

The effect of mechanochemical activation upon the intercalation of formamide into a high-defect kaolinite has been studied using a combination of X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, and DRIFT spectroscopy. X-ray diffraction shows that the intensity of the d(001) spacing decreases with grinding time and that the intercalated high-defect kaolinite expands to 10.2 A. The intensity of the peak of the expanded phase of the formamide-intercalated kaolinite decreases with grinding time. Thermal analysis reveals that the evolution temperature of the adsorbed formamide and loss of the inserting molecule increases with increased grinding time. The temperature of the dehydroxylation of the formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite decreases from 495 to 470oC with mechanochemical activation. Changes in the surface structure of the mechanochemically activated formamide-intercalated high-defect kaolinite were followed by DRIFT spectroscopy. Fundamentally the intensity of the high-defect kaolinite hydroxyl stretching bands decreases exponentially with grinding time and simultaneously the intensity of the bands attributed to the OH stretching vibrations of water increased. It is proposed that the mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite caused the conversion of the hydroxyls to water which coordinates the kaolinite surface. Significant changes in the infrared bands assigned to the hydroxyl deformation and amide stretching and bending modes were observed. The intensity decrease of these bands was exponentially related to the grinding time. The position of the amide C&unknown;O vibrational mode was found to be sensitive to grinding time. The effect of mechanochemical activation of the high-defect kaolinite reduces the capacity of the kaolinite to be intercalated with formamide.

Experimental Infection of Culex Annulirostris, Culex Gelidus, and Aedes Vigilax With a Yellow Fever/Japanese Encephalitis Virus Vaccine Chimera (Chimerivax TM-JE)

Australian mosquitoes from which Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) has been recovered (Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, and Aedes vigilax) were assessed for their ability to be infected with the ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, with yellow fever vaccine virus 17D (YF 17D) from which the backbone of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine is derived and with JEV-Nakayama. None of the mosquitoes became infected after being fed orally with 6.1 log(10) plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL of ChimeriVax-JE vaccine, which is greater than the peak viremia in vaccinees (mean peak viremia = 4.8 PFU/mL, range = 0-30 PFU/mL of 0.9 days mean duration, range = 0-11 days). Some members of all three species of mosquito became infected when fed on JEV-Nakayama, but only Ae. vigilax was infected when fed on YF 17D. The results suggest that none of these three species of mosquito are likely to set up secondary cycles of transmission of ChimeriVax-JE in Australia after feeding on a viremic vaccinee.

New particle formation and growth at a remote, sub-tropical coastal location

A month-long intensive measurement campaign was conducted in March/April 2007 at Agnes Water, a remote coastal site just south of the Great Barrier Reef on the east coast of Australia. Particle and ion size distributions were continuously measured during the campaign. Coastal nucleation events were observed in clean, marine air masses coming from the south-east on 65% of the days. The events usually began at ~10:00 local time and lasted for 1-4 hrs. They were characterised by the appearance of a nucleation mode with a peak diameter of ~10 nm. The freshly nucleated particles grew within 1-4 hrs up to sizes of 20-50 nm. The events occurred when solar intensity was high (~1000 W m-2) and RH was low (~60%). Interestingly, the events were not related to tide height. The volatile and hygroscopic properties of freshly nucleated particles (17-22.5 nm), simultaneously measured with a volatility-hygroscopicity-tandem differential mobility analyser (VH-TDMA), were used to infer chemical composition. The majority of the volume of these particles was attributed to internally mixed sulphate and organic components. After ruling out coagulation as a source of significant particle growth, we conclude that the condensation of sulphate and/or organic vapours was most likely responsible for driving particle growth during the nucleation events. We cannot make any direct conclusions regarding the chemical species that participated in the initial particle nucleation. However, we suggest that nucleation may have resulted from the photo-oxidation products of unknown sulphur or organic vapours emitted from the waters of Hervey Bay, or from the formation of DMS-derived sulphate clusters over the open ocean that were activated to observable particles by condensable vapours emitted from the nutrient rich waters around Fraser Island or Hervey Bay. Furthermore, a unique and particularly strong nucleation event was observed during northerly wind. The event began early one morning (08:00) and lasted almost the entire day resulting in the production of a large number of ~80 nm particles (average modal concentration during the event was 3200 cm-3). The Great Barrier Reef was the most likely source of precursor vapours responsible for this event.