Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Assessing the effectiveness of High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) for smoking cessation in women: HIIT to quit study protocol

Background: Smoking and physical inactivity are major risk factors for heart disease. Linking strategies that promote improvements in fitness and assist quitting smoking has potential to address both these risk factors simultaneously. The objective of this study is to compare the effects of two exercise interventions (high intensity interval training (HIIT) and lifestyle physical activity) on smoking cessation in female smokers. Method/design: This study will use a randomised controlled trial design. Participants: Women aged 18–55 years who smoke ≥ 5 cigarettes/day, and want to quit smoking. Intervention: all participants will receive usual care for quitting smoking. Group 1 - will complete two gym-based supervised HIIT sessions/week and one home-based HIIT session/week. At each training session participants will be asked to complete four 4-min (4 × 4 min) intervals at approximately 90 % of maximum heart rate interspersed with 3- min recovery periods. Group 2 - participants will receive a resource pack and pedometer, and will be asked to use the 10,000 steps log book to record steps and other physical activities. The aim will be to increase daily steps to 10,000 steps/day. Analysis will be intention to treat and measures will include smoking cessation, withdrawal and cravings, fitness, physical activity, and well-being. Discussion: The study builds on previous research suggesting that exercise intensity may influence the efficacy of exercise as a smoking cessation intervention. The hypothesis is that HIIT will improve fitness and assist women to quit smoking.

No evidence for association of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene T2119C and C3161G amino acid substitution variants with risk of breast cancer

Background There is evidence that certain mutations in the double-strand break repair pathway ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene act in a dominant-negative manner to increase the risk of breast cancer. There are also some reports to suggest that the amino acid substitution variants T2119C Ser707Pro and C3161G Pro1054Arg may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigate the breast cancer risk associated with these two nonconservative amino acid substitution variants using a large Australian population-based case–control study. Methods The polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 1300 cases and 600 controls using 5' exonuclease assays. Case–control analyses and genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression. Results The 2119C variant was rare, occurring at frequencies of 1.4 and 1.3% in cases and controls, respectively (P = 0.8). There was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.8), and the TC genotype was not associated with increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 0.59–1.97, P = 0.8). Similarly, the 3161G variant was no more common in cases than in controls (2.9% versus 2.2%, P = 0.2), there was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.1), and the CG genotype was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–1.98, P = 0.2). This lack of evidence for an association persisted within groups defined by the family history of breast cancer or by age. Conclusion The 2119C and 3161G amino acid substitution variants are not associated with moderate or high risks of breast cancer in Australian women.

Growth of boehmite nanofibers by assembling nanoparticles with surfactant micelles

It is known that boehmite (AlOOH) nanofibers formed in the presence of nonionic poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) surfactant at 373 K. A novel approach is proposed in this study for the growth of the boehmite nanofibers: when fresh aluminum hydrate precipitate was added at regular interval to initial mixture of boehmite and PEO surfactant at 373 K, the nanofibers grow from 40 to 50 nm long to over 100 nm. It is believed that the surfactant micelles play an important role in the nanofiber growth: directing the assembly of aluminum hydrate particles through hydrogen bonding with the hydroxyls on the surface of aluminum hydrate particles. Meanwhile a gradual improvement in the crystallinity of the fibers during growth is observed and attributed to the Ostwald ripening process. This approach allows us to precisely control the size and morphology of boehmite nanofibers using soft chemical methods and could be useful for low temperature, aqueous syntheses of other oxide nanomaterials with tailorable structural specificity such as size, dimension and morphology.

A Novel Range Test

In a range test, one party holds a ciphertext and needs to test whether the message encrypted in the ciphertext is within a certain interval range. In this paper, a range test protocol is proposed, where the party holding the ciphertext asks another party holding the private key of the encryption algorithm to help him. These two parties run the protocol to implement the test. The test returns TRUE if and only if the encrypted message is within the certain interval range. If the two parties do not conspire, no information about the encrypted message is revealed from the test except what can be deduced from the test result. Advantages of the new protocol over the existing related techniques are that it achieves correctness, soundness, °exibility, high e±ciency and privacy simultaneously.

Aging, retirement, and changes in physical activity : prospective cohort findings from the globe study

There is increased recognition that determinants of health should be investigated in a life-course perspective. Retirement is a major transition in the life course and offers opportunities for changes in physical activity that may improve health in the aging population. The authors examined the effect of retirement on changes in physical activity in the GLOBE Study, a prospective cohort study known by the Dutch acronym for "Health and Living Conditions of the Population of Eindhoven and surroundings," 1991–2004. They followed respondents (n = 971) by postal questionnaire who were employed and aged 40–65 years in 1991 for 13 years, after which they were still employed (n = 287) or had retired (n = 684). Physical activity included 1) work-related transportation, 2) sports participation, and 3) nonsports leisure-time physical activity. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that retirement was associated with a significantly higher odds for a decline in physical activity from work-related transportation (odds ratio (OR) = 3.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.97, 4.65), adjusted for sex, age, marital status, chronic diseases, and education, compared with remaining employed. Retirement was not associated with an increase in sports participation (OR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.75) or nonsports leisure-time physical activity (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.54, 1.19). In conclusion, retirement introduces a reduction in physical activity from work-related transportation that is not compensated for by an increase in sports participation or an increase in nonsports leisure-time physical activity.

The S.T.A.B. Trial - Standardised Testing of Artificial Blood. A comparative study of various products that may be used as artificial blood for high fidelity simulation training in the critical care setting

Aim: In the current climate of medical education, there is an ever-increasing demand for and emphasis on simulation as both a teaching and training tool. The objective of our study was to compare the realism and practicality of a number of artificial blood products that could be used for high-fidelity simulation. Method: A literature and internet search was performed and 15 artificial blood products were identified from a variety of sources. One product was excluded due to its potential toxicity risks. Five observers, blinded to the products, performed two assessments on each product using an evaluation tool with 14 predefined criteria including color, consistency, clotting, and staining potential to manikin skin and clothing. Each criterion was rated using a five-point Likert scale. The products were left for 24 hours, both refrigerated and at room temperature, and then reassessed. Statistical analysis was performed to identify the most suitable products, and both inter- and intra-rater variability were examined. Results: Three products scored consistently well with all five assessors, with one product in particular scoring well in almost every criterion. This highest-rated product had a mean rating of 3.6 of 5.0 (95% posterior Interval 3.4-3.7). Inter-rater variability was minor with average ratings varying from 3.0 to 3.4 between the highest and lowest scorer. Intrarater variability was negligible with good agreement between first and second rating as per weighted kappa scores (K = 0.67). Conclusion: The most realistic and practical form of artificial blood identified was a commercial product called KD151 Flowing Blood Syrup. It was found to be not only realistic in appearance but practical in terms of storage and stain removal.

Determinants of pre-hospital care non-usage for patients with emergency care needs [including commentary by Snooks H.]

Objective-To establish the demographic, health status and insurance determinants of pre-hospital ambulance non-usage for patients with emergency medical needs. Methods-Triage category, date of birth, sex, marital status, country of origin, method and time of arrival, ambulance insurance status, diagnosis, and disposal were collected for all patients who presented over a four month period (n=10 229) to the emergency department of a major provincial hospital. Data for patients with urgent (n=678) or critical care needs (n=332) who did not use pre-hospital care were analysed using Poisson regression. Results-Only a small percentage (6.6%) of the total sample were triaged as having urgent medical needs or critical care needs (3.2%). Predictors of usage for those with urgent care needs included age greater than 65 years (prevalence ratio (PR)=0.54; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 0.35 to 0.83), being admitted to intensive care or transferred to another hospital (PR=0.62; 95% CI=0.44 to 0.89) or ward (PR=0.72; 95% CI=0.56 to 0.93) and ambulance insurance status (PR=0.67; 95% CI=052 to 0.86). Sex, marital status, time of day and country of origin were not predictive of usage and non-usage. Predictors of usage for those with critical care needs included age 65 years or greater (PR=0.45; 95% CI=0.25 to 0.81) and a diagnosis of trauma (PR=0.49; 95% CI=0.26 to 0.92). A non-English speaking background was predictive of non-usage (PR=1.98; 95% CI=1.06 to 3.70). Sex, marital status, time of day, triage and ambulance insurance status were not predictive of non-usage. Conclusions-Socioeconomic and medical factors variously influence ambulance usage depending on the severity or urgency of the medical condition. Ambulance insurance status was less of an influence as severity of condition increased suggesting that, at a critical level of urgency, patients without insurance are willing to pay for a pre-hospital ambulance service.

The economic rationale for infection control in Australian hospitals

The objective of the present study was to predict the economic consequences of healthcare-acquired infections arising among admissions to Australian acute care hospitals. A quantitative algorithm informed by epidemiological and economic data was developed. All acute care hospitals in Australia were included in the study and the participants included all admissions to general medical and general surgical specialties. The main outcome measures were the numbers of cases of healthcare-acquired infection and bed days lost annually. It was estimated that there are 175 153 (95% credible interval 155 911 : 195 168) cases of healthcare-acquired infection among admissions to Australian hospitals annually, and the extra stay in hospital to treat symptoms accounts for 854 289 bed days (95% credible interval 645 091 : 1 096 244). If rates were reduced by 1%, then 150 158 bed days would be released for alternative uses. This would allow ~38 500 new admissions. Healthcare-acquired infections in patients cause bed blocks in Australian hospitals. The cost-effectiveness of hospital services might be improved by allocating more resources to infection control, releasing beds and allowing new admissions. There exists an opportunity to improve the efficiency of the Australian health care system.

Development of the benefit finding in multiple sclerosis (MS) caregiving scale: A longitudinal study of relations between benefit finding and adjustment

Benefit finding is a meaning making construct that has been shown to be related to adjustment in people with MS and their carers. This study investigated the dimensions, stability and potency of benefit finding in predicting adjustment over a 12 month interval using a newly developed Benefit Finding in Multiple Sclerosis Scale (BFiMSS). Usable data from 388 persons with MS and 232 carers was obtained from questionnaires completed at Time 1 and 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the BFiMSS revealed seven psychometrically sound factors: Compassion/Empathy, Spiritual Growth, Mindfulness, Family Relations Growth, Life Style Gains, Personal Growth, New Opportunities. BFiMSS total and factors showed satisfactory internal and retest reliability coefficients, and convergent, criterion and external validity. Results of regression analyses indicated that the Time 1 BFiMSS factors accounted for significant amounts of variance in each of the Time 2 adjustment outcomes (positive states of mind, positive affect, anxiety, depression) after controlling for Time 1 adjustment, and relevant demographic and illness variables. Findings delineate the dimensional structure of benefit finding in MS, the differential links between benefit finding dimensions and adjustment and the temporal unfolding of benefit finding in chronic illness.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Numerical analyses of crack spacing due to shrinkage in reinforced concrete slabs

Shrinkage cracking is commonly observed in concrete flat structures such as highway pavements, slabs, and bridge decks. Crack spacing due to shrinkage has received considerable attention for many years [1-3]. However, some aspects concerning the mechanism of crack spacing still remain un-clear. Though it is well known that the interval of the cracks generally falls with a range, no satisfactory explanation has been put forward as to why the minimum spacing exists.

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Effectiveness of current treatment approaches for benzodiazepine discontinuation : a meta-analysis.

Aims: To assess the effectiveness of current treatment approaches to assist benzodiazepine discontinuation. Methods: A systematic review of approaches to benzodiazepine discontinuation in general practice and out-patient settings was undertaken. Routine care was compared with three treatment approaches: brief interventions, gradual dose reduction (GDR) and psychological interventions. GDR was compared with GDR plus psychological interventions or substitutive pharmacotherapies. Results: Inclusion criteria were met by 24 studies, and a further eight were identified by future search. GDR [odds ratio (OR) = 5.96, confidence interval (CI) = 2.08–17.11] and brief interventions (OR = 4.37, CI = 2.28–8.40) provided superior cessation rates at post-treatment to routine care. Psychological treatment plus GDR were superior to both routine care (OR = 3.38, CI = 1.86–6.12) and GDR alone (OR = 1.82, CI = 1.25–2.67). However, substitutive pharmacotherapies did not add to the impact of GDR (OR = 1.30, CI = 0.97– 1.73), and abrupt substitution of benzodiazepines by other pharmacotherapy was less effective than GDR alone (OR = 0.30, CI = 0.14–0.64). Few studies on any technique had significantly greater benzodiazepine discontinuation than controls at follow-up. Conclusions: Providing an intervention is more effective than routine care. Psychological interventions may improve discontinuation above GDR alone. While some substitutive pharmacotherapies may have promise, current evidence is insufficient to support their use.

Temperature enhanced effects of ozone on cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US communities, 1987-2000 - assessment using the NMMAPS data

A few studies examined interactive effects between air pollution and temperature on health outcomes. This study is to examine if temperature modified effects of ozone and cardiovascular mortality in 95 large US cities. A nonparametric and a parametric regression models were separately used to explore interactive effects of temperature and ozone on cardiovascular mortality during May and October, 1987-2000. A Bayesian meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Both models illustrate that temperature enhanced the ozone effects on mortality in the northern region, but obviously in the southern region. A 10-ppb increment in ozone was associated with 0.41 % (95% posterior interval (PI): -0.19 %, 0.93 %), 0.27 % (95% PI: -0.44 %, 0.87 %) and 1.68 % (95% PI: 0.07 %, 3.26 %) increases in daily cardiovascular mortality corresponding to low, moderate and high levels of temperature, respectively. We concluded that temperature modified effects of ozone, particularly in the northern region.