Correcting mean-field approximations for birth-death-movement processes

On the microscale, migration, proliferation and death are crucial in the development, homeostasis and repair of an organism; on the macroscale, such effects are important in the sustainability of a population in its environment. Dependent on the relative rates of migration, proliferation and death, spatial heterogeneity may arise within an initially uniform field; this leads to the formation of spatial correlations and can have a negative impact upon population growth. Usually, such effects are neglected in modeling studies and simple phenomenological descriptions, such as the logistic model, are used to model population growth. In this work we outline some methods for analyzing exclusion processes which include agent proliferation, death and motility in two and three spatial dimensions with spatially homogeneous initial conditions. The mean-field description for these types of processes is of logistic form; we show that, under certain parameter conditions, such systems may display large deviations from the mean field, and suggest computationally tractable methods to correct the logistic-type description.

Michel Foucault's 'the birth of biopolitics' and contemporary neo-liberalism debates

Neo-liberalism has become one of the boom concepts of our time. From its original reference point as a descriptor of the economics of the ‘Chicago School’ or authors such as Friedrich von Hayek, neo-liberalism has become an all-purpose concept, explanatory device and basis for social critique. This presentation evaluates Michel Foucault’s 1978–79 lectures, published as The Birth of Biopolitics, to consider how he used the term neo-liberalism, and how this equates with its current uses in critical social and cultural theory. It will be argued that Foucault did not understand neo-liberalism as a dominant ideology in these lectures, but rather as marking a point of inflection in the historical evolution of liberal political philosophies of government. It will also be argued that his interpretation of neo-liberalism was more nuanced and more comparative than more recent contributions. The article points towards an attempt to theorize comparative historical models of liberal capitalism.

A Transformational Role : Donor and charity perspectives on major giving in Australia

Tapping into the thoughts of nearly 50 Australians involved with major giving, this study seeks to know more about why and how people give in what might be called ‘momentous’ ways. It tracks both their triumphs and trials. Perhaps most importantly, it gives a public voice to the perceptions, attitudes, concerns and stories of Australians who have chosen to act philanthropically in a sizeable and ongoing way. In counterpoint, the views, experiences and frustrations of seasoned fundraising professionals who work to generate major giving across a range of causes form the other voices in this study. Thus, donors talk about giving, and occasionally raising support from their peers, and fundraisers talk about developing major gifts. This research has been supported by the Perpetual Foundation, the EF and SL Gluyas Trust and the Edward Corbould Charitable Trust under the management of Perpetual Trustee Company Ltd.

Increased traffic exposure and negative birth outcomes : a prospective cohort in Australia

Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

Maternal exposure to ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia

Almost 10% of all births are preterm and 2.2% are stillbirths globally. Recent research has suggested that environmental factors may be a contributory cause to these adverse birth outcomes. The authors examined the relationship between ambient temperature and preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia between 2005 and 2009 (n = 101,870). They used a Cox proportional hazard model with live birth and stillbirth as competing risks. They also examined if there were periods of the pregnancy where exposure to high temperatures had a greater effect. Exposure to higher ambient temperatures during pregnancy increased the risk of stillbirth. The hazard ratio for stillbirth was 0.3 at 12 °C relative to the reference temperature at 21 °C. The temperature effect was greatest for fetuses of less than 36 weeks of gestation. There was an association between higher temperature and shorter gestation, as the hazard ratio for live birth was 0.96 at 15 °C and 1.02 at 25 °C. This effect was greatest at later gestational ages. The results provide strong evidence of an association between increased temperature and increased risk of stillbirth and shorter gestations.

The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Women's perceptions of their healthcare experience when they choose not to breastfeed

Research Question How do women who choose not to breastfeed perceive their healthcare experience? Method This qualitative research study used a phenomenographic approach to explore the healthcare experience of women who do not breastfeed. Seven women were interviewed about their healthcare experience relating to their choice of feeding, approximately four weeks after giving birth. Six conceptions were identified and an outcome space was developed to demonstrate the relationships and meaning of the conceptions in a visual format. Findings There were five unmet needs identified by the participants during this study. These needs included equity, self sufficiency, support, education and the need not to feel pressured. Conclusion Women in this study who chose not to breastfeed identified important areas where they felt that their needs were not met. In keeping with the Code of Ethics for Nurses and Midwives, the identified needs of women who do not breastfeed must be addressed in a caring, compassionate and just manner. The care and education of women who formula feed should be of the highest standard possible, even if the choice not to breastfeed is not the preferred choice of healthcare professionals.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.