Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Velocity and Concentration field of discharge from a boat propeller

Two-stroke outboard boat engines using total loss lubrication deposit a significant proportion of their lubricant and fuel directly into the water. The purpose of this work is to document the velocity and concentration field characteristics of a submerged swirling water jet emanating from a propeller in order to provide information on its fundamental characteristics. Measurements of the velocity and concentration field were performed in a turbulent jet generated by a model boat propeller (0.02 m diameter) operating at 1500 rpm and 3000 rpm. The measurements were carried out in the Zone of Established Flow up to 50 propeller diameters downstream of the propeller. Both the mean axial velocity profile and the mean concentration profile showed self-similarity. Further, the stand deviation growth curve was linear. The effects of propeller speed and dye release location were also investigated.

Deeply divergent mitochondrial lineages reveal patterns of local endemism in chironomids of the Australian Wet Tropics

The Wet Tropics bioregion of north-eastern Australia has been subject to extensive fluctuations in climate throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene. Cycles of rainforest contraction and expansion of dry sclerophyll forest associated with such climatic fluctuations are postulated to have played a major role in driving geographical endemism in terrestrial rainforest taxa. Consequences for the distributions of aquatic organisms, however, are poorly understood.The Australian non-biting midge species Echinocladius martini Cranston (Diptera: Chironomidae), although restricted to cool, well-forested freshwater streams, has been considered to be able to disperse among populations located in isolated rainforest pockets during periods of sclerophyllous forest expansion, potentially limiting the effect of climatic fluctuations on patterns of endemism. In this study, mitochondrial COI and 16S data were analysed for E. martini collected from eight sites spanning theWet Tropics bioregion to assess the scale and extent of phylogeographic structure. Analyses of genetic structure showed several highly divergent cryptic lineages with restricted geographical distributions. Within one of the identified lineages, strong genetic structure implied that dispersal among proximate (<1 km apart) streams was extremely restricted. The results suggest that vicariant processes, most likely due to the systemic drying of the Australian continent during the Plio-Pleistocene, might have fragmented historical E. martini populations and, hence, promoted divergence in allopatry.

Exponential asymptotics with multiple stokes lines

When asymptotic series methods are applied in order to solve problems that arise in applied mathematics in the limit that some parameter becomes small, they are unable to demonstrate behaviour that occurs on a scale that is exponentially small compared to the algebraic terms of the asymptotic series. There are many examples of physical systems where behaviour on this scale has important effects and, as such, a range of techniques known as exponential asymptotic techniques were developed that may be used to examinine behaviour on this exponentially small scale. Many problems in applied mathematics may be represented by behaviour within the complex plane, which may subsequently be examined using asymptotic methods. These problems frequently demonstrate behaviour known as Stokes phenomenon, which involves the rapid switches of behaviour on an exponentially small scale in the neighbourhood of some curve known as a Stokes line. Exponential asymptotic techniques have been applied in order to obtain an expression for this exponentially small switching behaviour in the solutions to orginary and partial differential equations. The problem of potential flow over a submerged obstacle has been previously considered in this manner by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006). By representing the problem in the complex plane and applying an exponential asymptotic technique, they were able to detect the switching, and subsequent behaviour, of exponentially small waves on the free surface of the flow in the limit of small Froude number, specifically considering the case of flow over a step with one Stokes line present in the complex plane. We consider an extension of this work to flow configurations with multiple Stokes lines, such as flow over an inclined step, or flow over a bump or trench. The resultant expressions are analysed, and demonstrate interesting implications, such as the presence of exponentially sub-subdominant intermediate waves and the possibility of trapped surface waves for flow over a bump or trench. We then consider the effect of multiple Stokes lines in higher order equations, particu- larly investigating the behaviour of higher-order Stokes lines in the solutions to partial differential equations. These higher-order Stokes lines switch off the ordinary Stokes lines themselves, adding a layer of complexity to the overall Stokes structure of the solution. Specifically, we consider the different approaches taken by Howls et al. (2004) and Chap- man & Mortimer (2005) in applying exponential asymptotic techniques to determine the higher-order Stokes phenomenon behaviour in the solution to a particular partial differ- ential equation.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programs on the efficiency in fisheries. The case of Australia's multispecies in northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programs in the form of buybacks or decommissioning programs have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programs is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet. The effective fishing power of the fleet, therefore, does not decrease in proportion to the number of vessels removed. Further, reduced crowding may increase efficiency of the remaining vessels. In this paper, the effects of a buyback program on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output distance function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. The results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was greater than that of the removed vessels, and that average efficiency of remaining vessels also increased as a result of reduced crowding.

Modelling of inflatable rescue boats (IRBs) in surf conditions to reduce injuries

The Inflatable Rescue Boat (IRB) is arguably the most effective rescue tool used by the Australian surf lifesavers. The exceptional features of high mobility and rapid response have enabled it to become an icon on Australia's popular beaches. However, the IRB's extensive use within an environment that is as rugged as it is spectacular, has led it to become a danger to those who risk their lives to save others. Epidemiological research revealed lower limb injuries to be predominant, particularly the right leg. The common types of injuries were fractures and dislocations, as well as muscle or ligament strains and tears. The concern expressed by Surf Life Saving Queensland (SLSQ) and Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) led to a biomechanical investigation into this unique and relatively unresearched field. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of injury and propose processes that may reduce the instances and severity of injury to surf lifesavers during IRB operation. Following a review of related research, a design analysis of the craft was undertaken as an introduction to the craft, its design and uses. The mechanical characteristics of the vessel were then evaluated and the accelerations applied to the crew in the IRB were established through field tests. The data were then combined and modelled in the 3-D mathematical modelling and simulation package, MADYMO. A tool was created to compare various scenarios of boat design and methods of operation to determine possible mechanisms to reduce injuries. The results of this study showed that under simulated wave loading the boats flex around a pivot point determined by the position of the hinge in the floorboard. It was also found that the accelerations experienced by the crew exhibited similar characteristics to road vehicle accidents. Staged simulations indicated the attributes of an optimum foam in terms of thickness and density. Likewise, modelling of the boat and crew produced simulations that predicted realistic crew response to tested variables. Unfortunately, the observed lack of adherence to the SLSA footstrap Standard has impeded successful epidemiological and modelling outcomes. If uniformity of boat setup can be assured then epidemiological studies will be able to highlight the influence of implementing changes to the boat design. In conclusion, the research provided a tool to successfully link the epidemiology and injury diagnosis to the mechanical engineering design through the use of biomechanics. This was a novel application of the mathematical modelling software MADYMO. Other craft can also be investigated in this manner to provide solutions to the problem identified and therefore reduce risk of injury for the operators.

Experiments in visual localisation around underwater structures

Localisation of an AUV is challenging and a range of inspection applications require relatively accurate positioning information with respect to submerged structures. We have developed a vision based localisation method that uses a 3D model of the structure to be inspected. The system comprises a monocular vision system, a spotlight and a low-cost IMU. Previous methods that attempt to solve the problem in a similar way try and factor out the effects of lighting. Effects, such as shading on curved surfaces or specular reflections, are heavily dependent on the light direction and are difficult to deal with when using existing techniques. The novelty of our method is that we explicitly model the light source. Results are shown of an implementation on a small AUV in clear water at night.

The urban littoral frontier : land reclamation in the history of human settlements

The urban waterfront may be regarded as the littoral frontier of human settlement. Typically, over the years, it advances, sometimes retreats, where terrestrial and aquatic processes interact and frequently contest this margin of occupation. Because most towns and cities are sited beside water bodies, many of these urban centers on or close to the sea, their physical expansion is constrained by the existence of aquatic areas in one or more directions from the core. It is usually much easier for new urban development to occur along or inland from the waterfront. Where other physical constraints, such as rugged hills or mountains, make expansion difficult or expensive, building at greater densities or construction on steep slopes is a common response. This kind of development, though technically feasible, is usually more expensive than construction on level or gently sloping land, however. Moreover, there are many reasons for developing along the shore or riverfront in preference to using sites further inland. The high cost of developing existing dry land that presents serious construction difficulties is one reason for creating new land from adjacent areas that are permanently or periodically under water. Another reason is the relatively high value of artificially created land close to the urban centre when compared with the value of existing developable space at a greater distance inland. The creation of space for development is not the only motivation for urban expansion into aquatic areas. Commonly, urban places on the margins of the sea, estuaries, rivers or great lakes are, or were once, ports where shipping played an important role in the economy. The demand for deep waterfronts to allow ships to berth and for adjacent space to accommodate various port facilities has encouraged the advance of the urban land area across marginal shallows in ports around the world. The space and locational demands of port related industry and commerce, too, have contributed to this process. Often closely related to these developments is the generation of waste, including domestic refuse, unwanted industrial by-products, site formation and demolition debris and harbor dredgings. From ancient times, the foreshore has been used as a disposal area for waste from nearby settlements, a practice that continues on a huge scale today. Land formed in this way has long been used for urban development, despite problems that can arise from the nature of the dumped material and the way in which it is deposited. Disposal of waste material is a major factor in the creation of new urban land. Pollution of the foreshore and other water margin wetlands in this way encouraged the idea that the reclamation of these areas may be desirable on public health grounds. With reference to examples from various parts of the world, the historical development of the urban littoral frontier and its effects on the morphology and character of towns and cities are illustrated and discussed. The threat of rising sea levels and the heritage value of many waterfront areas are other considerations that are addressed.

Sustainable urban stormwater management : water sensitive urban design perceptions, drivers and barriers

Stormwater has been recognised as one of the main culprits of aquatic ecosystem pollution and as a significant threat to the goal of ecological sustainable development. Water sensitive urban design is one of the key responses to the need to better manage urban stormwater runoff, the objectives of which go beyond rapid and efficient conveyance. Underpinned by the concepts of sustainable urban development, water sensitive urban design has proven to be an efficient and environmentally-friendly approach to urban stormwater management, with the necessary technical know-how and skills already available. However, large-scale implementation of water sensitive urban design is still lacking in Australia due to significant impediments and negative perceptions. Identification of the issues, barriers and drivers that affect sustainability outcomes of urban stormwater management is one of the first steps towards encouraging the wide-scale uptake of water sensitive urban design features which integrate sustainable urban stormwater management. This chapter investigates key water sensitive urban design perceptions, drivers and barriers in order to improve sustainable urban stormwater management efforts.

Investigating challenges and opportunities of water sensitive urban design for knowledge based development of Australian cities

A new approach that is slowly replacing neoclassical models of economic growth and commodity based industrial activities, knowledge based urban development (KBUD) aims to provide opportunities for citiesw to foster knowledge creation, exchange and innovation, and is based on the concepts of both sustainable urban development and economic prosperity; sustainable uses and protection of natural resources are therefore integral parts of KBUD. As such, stormwater, which has been recognised as one of the main culprits of aquatic ecosystem pollution and as therefore a significant threat to the goal of sustainable urban development, needs to be managed in a manner that produces ecologically sound outcomes. Water sensitive urban design (WSUD) is one of the key responses to the need to better management urban stormwater runoff and supports KBUD by providing an alternative, innovative and effective strategy to traditional stormwater management.

Engineering an Ecosystem : Taking Cues from Nature’s Paradigm to Build Tissue in the Lab and the Body

This manuscript took a 'top down' approach to understanding survival of inhabitant cells in the ecosystem bone, working from higher to lower length and time scales through the hierarchical ecosystem of bone. Our working hypothesis is that nature “engineered” the skeleton using a 'bottom up' approach,where mechanical properties of cells emerge from their adaptation to their local me-chanical milieu. Cell aggregation and formation of higher order anisotropic struc- ture results in emergent architectures through cell differentiation and extracellular matrix secretion. These emergent properties, including mechanical properties and architecture, result in mechanical adaptation at length scales and longer time scales which are most relevant for the survival of the vertebrate organism [Knothe Tate and von Recum 2009]. We are currently using insights from this approach to har-ness nature’s regeneration potential and to engineer novel mechanoactive materials [Knothe Tate et al. 2007, Knothe Tate et al. 2009]. In addition to potential applications of these exciting insights, these studies may provide important clues to evolution and development of vertebrate animals. For instance, one might ask why mesenchymal stem cells condense at all? There is a putative advantage to self-assembly and cooperation, but this advantage is somewhat outweighed by the need for infrastructural complexity (e.g., circulatory systems comprised of specific differentiated cell types which in turn form conduits and pumps to overcome limitations of mass transport via diffusion, for example; dif-fusion is untenable for multicellular organisms larger than 250 microns in diameter. A better question might be: Why do cells build skeletal tissue? Once cooperatingcells in tissues begin to deplete local sources of food in their aquatic environment, those that have evolved a means to locomote likely have an evolutionary advantage. Once the environment becomes less aquarian and more terrestrial, self-assembled organisms with the ability to move on land might have conferred evolutionary ad-vantages as well. So did the cytoskeleton evolve several length scales, enabling the emergence of skeletal architecture for vertebrate animals? Did the evolutionary advantage of motility over noncompliant terrestrial substrates (walking on land) favor adaptations including emergence of intracellular architecture (changes in the cytoskeleton and upregulation of structural protein manufacture), inter-cellular con- densation, mineralization of tissues, and emergence of higher order architectures?How far does evolutionary Darwinism extend and how can we exploit this knowl- edge to engineer smart materials and architectures on Earth and new, exploratory environments?[Knothe Tate et al. 2008]. We are limited only by our ability to imagine. Ultimately, we aim to understand nature, mimic nature, guide nature and/or exploit nature’s engineering paradigms without engineer-ing ourselves out of existence.

Planning and implementing trajectories for autonomous underwater vehicles to track evolving ocean processes based on predictions from a regional ocean model

Path planning and trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community because automated data collection is becoming more prevalent. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations to perform data collection. In this paper, we present algorithms that determine paths for AUVs to track evolving features of interest in the ocean by considering the output of predictive ocean models. While traversing the computed path, the vehicle provides near-real-time, in situ measurements back to the model, with the intent to increase the skill of future predictions in the local region. The results presented here extend prelim- inary developments of the path planning portion of an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. This extension is the incorporation of multiple vehicles to track the centroid and the boundary of the extent of a feature of interest. Similar algorithms to those presented here are under development to consider additional locations for multiple types of features. The primary focus here is on algorithm development utilizing model predictions to assist in solving the motion planning problem of steering an AUV to high-valued locations, with respect to the data desired. We discuss the design technique to generate the paths, present simulation results and provide experimental data from field deployments for tracking dynamic features by use of an AUV in the Southern California coastal ocean.

Autonomous underwater vehicle trajectory design coupled with predictive ocean models : a case study

Data collection using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is increasing in importance within the oceano- graphic research community. Contrary to traditional moored or static platforms, mobile sensors require intelligent planning strategies to manoeuvre through the ocean. However, the ability to navigate to high-value locations and collect data with specific scientific merit is worth the planning efforts. In this study, we examine the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, and aid in planning the trajectory that the vehicle executes during the sampling mission. The objectives are: a) to provide near-real time, in situ measurements to a large-scale ocean model to increase the skill of future predictions, and b) to utilize ocean model predictions as a component in an end-to-end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We present an algorithm designed to generate paths for AUVs to track a dynamically evolving ocean feature utilizing ocean model predictions. This builds on previous work in this area by incorporating the predicted current velocities into the path planning to assist in solving the 3-D motion planning problem of steering an AUV between two selected locations. We present simulation results for tracking a fresh water plume by use of our algorithm. Additionally, we present experimental results from field trials that test the skill of the model used as well as the incorporation of the model predictions into an AUV trajectory planner. These results indicate a modest, but measurable, improvement in surfacing error when the model predictions are incorporated into the planner.

A geometrical analysis of trajectory design for underwater vehicles

Designing trajectories for a submerged rigid body motivates this paper. Two approaches are addressed: the time optimal approach and the motion planning ap- proach using concatenation of kinematic motions. We focus on the structure of singular extremals and their relation to the existence of rank-one kinematic reduc- tions; thereby linking the optimization problem to the inherent geometric frame- work. Using these kinematic reductions, we provide a solution to the motion plan- ning problem in the under-actuated scenario, or equivalently, in the case of actuator failures. We finish the paper comparing a time optimal trajectory to one formed by concatenation of pure motions.

Trajectory design for autonomous underwater vehicles based on ocean model predictions for feature tracking

Trajectory design for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) is of great importance to the oceanographic research community. Intelligent planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to high-valued locations for data collection. We consider the use of ocean model predictions to determine the locations to be visited by an AUV, which then provides near-real time, in situ measurements back to the model to increase the skill of future predictions. The motion planning problem of steering the vehicle between the computed waypoints is not considered here. Our focus is on the algorithm to determine relevant points of interest for a chosen oceanographic feature. This represents a first approach to an end to end autonomous prediction and tasking system for aquatic, mobile sensor networks. We design a sampling plan and present experimental results with AUV retasking in the Southern California Bight (SCB) off the coast of Los Angeles.