The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Telephone reliability of the Frenchay Activity Index and EQ-5D amongst older adults

Background Older adults may find it problematic to attend hospital appointments due to the difficulty associated with travelling to, within and from a hospital facility for the purpose of a face-to-face assessment. This study aims to investigate equivalence between telephone and face-to-face administration for the Frenchay Activities Index (FAI) and the Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D) generic health-related quality of life instrument amongst an older adult population. Methods Patients aged >65 (n = 53) who had been discharged to the community following an acute hospital admission underwent telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments seven days prior to attending a hospital outpatient appointment where they completed a face-to-face administration of these instruments. Results Overall, 40 subjects' datasets were complete for both assessments and included in analysis. The FAI items had high levels of agreement between the two modes of administration (item kappa's ranged 0.73 to 1.00) as did the EQ-5D (item kappa's ranged 0.67–0.83). For the FAI, EQ-5D VAS and EQ-5D utility score, intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.94, 0.58 and 0.82 respectively with paired t-tests indicating no significant systematic difference (p = 0.100, p = 0.690 and p = 0.290 respectively). Conclusion Telephone administration of the FAI and EQ-5D instruments provides comparable results to face-to-face administration amongst older adults deemed to have cognitive functioning intact at a basic level, indicating that this is a suitable alternate approach for collection of this information.

Osteoarthritis Index delivered by mobile phone (m-WOMAC) is valid, reliable, and responsive

Objectives: To evaluate the validity, reliability and responsiveness of EDC using the WOMAC® NRS 3.1 Index on Motorola V3 mobile phones. ---------- Methods: Patients with osteoarthritis (OA) undergoing primary unilateral hip or knee joint replacement surgery were assessed pre-operatively and 3-4 months post-operatively. Patients completed the WOMAC® Index in paper (p-WOMAC®) and electronic (m-WOMAC®) format in random order. ---------- Results: 24 men and 38 women with hip and knee OA participated and successfully completed the m-WOMAC® questionnaire. Pearson correlations between the summated total index scores for the p-WOMAC® and m-WOMAC® pre- and post-surgery were 0.98 and 0.99 (p<0.0001). There was no clinically important or statistically significant between-method difference in the adjusted total summated scores, pre- and post-surgery (adjusted mean difference = 4.44, p = 0.474 and 1.73, p = 0.781). Internal consistency estimates of m-WOMAC® reliability were 0.87 – 0.98. The m-WOMAC® detected clinically important, statistically significant (p<0.0001) improvements in pain, stiffness, function and total index score. ---------- Conclusions: Sixty-two patients with hip and knee OA successfully completed EDC by Motorola V3 mobile phone using the m-WOMAC® NRS3.1 Index; completion times averaging only 1-1.5 minutes longer than the p-WOMAC® Index. Data were successfully and securely transmitted from patients in Australia to a server in the USA. There was close agreement and no significant differences between m-WOMAC® and p-WOMAC® scores. This study confirms the validity, reliability and responsiveness of the Exco InTouch engineered, Java-based m-WOMAC® Index application. EDC with the m-WOMAC® Index provides unique opportunities for using quantitative measurement in clinical research and practice.

The Eat Smart Study : a randomised controlled trial of a reduced carbohydrate versus a low fat diet for weight loss in obese adolescents

Background Despite the recognition of obesity in young people as a key health issue, there is limited evidence to inform health professionals regarding the most appropriate treatment options. The Eat Smart study aims to contribute to the knowledge base of effective dietary strategies for the clinical management of the obese adolescent and examine the cardiometablic effects of a reduced carbohydrate diet versus a low fat diet. Methods and design Eat Smart is a randomised controlled trial and aims to recruit 100 adolescents over a 2½ year period. Families will be invited to participate following referral by their health professional who has recommended weight management. Participants will be overweight as defined by a body mass index (BMI) greater than the 90th percentile, using CDC 2000 growth charts. An accredited 6-week psychological life skills program ‘FRIENDS for Life’, which is designed to provide behaviour change and coping skills will be undertaken prior to volunteers being randomised to group. The intervention arms include a structured reduced carbohydrate or a structured low fat dietary program based on an individualised energy prescription. The intervention will involve a series of dietetic appointments over 24 weeks. The control group will commence the dietary program of their choice after a 12 week period. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, week 12 and week 24. The primary outcome measure will be change in BMI z-score. A range of secondary outcome measures including body composition, lipid fractions, inflammatory markers, social and psychological measures will be measured. Discussion The chronic and difficult nature of treating the obese adolescent is increasingly recognised by clinicians and has highlighted the need for research aimed at providing effective intervention strategies, particularly for use in the tertiary setting. A structured reduced carbohydrate approach may provide a dietary pattern that some families will find more sustainable and effective than the conventional low fat dietary approach currently advocated. This study aims to investigate the acceptability and effectiveness of a structured reduced dietary carbohydrate intervention and will compare the outcomes of this approach with a structured low fat eating plan. Trial Registration: The protocol for this study is registered with the International Clinical Trials Registry (ISRCTN49438757).

Encyclopedia contributions : entries S-Z in Oxford Companion to Australian Gardens

Shelton, E.M. (p.548); Sherwood Arboretum (p.550); Soutter, William (pp.563-4); Styles (pp.575-6); Summer-House (579-580); Trapnell, W.G. (p.602); Tropical Gardens (pp.604-5);Verandah Gardening (p.614); Wickham Park (p.642); Wijaya, Made (p.642); Williams, George (p.644); Williams Keith A (p.644).

An improved method to detect damage using modal strain energy based damage index

This paper presents two novel concepts to enhance the accuracy of damage detection using the Modal Strain Energy based Damage Index (MSEDI) with the presence of noise in the mode shape data. Firstly, the paper presents a sequential curve fitting technique that reduces the effect of noise on the calculation process of the MSEDI, more effectively than the two commonly used curve fitting techniques; namely, polynomial and Fourier’s series. Secondly, a probability based Generalized Damage Localization Index (GDLI) is proposed as a viable improvement to the damage detection process. The study uses a validated ABAQUS finite-element model of a reinforced concrete beam to obtain mode shape data in the undamaged and damaged states. Noise is simulated by adding three levels of random noise (1%, 3%, and 5%) to the mode shape data. Results show that damage detection is enhanced with increased number of modes and samples used with the GDLI.

The health and cost implications of high body mass index in Australian Defence Force personnel.

BACKGROUND: Frequent illness and injury among workers with high body mass index (BMI) can raise the costs of employee healthcare and reduce workforce maintenance and productivity. These issues are particularly important in vocational settings such as the military, which require good physical health, regular attendance and teamwork to operate efficiently. The purpose of this study was to compare the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage and administrative outcomes among Australian Defence Force personnel with varying BMI. METHODS: Personnel were grouped into cohorts according to the following ranges for (BMI): normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m²; n = 197), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m²; n = 154) and obese (≥30 kg/m²) with restricted body fat (≤28 % for females, ≤24 % for males) (n = 148) and with no restriction on body fat (n = 180). Medical records for each individual were audited retrospectively to record the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage (i.e., consultation with medical specialists, hospital stays, medical investigations, prescriptions) and administrative outcomes (e.g., discharge from service) over one year. These data were then grouped and compared between the cohorts. RESULTS: The prevalence of injury and illness, cost of medical specialist consultations and cost of medical scans were all higher (p <0.05) in both obese cohorts compared with the normal cohort. The estimated productivity losses from restricted work days were also higher (p <0.05) in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the normal cohort. Within the obese cohort, the prevalence of injury and illness, healthcare usage and productivity were not significantly greater in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the cohort with restricted body fat. The number of restricted work days, the rate of re-classification of Medical Employment Classification and the rate of discharge from service were similar between all four cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI in the military increases healthcare usage, but does not disrupt workforce maintenance. The greater prevalence of injury and illness, greater healthcare usage and lower productivity in obese Australian Defence Force personnel is not related to higher levels of body fat.

Knee extensor strength differences in obese and healthy-weight 10-13 year olds

The purpose of this study was to investigate if obese children have reduced knee extensor (KE) strength and to explore the relationship between adiposity and KE strength. An observational case-control study was conducted in three Australian states, recruiting obese [n=107 (51 female, 56 male)] and healthy-weight [n=132 (56 female, 76 male)] 10–13 year old children. Body mass index, body composition (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry), isokinetic/isometric peak KE torques (dynamometry) and physical activity (accelerometry) were assessed. Results revealed that compared with their healthy-weight peers, obese children had higher absolute KE torques (P≤0.005), equivocal KE torques when allometrically normalized for fat-free mass (FFM) (P≥0.448) but lower relative KE torques when allometrically normalized for body mass (P≤0.008). Adjustments for maternal education, income and accelerometry had little impact on group differences, except for isometric KE torques relative to body mass which were no longer significantly lower in obese children (P≥0.013, not significant after controlling for multiple comparisons). Percent body fat was inversely related to KE torques relative to body mass (r= -0.22 to -0.35, P≤0.002), irrespective of maternal education, income or accelerometry. In conclusion, while obese children have higher absolute KE strength and FFM, they have less functional KE strength (relative to mass) available for weight-bearing activities than healthy-weight children. The finding that FFM-normalized KE torques did not differ suggests that the intrinsic contractile properties of the KE muscles are unaffected by obesity. Future research is needed to see if deficits in KE strength relative to mass translate into functional limitations in weight-bearing activities.

Using the index for inclusion to develop inclusive school communities

This chapter provides an overview of how school communities can work together in processes or review and development to strive towards a more inclusive approach to education. The writers of this chapter have been using a resource called the Index for Inclusion (Booth & Ainscow, 2005, 2011) for a number of years in Australia and in a pilot trail in New Zealand to support education staff in processes of review, with the aim to increase the participation and learning of all students. The resource supports the development of collaborative community processes and defines inclusion as ‘putting values into action’ (Booth & Ainscow, 2011, p.18). The process of review and development for more inclusive and socially just schools supports the development of a school culture, policy and practice where people are valued and treated with respect for their varied knowledge and experiences. In our experience, this resource has been useful to challenge our thinking about education in school communities and in region/districts about inclusive school development. We suggest the Index framework is broad enough to be used in a range of settings and countries. The resource is also useful for pre-service and in-service teacher development to provoke reflection and discussion about inclusion. This chapter provides an overview of the dimensions and framework that inform the Index of Inclusion. We discuss how the Index can be used in school contexts and draw on our own experience to give real examples of how teachers, paraprofessionals, students, principals and parents have experienced the Index when used in their local school communities in Australia and New Zealand. The chapter concludes with some points for discussion to challenge the status quo in schools and to inspire teachers to work towards a more socially just society through making changes at a school level.

The decline in activities of daily living at discharge (DADLD) index : stratifying patients at lower and higher risk

Background: Decreased ability to perform Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) during hospitalisation has negative consequences for patients and health service delivery. Objective: To develop an Index to stratify patients at lower and higher risk of a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge. Design: Prospective two cohort study comprising a derivation (n=389; mean age 82.3 years; SD� 7.1) and a validation cohort (n=153; mean age 81.5 years; SD� 6.1). Patients and setting: General medical patients aged = 70 years admitted to three university-affiliated acute care hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Measurement and main results: The short ADL Scale was used to identify a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs from premorbid to discharge. In the derivation cohort, 77 patients (19.8%) experienced a significant decline. Four significant factors were identified for patients independent at baseline: 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with bathing'; 'difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)'; 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework'; a 'history of experiencing at least one fall in the previous 90 days prior to hospital admission' in addition to 'independent at baseline', which was protective against decline at discharge. 'Difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)' and 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework' were also predictors for patients dependent in ADLs at baseline. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the DADLD dichotomised risk scores were: 83.1% (95% CI 72.8; 90.7); 60.5% (95% CI 54.8; 65.9); 34.2% (95% CI 27.5; 41.5); 93.5% (95% CI 89.2; 96.5). In the validation cohort, 47 patients (30.7%) experienced a significant decline. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the DADLD were: 78.7% (95% CI 64.3; 89.3); 69.8% (95% CI 60.1, 78.3); 53.6% (95% CI 41.2; 65.7); 88.1% (95% CI 79.2; 94.1). Conclusions: The DADLD Index is a useful tool for identifying patients at higher risk of decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge.

Steps towards the validation of the Trendelenburg test : The effect of experimentally reduced hip abductor muscle function on frontal plane mechanics

Introduction: The Trendelenburg Test (TT) is used to assess the functional strength of the hip abductor muscles (HABD), their ability to control frontal plane motion of the pelvis, and the ability of the lumbopelvic complex to transfer load into single leg stance. Rationale: Although a standard method to perform the test has been described for use within clinical populations, no study has directly investigated Trendelenburg’s hypotheses. Purpose: To investigate the validity of the TT using an ultrasound guided nerve block (UNB) of the superior gluteal nerve and determine whether the reduction in HABD strength would result in the theorized mechanical compensatory strategies measured during the TT. Methods: Quasi-experimental design using a convenience sample of nine healthy males. Only subjects with no current or previous injury to the lumbar spine, pelvis, or lower extremities, and no previous surgeries were included. Force dynamometry was used to evaluation HABD strength (%BW). 2D mechanics were used to evaluate contralateral pelvic drop (cMPD), change in contralateral pelvic drop (∆cMPD), ipsilateral hip adduction (iHADD) and ipsilateral trunk sway (TRUNK) measured in degrees (°). All measures were collected prior to and following a UNB on the superior gluteal nerve performed by an interventional radiologist. Results: Subjects’ age was median 31yrs (IQR:22-32yrs); and weight was median 73kg (IQR:67-81kg). An average 52% reduction of HABD strength (z=2.36,p=0.02) resulted following the UNB. No differences were found in cMPD or ∆cMPD (z=0.01,p= 0.99, z=-0.67,p=0.49). Individual changes in biomechanics show no consistency between subjects and non-systematic changes across the group. One subject demonstrated the mechanical compensations described by Trendelenburg. Discussion: The TT should not be used as screening measure for HABD strength in populations demonstrating strength greater than 30%BW but reserved for use with populations with marked HABD weakness. Importance: This study presents data regarding a critical level of HABD strength required to support the pelvis during the TT.

Modal flexibility method for structural damage detection in suspension bridges

Suspension bridges meet the steadily growing demand for lighter and longer bridges in today’s infrastructure systems. These bridges are designed to have long life spans, but with age, their main cables and hangers could suffer from corrosion and fatigue. There is a need for a simple and reliable procedure to detect and locate such damage, so that appropriate retrofitting can be carried out to prevent bridge failure. Damage in a structure causes changes in its properties (mass, damping and stiffness) which in turn will cause changes in its vibration characteristics (natural frequencies, modal damping and mode shapes). Methods based on modal flexibility, which depends on both the natural frequencies and mode shapes, have the potential for damage detection. They have been applied successfully to beam and plate elements, trusses and simple structures in reinforced concrete and steel. However very limited applications for damage detection in suspension bridges have been identified to date. This paper examines the potential of modal flexibility methods for damage detection and localization of a suspension bridge under different damage scenarios in the main cables and hangers using numerical simulation techniques. Validated finite element model (FEM) of a suspension bridge is used to acquire mass normalized mode shape vectors and natural frequencies at intact and damaged states. Damage scenarios will be simulated in the validated FE models by varying stiffness of the damaged structural members. The capability of damage index based on modal flexibility to detect and locate damage is evaluated. Results confirm that modal flexibility based methods have the ability to successfully identify damage in suspension bridge main cables and hangers.

Coordinated control of grid connected photovoltaic reactive power and battery energy storage systems to improve the voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) as well as increasing peak load demand has resulted in poor voltage profile for some residential distribution networks. This paper proposes coordinated use of PV and Battery Energy Storage (BES) to address voltage rise and/or dip problems. The reactive capability of PV inverter combined with droop based BES system is evaluated for rural and urban scenarios (having different R/X ratios). Results show that reactive compensation from PV inverters alone is sufficient to maintain acceptable voltage profile in an urban scenario (low resistance feeder), whereas, coordinated PV and BES support is required for the rural scenario (high resistance feeder). Constant as well as variable droop based BES schemes are analyzed. The required BES sizing and associated cost to maintain the acceptable voltage profile under both schemes is presented. Uncertainties in PV generation and load are considered, with probabilistic estimation of PV generation and randomness in load modeled to characterize the effective utilization of BES. Actual PV generation data and distribution system network data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.