A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Using honeypots to analyse anomalous Internet activities

Monitoring Internet traffic is critical in order to acquire a good understanding of threats to computer and network security and in designing efficient computer security systems. Researchers and network administrators have applied several approaches to monitoring traffic for malicious content. These techniques include monitoring network components, aggregating IDS alerts, and monitoring unused IP address spaces. Another method for monitoring and analyzing malicious traffic, which has been widely tried and accepted, is the use of honeypots. Honeypots are very valuable security resources for gathering artefacts associated with a variety of Internet attack activities. As honeypots run no production services, any contact with them is considered potentially malicious or suspicious by definition. This unique characteristic of the honeypot reduces the amount of collected traffic and makes it a more valuable source of information than other existing techniques. Currently, there is insufficient research in the honeypot data analysis field. To date, most of the work on honeypots has been devoted to the design of new honeypots or optimizing the current ones. Approaches for analyzing data collected from honeypots, especially low-interaction honeypots, are presently immature, while analysis techniques are manual and focus mainly on identifying existing attacks. This research addresses the need for developing more advanced techniques for analyzing Internet traffic data collected from low-interaction honeypots. We believe that characterizing honeypot traffic will improve the security of networks and, if the honeypot data is handled in time, give early signs of new vulnerabilities or breakouts of new automated malicious codes, such as worms. The outcomes of this research include: • Identification of repeated use of attack tools and attack processes through grouping activities that exhibit similar packet inter-arrival time distributions using the cliquing algorithm; • Application of principal component analysis to detect the structure of attackers’ activities present in low-interaction honeypots and to visualize attackers’ behaviors; • Detection of new attacks in low-interaction honeypot traffic through the use of the principal component’s residual space and the square prediction error statistic; • Real-time detection of new attacks using recursive principal component analysis; • A proof of concept implementation for honeypot traffic analysis and real time monitoring.

The regulation of health professionals

This chapter is about the role of law in the management of the health workforce in Australia. Health professionals play an important role in the health system as the providers of treatment and care — without health professionals health systems would not function. The relationship between health professionals and patients has always been complex and is often subject to some form of regulation by the state. The first surviving written reference to such legal regulation dates from 1795-1750 BCE when the Babylonian Code of Hammurabi stated: “If a physician make a large incision with the operating knife, and kill him, or open a tumor with the operating knife, and cut out the eye, his hands shall be cut off.” Alexander the Great recommended the crucifixion of health professionals who killed their patients. Fortunately, the law in Australia prescribes lesser penalties for erring health professionals, but at the heart of modern regulation are similar concerns to those that underpinned the ancient Babylonian Code — to create conditions to ensure the safety of patients and the provision of quality services by health professionals.

Use of IP addresses for high rate flooding attack detection

High-rate flooding attacks (aka Distributed Denial of Service or DDoS attacks) continue to constitute a pernicious threat within the Internet domain. In this work we demonstrate how using packet source IP addresses coupled with a change-point analysis of the rate of arrival of new IP addresses may be sufficient to detect the onset of a high-rate flooding attack. Importantly, minimizing the number of features to be examined, directly addresses the issue of scalability of the detection process to higher network speeds. Using a proof of concept implementation we have shown how pre-onset IP addresses can be efficiently represented using a bit vector and used to modify a “white list” filter in a firewall as part of the mitigation strategy.

Longing to belong : social inclusion and wellbeing among youth with refugee backgrounds in the first three years in Melbourne, Australia

For young people with refugee backgrounds, establishing a sense of belonging to their family and community, and to their country of resettlement is essential for wellbeing. This paper describes the psychosocial factors associated with subjective health and wellbeing outcomes among a cohort of 97 refugee youth (aged 11-19) during their first three years in Melbourne, Australia. The findings reported here are drawn from the Good Starts Study, a longitudinal investigation of settlement and wellbeing among refugee youth conducted between 2004 and 2008. The overall aim of Good Starts was to identify the psychosocial factors that assist youth with refugee backgrounds in making a good start in their new country. A particular focus was on key transitions: from pre-arrival to Australia, from the language school to mainstream school, and from mainstream school to higher education or to the workforce. Good Starts used a mix of both method and theory from anthropology and social epidemiology. Using standardized measures of wellbeing and generalised estimating equations to model the predictors of wellbeing over time, this paper reports that key factors strongly associated with wellbeing outcomes are those that can be described as indicators of belonging e the most important being subjective social status in the broader Australian community, perceived discrimination and bullying. We argue that settlement specific policies and programs can ultimately be effective if embedded within a broader socially inclusive society - one that offers real opportunities for youth with refugee backgrounds to flourish.

Does the acid hydrolysis-incubation method measure meaningful soil organic carbon pools?

The literature was reviewed and analyzed to determine the feasibility of using a combination of acid hydrolysis and CO2-C release during long-term incubation to determine soil organic carbon (SOC) pool sizes and mean residence times (MRTs). Analysis of 1100 data points showed the SOC remaining after hydrolysis with 6 M HCI ranged from 30 to 80% of the total SOC depending on soil type, depth, texture, and management. Nonhydrolyzable carbon (NHC) in conventional till soils represented 48% of SOC; no-till averaged 56%, forest 55%, and grassland 56%. Carbon dates showed an average of 1200 yr greater MRT for the NHC fraction than total SOC. Longterm incubation, involving measurement of CO2 evolution and curve fitting, measured active and slow pools. Active-pool C comprised 2 to 8% of the SOC with MRTs of days to months; the slow pool comprised 45 to 65% of the SOC and had MRTs of 10 to 80 yr. Comparison of field C-14 and (13) C data with hydrolysis-incubation data showed a high correlation between independent techniques across soil types and experiments. There were large differences in MRTs depending on the length of the experiment. Insertion of hydrolysis-incubation derived estimates of active (C-a), slow (C-s), and resistant Pools (C-r) into the DAYCENT model provided estimates of daily field CO2 evolution rates. These were well correlated with field CO2 measurements. Although not without some interpretation problems, acid hydrolysis-laboratory incubation is useful for determining SOC pools and fluxes especially when used in combination with associated measurements.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

A Heuristic algorithm for fixed train runtime

This paper proposes a train movement model with fixed runtime that can be employed to find feasible control strategies for a single train along an inter-city railway line. The objective of the model is to minimize arrival delays at each station along railway lines. However, train movement is a typical nonlinear problem for complex running environments and different requirements. A heuristic algorithm is developed to solve the problem in this paper and the simulation results show that the train could overcome the disturbance from train delay and coordinates the operation strategies to sure punctual arrival of trains at the destination. The developed algorithm can also be used to evaluate the running reliability of trains in scheduled timetables.

Structural health monitoring of bridges : source localisation in acoustic emission technique

Managing the sustainability of urban infrastructure requires regular health monitoring of key infrastructure such as bridges. The process of structural health monitoring involves monitoring a structure over a period of time using appropriate sensors, extracting damage sensitive features from the measurements made by the sensors, and analysing these features to determine the current state of the structure. Various techniques are available for structural health monitoring of structures, and acoustic emission is one technique that is finding an increasing use in the monitoring of civil infrastructures such as bridges. Acoustic emission technique is based on the recording of stress waves generated by rapid release of energy inside a material, followed by analysis of recorded signals to locate and identify the source of emission and assess its severity. This chapter first provides a brief background of the acoustic emission technique and the process of source localization. Results from laboratory experiments conducted to explore several aspects of the source localization process are also presented. The findings from the study can be expected to enhance knowledge of the acoustic emission process, and to aid the development of effective bridge structure diagnostics systems.

Modelling of operating theatres using simulation

This paper describes the development of a simulation model for operating theatres. Elective patient scheduling is complicated by several factors; stochastic demand for resources due to variation in the nature and severity of a patient’s illness, unexpected complications in a patient’s course of treatment and the arrival of non-scheduled emergency patients which compete for resources. Extend simulation software was used for its ability to represent highly complex systems and analyse model outputs. Patient arrivals and lengths of surgery are determined by analysis of historical data. The model was used to explore the effects increasing patient arrivals and alternative elective patient admission disciplines would have on the performance measures. The model can be used as a decision support system for hospital planners.

Survey of Spring Oats for Barley Yellow Dwarf Viruses in Illinois

During the spring of 1987, 1,215 samples of spring oats (Avena sativa L.) were collected in Madison, Champaign, Woodford, Warren, and DeKalb counties, Illinois. At each site on each of three sampling dates, 45 samples were collected (regardless of symptoms) in a W pattern in I ha and tested for the PAY, MAV, RPV, and RMV serotypes of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) by direct doubleantibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RMV was not detected at any location. PAY and RPV were detected at all locations, as early as 17 April in Champaign County. The incidences of P A V and RPV from all plants sampled ranged from 2 to 64% and from 2 to 88%, respectively. Highest incidences of both strains were in May samples [rom Woodford County. MAV was detected in lower incidences (2-16%) only in samples from the central region of the state (Champaign, Woodford, and Warren counties). The presence of MA V serotypes was confirmed in triple-antibody sandwich ELISA with the MA V -specific MAFF2 monoclonal antibody from L. Torrance. In the last previous survey for BYDV in Illinois during 1967-1968 (1), about 75% of the isolates were PAY and about 20% were RPV; single isolates of RMV and MAV were found. Twenty years later, 55% were PAY, 39% were RPV, and 6% were MAV.

Pedagogy and participation : literacy education for low-literate refugee students of African origin in a western school system

For ESL teachers working with low-literate adolescents the challenge is to provide instruction in basic literacy capabilities while also realising the benefits of interactive and dialogic pedagogies advocated for the students. In this article we look at literacy pedagogy for refugees of African origin in Australian classrooms. We report on an interview study conducted in an intensive English language school for new arrival adolescents and in three regular secondary schools. Brian Street’s ideological model is used. From this perspective, literacy entails not only technical skills, but also social and cultural ways of making meaning that are embedded within relations of power. The findings showed that teachers were strengthening control of instruction to enable mastery of technical capabilities in basic literacy and genre analysis. We suggest that this approach should be supplemented by a critical approach transforming relations of linguistic power that exclude, marginalise and humiliate the study students in the classroom.

Improved design method for biosecurity surveillance and early detection of non-indigenous rats

A recent advance in biosecurity surveillance design aims to benefit island conservation through early and improved detection of incursions by non-indigenous species. The novel aspects of the design are that it achieves a specified power of detection in a cost-managed system, while acknowledging heterogeneity of risk in the study area and stratifying the area to target surveillance deployment. The design also utilises a variety of surveillance system components, such as formal scientific surveys, trapping methods, and incidental sightings by non-biologist observers. These advances in design were applied to black rats (Rattus rattus) representing the group of invasive rats including R. norvegicus, and R. exulans, which are potential threats to Barrow Island, Australia, a high value conservation nature reserve where a proposed liquefied natural gas development is a potential source of incursions. Rats are important to consider as they are prevalent invaders worldwide, difficult to detect early when present in low numbers, and able to spread and establish relatively quickly after arrival. The ‘exemplar’ design for the black rat is then applied in a manner that enables the detection of a range of non-indigenous species of rat that could potentially be introduced. Many of the design decisions were based on expert opinion as data gaps exist in empirical data. The surveillance system was able to take into account factors such as collateral effects on native species, the availability of limited resources on an offshore island, financial costs, demands on expertise and other logistical constraints. We demonstrate the flexibility and robustness of the surveillance system and discuss how it could be updated as empirical data are collected to supplement expert opinion and provide a basis for adaptive management. Overall, the surveillance system promotes an efficient use of resources while providing defined power to detect early rat incursions, translating to reduced environmental, resourcing and financial costs.

Aurora : an illustrated novella

Aurora, an illustrated novella, is a retelling of the classic fairytale Sleeping Beauty, set on the Australian coast around the grounds of the family lighthouse. Instead of following in the footsteps of tradition, this tale focuses on the long time Aurora is cursed to sleep by the malevolent Minerva; we follow Aurora as she voyages into the unconscious. Hunted by Minerva through the shifting landscape of her dreams, Aurora is dogged by a nagging pull towards the light—there is something she has left behind. Eventually, realising she must face Minerva to break the curse, they stage a battle of the minds in which Aurora triumphs, having grasped the power of her thoughts, her words. Aurora, an Australian fairytale, is a story of self-empowerment, the ability to shape destiny and the power of the mind. The exegesis examines a two-pronged question: is the illustrated book for young adults—graphic novel—relevant to a contemporary readership, and, is the graphic novel, where text and image intersect, a suitably specular genre in which to explore the unconscious? It establishes the language of the unconscious and the meaning of the term ‘graphic novel’, before investigating the place of the illustrated book for an older readership in a contemporary market, particularly exploring visual literacy and the way text and image—a hybrid narrative—work together. It then studies the aptitude of graphic literature to representing the unconscious and looks at two pioneers of the form: Audrey Niffenegger, specifically her visual novel The Three Incestuous Sisters, and Shaun Tan, and his graphic novel The Arrival. Finally, it reflects upon the creative work, Aurora, in light of three concerns: how best to develop a narrative able to relay the dreaming story; how to bestow a certain ‘Australianess’ upon the text and images; and the dilemma of designing an illustrated book for an older readership.