The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

The influence of ambient temperature on birth outcomes in Brisbane, Australia

Lately, there has been increasing interest in the association between temperature and adverse birth outcomes including preterm birth (PTB) and stillbirth. PTB is a major predictor of many diseases later in life, and stillbirth is a devastating event for parents and families. The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal pattern of adverse birth outcomes, and to examine possible associations of maternal exposure to temperature with PTB and stillbirth. We also aimed to identify if there were any periods of the pregnancy where exposure to temperature was particularly harmful. A retrospective cohort study design was used and we retrieved individual birth records from the Queensland Health Perinatal Data Collection Unit for all singleton births (excluding twins and triplets) delivered in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009. We obtained weather data (including hourly relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature) and air-pollution data (including PM10, SO2 and O3) from the Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management. We used survival analyses with the time-dependent variables of temperature, humidity and air pollution, and the competing risks of stillbirth and live birth. To assess the monthly pattern of the birth outcomes, we fitted month of pregnancy as a time-dependent variable. We examined the seasonal pattern of the birth outcomes and the relationship between exposure to high or low temperatures and birth outcomes over the four lag weeks before birth. We further stratified by categorisation of PTB: extreme PTB (< 28 weeks of gestation), PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation), and term birth (≥ 37 weeks of gestation). Lastly, we examined the effect of temperature variation in each week of the pregnancy on birth outcomes. There was a bimodal seasonal pattern in gestation length. After adjusting for temperature, the seasonal pattern changed from bimodal, to only one peak in winter. The risk of stillbirth was statistically significant lower in March compared with January. After adjusting for temperature, the March trough was still statistically significant and there was a peak in risk (not statistically significant) in winter. There was an acute effect of temperature on gestational age and stillbirth with a shortened gestation for increasing temperature from 15 °C to 25 °C over the last four weeks before birth. For stillbirth, we found an increasing risk with increasing temperatures from 12 °C to approximately 20 °C, and no change in risk at temperatures above 20 °C. Certain periods of the pregnancy were more vulnerable to temperature variation. The risk of PTB (28–36 weeks of gestation) increased as temperatures increased above 21 °C. For stillbirth, the fetus was most vulnerable at less than 28 weeks of gestation, but there were also effects in 28–36 weeks of gestation. For fetuses of more than 37 weeks of gestation, increasing temperatures did not increase the risk of stillbirth. We did not find any adverse affects of cold temperature on birth outcomes in this cohort. My findings contribute to knowledge of the relationship between temperature and birth outcomes. In the context of climate change, this is particularly important. The results may have implications for public health policy and planning, as they indicate that pregnant women would decrease their risk of adverse birth outcomes by avoiding exposure to high temperatures and seeking cool environments during hot days.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

A mixed-method study to investigate the relationship between the number of social support people present during labour, women’s perceptions and birth outcomes

The birth of a baby is a significant event for women and their families, with the event being influenced by the prevailing social and cultural context. Historically, women throughout the world have given birth at home assisted by other women who helped them cope with the stress of labour and birth. In the middle of the twentieth century, the togetherness, caring and support that were provided within the social and cultural context of childbirth began to change; women in most developed countries, and to some extent in developing countries, laboured and gave birth in institutions that isolated them from the support of family and friends. This practice is referred to as the medical model of childbirth and, over time, birthing within this model has come to be viewed by women as a dehumanising experience. In an attempt to secure a more supportive experience, women began to demand the presence of a supportive companion; namely their partner. This event became the catalyst for a number of studies focusing on different types of support providers and their contribution to the phenomenon of social support during labour. More recently, it has become a common practice for some women to be supported during labour by a number of people from their social network. However, research on the influence of such supportive people on women’s experience of labour and birth and on birth outcomes is scarce. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of various support arrangements from a woman’s family and social network on her experience of labour and birth and on birth outcomes. The mixed-method study was conducted to answer three research questions: 1. Do women with more than one support person present during labour and birth have similar perceptions and experiences of support compared to women with one support person? 2. Do women with more than one support person present during labour and birth have similar birth outcomes compared to women with one support person? 3. Do women with different types of support providers during labour and birth have similar birth outcomes? Methods Phase one of this study developed, pilot tested and administered a newly developed instrument designed to measure women’s perceptions of supportive behaviours provided during labour. Specific birth outcome data were extracted from the medical records. Phase two consisted of in-depth interviews with a sample of women who had completed the survey. Results: The results identified a statistically significant relationship between women’s perceptions of social support and the number of support providers: women supported by one person only rated the supportive behaviours of that person more highly compared to women who were supported by a number of people. The results also identified that women supported by one person used less analgesia. An additional qualitative finding was that some women sacrificed the support of female relatives at the request of their partners. Conclusion: By using a mixed-method approach, this study found that women were selective in their choice of support providers, as they chose individuals with whom they had an enduring affectionate attachment. Women place more emphasis on a support person’s ability to fulfil their attachment needs of close proximity and a sense of security and safety, rather than their ability to provide the expected functional supportive behaviours.

Birth outcomes after spontaneous or assisted conception among infertile Australian women aged 28 to 36 years: A prospective, population-based study

Objective To examine the extent to which the odds of birth, pregnancy, or adverse birth outcomes are higher among women aged 28 to 36 years who use fertility treatment compared with untreated women. Design Prospective, population-based. Setting Not applicable. Patient(s) Participants in the ALSWH born in 1973 to 1978 who reported on their infertility and use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) or ovulation induction (OI). Intervention(s) Postal survey questionnaires administered as part of ALSWH. Main Outcome Measure(s) Among women treated with IVF or OI and untreated women, the odds of birth outcomes estimated by use of adjusted logistic regression modeling. Result(s) Among 7,280 women, 18.6% (n = 1,376) reported infertility. Half (53.0%) of the treated women gave birth compared with 43.8% of untreated women. Women with prior parity were less likely to use IVF compared with nulliparous women. Women using IVF or OI, respectively, were more likely to have given birth after treatment or be pregnant compared with untreated women. Women using IVF or OI were as likely to have ectopic pregnancies, stillbirths, or premature or low birthweight babies as untreated women. Conclusion(s) More than 40% of women aged 28–36 years reporting a history of infertility can achieve births without using treatment, indicating they are subfertile rather than infertile.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.

Pregnancy loss and psychiatric disorders in young women : an Australian birth cohort study

Background Recent evidence has linked induced abortion with later adverse psychiatric outcomes in young women. Aims To examine whether abortion or miscarriage are associated with subsequent psychiatric and substance use disorders. Method A sample (n=1223) of women from a cohort born between 1981 and 1984 in Australia were assessed at 21 years for psychiatric and substance use disorders and lifetime pregnancy histories. Results Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis): abortion odds ratio (OR)=3.6 (95% CI 2.0–6.7) and miscarriage OR=2.6 (95% CI 1.2–5.4). Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.3–3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). Conclusions These findings add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that pregnancy loss per se, whether abortion or miscarriage, increases the risk of a range of substance use disorders and affective disorders in young women.