Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

A crystallographic snapshot of tyrosine trans-phosphorylation in action

Tyrosine trans-phosphorylation is a key event in receptor tyrosine kinase signaling, yet, the structural basis for this process has eluded definition. Here, we present the crystal structure of the FGF receptor 2 kinases caught in the act of trans-phosphorylation of Y769, the major C-terminal phosphorylation site. The structure reveals that enzyme- and substrate-acting kinases engage each other through elaborate and specific interactions not only in the immediate vicinity of Y769 and the enzyme active site, but also in regions that are as much of 18 A away from D626, the catalytic base in the enzyme active site. These interactions lead to an unprecedented level of specificity and precision during the trans-phosphorylation on Y769. Time-resolved mass spectrometry analysis supports the observed mechanism of trans-phosphorylation. Our data provide a molecular framework for understanding the mechanism of action of Kallmann syndrome mutations and the order of trans-phosphorylation reactions in FGFRs. We propose that the salient mechanistic features of Y769 trans-phosphorylation are applicable to trans-phosphorylation of the equivalent major phosphorylation sites in many other RTKs.

Gimmelife : listening for dialogic voices in the email self-narratives of gifted young adolescents

The art of listening for voices within narrative research is a positive endeavour that has specific value within research design and subsequent approaches to analysis. This paper details an investigation into the dialogic nature of voices among gifted young adolescents who engaged in the co-construction of email-generated self-narratives. Data are drawn from a study involving ten adolescents, aged between ten and fourteen years, diagnosed as gifted according to Australian guidelines. Individual participants were asked to produce self-managed journal entries written and sent as asynchronous emails to the researcher who was the sole recipient and respondent. Within this approach, specific techniques of listening were used to examine a series of multi-vocal narratives generated over a period of six months. This paper proposes that an adaptation of the everyday convenience of email with the traditional journal format as a self-report mechanism creates a synergy that fosters self-disclosure. Individual excerpts are presented to show that the harnessing of personal narratives within an email context has potential to yield valuable insights into the emotions, personal realities and experiences of gifted young adolescents. Furthermore, the co-construction of self-expressive and explanatory narratives supported by a facilitative adult listener appeared to promote healthy self-awareness amongst participants. This paper contributes to narrative exploration in two distinct ways: first, in using online methods for gaining access to the everyday, emotional realities of participants; and, second, in demonstrating the value of listening as a narrative technique for uncovering layers of voices across a body of texts produced over time. These methods represent an innovative attempt to move beyond face-to-face approaches and away from a focus on content and coding techniques that might oversimplify complex emotions.

Airborne particle concentrations at schools measured at different spatial scales

Potential adverse effects on children health may result from school exposure to airborne particles. To address this issue, measurements in terms of particle number concentration, particle size distribution and black carbon (BC) concentrations were performed in three school buildings in Cassino (Italy) and its suburbs, outside and inside of the classrooms during normal occupancy and use. Additional time resolved information was gathered on ventilation condition, classroom activity, and traffic count data around the schools were obtained using a video camera. Across the three investigated school buildings, the outdoor and indoor particle number concentration monitored down to 4 nm and up to 3 m ranged from 2.8×104 part cm-3 to 4.7×104 part cm-3 and from 2.0×104 part cm-3 to 3.5×104 part cm-3, respectively. The total particle concentrations were usually higher outdoors than indoors, because no indoor sources were detected. I/O measured was less than 1 (varying in a relatively narrow range from 0.63 to 0.74), however one school exhibited indoor concentrations higher than outdoor during the morning rush hours. Particle size distribution at the outdoor site showed high particle concentrations in different size ranges, varying during the day; in relation to the starting and finishing of school time two modes were found. BC concentrations were 5 times higher at the urban school compared with the suburban and suburban-to-urban differences were larger than the relative differences of ultrafine particle concentrations.

Performance assessment of exponential Rosenbrock method for large systems of ODE

This paper studies time integration methods for large stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of the form u'(t) = g(u(t)). For such problems, implicit methods generally outperform explicit methods, since the time step is usually less restricted by stability constraints. Recently, however, explicit so-called exponential integrators have become popular for stiff problems due to their favourable stability properties. These methods use matrix-vector products involving exponential-like functions of the Jacobian matrix, which can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with the Jacobian. In this paper, we implement exponential integrators of second, third and fourth order and demonstrate that they are competitive with well-established approaches based on the backward differentiation formulas and a preconditioned Newton-Krylov solution strategy.

Deep Raman Spectroscopy in the analytical forensic investigation of concealed substances

Deep Raman Spectroscopy is a domain within Raman spectroscopy consisting of techniques that facilitate the depth profiling of diffusely scattering media. Such variants include Time-Resolved Raman Spectroscopy (TRRS) and Spatially-Offset Raman Spectroscopy (SORS). A recent study has also demonstrated the integration of TRRS and SORS in the development of Time-Resolved Spatially-Offset Raman Spectroscopy (TR-SORS). This research demonstrates the application of specific deep Raman spectroscopic techniques to concealed samples commonly encountered in forensic and homeland security at various working distances. Additionally, the concepts behind these techniques are discussed at depth and prospective improvements to the individual techniques are investigated. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of samples based on spectral data acquired from SORS is performed with the aid of multivariate statistical techniques. By the end of this study, an objective comparison is made among the techniques within Deep Raman Spectroscopy based on their capabilities. The efficiency and quality of these techniques are determined based on the results procured which facilitates the understanding of the degree of selectivity for the deeper layer exhibited by the individual techniques relative to each other. TR-SORS was shown to exhibit an enhanced selectivity for the deeper layer relative to TRRS and SORS whilst providing spectral results with good signal-to-noise ratio. Conclusive results indicate that TR-SORS is a prospective deep Raman technique that offers higher selectivity towards deep layers and therefore enhances the non-invasive analysis of concealed substances from close range as well as standoff distances.

Nanostructured metal hydrides for hydrogen storage studied by in situ synchrotron and neutron diffraction

This work was focused on studies of the metal hydride materials having a potential in building hydrogen storage systems with high gravimetric and volumetric efficiencies of H storage and formed / decomposed with high rates of hydrogen exchange. In situ diffraction studies of the metal-hydrogen systems were explored as a valuable tool in probing both the mechanism of the phase-structural transformations and their kinetics. Two complementary techniques, namely Neutron Powder Diffraction (NPD) and Synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SR XRD) were utilised. High pressure in situ NPD studies were performed at D2 pressures reaching 1000 bar at the D1B diffractometer accommodated at Institute Laue Langevin, Grenoble. The data of the time resolved in situ SR XRD were collected at the Swiss Norwegian Beam Lines, ESRF, Grenoble in the pressure range up to 50 bar H2 at temperatures 20-400°C. The systems studied by NPD at high pressures included deuterated Al-modified Laves-type C15 ZrFe2-xAlx intermetallics with x = 0.02; 0.04 and 0.20 and the CeNi5-D2 system. D content, hysteresis of H uptake and release, unit cell expansion and stability of the hydrides systematically change with Al content. Deuteration exhibited a very fast kinetics; it resulted in increase of the unit cells volumes reaching 23.5 % for ZrFe1.98Al0.02D2.9(1) and associated with exclusive occupancy of the Zr2(Fe,Al)2 tetrahedra. For CeNi5 deuteration yielded a hexahydride CeNi5D6.2 (20°C, 776 bar D2) and was accompanied by a nearly isotropic volume expansion reaching 30.1% (∆a/a=10.0%; ∆c/c=7.5%). Deuterium atoms fill three different interstitial sites including Ce2Ni2, Ce2Ni3 and Ni4. Significant hysteresis was observed on the first absorption-desorption cycle. This hysteresis decreased on the absorption-desorption cycling. A different approach to the development of H storage systems is based on the hydrides of light elements, first of all the Mg-based ones. These systems were studied by SR XRD. Reactive ball milling in hydrogen (HRBM) allowed synthesis of the nanostructured Mg-based hydrides. The experimental parameters (PH2, T, energy of milling, ball / sample ratio and balls size), significantly influence rate of hydrogenation. The studies confirmed (a) a completeness of hydrogenation of Mg into MgH2; (b) indicated a partial transformation of the originally formed -MgH2 into a metastable -MgH2 (a ratio / was 3/1); (c) yielded the crystallite size for the main hydrogenation product, -MgH2, as close to 10 nm. Influence of the additives to Mg on the structure and hydrogen absorption/desorption properties and cycle behaviour of the composites was established and will be discussed in the paper.

A brief guide to synchrotron radiation-based microtomography in (structural) geology and rock mechanics

This contribution outlines Synchrotron-based X-ray micro-tomography and its potential use in structural geology and rock mechanics. The paper complements several recent reviews of X-ray microtomography. We summarize the general approach to data acquisition, post-processing as well as analysis and thereby aim to provide an entry point for the interested reader. The paper includes tables listing relevant beamlines, a list of all available imaging techniques, and available free and commercial software packages for data visualization and quantification. We highlight potential applications in a review of relevant literature including time-resolved experiments and digital rock physics. The paper concludes with a report on ongoing developments and upgrades at synchrotron facilities to frame the future possibilities for imaging sub-second processes in centimetre-sized samples.

Why 'down under' is a cut above: a comparison of rates of and reasons for caesarean section in England and Australia

Background Most studies examining determinants of rising rates of caesarean section have examined patterns in documented reasons for caesarean over time in a single location. Further insights could be gleaned from cross-cultural research that examines practice patterns in locations with disparate rates of caesarean section at a single time point. Methods We compared both rates of and main reason for pre-labour and intrapartum caesarean between England and Queensland, Australia, using data from retrospective cross-sectional surveys of women who had recently given birth in England (n = 5,250) and Queensland (n = 3,467). Results Women in Queensland were more likely to have had a caesarean birth (36.2%) than women in England (25.1% of births; OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.28-1.61), after adjustment for obstetric characteristics. Between-country differences were found for rates of pre-labour caesarean (21.2% vs. 12.2%) but not for intrapartum caesarean or assisted vaginal birth. Compared to women in England, women in Queensland with a history of caesarean were more likely to have had a pre-labour caesarean and more likely to have had an intrapartum caesarean, due only to a previous caesarean. Among women with no previous caesarean, Queensland women were more likely than women in England to have had a caesarean due to suspected disproportion and failure to progress in labour. Conclusions The higher rates of caesarean birth in Queensland are largely attributable to higher rates of caesarean for women with a previous caesarean, and for the main reason of having had a previous caesarean. Variation between countries may be accounted for by the absence of a single, comprehensive clinical guideline for caesarean section in Queensland. Keywords: Caesarean section; Childbirth; Pregnancy; Cross-cultural comparison; Vaginal birth after caesarean; Previous caesarean section; Patient-reported data; Quality improvement

Guided ionization waves : theory and experiments

This review focuses on one of the fundamental phenomena that occur upon application of sufficiently strong electric fields to gases, namely the formation and propagation of ionization waves-streamers. The dynamics of streamers is controlled by strongly nonlinear coupling, in localized streamer tip regions, between enhanced (due to charge separation) electric field and ionization and transport of charged species in the enhanced field. Streamers appear in nature (as initial stages of sparks and lightning, as huge structures-sprites above thunderclouds), and are also found in numerous technological applications of electrical discharges. Here we discuss the fundamental physics of the guided streamer-like structures-plasma bullets which are produced in cold atmospheric-pressure plasma jets. Plasma bullets are guided ionization waves moving in a thin column of a jet of plasma forming gases (e.g.,He or Ar) expanding into ambient air. In contrast to streamers in a free (unbounded) space that propagate in a stochastic manner and often branch, guided ionization waves are repetitive and highly-reproducible and propagate along the same path-the jet axis. This property of guided streamers, in comparison with streamers in a free space, enables many advanced time-resolved experimental studies of ionization waves with nanosecond precision. In particular, experimental studies on manipulation of streamers by external electric fields and streamer interactions are critically examined. This review also introduces the basic theories and recent advances on the experimental and computational studies of guided streamers, in particular related to the propagation dynamics of ionization waves and the various parameters of relevance to plasma streamers. This knowledge is very useful to optimize the efficacy of applications of plasma streamer discharges in various fields ranging from health care and medicine to materials science and nanotechnology.

Solitary filamentary structures and nanosecond dynamics in atmospheric-pressure plasmas driven by tailored dc pulses

Nanosecond dynamics of two separated discharge cycles in an asymmetric dielectric barrier discharge is studied using time-resolved current and voltage measurements synchronized with high-speed (∼5 ns) optical imaging. Nanosecond dc pulses with tailored raise and fall times are used to generate solitary filamentary structures (SFSs) during the first cycle and a uniform glow during the second. The SFSs feature ∼1.5 mm thickness, ∼1.9 A peak current, and a lifetime of several hundred nanoseconds, at least an order of magnitude larger than in common microdischarges. This can be used in alternating localized and uniform high-current plasma treatments in various applications.

Turning points, power transfer, and frequency response of mode transitions in RF plasmas

Turning points for transitions between the electrostatic and electromagnetic discharge modes in low-frequency (∼ 500 kHz) inductively coupled plasmas have been identified and cross-referenced using time-resolved measurements of the plasma optical emission intensities, RF coil current, and ion saturation current collected by a single RF-compensated Langmuir probe. This enables one to monitor the variation of the plasma parameters, power transfer efficiency, which accompany the discharge hysteresis. The excitation conditions for the pure and hybrid modes in the plasma are considered, and the possibility of the TMmnl → TEm'n'l' transitions at higher frequencies are discussed.

Photophysical characterization of light-emitting poly(indenofluorene)s

Time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy experiments of three poly(2,8-indenofluorene) derivatives bearing different pendant groups are presented. A comparison of the photophysical properties of dilute solutions and thin films provides information on the chemical purity of the materials. The photophysical properties of poly(2,8-indenofluorene)s are correlated with the morphological characteristics of their corresponding films. Wide-angle X-ray scattering experiments reveal the order in these materials at the molecular level. The spectroscopic results confirm the positive impact of a new synthetic approach on the spectral purity of the poly(indenofluorene)s. It is concluded that complete side-chain substitution of the bridgehead carbon atoms C-6 and C-12 in the indenofluorene unit, prior to indenofluorene ring formation, reduces the probability of keto formation. Due to the intrinsic chemical purity of the arylated derivative, identification of a long-delayed spectral feature, other than the known keto band, is possible in the case of thin films. Controlled doping experiments on the arylated derivative with trace amounts of an indenofluorene-monoketone provide quantitative information on the rates of two major photophysical processes, namely, singlet photoluminescence emission and singlet photoluminescence quenching. These results allow the determination of the minimum keto concentration that can affect the intrinsic photophysical properties of this polymer. The data suggest that photoluminescence quenching operates in the doped films according to the Stern-Volmer formalism.

Excited-state dynamics in diketopyrrolopyrrole-based copolymer for organic photovoltaics investigated by transient optical spectroscopy

We investigate the photoexcited state dynamics in a donor-acceptor copolymer, poly{3,6-dithiophene-2-yl-2,5-di(2-octyldodecyl)-pyrrolo[3,4-c]- pyrrole-1,4-dione-alt-naphthalene} (pDPP-TNT), by picosecond fluorescence and femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopies. Timeresolved fluorescence lifetime measurements of pDPP-TNT thin films reveal that the lifetime of the singlet excited state is 185 ± 5 ps and that singlet-singlet annihilation occurs at excitation photon densities above 6 × 1017 photons/cm3. From the results of singlet-singlet annihilation analysis, we estimate that the single-singlet annihilation rate constant is (6.0 ± 0.2) × 109cm3 s-1 and the singlet diffusion length is -7 nm. From the comparison of femtosecond transient absorption measurements and picosecond fluorescence measurements, it is found that the time profile of the photobleaching signal in the charge-transfer (CT) absorption band coincides with that of the fluorescence intensity and there is no indication of long-lived species, which clearly suggests that charged species, such as polaron pairs and triplet excitons, are not effectively photogenerated in the neat pDPP-TNT polymer.