Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

Structure of the magnetized sheath of a dusty plasma

A three-component fluid model for a dusty plasma-sheath in an oblique magnetic field is presented. The study is carried out for the conditions when the thermophoretic force associated with the electron temperature gradient is one of the most important forces affecting dust grains in the sheath. It is shown that the sheath properties (the sheath size, the electron, ion and dust particle densities and velocities, the electric field potential, and the forces affecting the dust particles) are functions of the neutral gas pressure and ion temperature, the dust size, the dust material density, and the electron temperature gradient. Effects of plasma-dust collisions on the sheath structure are studied. It is shown that an increase in the forces pushing dust particles to the wall is accompanied by a decrease in the sheath width. The results of this work are particularly relevant to low-temperature plasma-enabled technologies, where effective control of nano- and microsized particles near solid or liquid surfaces is required.

Selecting rainfall events for effective Water Sensitive Urban Design: A case study in Gold Coast City, Australia

The current approach for protecting the receiving water environment from urban stormwater pollution is the adoption of structural measures commonly referred to as Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD). The treatment efficiency of WSUD measures closely depends on the design of the specific treatment units. As stormwater quality is influenced by rainfall characteristics, the selection of appropriate rainfall events for treatment design is essential to ensure the effectiveness of WSUD systems. Based on extensive field investigations in four urban residential catchments based at Gold Coast, Australia, and computer modelling, this paper details a technically robust approach for the selection of rainfall events for stormwater treatment design using a three-component model. The modelling results confirmed that high intensity-short duration events produce 58.0% of TS load while they only generated 29.1% of total runoff volume. Additionally, rainfall events smaller than 6-month average recurrence interval (ARI) generates a greater cumulative runoff volume (68.4% of the total annual runoff volume) and TS load (68.6% of the TS load exported) than the rainfall events larger than 6-month ARI. The results suggest that for the study catchments, stormwater treatment design could be based on the rainfall which had a mean value of 31 mm/h average intensity and 0.4 h duration. These outcomes also confirmed that selecting smaller ARI rainfall events with high intensity-short duration as the threshold for treatment system design is the most feasible approach since these events cumulatively generate a major portion of the annual pollutant load compared to the other types of events, despite producing a relatively smaller runoff volume. This implies that designs based on small and more frequent rainfall events rather than larger rainfall events would be appropriate in the context of efficiency in treatment performance, cost-effectiveness and possible savings in land area needed.

Cultural beliefs about societal change: A three-mode principal component analysis in China, Australia, and Japan

People’s beliefs about where society has come from and where it is going have personal and political consequences. Here, we conduct a detailed investigation of these beliefs through re-analyzing Kashima et al.’s (Study 2, n = 320) data from China, Australia, and Japan. Kashima et al. identified a “folk theory of social change” (FTSC) belief that people in society become more competent over time, but less warm and moral. Using three-mode principal components analysis, an under-utilized analytical method in psychology, we identified two additional narratives: Utopianism/Dystopianism (people becoming generally better or worse over time) and Expansion/Contraction (an increase/decrease in both positive and negative aspects of character over time). Countries differed in endorsement of these three narratives of societal change. Chinese endorsed the FTSC and Utopian narratives more than other countries, Japanese held Dystopian and Contraction beliefs more than other countries, and Australians’ narratives of societal change fell between Chinese and Japanese. Those who believed in greater economic/technological development held stronger FTSC and Expansion/Contraction narratives, but not Utopianism/Dystopianism. By identifying multiple cultural narratives about societal change, this research provides insights into how people across cultures perceive their social world and their visions of the future.

Alternative schooling programs for at risk youth : three case studies

This thesis develops a critical realist explanatory critique of alternative schooling programs for youth at risk taking place at three case study sites. Throughout the thesis the author pursues the question, \Are alternative provisions of schooling working academically and socially for youth at risk?. The academic lens targets literacy learning and associated pedagogies. Social outcomes are posited as positive social behaviours and continued engagement in learning. A four phased analysis, drawing on critical realism, interpretive and subject specific theories is used to elicit explanations for the research question. An overall framework is a critical realist methodology as set out by Danermark, Ekstrom, Jakobsen and Karlsson (2002, p. 129). Consequently phase one describes the phenomena of alternative schooling programs taking place at three case study sites. This is reported first as staff narratives that are resolved into imaginable historical causal components of \generative events., \prior schooling structures., \models of alternative schooling., \purpose., \individual agency., and \relations with linked community organisations.. Then transcendental questions are posed about each component using retroduction to uncover structures, underlying mechanisms and powers, and individual agency. In the second phase the researcher uses modified grounded theory methodology to theoretically redescribe causal categories related to a \needed different teaching and administrative approach. that emerged from the previous critique. A transcendental question is then applied to this redescription. The research phenomena are again theoretically redescribed in the third phase, this time using three theoretically based constructs associated with literacy and literacy pedagogies; the NRS, the 4 Resources Model, and Productive Pedagogies. This redescription is again questioned in terms of its core or \necessary. components. The fourth phase makes an explanatory critique by comparing and critiquing all previous explanations, recontextualising them in a wider macro reality of alternative schooling. Through this critical realist explanatory critiquing process, a response emerges not only to whether alternative provisions of schooling are working, but also how they are working, and how they are not working, with realistically based implications for future improvement.

Simultaneous determination of three synthetic glucocorticoids by differential pulse stripping voltammetry with the aid of chemometrics

A novel voltammetric method for simultaneous determination of the glucocorticoid residues prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone was developed. All three compounds were reduced at a mercury electrode in a Britton-Robinson buffer (pH 3.78), and well-defined voltammetric waves were observed. However, the voltammograms of these three compounds overlapped seriously and showed nonlinear character, and thus, it was difficult to analyze the compounds individually in their mixtures. In this work, two chemometrics methods, principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS), were applied to resolve the overlapped voltammograms, and the calibration models were established for simultaneous determination of these compounds. Under the optimum experimental conditions, the limits of detection (LOD) were 5.6, 8.3, and 16.8 µg l-1 for prednisone, prednisolone, and dexamethasone, respectively. The proposed method was also applied for the determination of these glucocorticoid residues in the rabbit plasma and human urine samples with satisfactory results.

A differential kinetic spectrophotometric method for determination of three sulphanilamide artificial sweeteners with the aid of chemometrics

A simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium sweeteners in foodstuff samples has been researched and developed. This analytical method relies on the different kinetic rates of the analytes in their oxidative reaction with KMnO4 to produce the green manganate product in an alkaline solution. As the kinetic rates of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium were similar and their kinetic data seriously overlapped, chemometrics methods, such as partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR) and classical least squares (CLS), were applied to resolve the kinetic data. The results showed that the PLS prediction model performed somewhat better. The proposed method was then applied for the determination of the three sweeteners in foodstuff samples, and the results compared well with those obtained by the reference HPLC method.

Analysis of alternative water sources for use in the manufacture of concrete

In Australia and many other countries worldwide, water used in the manufacture of concrete must be potable. At present, it is currently thought that concrete properties are highly influenced by the water type used and its proportion in the concrete mix, but actually there is little knowledge of the effects of different, alternative water sources used in concrete mix design. Therefore, the identification of the level and nature of contamination in available water sources and their subsequent influence on concrete properties is becoming increasingly important. Of most interest, is the recycled washout water currently used by batch plants as mixing water for concrete. Recycled washout water is the water used onsite for a variety of purposes, including washing of truck agitator bowls, wetting down of aggregate and run off. This report presents current information on the quality of concrete mixing water in terms of mandatory limits and guidelines on impurities as well as investigating the impact of recycled washout water on concrete performance. It also explores new sources of recycled water in terms of their quality and suitability for use in concrete production. The complete recycling of washout water has been considered for use in concrete mixing plants because of the great benefit in terms of reducing the cost of waste disposal cost and environmental conservation. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of using washout water on the properties of fresh and hardened concrete. This was carried out by utilizing a 10 week sampling program from three representative sites across South East Queensland. The sample sites chosen represented a cross-section of plant recycling methods, from most effective to least effective. The washout water samples collected from each site were then analysed in accordance with Standards Association of Australia AS/NZS 5667.1 :1998. These tests revealed that, compared with tap water, the washout water was higher in alkalinity, pH, and total dissolved solids content. However, washout water with a total dissolved solids content of less than 6% could be used in the production of concrete with acceptable strength and durability. These results were then interpreted using chemometric techniques of Principal Component Analysis, SIMCA and the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods PROMETHEE and GAIA were used to rank the samples from cleanest to unclean. It was found that even the simplest purifying processes provided water suitable for the manufacture of concrete form wash out water. These results were compared to a series of alternative water sources. The water sources included treated effluent, sea water and dam water and were subject to the same testing parameters as the reference set. Analysis of these results also found that despite having higher levels of both organic and inorganic properties, the waters complied with the parameter thresholds given in the American Standard Test Method (ASTM) C913-08. All of the alternative sources were found to be suitable sources of water for the manufacture of plain concrete.

The concentric all-polyethylene Exeter acetabular component in primary total hip replacement

We report the long term outcome of the flangeless, cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup at a mean of 14.6 years (range 10-17) after operation. Of the 263 hips in 243 patients, 122 hips are still in situ, 112 patients (119 hips) have died, eighteen hips were revised, and three patients (four hips) had moved abroad and were lost to follow-up (1.5%). Radiographs demonstrated two sockets had migrated and six more had radiolucent lines in all three zones. The Kaplan Meier survivorship at 15 years with endpoint revision for all causes is 89.9% (95% CI 84.6 to 95.2%) and for aseptic cup loosening or lysis 91.7% (CI 86.6 to 96.8%). In 210 hips with a diagnosis of primary osteoarthritis survivorship for all causes is 93.2% (95% CI 88.1 to 98.3%), and for aseptic cup loosening 95.0% (CI 90.3 to 99.7%). The cemented all polyethylene Exeter cup has an excellent long-term survivorship.

Validation and automation of the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo code

The purpose of this work is to validate and automate the use of DYNJAWS; a new component module (CM) in the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo (MC) user code. The DYNJAWS CM simulates dynamic wedges and can be used in three modes; dynamic, step-and-shoot and static. The step-and-shoot and dynamic modes require an additional input file defining the positions of the jaw that constitutes the dynamic wedge, at regular intervals during its motion. A method for automating the generation of the input file is presented which will allow for the more efficient use of the DYNJAWS CM. Wedged profiles have been measured and simulated for 6 and 10 MV photons at three field sizes (5 cm x 5 cm , 10 cm x10 cm and 20 cm x 20 cm), four wedge angles (15, 30, 45 and 60 degrees), at dmax and at 10 cm depth. Results of this study show agreement between the measured and the MC profiles to within 3% of absolute dose or 3 mm distance to agreement for all wedge angles at both energies and depths. The gamma analysis suggests that dynamic mode is more accurate than the step-and-shoot mode. The DYNJAWS CM is an important addition to the BEAMnrc code and will enable the MC verification of patient treatments involving dynamic wedges.

Controls on iron in soils and soil waters of a forested, coastal catchment in subtropical Australia

Soluble organic matter derived from exotic Pinus vegetation forms stronger complexes with iron (Fe) than the soluble organic matter derived from most native Australian species. This has lead to concern about the environmental impacts related to the establishment of extensive exotic Pinus plantations in coastal southeast Queensland, Australia. It has been suggested that the Pinus plantations may enhance the solubility of Fe in soils by increasing the amount of organically complexed Fe. While this remains inconclusive, the environmental impacts of an increased flux of dissolved, organically complexed Fe from soils to the fluvial system and then to sensitive coastal ecosystems are potentially damaging. Previous work investigated a small number of samples, was largely laboratory based and had limited application to field conditions. These assessments lacked field-based studies, including the comparison of the soil water chemistry of sites associated with Pinus vegetation and undisturbed native vegetation. In addition, the main controls on the distribution and mobilisation of Fe in soils of this subtropical coastal region have not been determined. This information is required in order to better understand the relative significance of any Pinus enhanced solubility of Fe. The main aim of this thesis is to determine the controls on Fe distribution and mobilisation in soils and soil waters of a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland (Poona Creek catchment, Fraser Coast) and to test the effect of Pinus vegetation on the solubility and speciation of Fe. The thesis is structured around three individual papers. The first paper identifies the main processes responsible for the distribution and mobilisation of labile Fe in the study area and takes a catchment scale approach. Physicochemical attributes of 120 soil samples distributed throughout the catchment are analysed, and a new multivariate data analysis approach (Kohonen’s self organising maps) is used to identify the conditions associated with high labile Fe. The second paper establishes whether Fe nodules play a major role as an iron source in the catchment, by determining the genetic mechanism responsible for their formation. The nodules are a major pool of Fe in much of the region and previous studies have implied that they may be involved in redox-controlled mobilisation and redistribution of Fe. This is achieved by combining a detailed study of a ferric soil profile (morphology, mineralogy and micromorphology) with the distribution of Fe nodules on a catchment scale. The third component of the thesis tests whether the concentration and speciation of Fe in soil solutions from Pinus plantations differs significantly from native vegetation soil solutions. Microlysimeters are employed to collect unaltered, in situ soil water samples. The redox speciation of Fe is determined spectrophotometrically and the interaction between Fe and dissolved organic matter (DOM) is modelled with the Stockholm Humic Model. The thesis provides a better understanding of the controls on the distribution, concentration and speciation of Fe in the soils and soil waters of southeast Queensland. Reductive dissolution is the main mechanism by which mobilisation of Fe occurs in the study area. Labile Fe concentrations are low overall, particularly in the sandy soils of the coastal plain. However, high labile Fe is common in seasonally waterlogged and clay-rich soils which are exposed to fluctuating redox conditions and in organic-rich soils adjacent to streams. Clay-rich soils are most common in the upper parts of the catchment. Fe nodules were shown to have a negligible role in the redistribution of dissolved iron in the catchment. They are formed by the erosion, colluvial transport and chemical weathering of iron-rich sandstones. The ferric horizons, in which nodules are commonly concentrated, subsequently form through differential biological mixing of the soil. Whereas dissolution/ reprecipitation of the Fe cements is an important component of nodule formation, mobilised Fe reprecipitates locally. Dissolved Fe in the soil waters is almost entirely in the ferrous form. Vegetation type does not affect the concentration and speciation of Fe in soil waters, although Pinus DOM has greater acidic functional group site densities than DOM from native vegetation. Iron concentrations are highest in the high DOM soil waters collected from sandy podosols, where they are controlled by redox potential. Iron concentrations are low in soil solutions from clay and iron oxide rich soils, in spite of similar redox potentials. This is related to stronger sorption to the reactive clay and iron oxide mineral surfaces in these soils, which reduces the amount of DOM available for microbial metabolisation and reductive dissolution of Fe. Modelling suggests that Pinus DOM can significantly increase the amount of truly dissolved ferric iron remaining in solution in oxidising conditions. Thus, inputs of ferrous iron together with Pinus DOM to surface waters may reduce precipitation of hydrous ferric oxides and increase the flux of dissolved iron out of the catchment. Such inputs are most likely from the lower catchment, where podosols planted with Pinus are most widely distributed. Significant outcomes other than the main aims were also achieved. It is shown that mobilisation of Fe in podosols can occur as dissolved Fe(II) rather than as Fe(III)-organic complexes. This has implications for the large body of work which assumes that Fe(II) plays a minor role. Also, the first paper demonstrates that a data analysis approach based on Kohonen’s self organising maps can facilitate the interpretation of complex datasets and can help identify geochemical processes operating on a catchment scale.

Simultaneous voltammetric determination of three herbicides in food and water samples with the aid of chemometrics

Differential pulse stripping voltammetry method(DPSV) was applied to the determination of three herbicides, ametryn, cyanatryn, and dimethametryn. It was found that their voltammograms overlapped strongly, and it is difficult to determine these compounds individually from their mixtures. With the aid of chemometrics, classical least squares(CLS), principal component regression(PCR) and partial least squares(PLS), voltammogram resolution and quantitative analysis of the synthetic mixtures of the three compounds were successfully performed. The proposed method was also applied to the analysis of some real samples with satisfactory results.

Acoustic component detection for automatic species recognition in environmental monitoring

Automatic species recognition plays an important role in assisting ecologists to monitor the environment. One critical issue in this research area is that software developers need prior knowledge of specific targets people are interested in to build templates for these targets. This paper proposes a novel approach for automatic species recognition based on generic knowledge about acoustic events to detect species. Acoustic component detection is the most critical and fundamental part of this proposed approach. This paper gives clear definitions of acoustic components and presents three clustering algorithms for detecting four acoustic components in sound recordings; whistles, clicks, slurs, and blocks. The experiment result demonstrates that these acoustic component recognisers have achieved high precision and recall rate.

Internal and external motivation factors in virtual and collocated project environments : a principal component investigation

In this study, we explore motivation in collocated and virtual project teams. The literature on motivation in a project set.,ting reveals that motivation is closely linked to team performance. Based on this literature, we propose a set., of variables related to the three dimensions of ‘Nature of work’, ‘Rewards’, and ‘Communication’. Thirteen original variables in a sample size of 66 collocated and 66 virtual respondents are investigated using one tail t test and principal component analysis. We find that there are minimal differences between the two groups with respect to the above mentioned three dimensions. (p= .06; t=1.71). Further, a principal component analysis of the combined sample of collocated and virtual project environments reveals two factors- ‘Internal Motivating Factor’ related to work and work environment, and ‘External Motivating Factor’ related to the financial and non-financial rewards that explain 59.8% of the variance and comprehensively characterize motivation in collocated and virtual project environments. A ‘sense check’ of our interpretation of the results shows conformity with the theory and existing practice of project organization

Three-dimensional geological modelling and multivariate statistical analysis of water chemistry data to analyse and visualise aquifer structure and groundwater composition in the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand

Concerns regarding groundwater contamination with nitrate and the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources have prompted the development of a multi-layered three dimensional (3D) geological model to characterise the aquifer geometry of the Wairau Plain, Marlborough District, New Zealand. The 3D geological model which consists of eight litho-stratigraphic units has been subsequently used to synthesise hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data for different aquifers in an approach that aims to demonstrate how integration of water chemistry data within the physical framework of a 3D geological model can help to better understand and conceptualise groundwater systems in complex geological settings. Multivariate statistical techniques(e.g. Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) were applied to groundwater chemistry data to identify hydrochemical facies which are characteristic of distinct evolutionary pathways and a common hydrologic history of groundwaters. Principal Component Analysis on hydrochemical data demonstrated that natural water-rock interactions, redox potential and human agricultural impact are the key controls of groundwater quality in the Wairau Plain. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis revealed distinct hydrochemical water quality groups in the Wairau Plain groundwater system. Visualisation of the results of the multivariate statistical analyses and distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations in the context of aquifer lithology highlighted the link between groundwater chemistry and the lithology of host aquifers. The methodology followed in this study can be applied in a variety of hydrogeological settings to synthesise geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical data and present them in a format readily understood by a wide range of stakeholders. This enables a more efficient communication of the results of scientific studies to the wider community.