Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Financial Markets, Institutions and Money [3rd ed.]

"The financial system is a key influencer of the health and efficiency of an economy. The role of the financial system is to gather money from people and businesses that currently have more money than they need and transfer it to those that can use it for either business or consumer expenditures. This flow of funds through financial markets and institutions in the Australian economy is huge (in the billions of dollars), affecting business profits, the rate of inflation, interest rates and the production of goods and services. In general, the larger the flow of funds and the more efficient the financial system, the greater the economic output and welfare in the economy. It is not possible to have a modern, complex economy such as that in Australia, without an efficient and sound financial system. The global financial crisis (GFC) of late 2007–09 (and the ensuing European debt crisis), where the global financial market was on the brink of collapse with only significant government intervention stopping a catastrophic global failure of the market, illustrated the importance of the financial system. Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 3rd edition introduces students to the financial system, its operations, and participants. The text offers a fresh, succinct analysis of the financial markets and discusses how the many participants in the financial system interrelate. This includes coverage of regulators, regulations and the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia, that ensure the system’s smooth running, which is essential to a modern economy. The text has been significantly revised to take into account changes in the financial world."---publisher website Table of Contents 1. The financial system - an overview 2. The Monetary Authorities 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia and interest rates 4. The level of interest rates 5. Mathematics of finance 6. Bond Prices and interest rate risk 7. The Structure of Interest Rates 8. Money Markets 9. Bond Markets 10. Equity Markets

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over eight days to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking, and found that participants became more risk averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an under-appreciated cause of market instability.

Transfer pricing and multinational financial institutions : the case for replacing arm’s length price with a unitary approach

The international tax system, designed a century ago, has not kept pace with the modern multinational entity rendering it ineffective in taxing many modern businesses according to economic activity. One of those modern multinational entities is the multinational financial institution (MNFI). The recent global financial crisis provides a particularly relevant and significant example of the failure of the current system on a global scale. The modern MNFI is increasingly undertaking more globalised and complex trading operations. A primary reason for the globalisation of financial institutions is that they typically ‘follow-the-customer’ into jurisdictions where international capital and international investors are required. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reported that from 1995-2009, foreign bank presence in developing countries grew by 122 per cent. The same study indicates that foreign banks have a 20 per cent market share in OECD countries and 50 per cent in emerging markets and developing countries. Hence, most significant is that fact that MNFIs are increasingly undertaking an intermediary role in developing economies where they are financing core business activities such as mining and tourism. IMF analysis also suggests that in the future, foreign bank expansion will be greatest in emerging economies. The difficulties for developing countries in applying current international tax rules, especially the current traditional transfer pricing regime, are particularly acute in relation to MNFIs, which are the biggest users of tax havens and offshore finance. This paper investigates whether a unitary taxation approach which reflects economic reality would more easily and effectively ensure that the profits of MNFIs are taxed in the jurisdictions which give rise to those profits. It has previously been argued that the uniqueness of MNFIs results in a failure of the current system to accurately allocate profits and that unitary tax as an alternative could provide a sounder allocation model for international tax purposes. This paper goes a step further, and examines the practicalities of the implementation of unitary taxation for MNFIs in terms of the key components of such a regime, along with their their implications. This paper adopts a two-step approach in considering the implications of unitary taxation as a means of improved corporate tax coordination which requires international acceptance and agreement. First, the definitional issues of the unitary MNFI are examined and second, an appropriate allocation formula for this sector is investigated. To achieve this, the paper asks first, how the financial sector should be defined for the purposes of unitary taxation and what should constitute a unitary business for that sector and second, what is the ‘best practice’ model of an allocation formula for the purposes of the apportionment of the profits of the unitary business of a financial institution.

International entrepreneurship and firm performance over economic crisis

Small and medium firms (SMEs) that operate in global markets are vulnerable to external shocks in uncertain, hostile and volatile business environments given their limited resources and inexperience. In such environments entrepreneurial firms respond by making strategic choices to mitigate such vulnerabilities. This research examines one such important strategic choice – entrepreneurial posturing and its link to financial performance in Finnish SMEs during the global financial crisis. Findings suggest that the dimensions of entrepreneurial posturing have a differential effect on firm performance depending upon the severity of the business environment as well as the firm’s degree of internationalization. Implications for theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research provided.

Financial Reserves : A Necessary Condition for Not-for-Profit Sustainability?

Should not-for-profit (NFP) organisations hold reserves to hedge uncertainty and protect mission delivery? This chapter outlines the nature and contxt of NFP reserves. many would accept that actors within NFP organisations have a broad accountability to ensure sustinability where an appropriate mission exists, and that sustinability is assisted or ensured through the purposeful accumulation of reserves. This chapter examins current relevant literature on reserves, reviews various approaches to reserves accumulation across jurisdictions and reports what is known about practice. We highlight the tension faced by NFP organisations, balancing mission spending against the need to hedge uncertainty. We investigate the role of reserves, and how an appropriate level is determined to ensure a NFP board's accountability for organisational sustinability. This issue is particularly significant in the period following the global financial crisis, and while practitioner interest is evident, there has been little academic attention paid to the topic of NFP reserves, and 'very few [articles] have even forcused on related topics' (Calabrese, 2011, p. 282).

ACE Research Vignette 042: Nascent ventures’ surprising resistance to macroeconomic crisis

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international entrepreneurship researchers. This vignette, written by Professor Per Davidsson, reports findings on how the onset of the Global Financial Crisis affected “nascent ventures”, i.e., on-going business start-up efforts.

A-REIT seasoned equity offerings : determinants and market reaction

The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings using panel data and event study methodologies, respectively. The global financial crisis has resulted in freezing of the Australian bond markets, with several A-REITs left with seasoned equity issuance and asset sales as the only viable modes of raising additional capital. The findings review that leverage and operating risk are negative significant determinants of seasoned equity offerings; profitability and growth opportunities are positive significant determinants. Of the structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT, only stapled management structure and international operations are significant determinants. Type of properties held by A-REITs show inconsistent results. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount raised and leverage are significant factors affecting abnormal returns.

Impeding good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government : the effect of a bureaucratic generation gap

The implementation of ‘good governance’ in Indonesia’s regional government sector became a central tenet in governance research following the introduction of the national code for governance in 2006. The code was originally drafted in 1999 as a response to the Asian financial crises and many cases of unearthed corruption, collusion, and nepotism. It was reviewed in 2001 and again in 2006 to incorporate relevant political, economical, and social developments. Even though the national code exists along with many regional government decrees on good governance, the extent of implementation of the tenets of good governance in Indonesia’s regional government is still questioned. Previous research on good governance implementation in Indonesian regional government (Mardiasmo, Barnes and Sakurai, 2008) identified differences in the nature and depth of implementation between various Indonesian regional governments. This paper analyses and extends this recent work and explores key factors that may impede the implementation and sustained application of governance practices across regional settings. The bureaucratic culture of Indonesian regional government is one that has been shaped for over approximately 30 years, in particular during that of the Soeharto regime. Previous research on this regime suggests a bureaucratic culture with a mix of positive and negative aspects. On one hand Soeharto’s regime resulted in strong development growth and strong economic fundamentals, resulting in Indonesia being recognised as one of the Asian economic tigers prior to the 1997 Asian financial crises. The financial crises however revealed a bureaucratic culture that was rife with corruption, collusion, and nepotism. Although subsequent Indonesian governments have been committed to eradicating entrenched practices it seems apparent that the culture is ingrained within the bureaucracy and eradication of it will take time. Informants from regional government agree with this observation, as they identify good governance as an innovative mechanism and to implement it will mean a deviation from the “old ways.” Thus there is a need for a “changed” mind set in order to implement sustained governance practices. Such an exercise has proven to be challenging so far, as there is “hidden” resistance from within the bureaucracy to change its ways. The inertia of such bureaucratic cultures forms a tension against the opportunity for the implementation of good governance. From this context an emergent finding is the existence of a ‘bureaucratic generation gap’ as an impeding variable to enhanced and more efficient implementation of governance systems. It was found that after the Asian financial crises the Indonesian government (both at national and regional level) drew upon a wider human resources pool to fill government positions – including entrants from academia, the private sector, international institutions, foreign nationals and new graduates. It suggested that this change in human capital within government is at the core of this ‘inter-generational divide.’ This divergence is exemplified, at one extreme, by [older] bureaucrats who have been in-position for long periods of time serving during the extended Soeharto regime. The “new” bureaucrats have only sat in their positions since the end of Asian financial crisis and did not serve during Soeharto’s regime. It is argued that the existence of this generation gap and associated aspects of organisational culture have significantly impeded modernising governance practices across regional Indonesia. This paper examines the experiences of government employees in five Indonesian regions: Solok, Padang, Gorontalo, Bali, and Jakarta. Each regional government is examined using a mixed methodology comprising of on-site observation, document analysis, and iterative semi-structured interviewing. Drawing from the experiences of five regional governments in implementing good governance this paper seeks to better understand the causal contexts of variable implementation governance practices and to suggest enhancements to the development of policies for sustainable inter-generational change in governance practice across regional government settings.

Joseph A. Schumpeter, capitalism, socialism, and democracy

This is a review of "Capitalism, socialism, and democracy", by Joseph A. Schumpeter, New York, Harper Perennial, 1942 (first Harper Colophon edition published 1975). "The public mind has by now so thoroughly grown out of humor with it as to make condemnation of capitalism and all its works a foregone conclusion – almost a requirement of the etiquette of discussion. Whatever his political preference, every writer or speaker hastens to conform to this code and to emphasize his critical attitude, his freedom from ‘complacency’, his belief in the inadequacies of capitalist achievement, his aversion to capitalist and his sympathy with anti-capitalist interests. Any other attitude is voted not only foolish but anti-social and is looked upon as an indication of immoral servitude." We might easily mistake this for a voice weary of contemplating the implications for neo-liberal nostrums of our current global financial crisis were it not for the rather formal, slightly arch, style and the gender exclusive language. It was in fact penned in the depths of World War II by Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter, who fell off the map only to re-emerge from the 1970s as oil shocks and stagflation in the west presaged the decline of the Keynesian settlement, as east Asian newly industrialising economies were modelling on his insistence that entrepreneurialism, access to credit and trade were the pillars of economic growth, and as innovation became more of a watchword for post-industrial economies in general. The second coming was perhaps affirmed when his work was dubbed by Forbes in 1983 – on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the birth of both men – as of greater explanatory import than Keynes’. (And what of our present resurgent Keynesian moment?)...

Bullish creative industries and the bear market

The creative industries idea is better than even its original perpetrators might have imagined, judging from the original mapping documents. By throwing the heavy duty copyright industries into the same basket as public service broadcasting, the arts and a lot of not-for-profit activity (public goods) and commercial but non-copyright-based sectors (architecture, design, increasingly software), it really messed with the minds of economic and cultural traditionalists. And, perhaps unwittingly, it prepared the way for understanding the dynamics of contemporary cultural ‘prosumption’ or ‘playbour’ in an increasingly networked social and economic space.

Dislodgement of commercial property public debt markets : the case of U.S. and Australia

The paper investigates if there are any discernible trends in the U.S. and Australian commercial property public debt markets with the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Commercial mortgage-backed securities and unsecured bonds issued by real estate investment trusts for the period 2000 to Q3:2009 are reviewed. It is shown that events in the equity markets have an impact on the pricing of these two instruments. Furthermore, the impact of subdued activity in these financing instruments on the commercial property market is discussed.

Determinants and market impact of seasoned equity offerings : the case of A-REITs

The paper examines the decision by Australian Real Estate Trusts (A-REITs) to issue seasoned equity offerings from 2000 - 2008 and stock market reaction to the offerings. The findings reveal that highly leveraged A-REITs with variable earnings are less likely to issue seasoned equity offerings. Inconsistent results for structure and type of properties held by the A-REIT do not allow for inference to be drawn. Similar to previous studies of seasoned equity offerings, we find a significant negative abnormal return associated with their announcement and no evidence of excessive leakage of information. Furthermore, market reaction differences to announcements of SEOs for the pre-global financial crisis (GFC) (2000-2006) and GFC eras (2007-2008) are noted with GFC era shareholders incurring larger abnormal return losses at 1.13% in comparison to the pre-GFC era shareholder loss of 0.34% on the SEO announcement day. Cross-sectional regressions show that the issued amount, leverage and profitability are significant factors affecting abnormal returns. Growth opportunities, tangibility, operating risk, size of A-REIT and other variables capturing A-REIT structure and property types held do not have an impact on abnormal returns

Short-termism : challenges and resolutions

The global financial crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of our economy to systemic risks. While its causes are numerous and relate to complex problems deeply embedded in capital markets, ‘short-termism’ (excessive focus on short-term outcomes at the expense of long-term wealth creation and sustainability) has frequently been flagged as a major contributor to this crisis. Although short-termism is not new, the global financial crisis has highlighted the presence of short-termism among institutional investors, and the failure of global markets and regulators to deal with such perverse and destructive behaviour (Guyatt 2009). Solutions are clearly needed. Although there is a body of research that provides evidence of the presence of short-termism in capital markets and the consequences of short-term decision-making on the financial wellbeing of both individuals and organisations, there is no consensus on mitigating solutions to short-termism. What emerges from the literature is the need to take a broad interdisciplinary perspective in seeking solutions to the problem.

Early childhood education for sustainability : why it matters, what it is, and how whole centre action research and systems thinking can help

The global financial crisis, global pandemics, global warming and peak oil are indicative of a world facing major environmental, social and economic problems. At the same time, world population continues to rise and global inequalities deepen. Children are the most vulnerable to the impacts of unsustainable living with specific harms arising because of their physical and cognitive vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, children do not have to be victims in the face of these challenges. Education, including early childhood education, has an important role to in building resilience and capabilities in children that equip them as active and informed citizens now and in the future and who are capable of contributing to healthy and sustainable ways of living. Drawing on educational change literature, action research, education for sustainability, health promotion and systems theory, this paper outlines three strategies that can help reorient early childhood education towards sustainability. One strategy is the adoption of whole centre approaches to sustainability and education for sustainability. This means working across the whole of a centre’s operations – curriculum and pedagogy, physical and social environments, its partnerships and community connections. The second strategy – applied in conjunction with the first – is the use of action research to investigate the early childhood setting and to create the desired changes. The third strategy is the adoption of systems thinking as a way of leveraging support and momentum for change so that education for sustainability goes beyond the initiatives of individual teachers and centres, and becomes a systems-wide imperative.