ACE research briefing paper 005: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) - Australia 2011 National Report

This report maps the current state of entrepreneurship in Australia using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for the year 2011. Entrepreneurship is regarded as a crucial driver for economic well-being. Entrepreneurial activity in new and established firms drives innovation and creates jobs. Entrepreneurs also fuel competition thereby contributing indirectly to market and productivity growth along with improving competitiveness of the national economy. Given the economic landscape that exists as a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), it is probably more important than ever for us to understand the effects and drivers of entrepreneurial activity and attitudes in Australia. The central finding of this report is that entrepreneurship is certainly alive and well in Australia. With 10.5 per cent of the adult population involved in setting up a new business or owning a newly founded business as measured by the total entrepreneurial activity rate (TEA) in 2011, Australia ranks second only to the United States among the innovation-driven (developed) economies. Compared with 2010 the TEA rate has increased by 2.7 percentage points. Furthermore, in regard to employee entrepreneurial activity (EEA) rate in established firms, Australia ranks above average. According to GEM data, 5 per cent of the adult population is engaged in developing or launching new products, a new business unit or subsidiary for their employer. Further analysis of the GEM data also clearly shows that Australia compares well with other major economies in terms of the ‘quality’ of entrepreneurial activities being pursued. Indeed, it is not only the quantity of entrepreneurs but also the level of their aspirations and business goals that are important drivers for economic growth. On average, for each business started in Australia driven by the lack of alternatives for the founder to generate income from any other source, there are five other businesses started where the founders specifically want to take advantage of a business opportunity that they believe will increase their personal income or independence. With respect to innovativeness, 31 per cent of Australian new businesses offer products or services which they consider to be new to customers or where very few, or in some cases no, other businesses offer the same product or service. Both these indicators are higher than the average for innovation-driven economies. Somewhat below average is the international orientation of Australian entrepreneurs whereby only 12 per cent aim at having a substantial share of customers from international markets. So what drives this high quantity and quality of entrepreneurship in Australia? The analysis of the data suggests it is a combination of both business opportunities and entrepreneurial skills. It seems that around 50 per cent of the Australian population identify opportunities for a start-up venture and believe that they have the necessary skills to start a business. Furthermore, a large majority of the Australian population report that high media attention for entrepreneurship provides successful role models for prospective entrepreneurs. As a result, 12 per cent of our respondents have expressed the intention to start a business within the next three years. These numbers are all well above average when compared to the other major economies. With regard to gender, the GEM survey shows a high proportion of female entrepreneurs. Approximately 8.4 per cent of adult females are actually involved in setting up a business or have recently done so. Although this female TEA rate is slightly down from 2010, Australia ranks second among the innovation-driven economies. This paints a healthy picture of access to entrepreneurial opportunities for Australian women.

In the bank or on the ground : an examination of financial reserves in Australian international aid organisations

This study contributes to the understanding of the contribution of financial reserves to sustaining nonprofit organisations. Recognising the limited recent Australian research in the area of nonprofit financial vulnerability, it specifically examines financial reserves held by signatories to the Code of Conduct of the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID) for the years 2006 to 2010. As this period includes the Global Financial Crisis, it presents a unique opportunity to observe the role of savings in a period of heightened financial threats to sustainability. The need for nonprofit entities to maintain reserves, while appearing intuitively evident, is neither unanimously accepted nor supported by established theoretic constructs. Some early frameworks attempt to explain the savings behaviour of nonprofit organisations and its role in organisational sustainability. Where researchers have considered the issue, its treatment has usually been either purely descriptive or alternatively, peripheral to a broader attempt to predict financial vulnerability. Given the importance of nonprofit entities to civil society, the sustainability of these organisations during times of economic contraction, such as the recent Global Financial Crisis, is a significant issue. Widespread failure of nonprofits, or even the perception of failure, will directly affect, not only those individuals who access their public goods and services, but would also have impacts on public confidence in both government and the sectors’ ability to manage and achieve their purpose. This study attempts to ‘shine a light’ on the paradox inherent in considering nonprofit savings. On the one hand, a public prevailing view is that nonprofit organisations should not hoard and indeed, should spend all of their funds on the direct achievement of their purposes. Against this, is the commonsense need for a financial buffer if only to allow for the day to day contingencies of pay rises and cost increases. At the entity level, the extent of reserves accumulated (or not) is an important consideration for Management Boards. The general public are also interested in knowing the level of funds held by nonprofits as a measure of both their commitment to purpose and as an indicator of their effectiveness. There is a need to communicate the level and prevalence of reserve holdings, balancing the prudent hedging of uncertainty against a sense of resource hoarding in the mind of donors. Finally, funders (especially governments) are interested in knowing the appropriate level of reserves to facilitate the ongoing sustainability of the sector. This is particularly so where organisations are involved in the provision of essential public goods and services. At a scholarly level, the study seeks to provide a rationale for this behaviour within the context of appropriate theory. At a practical level, the study seeks to give an indication of the drivers for savings, the actual levels of reserves held within the sector studied, as well as an indication as to whether the presence of reserves did mitigate the effects of financial turmoil during the Global Financial Crisis. The argument is not whether there is a need to ensure sustainability of nonprofits, but rather how it is to be done and whether the holding of reserves (net assets) is an essential element is achieving this. While the study offers no simple answers, it does appear that the organisations studied present as two groups, the ‘savers’ who build reserves and keep ‘money in the bank’ and ‘spender-delivers’ who put their resources ‘on the ground’. To progress an understanding of this dichotomy, the study suggests a need to move from its current approach to one which needs to more closely explore accounts based empirical donor attitude and nonprofit Management Board strategy.

Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Financial Markets, Institutions and Money [3rd ed.]

"The financial system is a key influencer of the health and efficiency of an economy. The role of the financial system is to gather money from people and businesses that currently have more money than they need and transfer it to those that can use it for either business or consumer expenditures. This flow of funds through financial markets and institutions in the Australian economy is huge (in the billions of dollars), affecting business profits, the rate of inflation, interest rates and the production of goods and services. In general, the larger the flow of funds and the more efficient the financial system, the greater the economic output and welfare in the economy. It is not possible to have a modern, complex economy such as that in Australia, without an efficient and sound financial system. The global financial crisis (GFC) of late 2007–09 (and the ensuing European debt crisis), where the global financial market was on the brink of collapse with only significant government intervention stopping a catastrophic global failure of the market, illustrated the importance of the financial system. Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 3rd edition introduces students to the financial system, its operations, and participants. The text offers a fresh, succinct analysis of the financial markets and discusses how the many participants in the financial system interrelate. This includes coverage of regulators, regulations and the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia, that ensure the system’s smooth running, which is essential to a modern economy. The text has been significantly revised to take into account changes in the financial world."---publisher website Table of Contents 1. The financial system - an overview 2. The Monetary Authorities 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia and interest rates 4. The level of interest rates 5. Mathematics of finance 6. Bond Prices and interest rate risk 7. The Structure of Interest Rates 8. Money Markets 9. Bond Markets 10. Equity Markets

Transfer pricing and multinational financial institutions : the case for replacing arm’s length price with a unitary approach

The international tax system, designed a century ago, has not kept pace with the modern multinational entity rendering it ineffective in taxing many modern businesses according to economic activity. One of those modern multinational entities is the multinational financial institution (MNFI). The recent global financial crisis provides a particularly relevant and significant example of the failure of the current system on a global scale. The modern MNFI is increasingly undertaking more globalised and complex trading operations. A primary reason for the globalisation of financial institutions is that they typically ‘follow-the-customer’ into jurisdictions where international capital and international investors are required. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reported that from 1995-2009, foreign bank presence in developing countries grew by 122 per cent. The same study indicates that foreign banks have a 20 per cent market share in OECD countries and 50 per cent in emerging markets and developing countries. Hence, most significant is that fact that MNFIs are increasingly undertaking an intermediary role in developing economies where they are financing core business activities such as mining and tourism. IMF analysis also suggests that in the future, foreign bank expansion will be greatest in emerging economies. The difficulties for developing countries in applying current international tax rules, especially the current traditional transfer pricing regime, are particularly acute in relation to MNFIs, which are the biggest users of tax havens and offshore finance. This paper investigates whether a unitary taxation approach which reflects economic reality would more easily and effectively ensure that the profits of MNFIs are taxed in the jurisdictions which give rise to those profits. It has previously been argued that the uniqueness of MNFIs results in a failure of the current system to accurately allocate profits and that unitary tax as an alternative could provide a sounder allocation model for international tax purposes. This paper goes a step further, and examines the practicalities of the implementation of unitary taxation for MNFIs in terms of the key components of such a regime, along with their their implications. This paper adopts a two-step approach in considering the implications of unitary taxation as a means of improved corporate tax coordination which requires international acceptance and agreement. First, the definitional issues of the unitary MNFI are examined and second, an appropriate allocation formula for this sector is investigated. To achieve this, the paper asks first, how the financial sector should be defined for the purposes of unitary taxation and what should constitute a unitary business for that sector and second, what is the ‘best practice’ model of an allocation formula for the purposes of the apportionment of the profits of the unitary business of a financial institution.

International entrepreneurship and firm performance over economic crisis

Small and medium firms (SMEs) that operate in global markets are vulnerable to external shocks in uncertain, hostile and volatile business environments given their limited resources and inexperience. In such environments entrepreneurial firms respond by making strategic choices to mitigate such vulnerabilities. This research examines one such important strategic choice – entrepreneurial posturing and its link to financial performance in Finnish SMEs during the global financial crisis. Findings suggest that the dimensions of entrepreneurial posturing have a differential effect on firm performance depending upon the severity of the business environment as well as the firm’s degree of internationalization. Implications for theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research provided.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Financial Reserves : A Necessary Condition for Not-for-Profit Sustainability?

Should not-for-profit (NFP) organisations hold reserves to hedge uncertainty and protect mission delivery? This chapter outlines the nature and contxt of NFP reserves. many would accept that actors within NFP organisations have a broad accountability to ensure sustinability where an appropriate mission exists, and that sustinability is assisted or ensured through the purposeful accumulation of reserves. This chapter examins current relevant literature on reserves, reviews various approaches to reserves accumulation across jurisdictions and reports what is known about practice. We highlight the tension faced by NFP organisations, balancing mission spending against the need to hedge uncertainty. We investigate the role of reserves, and how an appropriate level is determined to ensure a NFP board's accountability for organisational sustinability. This issue is particularly significant in the period following the global financial crisis, and while practitioner interest is evident, there has been little academic attention paid to the topic of NFP reserves, and 'very few [articles] have even forcused on related topics' (Calabrese, 2011, p. 282).

ACE Research Vignette 042: Nascent ventures’ surprising resistance to macroeconomic crisis

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international entrepreneurship researchers. This vignette, written by Professor Per Davidsson, reports findings on how the onset of the Global Financial Crisis affected “nascent ventures”, i.e., on-going business start-up efforts.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

This paper considers the transmission of volatility in global foreign exchange, equity and bond markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework which includes measures of realised volatility as explanatory variables, significant volatility and news spillovers are found to occur on the same trading day between Japan, Europe, and the United States. All markets exhibit significant degrees of asymmetry in terms of the transmission of volatility associated with good and bad news. There are also strong links between diffusive volatilities in all three markets, whereas jumpactivity is only importantwithin the equitymarkets. The results of this paper deepen our understanding of how news and volatility are propagated through global financial markets.

A-REIT seasoned equity offerings : determinants and market reaction

The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings using panel data and event study methodologies, respectively. The global financial crisis has resulted in freezing of the Australian bond markets, with several A-REITs left with seasoned equity issuance and asset sales as the only viable modes of raising additional capital. The findings review that leverage and operating risk are negative significant determinants of seasoned equity offerings; profitability and growth opportunities are positive significant determinants. Of the structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT, only stapled management structure and international operations are significant determinants. Type of properties held by A-REITs show inconsistent results. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount raised and leverage are significant factors affecting abnormal returns.

Joseph A. Schumpeter, capitalism, socialism, and democracy

This is a review of "Capitalism, socialism, and democracy", by Joseph A. Schumpeter, New York, Harper Perennial, 1942 (first Harper Colophon edition published 1975). "The public mind has by now so thoroughly grown out of humor with it as to make condemnation of capitalism and all its works a foregone conclusion – almost a requirement of the etiquette of discussion. Whatever his political preference, every writer or speaker hastens to conform to this code and to emphasize his critical attitude, his freedom from ‘complacency’, his belief in the inadequacies of capitalist achievement, his aversion to capitalist and his sympathy with anti-capitalist interests. Any other attitude is voted not only foolish but anti-social and is looked upon as an indication of immoral servitude." We might easily mistake this for a voice weary of contemplating the implications for neo-liberal nostrums of our current global financial crisis were it not for the rather formal, slightly arch, style and the gender exclusive language. It was in fact penned in the depths of World War II by Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter, who fell off the map only to re-emerge from the 1970s as oil shocks and stagflation in the west presaged the decline of the Keynesian settlement, as east Asian newly industrialising economies were modelling on his insistence that entrepreneurialism, access to credit and trade were the pillars of economic growth, and as innovation became more of a watchword for post-industrial economies in general. The second coming was perhaps affirmed when his work was dubbed by Forbes in 1983 – on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the birth of both men – as of greater explanatory import than Keynes’. (And what of our present resurgent Keynesian moment?)...

Bullish creative industries and the bear market

The creative industries idea is better than even its original perpetrators might have imagined, judging from the original mapping documents. By throwing the heavy duty copyright industries into the same basket as public service broadcasting, the arts and a lot of not-for-profit activity (public goods) and commercial but non-copyright-based sectors (architecture, design, increasingly software), it really messed with the minds of economic and cultural traditionalists. And, perhaps unwittingly, it prepared the way for understanding the dynamics of contemporary cultural ‘prosumption’ or ‘playbour’ in an increasingly networked social and economic space.