Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

Detecting collusive fraud in enterprise resource planning systems

In today's technological age, fraud has become more complicated, and increasingly more difficult to detect, especially when it is collusive in nature. Different fraud surveys showed that the median loss from collusive fraud is much greater than fraud perpetrated by a single person. Despite its prevalence and potentially devastating effects, collusion is commonly overlooked as an organizational risk. Internal auditors often fail to proactively consider collusion in their fraud assessment and detection efforts. In this paper, we consider fraud scenarios with collusion. We present six potentially collusive fraudulent behaviors and show their detection process in an ERP system. We have enhanced our fraud detection framework to utilize aggregation of different sources of logs in order to detect communication and have further enhanced it to render it system-agnostic thus achieving portability and making it generally applicable to all ERP systems.

Building a software architecture for a human-robot team using the ORCA framework

This paper considers the problem of building a software architecture for a human-robot team. The objective of the team is to build a multi-attribute map of the world by performing information fusion. A decentralized approach to information fusion is adopted to achieve the system properties of scalability and survivability. Decentralization imposes constraints on the design of the architecture and its implementation. We show how a Component-Based Software Engineering approach can address these constraints. The architecture is implemented using Orca – a component-based software framework for robotic systems. Experimental results from a deployed system comprised of an unmanned air vehicle, a ground vehicle, and two human operators are presented. A section on the lessons learned is included which may be applicable to other distributed systems with complex algorithms. We also compare Orca to the Player software framework in the context of distributed systems.

Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Neural differentiation potential of human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells: misleading marker gene expression

Background In contrast to pluripotent embryonic stem cells, adult stem cells have been considered to be multipotent, being somewhat more restricted in their differentiation capacity and only giving rise to cell types related to their tissue of origin. Several studies, however, have reported that bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are capable of transdifferentiating to neural cell types, effectively crossing normal lineage restriction boundaries. Such reports have been based on the detection of neural-related proteins by the differentiated MSCs. In order to assess the potential of human adult MSCs to undergo true differentiation to a neural lineage and to determine the degree of homogeneity between donor samples, we have used RT-PCR and immunocytochemistry to investigate the basal expression of a range of neural related mRNAs and proteins in populations of non-differentiated MSCs obtained from 4 donors. Results The expression analysis revealed that several of the commonly used marker genes from other studies like nestin, Enolase2 and microtubule associated protein 1b (MAP1b) are already expressed by undifferentiated human MSCs. Furthermore, mRNA for some of the neural-related transcription factors, e.g. Engrailed-1 and Nurr1 were also strongly expressed. However, several other neural-related mRNAs (e.g. DRD2, enolase2, NFL and MBP) could be identified, but not in all donor samples. Similarly, synaptic vesicle-related mRNA, STX1A could only be detected in 2 of the 4 undifferentiated donor hMSC samples. More significantly, each donor sample revealed a unique expression pattern, demonstrating a significant variation of marker expression. Conclusion The present study highlights the existence of an inter-donor variability of expression of neural-related markers in human MSC samples that has not previously been described. This donor-related heterogeneity might influence the reproducibility of transdifferentiation protocols as well as contributing to the ongoing controversy about differentiation capacities of MSCs. Therefore, further studies need to consider the differences between donor samples prior to any treatment as well as the possibility of harvesting donor cells that may be inappropriate for transplantation strategies.