Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Tubal damage, infertility and tubal ectopic pregnancy : chlamydia trachomatis and other microbial aetiologies

Infertility is a worldwide health problem with one in six couples suffering from this condition and with a major economic burden on the global healthcare industry. Estimates of the current global infertility rate suggest that 15% of couples are infertile (Zegers-Hochschild et al 2009) defined as: (1) failure to conceive after 12 months of unprotected sexual intercourse (i.e. infertility); (2) repeated implantation failure following ART cycles; or (3) recurrent miscarriage without difficulty conceiving (natural conceptions). Tubal factor infertility is among the leading causes of female factor infertility accounting for 7-9.8% of all female factor infertilities. Tubal disease directly causes from 36% to 85% of all cases of female factor infertility in developed and developing nations respectively and is associated with polymicrobial aetiologies. One of the leading global causes of tubal factor infertility is thought to be symptomatic (and asymptomatic in up to 70% cases) infection of the female reproductive tract with the sexually transmitted pathogen, Chlamydia trachomatis. Infection-related damage to the Fallopian tubes caused by Chlamydia accounts for more than 70% of cases of infertility in women from developing nations such as sub-Saharan Africa (Sharma et al 2009). Bacterial vaginosis, a condition associated with increased transmission of sexually transmitted infections including those caused by Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Mycoplasma genitalium is present in two thirds of women with pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). This review will focus on (1) the polymicrobial aetiologies of tubal factor infertility and (2) studies involved in screening for, and treatment and control of, Chlamydial infection to prevent PID and the associated sequelae of Fallopian tube inflammation that may lead to infertility and ectopic pregnancy.

Development and validation of novel methods for microbial source tracking based on Escherichia coli as an indicator of water quality

Microbial pollution in water periodically affects human health in Australia, particularly in times of drought and flood. There is an increasing need for the control of waterborn microbial pathogens. Methods, allowing the determination of the origin of faecal contamination in water, are generally referred to as Microbial Source Tracking (MST). Various approaches have been evaluated as indicatorsof microbial pathogens in water samples, including detection of different microorganisms and various host-specific markers. However, until today there have been no universal MST methods that could reliably determine the source (human or animal) of faecal contamination. Therefore, the use of multiple approaches is frequently advised. MST is currently recognised as a research tool, rather than something to be included in routine practices. The main focus of this research was to develop novel and universally applicable methods to meet the demands for MST methods in routine testing of water samples. Escherichia coli was chosen initially as the object organism for our studies as, historically and globally, it is the standard indicator of microbial contamination in water. In this thesis, three approaches are described: single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) screening using high resolution melt analysis (HRMA) methods and phage detection development based on CRISPR types. The advantage of the combination SNP genotyping and CRISPR genes has been discussed in this study. For the first time, a highly discriminatory single nucleotide polymorphism interrogation of E. coli population was applied to identify the host-specific cluster. Six human and one animal-specific SNP profile were revealed. SNP genotyping was successfully applied in the field investigations of the Coomera watershed, South-East Queensland, Australia. Four human profiles [11], [29], [32] and [45] and animal specific SNP profile [7] were detected in water. Two human-specific profiles [29] and [11] were found to be prevalent in the samples over a time period of years. The rainfall (24 and 72 hours), tide height and time, general land use (rural, suburban), seasons, distance from the river mouth and salinity show a lack of relashionship with the diversity of SNP profiles present in the Coomera watershed (p values > 0.05). Nevertheless, SNP genotyping method is able to identify and distinquish between human- and non-human specific E. coli isolates in water sources within one day. In some samples, only mixed profiles were detected. To further investigate host-specificity in these mixed profiles CRISPR screening protocol was developed, to be used on the set of E. coli, previously analysed for SNP profiles. CRISPR loci, which are the pattern of previous DNA coliphages attacks, were considered to be a promising tool for detecting host-specific markers in E. coli. Spacers in CRISPR loci could also reveal the dynamics of virulence in E. coli as well in other pathogens in water. Despite the fact that host-specificity was not observed in the set of E. coli analysed, CRISPR alleles were shown to be useful in detection of the geographical site of sources. HRMA allows determination of ‘different’ and ‘same’ CRISPR alleles and can be introduced in water monitoring as a cost-effective and rapid method. Overall, we show that the identified human specific SNP profiles [11], [29], [32] and [45] can be useful as marker genotypes globally for identification of human faecal contamination in water. Developed in the current study, the SNP typing approach can be used in water monitoring laboratories as an inexpensive, high-throughput and easy adapted protocol. The unique approach based on E. coli spacers for the search for unknown phage was developed to examine the host-specifity in phage sequences. Preliminary experiments on the recombinant plasmids showed the possibility of using this method for recovering phage sequences. Future studies will determine the host-specificity of DNA phage genotyping as soon as first reliable sequences can be acquired. No doubt, only implication of multiple approaches in MST will allow identification of the character of microbial contamination with higher confidence and readability.

Risk factors for moderate and severe microbial keratitis in daily wear contact lens users

Objective: To establish risk factors for moderate and severe microbial keratitis among daily contact lens (CL) wearers in Australia. Design: A prospective, 12-month, population-based, case-control study. Participants: New cases of moderate and severe microbial keratitis in daily wear CL users presenting in Australia over a 12-month period were identified through surveillance of all ophthalmic practitioners. Case detection was augmented by record audits at major ophthalmic centers. Controls were users of daily wear CLs in the community identified using a national telephone survey. Testing: Cases and controls were interviewed by telephone to determine subject demographics and CL wear history. Multiple binary logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors and univariate population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) was estimated for each risk factor.; Main Outcome Measures: Independent risk factors, relative risk (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]), and PAR%. Results: There were 90 eligible moderate and severe cases related to daily wear of CLs reported during the study period. We identified 1090 community controls using daily wear CLs. Independent risk factors for moderate and severe keratitis while adjusting for age, gender, and lens material type included poor storage case hygiene 6.4× (95% CI, 1.9-21.8; PAR, 49%), infrequent storage case replacement 5.4× (95% CI, 1.5-18.9; PAR, 27%), solution type 7.2× (95% CI, 2.3-22.5; PAR, 35%), occasional overnight lens use (<1 night per week) 6.5× (95% CI, 1.3-31.7; PAR, 23%), high socioeconomic status 4.1× (95% CI, 1.2-14.4; PAR, 31%), and smoking 3.7× (95% CI, 1.1-12.8; PAR, 31%). Conclusions: Moderate and severe microbial keratitis associated with daily use of CLs was independently associated with factors likely to cause contamination of CL storage cases (frequency of storage case replacement, hygiene, and solution type). Other factors included occasional overnight use of CLs, smoking, and socioeconomic class. Disease load may be considerably reduced by attention to modifiable risk factors related to CL storage case practice.

Microbial colonisation of follicular fluid : alterations in cytokine expression and adverse assisted reproductive technology outcomes

Previous studies have measured cytokine expression within follicular fluid collected at the time of trans-vaginal oocyte retrieval and compared the profiles with the aetiology of infertility and/or successful or unsuccessful assisted reproductive technology (ART) outcomes. Seventy-one paired follicular fluid and vaginal swab specimens collected from ART patients were cultured to detect microorganisms and then were tested for the presence of cytokines by multiplex fluorescence bead assays. Specimen selection was based on two criteria: whether the follicular fluid specimen was colonised (with microorganisms prior to oocyte retrieval) or contaminated by lower genital tract microflora at the time of oocyte retrieval and; the aetiology of infertility...

The microbial content of vacuum cleaner bag dust and emitted bioaerosols : implications for human exposures indoors

Vacuum cleaners can release large concentrations of particles, both in their exhaust air and from resuspension of settled dust. However, the size, variability and microbial diversity of these emissions are unknown, despite evidence to suggest they may contribute to allergic responses and infection transmission indoors. This study aimed to evaluate bioaerosol emission from various vacuum cleaners. We sampled the air in an experimental flow tunnel where vacuum cleaners were run and their airborne emissions sampled with closed-face cassettes. Dust samples were also 35 collected from the dust bag. Total bacteria, total archaea, Penicillium/Aspergillus and total Clostridium cluster 1 were quantified with specific qPCR protocols and emission rates were calculated. Clostridium botulinum, as well as antibiotic resistance genes were detected in each sample using endpoint PCR. Bacterial diversity was also analyzed using denaturing gel electrophoresis (DGGE), image analysis and band sequencing. We demonstrated that emission of bacteria and moulds (Pen/Asp) can reach values as high as 1E05/min and that those emissions are not related to each other. The bag dust bacterial and mould content was also consistently across the vacuums we assessed, reaching up to 1E07 bacteria or moulds equivalent/g. Antibiotic resistance genes were detected in several samples. No archaea or C. botulinum were detected in any air samples. Diversity analyses showed that most bacteria are from human sources, in keeping with other recent results. These results highlight the potential capability of vacuum cleaners to disseminate appreciable quantities of moulds and human-associated bacteria indoors and their role as a source of exposure to bioaerosols.

The epidemiology of microbial keratitis with silicone hydrogel contact lenses

It was widely anticipated that after the introduction of silicone hydrogel lenses, the risk of microbial keratitis would be lower than with hydrogel lenses because of the reduction in hypoxic effects on the corneal epithelium. Large-scale epidemiological studies have confirmed that the absolute and relative risk of microbial keratitis is unchanged with overnight use of silicone hydrogel materials. The key findings include the following: (1) The risk of infection with 30 nights of silicone hydrogel use is equivalent to 6 nights of hydrogel extended wear; (2) Occasional overnight lens use is associated with a greater risk than daily lens use; (3) The rate of vision loss due to corneal infection with silicone hydrogel contact lenses is similar to that seen in hydrogel lenses; (4) The spectrum of causative organisms is similar to that seen in hydrogel lenses, and the material type does not impact the corneal location of presumed microbial keratitis; and (5) Modifiable risk factors for infection include overnight lens use, the degree of exposure, failing to wash hands before lens handling, and storage case hygiene practice. The lack of change in the absolute risk of disease would suggest that exposure to large number of pathogenic organisms can overcome any advantages obtained from eliminating the hypoxic effects of contact lenses. Epidemiological studies remain important in the assessment of new materials and modalities. Consideration of an early adopter effect with studies involving new materials and modalities and further investigation of the impact of second-generation silicone hydrogel materials is warranted.