Room ventilation and the risk of airborne infection transmission in three health care settings within a large teaching hospital

Background: Room ventilation is a key determinant of airborne disease transmission. Despite this, ventilation guidelines in hospitals are not founded on robust scientific evidence related to prevention of airborne transmission. Methods: We sought to assess the effect of ventilation rates on influenza, tuberculosis (TB) and rhinovirus infection risk within three distinct rooms in a major urban hospital; a Lung Function Laboratory, Emergency Department (ED) Negative-pressure Isolation Room and an Outpatient Consultation Room were investigated. Air exchange rate measurements were performed in each room using CO2 as a tracer. Gammaitoni and Nucci’s model was employed to estimate infection risk. Results: Current outdoor air exchange rates in the Lung Function Laboratory and ED Isolation Room limited infection risks to between 0.1 and 3.6%. Influenza risk for individuals entering an Outpatient Consultation Room after an infectious individual departed ranged from 3.6 to 20.7%, depending on the duration for which each person occupied the room. Conclusions: Given the absence of definitive ventilation guidelines for hospitals, air exchange measurements combined with modelling afford a useful means of assessing, on a case-by-case basis, the suitability of room ventilation at preventing airborne disease transmission.

Mathematical modelling of the drying of sol gel microspheres

This thesis presents a mathematical model of the evaporation of colloidal sol droplets suspended within an atmosphere consisting of water vapour and air. The main purpose of this work is to investigate the causes of the morphologies arising within the powder collected from a spray dryer into which the precursor sol for Synroc™ is sprayed. The morphology is of significant importance for the application to storage of High Level Liquid Nuclear Waste. We begin by developing a model describing the evaporation of pure liquid droplets in order to establish a framework. This model is developed through the use of continuum mechanics and thermodynamic theory, and we focus on the specific case of pure water droplets. We establish a model considering a pure water vapour atmosphere, and then expand this model to account for the presence of an atmospheric gas such as air. We model colloidal particle-particle interactions and interactions between colloid and electrolyte using DLVO Theory and reaction kinetics, then incorporate these interactions into an expression for net interaction energy of a single particle with all other particles within the droplet. We account for the flow of material due to diffusion, advection, and interaction between species, and expand the pure liquid droplet models to account for the presence of these species. In addition, the process of colloidal agglomeration is modelled. To obtain solutions for our models, we develop a numerical algorithm based on the Control Volume method. To promote numerical stability, we formulate a new method of convergence acceleration. The results of a MATLAB™ code developed from this algorithm are compared with experimental data collected for the purposes of validation, and further analysis is done on the sensitivity of the solution to various controlling parameters.

Coordination of UAV path planning in 2D and 3D in environmental/bio sensing applications

This paper is concerned with the optimal path planning and initialization interval of one or two UAVs in presence of a constant wind. The method compares previous literature results on synchronization of UAVs along convex curves, path planning and sampling in 2D and extends it to 3D. This method can be applied to observe gas/particle emissions inside a control volume during sampling loops. The flight pattern is composed of two phases: a start-up interval and a sampling interval which is represented by a semi-circular path. The methods were tested in four complex model test cases in 2D and 3D as well as one simulated real world scenario in 2D and one in 3D.

Modelling sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers using heterogeneous computing

The objective of this PhD research program is to investigate numerical methods for simulating variably-saturated flow and sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers in a high-performance computing environment. The work is divided into three overlapping tasks: to develop an accurate and stable finite volume discretisation and numerical solution strategy for the variably-saturated flow and salt transport equations; to implement the chosen approach in a high performance computing environment that may have multiple GPUs or CPU cores; and to verify and test the implementation. The geological description of aquifers is often complex, with porous materials possessing highly variable properties, that are best described using unstructured meshes. The finite volume method is a popular method for the solution of the conservation laws that describe sea water intrusion, and is well-suited to unstructured meshes. In this work we apply a control volume-finite element (CV-FE) method to an extension of a recently proposed formulation (Kees and Miller, 2002) for variably saturated groundwater flow. The CV-FE method evaluates fluxes at points where material properties and gradients in pressure and concentration are consistently defined, making it both suitable for heterogeneous media and mass conservative. Using the method of lines, the CV-FE discretisation gives a set of differential algebraic equations (DAEs) amenable to solution using higher-order implicit solvers. Heterogeneous computer systems that use a combination of computational hardware such as CPUs and GPUs, are attractive for scientific computing due to the potential advantages offered by GPUs for accelerating data-parallel operations. We present a C++ library that implements data-parallel methods on both CPU and GPUs. The finite volume discretisation is expressed in terms of these data-parallel operations, which gives an efficient implementation of the nonlinear residual function. This makes the implicit solution of the DAE system possible on the GPU, because the inexact Newton-Krylov method used by the implicit time stepping scheme can approximate the action of a matrix on a vector using residual evaluations. We also propose preconditioning strategies that are amenable to GPU implementation, so that all computationally-intensive aspects of the implicit time stepping scheme are implemented on the GPU. Results are presented that demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed numeric methods and formulation. The formulation offers excellent conservation of mass, and higher-order temporal integration increases both numeric efficiency and accuracy of the solutions. Flux limiting produces accurate, oscillation-free solutions on coarse meshes, where much finer meshes are required to obtain solutions with equivalent accuracy using upstream weighting. The computational efficiency of the software is investigated using CPUs and GPUs on a high-performance workstation. The GPU version offers considerable speedup over the CPU version, with one GPU giving speedup factor of 3 over the eight-core CPU implementation.

Two-scale computational modelling of unsaturated flow in soils exhibiting small scale heterogeneities

Unsaturated water flow in soil is commonly modelled using Richards’ equation, which requires the hydraulic properties of the soil (e.g., porosity, hydraulic conductivity, etc.) to be characterised. Naturally occurring soils, however, are heterogeneous in nature, that is, they are composed of a number of interwoven homogeneous soils each with their own set of hydraulic properties. When the length scale of these soil heterogeneities is small, numerical solution of Richards’ equation is computationally impractical due to the immense effort and refinement required to mesh the actual heterogeneous geometry. A classic way forward is to use a macroscopic model, where the heterogeneous medium is replaced with a fictitious homogeneous medium, which attempts to give the average flow behaviour at the macroscopic scale (i.e., at a scale much larger than the scale of the heterogeneities). Using the homogenisation theory, a macroscopic equation can be derived that takes the form of Richards’ equation with effective parameters. A disadvantage of the macroscopic approach, however, is that it fails in cases when the assumption of local equilibrium does not hold. This limitation has seen the introduction of two-scale models that include at each point in the macroscopic domain an additional flow equation at the scale of the heterogeneities (microscopic scale). This report outlines a well-known two-scale model and contributes to the literature a number of important advances in its numerical implementation. These include the use of an unstructured control volume finite element method and image-based meshing techniques, that allow for irregular micro-scale geometries to be treated, and the use of an exponential time integration scheme that permits both scales to be resolved simultaneously in a completely coupled manner. Numerical comparisons against a classical macroscopic model confirm that only the two-scale model correctly captures the important features of the flow for a range of parameter values.

An endogenously deposited fibrin scaffold determines construct size in the surgically created arteriovenous loop chamber model of tissue engineering

Background: An arteriovenous loop (AVL) enclosed in a polycarbonate chamber in vivo, produces a fibrin exudate which acts as a provisional matrix for the development of a tissue engineered microcirculatory network. Objectives: By administering enoxaparin sodium - an inhibitor of fibrin polymerization, the significance of fibrin scaffold formation on AVL construct size (including the AVL, fibrin scaffold, and new tissue growth into the fibrin), growth, and vascularization were assessed and compared to controls. Methods: In Sprague Dawley rats, an AVL was created on femoral vessels and inserted into a polycarbonate chamber in the groin in 3 control groups (Series I) and 3 experimental groups (Series II). Two hours before surgery and 6 hours post-surgery, saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (0.6 mg/kg, Series II) was administered intra-peritoneally. Thereafter, the rats were injected daily with saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (1.5 mg/kg, Series II) until construct retrieval at 3, 10, or 21 days. The retrieved constructs underwent weight and volume measurements, and morphologic/morphometric analysis of new tissue components. Results: Enoxaparin sodium treatment resulted in the development of smaller AVL constructs at 3, 10, and 21 days. Construct weight and volume were significantly reduced at 10 days (control weight 0.337 ± 0.016 g [Mean ± SEM] vs treated 0.228 ± 0.048, [P < .001]: control volume 0.317 ± 0.015 mL vs treated 0.184 ± 0.039 mL [P < .01]) and 21 days (control weight 0.306 ± 0.053 g vs treated 0.198 ± 0.043 g [P < .01]: control volume 0.285 ± 0.047 mL vs treated 0.148 ± 0.041 mL, [P < .01]). Angiogenesis was delayed in the enoxaparin sodium-treated constructs with the absolute vascular volume significantly decreased at 10 days (control vascular volume 0.029 ± 0.03 mL vs treated 0.012 ± 0.002 mL [P < .05]). Conclusion: In this in vivo tissue engineering model, endogenous, extra-vascularly deposited fibrin volume determines construct size and vascular growth in the first 3 weeks and is, therefore, critical to full construct development.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

On fundamental limitations for rudder roll stabilization of ships

The main purpose of the rudder in ships is course keeping. However, the rudder can also be used, in some cases, to reject undesirable wave produced rolling motions. From a fundamental point of view, the main issues associated with this problem are the presence of a nonminimum phase zero and the single input two output nature of the system. In this paper, the limitations imposed on the achievable closed loop performance due to these issues are analyzed. This gives a deeper understanding of the problem and leads to conclusions regarding the inherent design trade-offs which hold regardless of the control strategy used.

The prolongation of length of stay because of Clostridium difficile infection

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) possibly extends hospital length of stay (LOS); however, the current evidence does not account for the time-dependent bias, ie, when infection is incorrectly analyzed as a baseline covariate. The aim of this study was to determine whether CDI increases LOS after managing this bias. Methods We examined the estimated extra LOS because of CDI using a multistate model. Data from all persons hospitalized >48 hours over 4 years in a tertiary hospital in Australia were analyzed. Persons with health care-associated CDIs were identified. Cox proportional hazards models were applied together with multistate modeling. Results One hundred fifty-eight of 58,942 admissions examined had CDI. The mean extra LOS because of infection was 0.9 days (95% confidence interval: −1.8 to 3.6 days, P = .51) when a multistate model was applied. The hazard of discharge was lower in persons who had CDI (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.42; P < .001) when a Cox proportional hazard model was applied. Conclusion This study is the first to use multistate models to determine the extra LOS because of CDI. Results suggest CDI does not significantly contribute to hospital LOS, contradicting findings published elsewhere. Conversely, when methods prone to result in time-dependent bias were applied to the data, the hazard of discharge significantly increased. These findings contribute to discussion on methods used to evaluate LOS and health care-associated infections.

Two-scale computational modelling of water flow in unsaturated soils containing irregular-shaped inclusions

The focus of this paper is two-dimensional computational modelling of water flow in unsaturated soils consisting of weakly conductive disconnected inclusions embedded in a highly conductive connected matrix. When the inclusions are small, a two-scale Richards’ equation-based model has been proposed in the literature taking the form of an equation with effective parameters governing the macroscopic flow coupled with a microscopic equation, defined at each point in the macroscopic domain, governing the flow in the inclusions. This paper is devoted to a number of advances in the numerical implementation of this model. Namely, by treating the micro-scale as a two-dimensional problem, our solution approach based on a control volume finite element method can be applied to irregular inclusion geometries, and, if necessary, modified to account for additional phenomena (e.g. imposing the macroscopic gradient on the micro-scale via a linear approximation of the macroscopic variable along the microscopic boundary). This is achieved with the help of an exponential integrator for advancing the solution in time. This time integration method completely avoids generation of the Jacobian matrix of the system and hence eases the computation when solving the two-scale model in a completely coupled manner. Numerical simulations are presented for a two-dimensional infiltration problem.