Identification of critical input variables for risk-based cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation

An estimation of costs for maintenance and rehabilitation is subject to variation due to the uncertainties of input parameters. This paper presents the results of an analysis to identify input parameters that affect the prediction of variation in road deterioration. Road data obtained from 1688 km of a national highway located in the tropical northeast of Queensland in Australia were used in the analysis. Data were analysed using a probability-based method, the Monte Carlo simulation technique and HDM-4’s roughness prediction model. The results of the analysis indicated that among the input parameters the variability of pavement strength, rut depth, annual equivalent axle load and initial roughness affected the variability of the predicted roughness. The second part of the paper presents an analysis to assess the variation in cost estimates due to the variability of the overall identified critical input parameters.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Development of the benefit finding in multiple sclerosis (MS) caregiving scale: A longitudinal study of relations between benefit finding and adjustment

Benefit finding is a meaning making construct that has been shown to be related to adjustment in people with MS and their carers. This study investigated the dimensions, stability and potency of benefit finding in predicting adjustment over a 12 month interval using a newly developed Benefit Finding in Multiple Sclerosis Scale (BFiMSS). Usable data from 388 persons with MS and 232 carers was obtained from questionnaires completed at Time 1 and 12 months later (Time 2). Factor analysis of the BFiMSS revealed seven psychometrically sound factors: Compassion/Empathy, Spiritual Growth, Mindfulness, Family Relations Growth, Life Style Gains, Personal Growth, New Opportunities. BFiMSS total and factors showed satisfactory internal and retest reliability coefficients, and convergent, criterion and external validity. Results of regression analyses indicated that the Time 1 BFiMSS factors accounted for significant amounts of variance in each of the Time 2 adjustment outcomes (positive states of mind, positive affect, anxiety, depression) after controlling for Time 1 adjustment, and relevant demographic and illness variables. Findings delineate the dimensional structure of benefit finding in MS, the differential links between benefit finding dimensions and adjustment and the temporal unfolding of benefit finding in chronic illness.

A comparative study of manufacturing practices and performance variables

The reported study was conducted to compare and contrast current manufacturing practices between two countries, Australia and Malaysia, and identify the practices that significantly influence their manufacturing performances. The results are based on data collected from surveys using a standard questionnaire in both countries. Evidence indicates that product quality and reliability is the main competitive factor for manufacturers. Maintaining a supplier rating system and regularly updating it with field failure and warranty data and making use of product data management are found to be effective manufacturing practices. In terms of the investigated manufacturing performance, Australian manufacturers are marginally ahead of their Malaysian counterparts. However, Malaysian manufacturers came out ahead on most dimensions of advanced quality and manufacturing practices, particularly in the adoption of product data management, effective supply chains and relationships with suppliers and customers.

Is implementing criterion-referenced assessment worth the effort with gen Y?

Well implemented criterion-referenced assessment (CRA) requires dedicated time and effort, especially in describing realistic expectations of evidence of achievement to students in the form of criteria sheets (or grading rubrics). It is also takes time out of delivering content to teach students how to judge their own work using criteria sheets. In 2007, to engage third year Microbiology students in using criteria sheets for the first time in their degree, we devised an innovative assessment tutorial supported by online resources. We were sceptical of much of the literature that reported ‘agreed’ characteristics of our predominantly gen Y cohort, because of the older ages of the majority of authors. These authors claim gen Y has a propensity for digital media, overconfidence in their own abilities and a collaborative orientation. We rejected this stereotype when developing the tutorial. Evaluations by students were positive and there was no dramatic change to grades for the unit. These results are similar to those in the literature for non gen Y cohorts. This lends support to our claim that giving students control over their own learning, irrespective of their generational label, is worth the time and effort.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Generating rules with predicates, terms and variables from the pruned neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide range of applications. They are, however, not considered sufficient for knowledge representation because of their inability to represent the reasoning process succinctly. This paper proposes a novel methodology Gyan that represents the knowledge of a trained network in the form of restricted first-order predicate rules. The empirical results demonstrate that an equivalent symbolic interpretation in the form of rules with predicates, terms and variables can be derived describing the overall behaviour of the trained ANN with improved comprehensibility while maintaining the accuracy and fidelity of the propositional rules.

Assessing reflection skills in law using criterion-referenced assessment

This paper focuses on the assessment of reflective practice, an issue that has not been fully explored within legal education literature. While the issue of how reflective practice should be taught is one that requires careful consideration, it is beyond the scope of this paper to consider both the teaching and the assessment of reflective practice. Part II of this paper conceptualises reflective practice, and Part III explores the benefits of reflective practice in legal education and the use of reflective writing to assess experiential learning in a legal context. Part IV considers the diverse issues that arise in assessing reflective practice and whether there is an objective method for assessing reflection. Part V of the paper examines the assessment of reflective practice in the context of an exemplar undergraduate law subject that uses a reflective report to assess students’ experiential learning during a court visit.14 Finally, Part VI offers a rubric to facilitate criterion-referenced assessment of reflective practice and thereby provides a framework for assessing reflection skills. It is suggested that the rubric is transferable not only to other law subjects but also to subjects in other disciplines.

Does the summative assessment of real world learning using criterion-referenced assessment need to be discipline specific?

This paper synthesises the existing literature on the contemporary conception of ‘real world’ and compares it with similar notions such as ‘authentic’ and ‘work integrated learning’. While the term ‘real world’ may be partly dependent on the discipline, it does not necessarily follow that the criterion-referenced assessment of ‘real world’ assessment must involve criteria and performance descriptors that are discipline specific. Two examples of summative assessment (court report and trial process exercise) from a final year core subject at the Queensland University of Technology, LWB432 Evidence, emphasise real world learning, are authentic, innovative and better prepare students for the transition into the workplace than more generic forms of assessment such as tutorial participation or oral presentations. The court report requires students to attend a criminal trial in a Queensland Court and complete a two page report on what they saw in practice compared with what they learned in the classroom. The trial process exercise is a 50 minute written closed book activity conducted in tutorials, where students plan questions that they would ask their witness in examination-in-chief, plan questions that they would ask their opponent’s witness in cross-examination, plan questions that they would ask in reexamination given what their opponent asked in cross-examination, and prepare written objections to their opponent’s questions. The trial process exercise simulates the real world, whereas the court report involves observing the real world, and both assessment items are important to the role of counsel. The design of the criterion-referenced assessment rubrics for the court report and trial process exercise is justified by the literature. Notably, the criteria and performance descriptors are not necessarily law specific and this paper highlights the parts that may be easily transferred to other disciplines.

A strain criterion for pull-through failures in crest-fixed steel claddings

Crest-fixed steel claddings made of thin, high strength steel often suffer from local pull-through failures at their screw connections during high wind events such as storms and hurricanes. Adequate design provisions are not available for these cladding systems except for the expensive testing provisions. Since the local pull-through failures in the less ductile steel claddings are initiated by transverse splitting at the fastener holes, numerical studies have not been able to determine the pull-through failure loads. Numerical studies could be used if a reliable splitting criterion is available. Therefore a series of two-span cladding and small scale tests was conducted on a range of crest-fixed steel cladding systems under simulated wind uplift loads. The strains in the sheeting around the critical central support screw fastener holes were measured until the pull-through failure occurred. This paper presents the details of the experimental investigation and the results including a strain criterion for the local pull-through failures in crest-fixed steel claddings.

Validation of the Australian Propensity for Angry Driving Scale (Aus-PADS)

The present study used a university sample to assess the test-retest reliability and validity of the Australian Propensity for Angry Driving Scale (Aus-PADS). The scale has stability over time, and convergent validity was established, as Aus-PADS scores correlated significantly with established anger and impulsivity measures. Discriminant validity was also established, as Aus-PADS scores did not correlate with Venturesomeness scores. The Aus-PADS has demonstrated criterion validity, as scores were correlated with behavioural measures, such as yelling at other drivers, gesturing at other drivers, and feeling angry but not doing anything. Aus-PADS scores reliably predicted the frequency of these behaviours over and above other study variables. No significant relationship between aggressive driving and crash involvement was observed. It was concluded that the Aus-PADS is a reliable and valid tool appropriate for use in Australian research, and that the potential relationship between aggressive driving and crash involvement warrants further investigation with a more representative (and diverse) driver sample.

Extended GNSS ambiguity resolution models with regularization criterion and constraints

This paper firstly presents an extended ambiguity resolution model that deals with an ill-posed problem and constraints among the estimated parameters. In the extended model, the regularization criterion is used instead of the traditional least squares in order to estimate the float ambiguities better. The existing models can be derived from the general model. Secondly, the paper examines the existing ambiguity searching methods from four aspects: exclusion of nuisance integer candidates based on the available integer constraints; integer rounding; integer bootstrapping and integer least squares estimations. Finally, this paper systematically addresses the similarities and differences between the generalized TCAR and decorrelation methods from both theoretical and practical aspects.

Determination of burn criterion for promoted combustion testing

Promoted ignition testing [1–3] is used to determine the relative flammability of metal rods in oxygen-enriched atmospheres. In these tests, a promoter is used to ignite each metal rod to start the sample burning. Experiments were performed to better understand the promoted ignition test by obtaining insight into the effect a burning promoter has on the preheating of a test sample. Test samples of several metallic materials were prepared and coupled to fast-responding thermocouples along their length. Various ignition promoters were used to ignite the test samples. The thermocouple measurements and test video were synchronized to determine temperature increase with respect to time and length along each test sample. A recommended length of test sample that must be consumed to be considered a flammable material was determined based on the preheated zone measured from these tests. This length was determined to be 30 mm (1.18 in.). Validation of this length and its rationale are presented.

Metaheuristic approaches to the hybrid flow shop scheduling problem with a cost-related criterion

In the paper, the flow-shop scheduling problem with parallel machines at each stage (machine center) is studied. For each job its release and due date as well as a processing time for its each operation are given. The scheduling criterion consists of three parts: the total weighted earliness, the total weighted tardiness and the total weighted waiting time. The criterion takes into account the costs of storing semi-manufactured products in the course of production and ready-made products as well as penalties for not meeting the deadlines stated in the conditions of the contract with customer. To solve the problem, three constructive algorithms and three metaheuristics (based one Tabu Search and Simulated Annealing techniques) are developed and experimentally analyzed. All the proposed algorithms operate on the notion of so-called operation processing order, i.e. the order of operations on each machine. We show that the problem of schedule construction on the base of a given operation processing order can be reduced to the linear programming task. We also propose some approximation algorithm for schedule construction and show the conditions of its optimality.