An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Mapping of shallow coastal groundwaters, their hydrology and environmental geochemistry : Pumicestone catchment, Southeast Queensland

Blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium majuscula Lyngbya in the coastal waters of southeast Queensland have caused adverse impacts on both environmental health and human health, and on local economies such as fishing and tourism. A number of studies have confirmed that the main limiting nutrients (“nutrients of concern”) that contribute to these blooms area Fe, DOC, N, P and also pH. This study is conducted to establish the distribution of these parameters in a typical southeast Queensland coastal setting. The study maps the geochemistry of shallow groundwater in the mainland Pumicestone catchment with an emphasis on the nutrients of concern to understand how these nutrients relate to aquifer materials, landuse and anthropogenic activities. The results of the study form a GIS information layer which will be incorporated into a larger GIS model being produced by Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) to support landuse management to avoid/minimize blooms of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, and other similar settings. A total of 38 boreholes were established in the mainland Pumicestone region and four sampling rounds of groundwater carried out in both dry and wet conditions. These groundwater samples were measured in the field for physico-chemical parameters, and in the laboratory analyses for the nutrients of concern, and other major and minor ions. Aquifer materials were confirmed using the Geological Survey of Queensland digital geology map, and geomaterials were assigned to seven categories which are A (sands), B (silts, sandy silts), C (estuarine mud, silts), D (humid soils), E (alluvium), F (sandstone) and G (other bedrock). The results of the water chemistry were examined by use of the software package AquaChem/AqQA, and divided into six groundwater groups, based on groundwater chemical types and location of boreholes. The type of aquifer material and location, and proximity to waterways was found to be important because they affected physico-chemical properties and concentrations of nutrients of concern and dissolved ions. The analytical results showed that iron concentrations of shallow groundwaters were high due to acid sulfate soils, and also mud and silt, but were lower in sand materials. DOC concentrations of these shallow groundwaters in the sand material were high probably due to rapid infiltration. In addition, DOC concentrations in some boreholes were high because they were installed in organic rich wetlands. The pH values of boreholes were from acidic to near neutral; some boreholes with pH values were low (< 4), showing acid sulfate soils in these boreholes. Concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus of groundwaters were generally low, and the main causes of elevated concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus are largely due to animal and human wastes and tend to be found in localized source areas. Comparison of the relative percentage of nitrogen species (NH3/NH4< Org-N, NO3-N and NO2-N) demonstrated that they could be related to sources such as animal waste, residential and agricultural fertilizers, forest and vegetation, mixed residents and farms, and variable setting and vegetation covers. Total concentrations of dissolved ions in sampling round 3 (dry period) were higher than those in sampling round 2 (wet period) due to both evaporation of groundwater in the dry period and the dilution of rainfall in the wet period. This showed that the highest concentrations of nutrients of concern were due to acid sulfate soils, aquifer materials, landuse and anthropogenic activities and were typically in aquifer materials of E (alluvium) and C (estuarine muds) and locations of Burpengary, Caboolture, and Glass Mountain catchments.

Education for strategic environmental behavior

This article reviews four bodies of research that shed light on how to promote active care for the environment in children and youth: research on sources of proenvironmental behavior, socialization for democratic skills and values, the development of a personal sense of competence, and the development of collective competence. The article begins with an overview of studies of formative childhood experiences reported by environmental activists and educators, followed by correlational and experimental studies with young people regarding factors associated with their taking action for the environment. Because behaviors with the largest potential benefits for the environment require political engagement, the article also reviews experiences associated with young people’s interest and engagement in public issues. Action for the environment in the home or in public arena like schools and communities requires a personal sense of competence and a sense of collective competence, or confidence in one’s ability to achieve goals by working with a group. Therefore experiences that promote the development of these assets are summarized as well. The conclusion compares major findings in these different fields and discusses implications for environmental educators.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Content analysis of international research in geographical and environmental education : eighteen years of academic publishing

This paper examines the history of the IRGEE Journal in terms of its sustainable future. The development of geographical and environmental education is evaluated, as reflected from the articles published in the Journal “International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education” (IRGEE). A content analysis of all papers and forum sections which have appeared in the journal since Volume 1 Number 1 was published in 1992 has been conducted, examining the content of as many as 526 articles. The method was a content analysis, and revealed themes which have experienced an increasing or declining interest over the 18 years of publication of IRGEE (1992-2009), while other themes have remained current during this period. The main findings of this analysis are: a) the total number of articles has increased more than threefold, b) articles related to geographical education (sensu stricto) outweighed those related to environmental education, c) the themes “syllabi, textbooks, curricula” and “values, attitudes” attract the attention of researchers with increasing strength and d) emerging subjects, such as GIS and sustainability have appeared dynamically in the last years.

Statistical and scientometric analysis of international research in geographical and environmental education

Certain statistic and scientometric features of articles published in the journal “International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education” are examined in this paper, for the period 1992-2009, by applying nonparametric statistics and Shannon’s entropy (diversity) formula. The main findings of this analysis are: a) after 2004 the research priorities of researchers in geographical and environmental education seem to have changed, b) “teacher education” has been the most recurrent theme throughout these 18 years, followed by “values & attitudes” and “inquiry & problem solving” c) the themes “GIS” and “Sustainability” were the most “stable” throughout the 18 years, meaning that they maintained their ranks as publication priorities more than other themes, d) citations of IRGEE increase annually, e) the average thematic diversity of articles published during the period 1992-2009 is 82.7% of the maximum thematic diversity (very high), meaning that the Journal has the capacity to attract a wide readership for the 10 themes it has successfully covered throughout the 18 years of its publication.

A critical regionalist approach to housing design in Vietnam : socio-environmental organisation of living spaces in pre- and post-reform houses

Vietnam has a unique culture which is revealed in the way that people have built and designed their traditional housing. Vietnamese dwellings reflect occupants’ activities in their everyday lives, while adapting to tropical climatic conditions impacted by seasoning monsoons. It is said that these characteristics of Vietnamese dwellings have remained unchanged until the economic reform in 1986, when Vietnam experienced an accelerated development based on the market-oriented economy. New housing types, including modern shop-houses, detached houses, and apartments, have been designed in many places, especially satisfying dwellers’ new lifestyles in Vietnamese cities. The contemporary housing, which has been mostly designed by architects, has reflected rules of spatial organisation so that occupants’ social activities are carried out. However, contemporary housing spaces seem unsustainable in relation to socio-cultural values because they has been influenced by globalism that advocates the use of homogeneous spatial patterns, modern technologies, materials and construction methods. This study investigates the rules of spaces in Vietnamese houses that were built before and after the reform to define the socio-cultural implications in Vietnamese housing design. Firstly, it describes occupants’ views of their current dwellings in terms of indoor comfort conditions and social activities in spaces. Then, it examines the use of spaces in pre-reform Vietnamese housing through occupants’ activities and material applications. Finally, it discusses the organisation of spaces in both pre- and post-reform housing to understand how Vietnamese housing has been designed for occupants to live, act, work, and conduct traditional activities. Understanding spatial organisation is a way to identify characteristics of the lived spaces of the occupants created from the conceived space, which is designed by designers. The characteristics of the housing spaces will inform the designers the way to design future Vietnamese housing in response to cultural contexts. The study applied an abductive approach for the investigation of housing spaces. It used a conceptual framework in relation to Henri Lefebvre’s (1991) theory to understand space as the main factor constituting the language of design, and the principles of semiotics to examine spatial structure in housing as a language used in the everyday life. The study involved a door-knocking survey to 350 households in four regional cities of Vietnam for interpretation of occupancy conditions and levels of occupants’ comfort. A statistical analysis was applied to interpret the survey data. The study also required a process of data selection and collection of fourteen cases of housing in three main climatic regions of the country for analysing spatial organisation and housing characteristics. The study found that there has been a shift in the relationship of spaces from the pre- to post-reform Vietnamese housing. It also indentified that the space for guest welcoming and family activity has been the central space of the Vietnamese housing. Based on the relationships of the central space with the others, theoretical models were proposed for three types of contemporary Vietnamese housing. The models will be significant in adapting to Vietnamese conditions to achieve socioenvironmental characteristics for housing design because it was developed from the occupants’ requirements for their social activities. Another contribution of the study is the use of methodological concepts to understand the language of living spaces. Further work will be needed to test future Vietnamese housing designs from the applications of the models.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

More than merely wicked : regulating sewage discharges and other unspeakable problems in environmental policy-making and planning

While the communicative turn in policy-making has encouraged the public deliberation of policy decisions it has arguably had a more limited impact on the ability of public processes to deal with wicked problems. Wicked policy problems are characterised by high levels of complexity, uncertainty and divergence of values. However, some wicked problems present the additional challenge of high levels of psychosocial sensitivity and verbal proscription. Because these unspeakable policy problems frequently involve a significant moral dimension, the regulation of intimate processes or bodies, and strong elements of abjection and symbolic pollution they are quite literally problems that we don’t like to think about or talk about. However, the potential environmental and social impacts of these problems require that they be addressed. In this paper I present the preliminary findings of a research project focussed on the idea of the unspeakable policy problem and how its unspeakable nature can impact upon public participation and policy and environmental outcomes.

The impact of mining and smelting activities on property values : a study of Mount Isa city, Queensland, Australia

Much publicity has been given to the problem of high levels of environmental contaminants, most notably high blood lead concentration levels among children in the city of Mount Isa because of mining and smelting activities. The health impacts from mining-related pollutants are now well documented. This includes published research being discussed in an editorial of the Medical Journal of Australia (see Munksgaard et al. 2010). On the other hand, negative impacts on property prices, although mentioned, have not been examined to date. This study rectifies this research gap. This study uses a hedonic property price approach to examine the impact of mining- and smelting-related pollution on nearby property prices. The hypothesis is that those properties closer to the lead and copper smelters have lower property (house) prices than those farther away. The results of the study show that the marginal willingness to pay to be farther from the pollution source is AUS $13 947 per kilometre within the 4 km radius selected. The study has several policy implications, which are discussed briefly. We used ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression, spatial error and spatial autoregressive or spatial lag models for this analysis.

Persistent robot tasking for environmental monitoring through crowd-sourcing

Persistent monitoring of the ocean is not optimally accomplished by repeatedly executing a fixed path in a fixed location. The ocean is dynamic, and so should the executed paths to monitor and observe it. An open question merging autonomy and optimal sampling is how and when to alter a path/decision, yet achieve desired science objectives. Additionally, many marine robotic deployments can last multiple weeks to months; making it very difficult for individuals to continuously monitor and retask them as needed. This problem becomes increasingly more complex when multiple platforms are operating simultaneously. There is a need for monitoring and adaptation of the robotic fleet via teams of scientists working in shifts; crowds are ideal for this task. In this paper, we present a novel application of crowd-sourcing to extend the autonomy of persistent-monitoring vehicles to enable nonrepetitious sampling over long periods of time. We present a framework that enables the control of a marine robot by anybody with an internet-enabled device. Voters are provided current vehicle location, gathered science data and predicted ocean features through the associated decision support system. Results are included from a simulated implementation of our system on a Wave Glider operating in Monterey Bay with the science objective to maximize the sum of observed nitrate values collected.

Rethinking Invasion Ecologies from the Environmental Humanities

Research from a humanist perspective has much to offer in interrogating the social and cultural ramifications of invasion ecologies. The impossibility of securing national boundaries against accidental transfer and the unpredictable climatic changes of our time have introduced new dimensions and hazards to this old issue. Written by a team of international scholars, this book allows us to rethink the impact on national, regional or local ecologies of the deliberate or accidental introduction of foreign species, plant and animal. Modern environmental approaches that treat nature with naïve realism or mobilize it as a moral absolute, unaware or unwilling to accept that it is informed by specific cultural and temporal values, are doomed to fail. Instead, this book shows that we need to understand the complex interactions of ecologies and societies in the past, present and future over the Anthropocene, in order to address problems of the global environmental crisis. It demonstrates how humanistic methods and disciplines can be used to bring fresh clarity and perspective on this long vexed aspect of environmental thought and practice. Students and researchers in environmental studies, invasion ecology, conservation biology, environmental ethics, environmental history and environmental policy will welcome this major contribution to environmental humanities.

Innovation through action research in environmental education : from project to praxis

This thesis is a work-in-progress that articulates my research journey based on the development of a curriculum innovation in environmental education. This journey had two distinct, but intertwined phases: action research based fieldwork, conducted collaboratively, to create a whole school approach to environmental education curriculum planning; and a phase of analysis and reflection based on the emerging findings, as I sought to create personal "living educational theory" about change and innovation. A key stimulus for the study was the perceived theory-practice gap in environmental education, which is often presented in the literature as a criticism of teachers for failing to achieve the values and action objectives of critical environmental education. Hence, many programs and projects are considered to be superficial and inconsequential in terms of their ability to seriously address environmental issues. The intention of this study was to work with teachers in a project that would be an exemplar of critical environmental education. This would be in the form of a whole school "learnscaping" curriculum in a primary school whereby the schoolgrounds would be utilised for interdisciplinary critical environment education. Parallel with the three cycles of action research in this project, my research objectives were to identify and comment upon the factors that influence the generation of successful educational innovation. It was anticipated that the project would be a collaboration involving me, as researcher-facilitator, and many of the teachers in the school as active participants. As the project proceeded through its action cycles, however, it became obvious that the goal of developing a critical environmental education curriculum, and the use of highly participatory processes, were unrealistic. Institutional and organisational rigidities in education generally, teachers' day-to-day work demands, and the constant juggle of work, family and other responsibilities for all participants acted as significant constraints. Consequently, it became apparent that the learnscaping curriculum would not be the hoped-for exemplar. Progress was slow and, at times, the project was in danger of stalling permanently. While the curriculum had some elements of critical environmental education, these were minor and not well spread throughout the school. Overall, the outcome seemed best described as a "small win"; perhaps just another example of the theory-practice gap that I had hoped this project would bridge. Towards the project's end, however, my continuing reflection led to an exploration of chaos/complexity theory which gave new meaning to the concept of a "small win". According to this theory, change is not the product of linear processes applied methodically in purposeful and diligent ways, but emerges from serendipitous events that cannot be planned for, or forecast in advance. When this perspective of change is applied to human organisations - in this study, a busy school - the context for change is recognised not as a stable, predictable environment, but as a highly complex system where change happens all the time, cannot be controlled, and no one can be really sure where the impacts might lead. This so-called "butterfly effect" is a central idea of this theory where small changes or modifications are created - the effects of which are difficult to know, let alone determine - and which can have large-scale impacts. Allied with this effect is the belief that long term developments in an organisation that takes complexity into account, emerge by spontaneous self-organising evolution, requiring political interaction and learning in groups, rather than systematic progress towards predetermined goals or "visions". Hence, because change itself and the contexts of change are recognised as complex, chaos/complexity theory suggests that change is more likely to be slow and evolutionary - cultural change - rather than fast and revolutionary where the old is quickly ushered out by radical reforms and replaced by new structures and processes. Slow, small-scale changes are "normal", from a complexity viewpoint, while rapid, wholesale change is both unlikely and unrealistic. Therefore, the frustratingly slow, small-scale, imperfect educational changes that teachers create - including environmental education initiatives - should be seen for what they really are. They should be recognised as successful changes, the impacts of which cannot be known, but which have the potential to magnify into large-scale changes into the future. Rather than being regarded as failures for not meeting critical education criteria, "small wins" should be cause for celebration and support. The intertwined phases of collaborative action research and individual researcher reflection are mirrored in the thesis structure. The first three chapters, respectively, provide the thesis overview, the literature underpinning the study's central concern, and the research methodology. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 report on each of the three action research cycles of the study, namely Laying the Groundwork, Down to Work!, and The Never-ending Story. Each of these chapters presents a narrative of events, a literature review specific to developments in the cycle, and analysis and critique of the events, processes and outcomes of each cycle. Chapter 7 provides a synthesis of the whole of the study, outlining my interim propositions about facilitating curriculum change in schools through action research, and the implications of these for environmental education.

A data analytics case study assessing factors affecting pavement deflection values

Road networks are a national critical infrastructure. The road assets need to be monitored and maintained efficiently as their conditions deteriorate over time. The condition of one of such assets, road pavement, plays a major role in the road network maintenance programmes. Pavement conditions depend upon many factors such as pavement types, traffic and environmental conditions. This paper presents a data analytics case study for assessing the factors affecting the pavement deflection values measured by the traffic speed deflectometer (TSD) device. The analytics process includes acquisition and integration of data from multiple sources, data pre-processing, mining useful information from them and utilising data mining outputs for knowledge deployment. Data mining techniques are able to show how TSD outputs vary in different roads, traffic and environmental conditions. The generated data mining models map the TSD outputs to some classes and define correction factors for each class.

20 Years of pacifying responses to environmental management

Using a state, pressure, response framework, we provide an evidence-based reflection on environmental outcomes in Australia and New Zealand across the domains of climate change, biodiversity, freshwater and marine management, emphasising the role of Indigenous and business perspectives. Significant developments have occurred in the past 20 years through affirmation of Indigenous rights and responsibilities. Responses to climate change have tended to emphasise passive risk management with unclear outcomes. Despite meeting biodiversity protection targets, outcomes are worsening, suggesting a need to challenge the dualistic preservation/production land categorisations. In freshwater and marine management, a mix of collaborative and market-based responses has emerged, although their efficacy remains untested. A reliance on voluntary approaches by business makes critical assessment of progress difficult. Thus, despite strong progress in some areas, the adaptiveness of environmental management remains limited, and many indicators suggest continuing decline in environmental condition. Our responses have been largely pacifying in nature, leading to perverse outcomes and failure to acknowledge alternatives that might address deteriorating environmental conditions. A shift is needed towards deliberative policy experimentation that truly values the application of novel and diversified approaches and facilitates integrated learning across environmental domains.