330 resultados para optimism bias
Resumo:
Nonlinear filter generators are common components used in the keystream generators for stream ciphers and more recently for authentication mechanisms. They consist of a Linear Feedback Shift Register (LFSR) and a nonlinear Boolean function to mask the linearity of the LFSR output. Properties of the output of a nonlinear filter are not well studied. Anderson noted that the m-tuple output of a nonlinear filter with consecutive taps to the filter function is unevenly distributed. Current designs use taps which are not consecutive. We examine m-tuple outputs from nonlinear filter generators constructed using various LFSRs and Boolean functions for both consecutive and uneven (full positive difference sets where possible) tap positions. The investigation reveals that in both cases, the m-tuple output is not uniform. However, consecutive tap positions result in a more biased distribution than uneven tap positions, with some m-tuples not occurring at all. These biased distributions indicate a potential flaw that could be exploited for cryptanalysis.
Resumo:
Nonlinear filter generators are common components used in the keystream generators for stream ciphers and more recently for authentication mechanisms. They consist of a Linear Feedback Shift Register (LFSR) and a nonlinear Boolean function to mask the linearity of the LFSR output. Properties of the output of a nonlinear filter are not well studied. Anderson noted that the m-tuple output of a nonlinear filter with consecutive taps to the filter function is unevenly distributed. Current designs use taps which are not consecutive. We examine m-tuple outputs from nonlinear filter generators constructed using various LFSRs and Boolean functions for both consecutive and uneven (full positive difference sets where possible) tap positions. The investigation reveals that in both cases, the m-tuple output is not uniform. However, consecutive tap positions result in a more biased distribution than uneven tap positions, with some m-tuples not occurring at all. These biased distributions indicate a potential flaw that could be exploited for cryptanalysis
Resumo:
Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au
Resumo:
Background: Assessments of change in subjective patient reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are a key component of many clinical and research evaluations. However, conventional longitudinal evaluation of change may not agree with patient perceived change if patients' understanding of the subjective construct under evaluation changes over time (response shift) or if patients' have inaccurate recollection (recall bias). This study examined whether older adults' perception of change is in agreement with conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in their HRQoL over the duration of their hospital stay. It also investigated this level of agreement after adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias that patients may have experienced. Methods: A prospective longitudinal cohort design nested within a larger randomised controlled trial was implemented. 103 hospitalised older adults participated in this investigation at a tertiary hospital facility. The EQ-5D utility and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) scores were used to evaluate HRQoL. Participants completed EQ-5D reports as soon as they were medically stable (within three days of admission) then again immediately prior to discharge. Three methods of change score calculation were used (conventional change, patient perceived change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias). Agreement was primarily investigated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and limits of agreement. Results: Overall 101 (98%) participants completed both admission and discharge assessments. The mean (SD) age was 73.3 (11.2). The median (IQR) length of stay was 38 (20-60) days. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change: ICCs were 0.34 and 0.40 for EQ-5D utility and VAS respectively. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias: ICCs were 0.98 and 0.90 respectively. Discrepancy between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change was considered clinically meaningful for 84 (83.2%) of participants, after adjusting for recall bias this reduced to 8 (7.9%). Conclusions: Agreement between conventional change and patient perceived change was not strong. A large proportion of this disagreement could be attributed to recall bias. To overcome the invalidating effect of response shift (on conventional change) and recall bias (on patient perceived change) a method of adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias has been described.
Resumo:
Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers. Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curricula. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention. This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.
Resumo:
By integrating two theoretical foundations of entrepreneurship research, behaviour and process, this conceptual paper proposes a new model to examine the behaviour of the entrepreneur across the new venture development process. Existing macro level research on the new venture creation process recognises the entrepreneur as a central agent in the process yet generally avoids, at each stage of the process, an examination of the micro level psychological experiences of the individual entrepreneur. Similarly, behavioural research examining entrepreneur individual differences has failed to systematically explore the emotion and behaviour of the entrepreneur across the cycle of the new venture creation process. We propose a conceptual framework to integrate the new venture creation process of opportunity discovery, evaluation and exploitation, with the psychological capital (efficacy, hope, resilience and optimism) of the individual entrepreneur. Propositions for future research to facilitate deeper insight into the impact of entrepreneur behaviour on the new venture creation process and ultimately the success or failure of the new venture are provided.
Resumo:
PCR-based cancer diagnosis requires detection of rare mutations in k- ras, p53 or other genes. The assumption has been that mutant and wild-type sequences amplify with near equal efficiency, so that they are eventually present in proportions representative of the starting material. Work on factor IX suggests that this assumption is invalid for one case of near- sequence identity. To test the generality of this phenomenon and its relevance to cancer diagnosis, primers distant from point mutations in p53 and k-ras were used to amplify wild-type and mutant sequences from these genes. A substantial bias against PCR amplification of mutants was observed for two regions of the p53 gene and one region of k-ras. For k-ras and p53, bias was observed when the wild-type and mutant sequences were amplified separately or when mixed in equal proportions before PCR. Bias was present with proofreading and non-proofreading polymerase. Mutant and wild-type segments of the factor V, cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and prothrombin genes were amplified and did not exhibit PCR bias. Therefore, the assumption of equal PCR efficiency for point mutant and wild-type sequences is invalid in several systems. Quantitative or diagnostic PCR will require validation for each locus, and enrichment strategies may be needed to optimize detection of mutants.
Reversed bias Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode with enhanced electric field for hydrogen sensing
Resumo:
In this paper, the effect of electric field enhancement on Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode based hydrogen sensors under reverse bias condition has been investigated. Current-voltage characteristics of these diodes have been studied at temperatures from 25 to 620 °C and their free carrier density concentration was estimated by exposing the sensors to hydrogen gas. The experimental results show a significantly lower breakdown voltage in reversed bias current-voltage characteristics than the conventional Schottky diodes and also greater lateral voltage shift in reverse bias operation than the forward bias. This can be ascribed to the increased localized electric fields emanating from the sharp edges and corners of the nanostructured morphologies. At 620 °C, voltage shifts of 114 and 325 mV for 0.06% and 1% hydrogen have been recorded from dynamic response under the reverse bias condition. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Seeing the outer suburbs: addressing the urban bias in creative place thinking, Regional Studies. This paper draws upon quantitative and qualitative research into Australian cities to question the assumption that creative industries workers inherently seek to cluster in inner-urban areas. It challenges this foundational assumption by combining a critical application of the location quotient analysis of major Australian cities with qualitative research drawn from interviews with creative workers based in suburban Melbourne and Brisbane. The findings provide analyses as to why many creative industries workers prefer to locate themselves in outer suburban places. There is also discussion of the implications of these findings for future work on the cultural geography and policies of creative industries.
Resumo:
Earlier research found evidence for electro-cortical race bias towards black target faces in white American participants irrespective of the task relevance of race. The present study investigated whether an implicit race bias generalizes across cultural contexts and racial in- and out-groups. An Australian sample of 56 Chinese and Caucasian males and females completed four oddball tasks that required sex judgements for pictures of male and female Chinese and Caucasian posers. The nature of the background (across task) and of the deviant stimuli (within task) was fully counterbalanced. Event-related potentials (ERPs) to deviant stimuli recorded from three midline sites were quantified in terms of mean amplitude for four components: N1, P2, N2 and a late positive complex (LPC; 350–700 ms). Deviants that differed from the backgrounds in sex or race elicited enhanced LPC activity. These differences were not modulated by participant race or sex. The current results replicate earlier reports of effects of poser race relative to background race on the LPC component of the ERP waveform. In addition, they indicate that an implicit race bias occurs regardless of participant's or poser's race and is not confined to a particular cultural context.
Resumo:
Sequence data often have competing signals that are detected by network programs or Lento plots. Such data can be formed by generating sequences on more than one tree, and combining the results, a mixture model. We report that with such mixture models, the estimates of edge (branch) lengths from maximum likelihood (ML) methods that assume a single tree are biased. Based on the observed number of competing signals in real data, such a bias of ML is expected to occur frequently. Because network methods can recover competing signals more accurately, there is a need for ML methods allowing a network. A fundamental problem is that mixture models can have more parameters than can be recovered from the data, so that some mixtures are not, in principle, identifiable. We recommend that network programs be incorporated into best practice analysis, along with ML and Bayesian trees.
Resumo:
Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.