Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Energy efficient home with price sensitive stochastically programmable TCAs

Introduction of dynamic pricing in present retail market, considerably affects customers with an increased cost of energy consumption. Therefore, customers are enforced to control their loads according to price variation. This paper proposes a new technique of Home Energy Management, which helps customers to minimize their cost of energy consumption by appropriately controlling their loads. Thermostatically Controllable Appliances (TCAs) such as air conditioner and water heater are focused in this study, as they consume more than 50% of the total household energy consumption. The control process includes stochastic dynamic programming, which incorporated uncertainties in price and demand variation. It leads to an accurate selection of appliance settings. It is followed by a real time control of selected appliances with its optimal settings. Temperature set points of TCAs are adjusted based on price droop which is a reflection of actual cost of energy consumption. Customer satisfaction is maintained within limits using constraint optimization. It is showed that considerable energy savings is achieved.

Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes

Invasive non-native plants have negatively impacted on biodiversity and ecosystem functions world-wide. Because of the large number of species, their wide distributions and varying degrees of impact, we need a more effective method for prioritizing control strategies for cost-effective investment across heterogeneous landscapes. Here, we develop a prioritization framework that synthesizes scientific data, elicits knowledge from experts and stakeholders to identify control strategies, and appraises the cost-effectiveness of strategies. Our objective was to identify the most cost-effective strategies for reducing the total area dominated by high-impact non-native plants in the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). We use a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin that comprises some of the most distinctive Australian landscapes, including Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park. More than 240 non-native plant species are recorded in the Lake Eyre Basin, with many predicted to spread, but there are insufficient resources to control all species. Lake Eyre Basin experts identified 12 strategies to control, contain or eradicate non-native species over the next 50 years. The total cost of the proposed Lake Eyre Basin strategies was estimated at AU$1·7 billion, an average of AU$34 million annually. Implementation of these strategies is estimated to reduce non-native plant dominance by 17 million ha – there would be a 32% reduction in the likely area dominated by non-native plants within 50 years if these strategies were implemented. The three most cost-effective strategies were controlling Parkinsonia aculeata, Ziziphus mauritiana and Prosopis spp. These three strategies combined were estimated to cost only 0·01% of total cost of all the strategies, but would provide 20% of the total benefits. Over 50 years, cost-effective spending of AU$2·3 million could eradicate all non-native plant species from the only threatened ecological community within the Lake Eyre Basin, the Great Artesian Basin discharge springs. Synthesis and applications. Our framework, based on a case study of the ˜120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants, for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions.

Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

Stochastic output feedback model predictive control

This paper addresses the issue of output feedback model predictive control for linear systems with input constraints and stochastic disturbances. We show that the optimal policy uses the Kalman filter for state estimation, but the resultant state estimates are not utilized in a certainty equivalence control law

Multi-action recognition via stochastic modelling of optical flow and gradients

In this paper we propose a novel approach to multi-action recognition that performs joint segmentation and classification. This approach models each action using a Gaussian mixture using robust low-dimensional action features. Segmentation is achieved by performing classification on overlapping temporal windows, which are then merged to produce the final result. This approach is considerably less complicated than previous methods which use dynamic programming or computationally expensive hidden Markov models (HMMs). Initial experiments on a stitched version of the KTH dataset show that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 78.3%, outperforming a recent HMM-based approach which obtained 71.2%.

Impromptu : an interactive programming environment for composition and performance

Interactive development environments are making a resurgence. The traditional batch style of programming, edit -> compile -> run, is slowly being reevaluated by the development community at large. Languages such as Perl, Python and Ruby are at the heart of a new programming culture commonly described as extreme, agile or dynamic. Musicians are also beginning to embrace these environments and to investigate the opportunity to use dynamic programming tools in live performance. This paper provides an introduction to Impromptu, a new interactive development environment for musicians and sound artists.

Dwell-time and run-time control for DC mass rapid transit railways

Dwell times at stations and inter-station run times are the two major operational parameters to maintain train schedule in railway service. Current practices on dwell-time and run-time control are that they are only optimal with respect to certain nominal traffic conditions, but not necessarily the current service demand. The advantages of dwell-time and run-time control on trains are therefore not fully considered. The application of a dynamic programming approach, with the aid of an event-based model, to devise an optimal set of dwell times and run times for trains under given operational constraints over a regional level is presented. Since train operation is interactive and of multi-attributes, dwell-time and run-time coordination among trains is a multi-dimensional problem. The computational demand on devising trains' instructions, a prime concern in real-time applications, is excessively high. To properly reduce the computational demand in the provision of appropriate dwell times and run times for trains, a DC railway line is divided into a number of regions and each region is controlled by a dwell- time and run-time controller. The performance and feasibility of the controller in formulating the dwell-time and run-time solutions for real-time applications are demonstrated through simulations.

Optimal traffic control at railway junctions

Conflict occurs when two or more trains approach the same junction within a specified time. Such conflicts result in delays. Current practices to assign the right of way at junctions achieve orderly and safe passage of the trains, but do not attempt to reduce the delays. A traffic controller developed in the paper assigns right of way to impose minimum total weighted delay on the trains. The traffic flow model and the optimisation technique used in this controller are described. Simulation studies of the performance of the controller are given.

A Taxonomy of image matching techniques for stereo vision

Stereo vision is a method of depth perception, in which depth information is inferred from two (or more) images of a scene, taken from different perspectives. Applications of stereo vision include aerial photogrammetry, autonomous vehicle guidance, robotics, industrial automation and stereomicroscopy. A key issue in stereo vision is that of image matching, or identifying corresponding points in a stereo pair. The difference in the positions of corresponding points in image coordinates is termed the parallax or disparity. When the orientation of the two cameras is known, corresponding points may be projected back to find the location of the original object point in world coordinates. Matching techniques are typically categorised according to the nature of the matching primitives they use and the matching strategy they employ. This report provides a detailed taxonomy of image matching techniques, including area based, transform based, feature based, phase based, hybrid, relaxation based, dynamic programming and object space methods. A number of area based matching metrics as well as the rank and census transforms were implemented, in order to investigate their suitability for a real-time stereo sensor for mining automation applications. The requirements of this sensor were speed, robustness, and the ability to produce a dense depth map. The Sum of Absolute Differences matching metric was the least computationally expensive; however, this metric was the most sensitive to radiometric distortion. Metrics such as the Zero Mean Sum of Absolute Differences and Normalised Cross Correlation were the most robust to this type of distortion but introduced additional computational complexity. The rank and census transforms were found to be robust to radiometric distortion, in addition to having low computational complexity. They are therefore prime candidates for a matching algorithm for a stereo sensor for real-time mining applications. A number of issues came to light during this investigation which may merit further work. These include devising a means to evaluate and compare disparity results of different matching algorithms, and finding a method of assigning a level of confidence to a match. Another issue of interest is the possibility of statistically combining the results of different matching algorithms, in order to improve robustness.

Optimal-stopping control for airborne collision avoidance and return-to-course flight

This paper considers an aircraft collision avoidance design problem that also incorporates design of the aircraft’s return-to-course flight. This control design problem is formulated as a non-linear optimal-stopping control problem; a formulation that does not require a prior knowledge of time taken to perform the avoidance and return-to-course manoeuvre. A dynamic programming solution to the avoidance and return-to-course problem is presented, before a Markov chain numerical approximation technique is described. Simulation results are presented that illustrate the proposed collision avoidance and return-to-course flight approach.

An optimal design for screening trials

Yao, Begg, and Livingston (1996, Biometrics 52, 992-1001) considered the optimal group size for testing a series of potentially therapeutic agents to identify a promising one as soon as possible for given error rates. The number of patients to be tested with each agent was fixed as the group size. We consider a sequential design that allows early acceptance and rejection, and we provide an optimal strategy to minimize the sample sizes (patients) required using Markov decision processes. The minimization is under the constraints of the two types (false positive and false negative) of error probabilities, with the Lagrangian multipliers corresponding to the cost parameters for the two types of errors. Numerical studies indicate that there can be a substantial reduction in the number of patients required.

A note on Gittins indexes for pharmaceutical research

The Bernoulli/exponential target process is considered. Such processes have been found useful in modelling the search for active compounds in pharmaceutical research. An inequality is presented which improves a result of Gittins (1989), thus providing a better approximation to the Gittins indices which define the optimal search policy.