New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

The Galerkin finite element approximation of the fractional cable equation

The cable equation is one of the most fundamental equations for modeling neuronal dynamics. Cable equations with a fractional order temporal derivative have been introduced to model electrotonic properties of spiny neuronal dendrites. In this paper, the fractional cable equation involving two integro-differential operators is considered. The Galerkin finite element approximations of the fractional cable equation are proposed. The main contribution of this work is outlined as follow: • A semi-discrete finite difference approximation in time is proposed. We prove that the scheme is unconditionally stable, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O(Δt). • A semi-discrete difference scheme for improving the order of convergence for solving the fractional cable equation is proposed, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O((Δt)2). • Based on the above semi-discrete difference approximations, Galerkin finite element approximations in space for a full discretization are also investigated. • Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

A second-order accurate numerical approximation for the Riesz space fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper, we consider a space Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation. The equation is obtained from the standard advection-diffusion equation by replacing the ¯rst-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of order β 1 Є (0; 1) and β2 Є(1; 2], respectively. Riesz fractional advection and dispersion terms are approximated by using two fractional centered difference schemes, respectively. A new weighted Riesz fractional ¯nite difference approximation scheme is proposed. When the weighting factor Ѳ = 1/2, a second- order accurate numerical approximation scheme for the Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation is obtained. Stability, consistency and convergence of the numerical approximation scheme are discussed. A numerical example is given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

A novel numerical approximation for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper, we consider a space fractional advection–dispersion equation. The equation is obtained from the standard advection–diffusion equation by replacing the first- and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of order β1 ∈ (0, 1) and β2 ∈ (1, 2], respectively. The fractional advection and dispersion terms are approximated by using two fractional centred difference schemes. A new weighted Riesz fractional finite-difference approximation scheme is proposed. When the weighting factor θ equals 12, a second-order accuracy scheme is obtained. The stability, consistency and convergence of the numerical approximation scheme are discussed. A numerical example is given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

Numerical approximation for a variable-order nonlinear reaction–subdiffusion equation

Fractional reaction–subdiffusion equations are widely used in recent years to simulate physical phenomena. In this paper, we consider a variable-order nonlinear reaction–subdiffusion equation. A numerical approximation method is proposed to solve the equation. Its convergence and stability are analyzed by Fourier analysis. By means of the technique for improving temporal accuracy, we also propose an improved numerical approximation. Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated by numerical examples.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

Diffusivity of adatoms on plasma-exposed surfaces determined from the ionization energy approximation and ionic polarizability

Microscopic surface diffusivity theory based on atomic ionization energy concept is developed to explain the variations of the atomic and displacement polarizations with respect to the surface diffusion activation energy of adatoms in the process of self-assembly of quantum dots on plasma-exposed surfaces. These polarizations are derived classically, while the atomic polarization is quantized to obtain the microscopic atomic polarizability. The surface diffusivity equation is derived as a function of the ionization energy. The results of this work can be used to fine-tune the delivery rates of different adatoms onto nanostructure growth surfaces and optimize the low-temperature plasma based nanoscale synthesis processes.