Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Reactive image-based collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft systems

Approximately 20 years have passed now since the NTSB issued its original recommendation to expedite development, certification and production of low-cost proximity warning and conflict detection systems for general aviation [1]. While some systems are in place (TCAS [2]), ¡¨see-and-avoid¡¨ remains the primary means of separation between light aircrafts sharing the national airspace. The requirement for a collision avoidance or sense-and-avoid capability onboard unmanned aircraft has been identified by leading government, industry and regulatory bodies as one of the most significant challenges facing the routine operation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the national airspace system (NAS) [3, 4]. In this thesis, we propose and develop a novel image-based collision avoidance system to detect and avoid an upcoming conflict scenario (with an intruder) without first estimating or filtering range. The proposed collision avoidance system (CAS) uses relative bearing ƒÛ and angular-area subtended ƒê , estimated from an image, to form a test statistic AS C . This test statistic is used in a thresholding technique to decide if a conflict scenario is imminent. If deemed necessary, the system will command the aircraft to perform a manoeuvre based on ƒÛ and constrained by the CAS sensor field-of-view. Through the use of a simulation environment where the UAS is mathematically modelled and a flight controller developed, we show that using Monte Carlo simulations a probability of a Mid Air Collision (MAC) MAC RR or a Near Mid Air Collision (NMAC) RiskRatio can be estimated. We also show the performance gain this system has over a simplified version (bearings-only ƒÛ ). This performance gain is demonstrated in the form of a standard operating characteristic curve. Finally, it is shown that the proposed CAS performs at a level comparable to current manned aviations equivalent level of safety (ELOS) expectations for Class E airspace. In some cases, the CAS may be oversensitive in manoeuvring the owncraft when not necessary, but this constitutes a more conservative and therefore safer, flying procedures in most instances.

Development priority zoning (DPZ)-led scenario simulation for regional land use change : the case of Suichang County, China

China has experienced an extraordinary level of economic development since the 1990s, following excessive competition between different regions. This has resulted in many resource and environmental problems. Land resources, for example, are either abused or wasted in many regions. The strategy of development priority zoning (DPZ), proposed by the Chinese National 11th Five-Year Plan, provides an opportunity to solve these problems by coordinating regional development and protection. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the DPZ strategy should be integrated with regional land use policy. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model for assessing land use change in China led by the DPZ strategy. Land use is characterized by the prioritization of land development, land utilization, land harness and land protection (D-U-H-P). By using the Delphi method, a corresponding suitable prioritization of D-U-H-P for the four types of DPZ, including optimized development zones (ODZ), key development zones (KDZ), restricted development zones (RDZ), and forbidden development zones (FDZ) are identified. Suichang County is used as a case study in which to conduct the simulation of land use change under the RDZ strategy. The findings enable a conceptualization to be made of DPZ-led land use change and the identification of further implications for land use planning generally. The SD model also provides a potential tool for local government to combine DPZ strategy at the national level with land use planning at the local level.

Canadian Crime Control in the New Millennium: The Influence of Neo-conservative U.S. Policies and Practices

An important issue facing Canadians today is crime control and prevention. Research done in the late 1980s and early 1990s by three sociologists shows that Canadian federal criminal justice policies and practices adopted by the Mulroney government from 1984 to 1990 were inconsistent with US ‘law and order’ models in place at that time. However, since the mid‐1990s, Canadian federal and provincial governments have mimicked some US authoritarian and gender‐blind means of curbing crime. The main objective of this paper is to provide some key examples of criminal justice policy transfer from the USA in Canada. At first glance, Canada may appear to be a ‘kinder, gentler nation,’ but not to the extent assumed by many, if not most, outside observers.

Strategic renewal and competitive advantage in opportunity-driven and conservative new ventures

Strategic renewal has received relatively little attention in the context of new ventures. We examine the relationship among strategic renewal, competitive advantage and performance in opportunity-driven and conservative new ventures. Based on longitudinal data of a random sample of almost 373 new ventures, the link between strategic renewal and performance can be better understood by adding the mediating role of competitive advantage. Our results indicate that increased levels of strategic renewal positively relate to competitive advantage in conservative ventures, but not in opportunity-driven ventures. These findings place a different perspective on the dominant view that entrepreneurs should be opportunity maximizers. It suggests that both conservative and opportunity-driven new ventures can be successful if they follow different paths of strategic renewal in shaping competitive advantage.

Analyzing the literature for the link between the conservative Islamic culture of Saudi Arabia and the design of sustainable housing

Saudi Arabia experiences housing shortage for mid and low-income families, which is caused by rapid population growth. This condition is worsened by the fact that the current housing supply has problems in meeting both sustainable requirements and cultural needs of those families. This paper aims to investigate the link between the unique conservative Saudi culture and the design of sustainable housing, while keeping the housing cost affordable for mid and low-income families. The paper is based on a review of literatures on the issues of the Islamic culture and how can they be integrated into the design process of a Saudi house. Findings from literature reveiw suggest several design requirements for accommodating the conservative Saudi Culture in low cost sustainable houses. Such requirements include the implementation of proper usage of windows, and house orientation with a courtyard inside rather than facing the main street will provide natural ventilation while maintaining privacy. The main contribution to the body of knowledge is that this is a new approach to sustainable housing in Saudi Arabia considering not only energy use and architectural design issues but also socio-cultural issues as an essential part of sustainability.

Airborne collision scenario flight tests : impact of angle measurement errors on reactive vision-based avoidance control

The future emergence of many types of airborne vehicles and unpiloted aircraft in the national airspace means collision avoidance is of primary concern in an uncooperative airspace environment. The ability to replicate a pilot’s see and avoid capability using cameras coupled with vision based avoidance control is an important part of an overall collision avoidance strategy. But unfortunately without range collision avoidance has no direct way to guarantee a level of safety. Collision scenario flight tests with two aircraft and a monocular camera threat detection and tracking system were used to study the accuracy of image-derived angle measurements. The effect of image-derived angle errors on reactive vision-based avoidance performance was then studied by simulation. The results show that whilst large angle measurement errors can significantly affect minimum ranging characteristics across a variety of initial conditions and closing speeds, the minimum range is always bounded and a collision never occurs.

Integration of Saudi Arabia’s conservative Islamic culture in sustainable housing design

The cities of Saudi Arabia have perhaps the largest growth rates of cities in the Middle East, such that it has become a cause in shortage of housing for mid and low-income families, as is the case in other developing countries. Even when housing is found, it is not sustainable nor is it providing the cultural needs of those families. The aim of this paper is to integrate the unique conservative Islamic Saudi culture into the design of sustainable housing. This paper is part of a preliminary study of an on-going PhD thesis, which utilises a semistructured interview of a panel of nine experts in collecting the data. The interviews consisted of ten questions ranging from general questions such as stating their expertise and work position to more specific question such as listing the critical success factors and/or barriers for applying sustainability to housing in Saudi Arabia. Since the participants were selected according to their experience, the answers to the interview questions were satisfactory where the generation of the survey questions for the second stage in the PhD thesis took place after analysing the participant’s answers to the interview questions. This paper recommends design requirements for accommodating the conservative Islamic Saudi Culture in low cost sustainable houses. Such requirements include achieving privacy through the use of various types of traditional Saudi architectural elements, such as the method of decorative screening of windows, called Mashrabiya, and having an inner courtyard where the house looks inward rather than outward. Other requirements include educating firms on how to design sustainable housing, educating the public on the advantages of sustainable housing and implementing new laws that enforce the utilisation of sustainable methods to housing construction. This paper contributes towards the body of knowledge by proposing initial findings on how to integrate the conservative Islamic culture of Saudi Arabia into the design of a sustainable house specifically for mid and low-income families. This contribution can be implemented on developing countries in the region that are faced with housing shortage for mid and low-income families.

Conservative surgical debridement as a burn treatment : supporting evidence from a porcine burn model

In thermal deep-dermal burns, surgical debridement is normally used in conjunction with skin grafting or skin substitutes and debridement alone as a burn treatment is not usually practiced. The current study addresses whether or not debridement alone would enhance burn wound healing on small deep-dermal-partial thickness burns. This was a prospective and blinded experimental trial using a porcine deep-dermal-partial thickness burn model. Four burns, approximately 50 cm(2) in size, were created on each of eight pigs. Two burns from each pig were immediately surgically debrided and the other two were not debrided as the internal control. Hydrate gel together with paraffin gauze were used to cover the burns for four pigs and silver dressings for the other four. Clinical assessment of wound healing was conducted over a 6-week period. Skin samples were collected at the end of the experiment and histopathological evaluation was performed. The results show thinner scar formation and lower scar height in the debrided compared with nondebrided wounds in the hydrate gel/paraffin gauze groups. There were no statistically significant differences in wound healing assessment between the debrided and nondebrided wounds dressed with silver dressings. This study provides supporting evidence that immediate debridement with an appropriate dressing and without skin grafting may promote wound healing, suggesting its potential benefit for clinical patients.

An examination of how the military, the conservative press and ministerialist politicians generated support within Queensland for the war in South Africa in 1899 and 1900

This thesis examines the role of conservative newspaper proprietors and editors to generate support for war against the Boers in South Africa. The thesis utilises Rune Ottosen's theoretical model concerning newspapers creating a pro-war mentality, and S.E. Finer's theory on the influences of the military on civilian Government. The pivotal supportive roles of Governor Lamington and Premiers Dickson and Philp and the oppositional role of Premier Dawson are also examined.

A comparative analysis of the conservative bridge transition design approaches

Differential settlement at the bridge approach between the deck and rail track on ground is often considered as a source of challenging technical and economical problem. This caused by the sudden stiffness changes between the bridge deck and the track on ground, and changes in soil stiffness of backfill and sub-grade with soil moisture content and loading history. To minimise the negative social and economic impacts due to poor performances of railway tracks at bridge transition zones, it is important, a special attention to be given at design, construction and maintenance stages. It is critically challenging to obtain an appropriate design solution for any given site condition and most of the existing conventional design approaches are unable to address the actual on-site behaviour due to their inherent assumptions of continuity and lack of clarifying of the local effects. An evaluation of existing design techniques is considered to estimate their contributions to a potential solution for bridge transition zones. This paper analyses five different approaches: the Chinese Standard, the European Standard with three different approaches, and the Australian approach. Each design approach is used to calculate the layer thicknesses, accounting critical design features such as the train speed, the axle load, the backfill subgrade condition, and the dynamic loading response. Considering correlation between track degradation and design parameters, this paper concludes that there is still a need of an optimised design approach for bridge transition zones.

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

'A slap on the wrist'? The conservative agenda in Queensland, Australia

Recent amendments to youth justice legislation in Queensland include opening Children’s Court proceedings, removing the Principle of Detention as a Last Resort, facilitating transfers of 17 year-old offenders to adult prisons, instigating new bail offences, and introducing mandatory boot camp orders. This article examines the context of these changes including the inadequacies of the public policy process, and the impassioned political rhetoric imbued with simplistic slogans. This is a case study of regressive youth justice policy and the article reflects on the many causes underlying the reactive winding back of reform.