The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Parametric modelling for the efficient design of daylight strategies with complex geometries

Daylight devices are important components of any climate responsive façade system. But, the evolution of parametric CAD systems and digital fabrication has had an impact on architectural form so that regular forms are shifting to complex geometries. Architectural and engineering integration of daylight devices in envelopes with complex geometries is a challenge in terms of design and performance evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to assess daylight performance of a building with a climatic responsive envelope with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. The case study is based on the Esplanade buildings in Singapore. Climate-based day-light metrics such as Daylight Availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance are used. DIVA (daylight simulation), and Grasshopper (parametric analysis) plug-ins for Rhinoceros have been employed to examine the range of performance possibilities. Parameters such as dimension, inclination of the device, projected shadows and shape have been changed in order to maximize daylight availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance while minimizing glare probability. While orientation did not have a great impact on the results, aperture of the shading devices did, showing that shading devices with a projection of 1.75 m to 2.00 m performed best, achieving target lighting levels without issues of glare.

Trait resilience fosters adaptive coping when control opportunities are high : implications for the motivating potential of active work

Purpose: We examine the interaction between trait resilience and control in predicting coping and performance. Drawing on a person–environment fit perspective, we hypothesized resilient individuals would cope and perform better in demanding work situations when control was high. In contrast, those low in resilience would cope and perform better when control was low. Recognizing the relationship between trait resilience and performance also could be indirect, adaptive coping was examined as a mediating mechanism through which high control enables resilient individuals to demonstrate better performance. Methodology: In Study 1 (N = 78) and Study 2 (N = 94), participants completed a demanding inbox task in which trait resilience was measured and high and low control was manipulated. Study 3 involved surveying 368 employees on their trait resilience, control, and demand at work (at Time 1), and coping and performance 1 month later at Time 2. Findings: For more resilient individuals, high control facilitated problem-focused coping (Study 1, 2, and 3), which was indirectly associated with higher subjective performance (Study 1), mastery (Study 2), adaptive, and proficient performance (Study 3). For more resilient individuals, high control also facilitated positive reappraisal (Study 2 and 3), which was indirectly associated with higher adaptive and proficient performance (Study 3). Implications: Individuals higher in resilience benefit from high control because it enables adaptive coping. Originality/value: This research makes two contributions: (1) an experimental investigation into the interaction of trait resilience and control, and (2) investigation of coping as the mechanism explaining better performance.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Adaptive nature of coordinated road traffic injury prevention responses in some OECD countries

This study examines the context of coordinated responses, triggers for coordinated responses, and preference for or choice of coordinating strategies in road traffic injury prevention at a local level in some OECD countries. This aim is achieved through a mixed-methodology. In this respect, 22 semi-structured interviews were conducted with road traffic injury prevention experts from five OECD countries. In addition, 31 professional road traffic injury prevention stakeholders from seven OECD nations completed a self-administered, online survey. It found that there was resource limitation and inter-dependence across actors within the context of road traffic injury prevention at a local level. Furthermore, this study unveiled the realization of resource-dependency as a trigger for coordinated responses at a local level. Moreover, the present examination has revealed two coordinating strategies favored by experts in road traffic injury prevention – i.e. self-organizing community groups, which are deemed to have a platform to deliver programs within communities, and the funding of community groups to forge partnerships. However, the present study did not appear to endorse other strategies such as the formalization of coordinated responses or a legal mandate to coordinate responses. In essence, this study appears to suggest a need to manage coordinated responses from an adaptive perspective with interactions across road traffic injury prevention programs being forged on a mutual understanding of inter-dependency arising out of resource scarcity. In fact, the role of legislation and top-down national models in local level management of coordinated responses is likely to be one of identifying opportunities to interact with self-organized community groups and fund partnership-based road traffic injury prevention events.

Towards adaptive management of QoS-aware service compositions - Functional architecture

Service compositions enable users to realize their complex needs as a single request. Despite intensive research, especially in the area of business processes, web services and grids, an open and valid question is still how to manage service compositions in order to satisfy both functional and non-functional requirements as well as adapt to dynamic changes. In this paper we propose an (functional) architecture for adaptive management of QoS-aware service compositions. Comparing to the other existing architectures this one offers two major advantages. Firstly, this architecture supports various execution strategies based on dynamic selection and negotiation of services included in a service composition, contracting based on service level agreements, service enactment with flexible support for exception handling, monitoring of service level objectives, and profiling of execution data. Secondly, the architecture is built on the basis of well know existing standards to communicate and exchange data, which significantly reduces effort to integrate existing solutions and tools from different vendors. A first prototype of this architecture has been implemented within an EU-funded Adaptive Service Grid project. © 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Genomic architecture of ecologically divergent body shape in a pair of sympatric crater lake cichlid fishes

Determining the genetic bases of adaptations and their roles in speciation is a prominent issue in evolutionary biology. Cichlid fish species flocks are a prime example of recent rapid radiations, often associated with adaptive phenotypic divergence from a common ancestor within a short period of time. In several radiations of freshwater fishes, divergence in ecomorphological traits - including body shape, colour, lips and jaws - is thought to underlie their ecological differentiation, specialization and, ultimately, speciation. The Midas cichlid species complex (Amphilophus spp.) of Nicaragua provides one of the few known examples of sympatric speciation where species have rapidly evolved different but parallel morphologies in young crater lakes. This study identified significant QTL for body shape using SNPs generated via ddRAD sequencing and geometric morphometric analyses of a cross between two ecologically and morphologically divergent, sympatric cichlid species endemic to crater Lake Apoyo: an elongated limnetic species (Amphilophus zaliosus) and a high-bodied benthic species (Amphilophus astorquii). A total of 453 genome-wide informative SNPs were identified in 240 F-2 hybrids. These markers were used to construct a genetic map in which 25 linkage groups were resolved. Seventy-two segregating SNPs were linked to 11 QTL. By annotating the two most highly supported QTL-linked genomic regions, genes that might contribute to divergence in body shape along the benthic-limnetic axis in Midas cichlid sympatric adaptive radiations were identified. These results suggest that few genomic regions of large effect contribute to early stage divergence in Midas cichlids.

LED lighting design strategies to enhance window appearance and increase energy savings in daylit office spaces

Vertical windows are the most common and simplest method to introduce daylight to interior spaces of office buildings, while also providing a view and connection to the outside. However, high contrast ratios between windows and surrounding surfaces can cause visual discomfort for occupants and can negatively influence their health and productivity. Consequently, building occupants may try to adapt their working environment through closing blinds and turning on lights in order to improve indoor visual comfort. Such interventions defeat the purpose of daylight harvesting systems and can increase the forecast electric lighting consumption in buildings that include such systems. A simple strategy to prevent these problematic consequences is to reduce the luminance contrasts presented by the window wall by increasing the luminance of areas surrounding the window through the sparing use of energy-efficient supplementary lighting, such light emitting diodes (LEDs). This paper presents the result of a pilot study in typical office in Brisbane, Australia that tests the effectiveness of a supplementary LED lighting system. The study shows an improvement in the appraisal of the visual environment is achieved using the supplementary system, along with up to 88% reductions in luminance contrast at the window wall. Also observed is a 36% reduction in the likelihood of user interventions that would increase energy usage. These results are used as the basis of an annual energy simulation of the test office and indicate that supplementary systems could be used to save energy beyond what is typically realised in side lit office spaces.

Improving the impact of luminance contrast on the window appearance in a conventional office room: Using supplementary lighting strategies

High contrast ratios between windows and surrounding surfaces could cause reduced visibility or discomfort for occupants. Consequently, building users may choose to intervene in lighting conditions through closing blinds and turning on the lamps in order to enhance indoor visual comfort. Such interventions increase projected electric lighting use in buildings. One simple method to prevent these problematic issues is increasing the luminance of the areas surrounding to the bright surface of windows through the use of energy-efficient supplementary lighting, such Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs). This paper reports on the results of a pilot study in conventional office in Brisbane, Australia. The outcomes of this study indicated that a supplementary LED system of approximately 18 W could reduce the luminance contrast on the window wall from values in the order of 117:1 to 33:1. In addition, the results of this experiment suggested that this supplementary strategy could increase the subjective scale appraisal of window appearance by approximately 33%, as well as reducing the likelihood of users’ intention to turn on the ceiling lights by about 27%. It could also diminish the likelihood of occupants’ intention to move the blind down by more than 90%.

Integrating LED lighting design strategies with side daylighting systems to improve interior lighting design of office buildings

A high contrast ratio between windows and surrounding walls may lead to office workers visual discomfort that could negatively affect their satisfaction and productivity. Consequently, occupants may try to adapt their working environment by closing blinds and/ or turning on the lights to enhance indoor visual comfort, which can reduce predicted energy savings. The hypothesis of this study is that reducing luminance contrast ratio on the window wall will improve window appearance which potentially will reduce visual discomfort and decrease workers interventions. Thus, this PhD research proposes a simple strategy to diminish the luminance contrast on the window wall by increasing the luminance of the areas surrounding the windows using supplementary light emitting diode (LED) systems. To test the hypothesis, this investigation will involve three experiments in different office layouts with various window types and orientations in Brisbane, Australia. It will assess user preferences for different luminance patterns in windowed offices featuring flexible, lowpower LED lighting installations that allows multiple lighting design options on the window wall. Detailed luminance and illuminance measures will be used to match quantitative lighting design assessment to user preferences.