The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Low-temperature plasma processing for Si photovoltaics

There has been a recent rapid expansion of the range of applications of low-temperature plasma processing in Si-based photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The desire to produce Si-based PV materials at an acceptable cost with consistent performance and reproducibility has stimulated a large number of major research and research infrastructure programs, and a rapidly increasing number of publications in the field of low-temperature plasma processing for Si photovoltaics. In this article, we introduce the low-temperature plasma sources for Si photovoltaic applications and discuss the effects of low-temperature plasma dissociation and deposition on the synthesis of Si-based thin films. We also examine the relevant growth mechanisms and plasma diagnostics, Si thin-film solar cells, Si heterojunction solar cells and silicon nitride materials for antireflection and surface passivation. Special attention is paid to the low-temperature plasma interactions with Si materials including hydrogen interaction, wafer cleaning, masked or mask-free surface texturization, the direct formation of p-n junction, and removal of phosphorus silicate glass or parasitic emitters. The chemical and physical interactions in such plasmas with Si surfaces are analyzed. Several examples of the plasma processes and techniques are selected to represent a variety of applications aimed at the improvement of Si-based solar cell performance. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Low-temperature plasma-assisted growth of optically transparent, highly oriented nanocrystalline AlN

Optically transparent, highly oriented nanocrystalline AlN(002) films have been synthesized using a hybrid plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition and plasma-assisted radio frequency (rf) magnetron sputtering process in reactive Ar+ N2 and Ar+ N2 + H2 gas mixtures at a low Si(111)/glass substrate temperature of 350 °C. The process conditions, such as the sputtering pressure, rf power, substrate temperature, and N2 concentration were optimized to achieve the desired structural, compositional, and optical characteristics. X-ray diffractometry reveals the formation of highly c -oriented AlN films at a sputtering pressure of 0.8 Pa. Field emission scanning electron microscopy suggests the uniform distribution of AlN grains over large surface areas and also the existence of highly oriented in the (002) direction columnar structures of a typical length ∼100-500 nm with an aspect ratio of ∼7-15. X-ray photoelectron and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy suggest that films deposited at a rf power of 400 W feature a chemically pure and near stoichiometric AlN. The bonding states of the AlN films have been confirmed by Raman and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy showing strong E2 (high) and E1 transverse optical phonon modes. Hydrogenated AlN films feature an excellent optical transmittance of ∼80% in the visible region of the spectrum, promising for advanced optical applications.

Behavior of the electron temperature in nonuniform complex plasmas

The response of complex ionized gas systems to the presence of nonuniform distribution of charged grains is investigated using a kinetic model. Contrary to an existing view that the electron temperature inevitably increases in the grain-occupied region because of enhanced ionization to compensate for the electrons lost to the grains, it is shown that this happens only when the ionizing electric field increases in the electron depleted region. The results for two typical plasma systems suggest that when the ionizing electric field depends on the spatially averaged electron density, the electron temperature in the grain containing region can actually decrease.

Growth kinetics of carbon nanowall-like structures in low-temperature plasmas

The results of a hybrid numerical simulation of the growth kinetics of carbon nanowall-like nanostructures in the plasma and neutral gas synthesis processes are presented. The low-temperature plasma-based process was found to have a significant advantage over the purely neutral flux deposition in providing the uniform size distribution of the nanostructures. It is shown that the nanowall width uniformity is the best (square deviations not exceeding 1.05) in high-density plasmas of 3.0× 1018 m-3, worsens in lower-density plasmas (up to 1.5 in 1.0× 1017 m-3 plasmas), and is the worst (up to 1.9) in the neutral gas-based process. This effect has been attributed to the focusing of ion fluxes by irregular electric field in the vicinity of plasma-grown nanostructures on substrate biased with -20 V potential, and differences in the two-dimensional adatom diffusion fluxes in the plasma and neutral gas-based processes. The results of our numerical simulations are consistent with the available experimental reports on the effect of the plasma process parameters on the sizes and shapes of relevant nanostructures.

Nanoparticle manipulation in plasma-assisted nanofabrication of electron field emitters based on single crystalline carbon nanotip patterns

Nanoparticle manipulation by various plasma forces in near-substrate areas of the Integrated Plasma-Aided Nanofabrication Facility (IPANF) is investigated. In the IPANF, high-density plasmas of low-temperature rf glow discharges are sustained. The model near-substrate area includes a variable-length pre-sheath, where a negatively charged nanoparticle is accelerated, and a self-consistent collisionless sheath with a repulsive electrostatic potential. Conditions enabling the nanoparticle to overcome the repulsive barrier and deposit onto the substrate are investigated numerically and experimentally. Under certain conditions the momentum gained by the nanoparticle in the pre-sheath area appears to be sufficient for the driving ion drag force to outbalance the repulsive electrostatic and thermophoretic forces. Numerical results are applied for the explanation of size-selective nanoparticle deposition in the Ar+H2+CH4 plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition of various carbon nanostructure patterns for electron field emitters and are cross-referenced by the field emission scanning electron microscopy. It is shown that the nanoparticles can be efficiently manipulated by the temperature gradient-controlled thermophoretic force. Experimentally, the temperature gradients in the near-substrate areas are measured in situ by means of the temperature gradient probe and related to the nanofilm fabrication conditions. The results are relevant to plasma-assisted synthesis of numerous nanofilms employing structural incorporation of the plasma-grown nanoparticles, including but not limited to nanofabrication of ordered single-crystalline carbon nanotip arrays for electron field emission applications.

Low-temperature assembly of ordered carbon nanotip arrays in low-frequency, high-density inductively coupled plasmas

High-density inductively coupled plasma (ICP)-assisted self-assembly of the ordered arrays of various carbon nanostructures (NS) for the electron field emission applications is reported. Carbon-based nano-particles, nanotips, and pyramid-like structures, with the controllable shape, ordering, and areal density are grown under remarkably low process temperatures (260-350 °C) and pressures (below 0.1 Torr), on the same Ni-based catalyst layers, in a DC bias-controlled floating temperature regime. A high degree of positional and directional ordering, elevated sp2 content, and a well-structured graphitic morphology are achieved without the use of pre-patterned or externally heated substrates.

Oscillating magnetic field current drive in a spherical plasma device

The continuous steady-state current drive in a spherical argon plasma by transverse oscillating magnetic field (OMF) is investigated. The experimental results reveal that a rotating magnetic field is generated, and its amplitude depends linearly on the external steady vertical magnetic field. It has been shown that steady toroidal currents of up to about 400 A can be driven by a 490 kHz OMF with an input power of 1.4 kW. The generation of steady toroidal magnetic fields directed oppositely in the upper and lower hemispheres have been recorded. The measurements of time-varying magnetic fields unveil a strong nonlinear effect of the frequency-doubled field harmonics generation. The electron number density and temperature of up to 6.2×1018 m-3 and 12 eV have been obtained. The observed effects validate the existing theory of the OMF current drive in spherical plasmas.

Relationship of lightning ground flashes to rainfall and wet bulb temperature

The close relationship between rain and lightning is well known. However, there are numerous documented observations of heavy rain accompanied by little or no lightning activity (Williams et al, 1992; Jayaratne, 1993). Kuleshov et al (2002) studied thunderstorm distribution and frequency in Australia and concluded that thunderstorm frequency (as expressed by number of thunder-days) in Australia does not, in general, appear to vary in any consistent way with rainfall. However, thunder-days describe occurrence of thunderstorms as heard by an observer, and therefore could be only proxy data to evaluate actual lightning activity (i.e. number of total or cloud-to-ground flashes). Field experiments have demonstrated a strong increase in lightning activity with convective available potential energy (CAPE). It has also been shown that CAPE increases linearly with potential wet bulb temperature, Tw (Williams et al, 1992). In this study, we examine the relationship between lightning ground flash incidence and the two parameters – surface rainfall and surface wet bulb maximum temperature for selected localities around Australia...

ZnO layers for opto-electronic applications from solution-based and low-temperature processing of an organometallic precursor

As printed and flexible plastic electronic gadgets become increasingly viable today, there is a need to develop materials that suit the fabrication processes involved. Two desirable requirements are solution-processable active materials or precursors and low-temperature processability. In this article, we describe a straightforward method of depositing ZnO films by simple spin coating of an organometallic diethylzinc precursor solution and annealing the resulting film at low temperatures (≤200 °C) without involving any synthetic steps. By controlling the humidity in which annealing is conducted, we are able to adjust the intrinsic doping level and carrier concentration in diethylzinc-derived ZnO. Doped or conducting transport layers are greatly preferable to undoped layers as they enable low-resistance contacts and minimize the potential drops. This ability to controllably realize doped ZnO is a key feature of the fabrication process that we describe in this article. We employ field-effect measurements as a diagnostic tool to measure doping levels and mobilities in ZnO and demonstrate that doped ZnO with high charge carrier concentration is ideal for solar cell applications. Respectable power conversion efficiencies (up to 4.5%) are achieved in inverted solar cells that incorporate diethylzinc-derived ZnO films as the electron transport layer and organic blends as the active material. Extensions of this approach to grow ternary and quaternary films with organometallic precursor chemicals will enable solution based growth of a number of semiconductor films as well as a method to dope them.

Engineering thin film semiconductor gas sensors to increase sensitivity and decrease operation temperature

Thin film nanostructured gas sensors typically operate at temperatures above 400°C, but lower temperature operation is highly desirable, especially for remote area field sensing as this reduces significantly power consumption. We have investigated a range of sensor materials based on both pure and doped tungsten oxide (mainly focusing on Fe-doping), deposited using both thermal evaporation and electron-beam evaporation, and using a variety of post-deposition annealing. The films show excellent sensitivity at operating temperatures as low as 150°C for detection of NO2. There is a definite relationship between the sensitivity and the crystallinity and nanostructure obtained through the deposition and heat treatment processes, as well as variations in the conductivity caused both by doping and heat treatmetn. The ultimate goal of this work is to control the sensing properties, including selectivity to specific gases through the engineering of the electronic properties and the nanostructure of the films.

The impact of Cool Roof applications on energy performance : results from Australian sub-tropical and tropical field studies

Cool roof coatings are identified by their solar reflectance index. They have been reported to have multiple benefits, the extent of which are strongly dependent on the peculiarities of the local climate, building stock and electricity network. This paper presents measured and simulated data from residential, educational and commercial buildings involved in recent field trials in Australia. The purpose of the field trials was to evaluate the impact of such coatings on electricity demand and load and to assess their potential application to improve comfort whilst avoiding the need for air conditioners. Measured reductions in temperature, power (kW) and energy (kWh) were used to develop a predictive model that correlates ambient temperature distribution profiles, building demand reduction profiles and electricity network peak demand times. Combined with simulated data, the study indicates the types of buildings that could be targeted in Demand Management programs for the mutual benefit of electricity networks and building occupants.

Field performance of in-service cast iron water reticulation pipe buried in reactive clay

Field monitoring is an important means for understanding soil behaviour and its interaction with buried structures such as pipeline. This paper details the successful instrumentation of a section of an in-service cast iron water main buried in an area of reactive clay where frequent water pipe breakage has been observed. The instrumentation included measurement of pipe strain; pipe water pressure and temperature; soil pressure, temperature, moisture content and matric suction, as well as the meteorological conditions on site. The data generally indicated that changes in soil temperature, suction and moisture content were directly related to the local climatic variations. The suction and moisture content data indicated that the soil profile at the site down to around 700 mm, and probably down to 1000 mm, is affected by changes in surface weather, while soil conditions below this depth appear to be more stable. Analysis of pipe strain indicated that the pipe behaves like a cantilever beam, with the top experiencing predominantly tensile strains during summer. Subsequently, these trends reduce to compressive strains as soil swelling occurs due to increase of moisture content with the onset of winter.

Atomic resolution of dielectric with low temperature coefficient

Ba(6-3x)Nd(8+2x)Ti(18)O(54) (BNTl14) is a high permittivity dielectric with low temperature coefficient (Tcf). Low coefficient of change of dielectric permittivity with temperature (Tcf) is an unusual materials property. The research is aimed at discovering how atomic structure relates to temperature coefficient. Sub-Ångström scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is used to measure mixed occupancy of Nd and Ba in atomic columns. It was expected that phase separation would occur to accommodate mixing of dissimilar ions. However no evidence of phase separation was found. There is a good image match between experiment and high angle annular dark field (HAADF) simulation. Vacancies and excess Ba ions appear to be randomly arranged on the available sites which would result in distortion of TiO6 octahedra. The low Tcf may arise from TiO6 distortion.

Field performance of in-service cast iron gas reticulation pipe buried in reactive clay

Field instrumentation of an in-service cast iron gas pipe buried in a residential area is detailed in this paper. The aim of the study was to monitor the long-term pipe behavior to understand the mechanisms of pipe bending in relation to ground movement as a result of seasonal fluctuation of soil moisture content. Field data showed that variation of soil temperature, suction, and moisture content are closely related to the prevailing climate. Change of soil temperature is generally related to the ambient air temperature, with a variation of approximately −3°C −3°C per meter depth from the ground surface in summer (decrease with depth) and winter (increase with depth). Seasonal cyclic variation in moisture content was observed with maxima in February and March, and a minimum around September. The pipe top was under tensile strain during summer and subsequently subjected to compressive strain as soil swelling occurred as a result of increase in moisture content. The study suggests that downward pipe bending occurs in summer because of soil shrinkage, while upward pipe bending occurs in winter when the soil swells.