How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Necessary but not sufficient : accelerating progress and looking beyond the MDGs

The MDG deadline is fast approaching and the climate within the United Nations remains positive but skeptical. A common feeling is that a great deal of work and headway has been made, but the MDG goals will not be achieved in full by 2015. The largest problem facing the success of the MDGs is, and unless mitigated may remain, mismanaged governance. This argument is confirmed by a strong line of publications stemming from the United Nations and targeting methods (depending on a region or country context) such as improving governance via combating corruption, instituting accountability, peace and stability, as well as transparency. Furthermore, a logical assessment of the framework which MDGs operate in (i.e. international pressure and local civil socio-economic and/or political initiatives pushing governments to progress with MDGs) identifies the State's governing apparatus as the key to the success of MDGs. It is argued that a new analytic framework and grounded theory of democracy (the Element of Democracy) is needed in order to improve governance and enhance democracy. By looking beyond the confines of the MDGs and focusing on properly rectifying poor governance, the progress of MDGs can be accelerated as societies and their governments will be - at minimum - held more accountable to the success of programs in their respective countries. The paper demonstrates the logic of this argument - especially highlighting a new way of viewing democracy - and certain early practices which can accelerate MDGs in the short to medium term.

Practice-led research and the innovation agenda : beyond the postgraduate research degree in the arts, design and media

The rise of the ‘practice-led’ research approach has given us a new way of understanding what creative practice in art, design and media can do in the academy and the world— it can materialise new ideas and forms into being as a form of experimental research. Yet, to date, attention around the world, and especially in Australia, has been chiefly directed at the postgraduate research degrees, most notably the PhD or doctoral equivalents. Recent mapping projects and surveys of practice-led research in Australia reveal much about the institutional conditions of higher degree researchers, supervisors, examiners and research training (Baker et al 2009; Evans et al 2003; Dally et al 2004; Paltridge et al 2009; Phillips et al 2009). Given this focus, we might well ask: is the practice-led approach destined to be a part of the higher degree ghetto only, or does it have an afterlife? What is the place of ‘practice-led’ beyond the postgraduate degree? After all postgraduate researchers do not remain postgraduates forever, and perhaps the practice-led approach to research may have benefits in wider university, professional and communal contexts.

Beyond the fashionable : strategic planning for critical information literacy education

The challenge for all educators is to fuse the learning of information literacy to an academic education in such a way that the outcome is systematic and sustainable learning for students. This challenge can be answered through long-term commitment to information literacy education bound to organisation-wide, renewable strategic planning and driven through systemic reform. This chapter seeks to explore the two sides of reforming information literacy education in an academic environment. Specifically, it will examine how one Australian university has undertaken the implementation of a rigorous strategic, systemic approach to information literacy learning and teaching.

Quantum theory beyond the physical : information in context

Measures and theories of information abound, but there are few formalised methods for treating the contextuality that can manifest in different information systems. Quantum theory provides one possible formalism for treating information in context. This paper introduces a quantum-like model of the human mental lexicon, and shows one set of recent experimental data suggesting that concept combinations can indeed behave non-separably. There is some reason to believe that the human mental lexicon displays entanglement.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Beyond the controller

Performance / presentation given at Freeplay 2010, Melbourne, Victoria as an invited guest for a session entitled "Beyond the controller" This performance intended to review the follies of tangible interface design for games since the appearance of games specific control peripherals in the 1980s. In this work I examine: Technology as prosthesis – designed artefacts that enable interaction in a virtual world; Technology as the dream of virtuality – mind-ware. IN each instance the controller DICTATES the form of interaction

Beyond the walls of academia : architectural internships

A full architectural education typically involves five years of formal education and two years of practice experience under the supervision of a registered architect. In many architecture courses some of this period of internship can be taken either as a ‘year out’ between years of study, or during enrolment as credited study; work place learning or work integrated learning. This period of learning can be characterised as an internship in which the student, as an adult learner, is supervised by their employer. This is a highly authentic learning environment, but one in which the learner is both student and employee, and the architect is both teacher and employer; at times conflicting roles. While the educational advantages of such authentic practice experience are well recognised, there are also concerns about the quality and variability of such experiences. This paper reviews the current state of practice, with respect to architectural internships, and analyses such practice using Laurillard’s ‘conversational framework’ (2002). The framework highlights the interactions and affordances between teacher and student in the form of concepts, adaptations, reflections, actions and feedback. A review of common practice in architectural work place learning, internships in other fields of education, and focused research at the author’s own university, are discussed, then analysed for ‘affordances’ of learning. Such analysis shows both the potential of work place learning to offer a unique environment for learning, and the need to organise and construct such experiences in ways that facilitates learning.

Beyond the positivist mirror : towards a project management 'Gnosis'

This paper aims to clarify the foundations of the discipline of project management (PM). Historically, PM has evolved from a conceptual approach based on a positivist paradigm. The author questions the appropriateness of such foundations for the kind of project management which claims to deal with complex problems. To answer this question, a brief history of project management emphasizes key concepts useful to the discussion. Comprehensive definitions of knowledge, competencies, performance and knowledge management are reviewed to provide a better understanding of the project environment in terms of its present positivist epistemological position. This paper explores the tensions and paradoxes encountered in PM practice, when set within the boundaries of a normative approach; it also highlights the polysemic nature of PM, for which an extended framework is proposed. Dialectic, qualitative and interpretative aspects of PM are presented alongside its quantitative body of Knowledge. The author finally introduces an innovative overview of project management, set in the greater context of the learning organization. Implications and applications of this perspective are discussed and lead to the presentation of the MAP metamethod, a systemic practical approach.

A Fair Go Beyond the School Gate? Systemic factors affecting participation and attainment in tertiary education by Queensland students from LSES backgrounds

The purpose of this project was to conduct an empirical study that would result in findings that inform systemic policy development aimed at improving tertiary participation and attainment by students from low socioeconomic status (LSES) backgrounds in Queensland. The project focuses on systemic policy, initiatives and programs that encourage tertiary education participation and attainment by individuals from LSES backgrounds, rather than on institution-specific initiatives or programs. While the broad remit was to consider tertiary education participation, the study particularly highlights issues pertaining to LSES student participation and attainment in the higher education sector, given the notable under representation of this demographic subgroup in Australian universities. This study supports the strategic priority of addressing professional skills shortages and innovations aiming to improve human and social capital in the state of Queensland. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the enhancement of Queensland’s education and training system by maximising participation and attainment by people from LSES backgrounds in higher education, thereby improving their quality of life and future life choices and opportunities. The study addressed the following five research questions: 1. What are the major factors that promote or inhibit participation and attainment in tertiary education by LSES students in Queensland? 2. To what extent do systemic policies or practices(systemic factors) of Queensland’s tertiary education system promote or inhibit participation and attainment by LSES students? That is, what features of Queensland’s tertiary education system have a significant effect on participation and attainment by LSES students? 3. What system policies or practices are found to boost participation and attainment by LSES students in other jurisdictions? 4. What evidence is there to suggest that policies or practices that have boosted participation and attainment by LSES students in other jurisdictions would be successful if implemented in Queensland? 5. What are the implications of the research findings for Queensland’s tertiary education system to improve participation and attainment by LSES students? The project adopted a mixed methods approach to data collection. A comprehensive review of the literature was conducted to identify relevant state, national and international literature. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used to collect data from a range of key stakeholders.