Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis

Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: •Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. •Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. •Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

Brain fiber architecture, genetics, and intelligence: a high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) study

We developed an analysis pipeline enabling population studies of HARDI data, and applied it to map genetic influences on fiber architecture in 90 twin subjects. We applied tensor-driven 3D fluid registration to HARDI, resampling the spherical fiber orientation distribution functions (ODFs) in appropriate Riemannian manifolds, after ODF regularization and sharpening. Fitting structural equation models (SEM) from quantitative genetics, we evaluated genetic influences on the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), a novel measure of fiber spatial coherence, and on the generalized fiber anisotropy (GFA) a measure of fiber integrity. With random-effects regression, we mapped regions where diffusion profiles were highly correlated with subjects' intelligence quotient (IQ). Fiber complexity was predominantly under genetic control, and higher in more highly anisotropic regions; the proportion of genetic versus environmental control varied spatially. Our methods show promise for discovering genes affecting fiber connectivity in the brain.

Genetics of brain fiber architecture and intellectual performance

The study is the first to analyze genetic and environmental factors that affect brain fiber architecture and its genetic linkage with cognitive function. We assessed white matter integrity voxelwise using diffusion tensor imaging at high magnetic field (4 Tesla), in 92 identical and fraternal twins. White matter integrity, quantified using fractional anisotropy (FA), was used to fit structural equation models (SEM) at each point in the brain, generating three-dimensional maps of heritability. We visualized the anatomical profile of correlations between white matter integrity and full-scale, verbal, and performance intelligence quotients (FIQ, VIQ, and PIQ). White matter integrity (FA) was under strong genetic control and was highly heritable in bilateral frontal (a 2 = 0.55, p = 0.04, left; a 2 = 0.74, p = 0.006, right), bilateral parietal (a 2 = 0.85, p < 0.001, left; a 2 = 0.84, p < 0.001, right), and left occipital (a 2 = 0.76, p = 0.003) lobes, and was correlated with FIQ and PIQ in the cingulum, optic radiations, superior fronto- occipital fasciculus, internal capsule, callosal isthmus, and the corona radiata (p = 0.04 for FIQ and p = 0.01 for PIQ, corrected for multiple comparisons). In a cross-trait mapping approach, common genetic factors mediated the correlation between IQ and white matter integrity, suggesting a common physiological mechanism for both, and common genetic determination. These genetic brain maps reveal heritable aspects of white matter integrity and should expedite the discovery of single-nucleotide polymorphisms affecting fiber connectivity and cognition.

Genetics of white matter development: A DTI study of 705 twins and their siblings aged 12 to 29

White matter microstructure is under strong genetic control, yet it is largely unknown how genetic influences change from childhood into adulthood. In one of the largest brain mapping studies ever performed, we determined whether the genetic control over white matter architecture depends on age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), and intelligence quotient (IQ). We assessed white matter integrity voxelwise using diffusion tensor imaging at high magnetic field (4-Tesla), in 705 twins and their siblings (age range 12-29; 290. M/415. F). White matter integrity was quantified using a widely accepted measure, fractional anisotropy (FA). We fitted gene-environment interaction models pointwise, to visualize brain regions where age, sex, SES and IQ modulate heritability of fiber integrity. We hypothesized that environmental factors would start to outweigh genetic factors during late childhood and adolescence. Genetic influences were greater in adolescence versus adulthood, and greater in males than in females. Socioeconomic status significantly interacted with genes that affect fiber integrity: heritability was higher in those with higher SES. In people with above-average IQ, genetic factors explained over 80% of the observed FA variability in the thalamus, genu, posterior internal capsule, and superior corona radiata. In those with below-average IQ, however, only around 40% FA variability in the same regions was attributable to genetic factors. Genes affect fiber integrity, but their effects vary with age, sex, SES and IQ. Gene-environment interactions are vital to consider in the search for specific genetic polymorphisms that affect brain integrity and connectivity.

Genetics of anisotropy asymmetry: Registration and sample size effects

Brain asymmetry has been a topic of interest for neuroscientists for many years. The advent of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) allows researchers to extend the study of asymmetry to a microscopic scale by examining fiber integrity differences across hemispheres rather than the macroscopic differences in shape or structure volumes. Even so, the power to detect these microarchitectural differences depends on the sample size and how the brain images are registered and how many subjects are studied. We fluidly registered 4 Tesla DTI scans from 180 healthy adult twins (45 identical and fraternal pairs) to a geometrically-centered population mean template. We computed voxelwise maps of significant asymmetries (left/right hemisphere differences) for common fiber anisotropy indices (FA, GA). Quantitative genetic models revealed that 47-62% of the variance in asymmetry was due to genetic differences in the population. We studied how these heritability estimates varied with the type of registration target (T1- or T2-weighted) and with sample size. All methods consistently found that genetic factors strongly determined the lateralization of fiber anisotropy, facilitating the quest for specific genes that might influence brain asymmetry and fiber integrity.

Non-major-histocompatibility-complex genetics of ankylosing spondylitis

There is strong evidence from twin and family studies indicating that a substantial proportion of the heritability of susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and its clinical manifestations is encoded by non-major-histocompatibility-complex genes. Efforts to identify these genes have included genomewide linkage studies and candidate gene association studies. One region, the interleukin (IL)-1 gene complex on chromosome 2, has been repeatedly associated with AS in both Caucasians and Asians. It is likely that more than one gene in this complex is involved in AS, with the strongest evidence to date implicating IL-1A. Identifying the genes underlying other linkage regions has been difficult due to the lack of obvious candidates and the low power of most studies to date to identify genes of the small to moderate magnitude that are likely to be involved. The field is moving towards genomewide association analysis, involving much larger datasets of unrelated cases and controls. Early successes using this approach in other diseases indicates that it is likely to identify genes in common diseases like AS, but there remains the risk that the common-variant, common-disease hypothesis will not hold true in AS. Nonetheless, it is appropriate for the field to be cautiously optimistic that the next few years will bring great advances in our understanding of the genetics of this condition.

Bayesian latent trait modeling of migraine symptom data

Definition of disease phenotype is a necessary preliminary to research into genetic causes of a complex disease. Clinical diagnosis of migraine is currently based on diagnostic criteria developed by the International Headache Society. Previously, we examined the natural clustering of these diagnostic symptoms using latent class analysis (LCA) and found that a four-class model was preferred. However, the classes can be ordered such that all symptoms progressively intensify, suggesting that a single continuous variable representing disease severity may provide a better model. Here, we compare two models: item response theory and LCA, each constructed within a Bayesian context. A deviance information criterion is used to assess model fit. We phenotyped our population sample using these models, estimated heritability and conducted genome-wide linkage analysis using Merlin-qtl. LCA with four classes was again preferred. After transformation, phenotypic trait values derived from both models are highly correlated (correlation = 0.99) and consequently results from subsequent genetic analyses were similar. Heritability was estimated at 0.37, while multipoint linkage analysis produced genome-wide significant linkage to chromosome 7q31-q33 and suggestive linkage to chromosomes 1 and 2. We argue that such continuous measures are a powerful tool for identifying genes contributing to migraine susceptibility.

Interrogating statistical models of music perception

We have developed a new experimental method for interrogating statistical theories of music perception by implementing these theories as generative music algorithms. We call this method Generation in Context. This method differs from most experimental techniques in music perception in that it incorporates aesthetic judgments. Generation In Context is designed to measure percepts for which the musical context is suspected to play an important role. In particular the method is suitable for the study of perceptual parameters which are temporally dynamic. We outline a use of this approach to investigate David Temperley’s (2007) probabilistic melody model, and provide some provisional insights as to what is revealed about the model. We suggest that Temperley’s model could be improved by dynamically modulating the probability distributions according to the changing musical context.