Incorporating uncertainty in environmental models informed by imagery

In this thesis, the issue of incorporating uncertainty for environmental modelling informed by imagery is explored by considering uncertainty in deterministic modelling, measurement uncertainty and uncertainty in image composition. Incorporating uncertainty in deterministic modelling is extended for use with imagery using the Bayesian melding approach. In the application presented, slope steepness is shown to be the main contributor to total uncertainty in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. A spatial sampling procedure is also proposed to assist in implementing Bayesian melding given the increased data size with models informed by imagery. Measurement error models are another approach to incorporating uncertainty when data is informed by imagery. These models for measurement uncertainty, considered in a Bayesian conditional independence framework, are applied to ecological data generated from imagery. The models are shown to be appropriate and useful in certain situations. Measurement uncertainty is also considered in the context of change detection when two images are not co-registered. An approach for detecting change in two successive images is proposed that is not affected by registration. The procedure uses the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on homogeneous segments of an image to detect change, with the homogeneous segments determined using a Bayesian mixture model of pixel values. Using the mixture model to segment an image also allows for uncertainty in the composition of an image. This thesis concludes by comparing several different Bayesian image segmentation approaches that allow for uncertainty regarding the allocation of pixels to different ground components. Each segmentation approach is applied to a data set of chlorophyll values and shown to have different benefits and drawbacks depending on the aims of the analysis.

Description and evaluation of a Newton-based electronic appetite rating system for temporal tracking of appetite in human subjects

This study assessed the reliability and validity of a palm-top-based electronic appetite rating system (EARS) in relation to the traditional paper and pen method. Twenty healthy subjects [10 male (M) and 10 female (F)] — mean age M=31 years (S.D.=8), F=27 years (S.D.=5); mean BMI M=24 (S.D.=2), F=21 (S.D.=5) — participated in a 4-day protocol. Measurements were made on days 1 and 4. Subjects were given paper and an EARS to log hourly subjective motivation to eat during waking hours. Food intake and meal times were fixed. Subjects were given a maintenance diet (comprising 40% fat, 47% carbohydrate and 13% protein by energy) calculated at 1.6×Resting Metabolic Rate (RMR), as three isoenergetic meals. Bland and Altman's test for bias between two measurement techniques found significant differences between EARS and paper and pen for two of eight responses (hunger and fullness). Regression analysis confirmed that there were no day, sex or order effects between ratings obtained using either technique. For 15 subjects, there was no significant difference between results, with a linear relationship between the two methods that explained most of the variance (r2 ranged from 62.6 to 98.6). The slope for all subjects was less than 1, which was partly explained by a tendency for bias at the extreme end of results on the EARS technique. These data suggest that the EARS is a useful and reliable technique for real-time data collection in appetite research but that it should not be used interchangeably with paper and pen techniques.

Green fireballs and ball lightning

This paper presents evidence of an apparent connection between ball lightning and a green fireball. On the evening of the 16th May 2006 at least three fireballs were seen by many people in the skies of Queensland, Australia. One of the fireballs was seen passing over the Great Divide about 120 km west of Brisbane, and soon after, a luminous green ball about 30 cm in diameter was seen rolling down the slope of the Great Divide. A detailed description given by a witness indicates that the phenomenon was probably a highly luminous form of ball lightning. An hypothesis presented in this paper is that the passage of the Queensland fireball meteor created an electrically conductive path between the ionosphere and ground, providing energy for the ball lightning phenomenon. A strong similarity is noted between the Queensland fireball and the Pasamonte fireball seen in New Mexico in 1933. Both meteors exhibit a twist in the tail that could be explained by hydrodynamic forces. The possibility that multiple sightings of fireballs across South East Queensland were produced owing to fragments from comet 73P Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 is discussed.

Effects of dry density and grain size distribution on soil-water characteristic curves of sandy soils

The unsaturated soil mechanics is receiving increasing attention from researchers and as well as from practicing engineers. However, the requirement of sophisticated devices to measure unsaturated soil properties and time consumption have made the geotechnical engineers keep away from implication of the unsaturated soil mechanics for solving practical geotechnical problems. The application of the conventional laboratory devices with some modifications to measure unsaturated soil properties can promote the application of unsaturated soil mechanics into engineering practice. Therefore, in the present study, a conventional direct shear device was modified to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction. Specially, for the analysis of rain-induced slope failures, it is important to measure unsaturated shear strength parameters at low suction where slopes become unstable. The modified device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying path and wetting path of soil-water characteristic curves (SWCCs) of soils. The results revealed that the internal friction angle of soil was not significantly affected by the suction and as well as the drying-wetting SWCCs of soils. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as the suction increased. Further, the apparent cohesion obtained from soil in wetting was greater than that obtained from soil in drying. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as the suction increased. In addition, it was observed that soil became more dilative with the increase of suction. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behaviour than that of in drying at the same net normal stress and the suction.

Investigation on parameters used in warning systems for rain-induced embankment instability

A number of instrumented laboratory-scale soil embankment slopes were subjected to artificial rainfall until they failed. The factor of safety of the slope based on real-time measurements of pore-water pressure (suction) and laboratory measured soil properties were calculated as the rainfall progressed. Based on the experiment measurements and slope stability analysis, it was observed that slope displacement measurements can be used to warn the slope failure more accurately. Further, moisture content/pore-water pressure measurements near the toe of the slope and the real-time factor of safety can also be used for prediction of rainfall-induced embankment failures with adequate accuracy.

The effect of red blood cell orientation on the electrical impedance of pulsatile blood with implications for impedance cardiography

Impedance cardiography is an application of bioimpedance analysis primarily used in a research setting to determine cardiac output. It is a non invasive technique that measures the change in the impedance of the thorax which is attributed to the ejection of a volume of blood from the heart. The cardiac output is calculated from the measured impedance using the parallel conductor theory and a constant value for the resistivity of blood. However, the resistivity of blood has been shown to be velocity dependent due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells induced by changing shear forces during flow. The overall goal of this thesis was to study the effect that flow deviations have on the electrical impedance of blood, both experimentally and theoretically, and to apply the results to a clinical setting. The resistivity of stationary blood is isotropic as the red blood cells are randomly orientated due to Brownian motion. In the case of blood flowing through rigid tubes, the resistivity is anisotropic due to the biconcave discoidal shape and orientation of the cells. The generation of shear forces across the width of the tube during flow causes the cells to align with the minimal cross sectional area facing the direction of flow. This is in order to minimise the shear stress experienced by the cells. This in turn results in a larger cross sectional area of plasma and a reduction in the resistivity of the blood as the flow increases. Understanding the contribution of this effect on the thoracic impedance change is a vital step in achieving clinical acceptance of impedance cardiography. Published literature investigates the resistivity variations for constant blood flow. In this case, the shear forces are constant and the impedance remains constant during flow at a magnitude which is less than that for stationary blood. The research presented in this thesis, however, investigates the variations in resistivity of blood during pulsataile flow through rigid tubes and the relationship between impedance, velocity and acceleration. Using rigid tubes isolates the impedance change to variations associated with changes in cell orientation only. The implications of red blood cell orientation changes for clinical impedance cardiography were also explored. This was achieved through measurement and analysis of the experimental impedance of pulsatile blood flowing through rigid tubes in a mock circulatory system. A novel theoretical model including cell orientation dynamics was developed for the impedance of pulsatile blood through rigid tubes. The impedance of flowing blood was theoretically calculated using analytical methods for flow through straight tubes and the numerical Lattice Boltzmann method for flow through complex geometries such as aortic valve stenosis. The result of the analytical theoretical model was compared to the experimental impedance measurements through rigid tubes. The impedance calculated for flow through a stenosis using the Lattice Boltzmann method provides results for comparison with impedance cardiography measurements collected as part of a pilot clinical trial to assess the suitability of using bioimpedance techniques to assess the presence of aortic stenosis. The experimental and theoretical impedance of blood was shown to inversely follow the blood velocity during pulsatile flow with a correlation of -0.72 and -0.74 respectively. The results for both the experimental and theoretical investigations demonstrate that the acceleration of the blood is an important factor in determining the impedance, in addition to the velocity. During acceleration, the relationship between impedance and velocity is linear (r2 = 0.98, experimental and r2 = 0.94, theoretical). The relationship between the impedance and velocity during the deceleration phase is characterised by a time decay constant, ô , ranging from 10 to 50 s. The high level of agreement between the experimental and theoretically modelled impedance demonstrates the accuracy of the model developed here. An increase in the haematocrit of the blood resulted in an increase in the magnitude of the impedance change due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells. The time decay constant was shown to decrease linearly with the haematocrit for both experimental and theoretical results, although the slope of this decrease was larger in the experimental case. The radius of the tube influences the experimental and theoretical impedance given the same velocity of flow. However, when the velocity was divided by the radius of the tube (labelled the reduced average velocity) the impedance response was the same for two experimental tubes with equivalent reduced average velocity but with different radii. The temperature of the blood was also shown to affect the impedance with the impedance decreasing as the temperature increased. These results are the first published for the impedance of pulsatile blood. The experimental impedance change measured orthogonal to the direction of flow is in the opposite direction to that measured in the direction of flow. These results indicate that the impedance of blood flowing through rigid cylindrical tubes is axisymmetric along the radius. This has not previously been verified experimentally. Time frequency analysis of the experimental results demonstrated that the measured impedance contains the same frequency components occuring at the same time point in the cycle as the velocity signal contains. This suggests that the impedance contains many of the fluctuations of the velocity signal. Application of a theoretical steady flow model to pulsatile flow presented here has verified that the steady flow model is not adequate in calculating the impedance of pulsatile blood flow. The success of the new theoretical model over the steady flow model demonstrates that the velocity profile is important in determining the impedance of pulsatile blood. The clinical application of the impedance of blood flow through a stenosis was theoretically modelled using the Lattice Boltzman method (LBM) for fluid flow through complex geometeries. The impedance of blood exiting a narrow orifice was calculated for varying degrees of stenosis. Clincial impedance cardiography measurements were also recorded for both aortic valvular stenosis patients (n = 4) and control subjects (n = 4) with structurally normal hearts. This pilot trial was used to corroborate the results of the LBM. Results from both investigations showed that the decay time constant for impedance has potential in the assessment of aortic valve stenosis. In the theoretically modelled case (LBM results), the decay time constant increased with an increase in the degree of stenosis. The clinical results also showed a statistically significant difference in time decay constant between control and test subjects (P = 0.03). The time decay constant calculated for test subjects (ô = 180 - 250 s) is consistently larger than that determined for control subjects (ô = 50 - 130 s). This difference is thought to be due to difference in the orientation response of the cells as blood flows through the stenosis. Such a non-invasive technique using the time decay constant for screening of aortic stenosis provides additional information to that currently given by impedance cardiography techniques and improves the value of the device to practitioners. However, the results still need to be verified in a larger study. While impedance cardiography has not been widely adopted clinically, it is research such as this that will enable future acceptance of the method.

Pre-eruptive uplift in the Emeishan? [Correspondence]

In their correspondence, He and colleagues question our conclusion of little or no uplift preceding Emeishan volcanism that we reported in our letter1. Debate concerns the nature of the contact between the Maokou limestone and Emeishan volcanics, the depositional environment and volumetric significance of mafic hydromagmatic deposits (MHDs), and evidence for symmetrical domal thinning. MHDs in the Daqiao section are separated from the Maokou limestone by 100 m of subaerial basaltic lavas, but elsewhere MHDs — previously interpreted as basal conglomerates2, 3 — directly overlie the Maokou2, 3. MHDs thus feature strongly in basal sections of the Emeishan lava succession, as also recently shown4 elsewhere in the Emeishan. An irregular surface at the top of the Maokou limestone has been interpreted as an erosional unconformity2, 3, but clastic deposits presented as evidence of this erosion2, 3 are MHDs produced by explosive magma–water interaction1. A clear demonstration that this irregular top surface is an erosional truncation of limestone reef facies (slope/rim, flat, lagoonal) is currently lacking, but is critical because reefs and carbonate platforms show considerable natural relief of tens of metres. The persistent hot, wet climate since the Oligocene has produced well-developed weathering profiles on exposed Palaeozoic marine sedimentary sequences5, but weathering and karst relief of the uppermost Maokou limestone underlying the flood basalts have not been properly documented, nor shown to be of middle Permian age and immediately preceding emplacement of the large igneous province.

Biceps brachii muscle oxygenation in electrical muscle stimulation

The purpose of this study was to compare between electrical muscle stimulation (EMS) and maximal voluntary (VOL) isometric contractions of the elbow flexors for changes in biceps brachii muscle oxygenation (tissue oxygenation index, TOI) and haemodynamics (total haemoglobin volume, tHb = oxygenated-Hb + deoxygenated-Hb) determined by near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). The biceps brachii muscle of 10 healthy men (23–39 years) was electrically stimulated at high frequency (75 Hz) via surface electrodes to evoke 50 intermittent (4-s contraction, 15-s relaxation) isometric contractions at maximum tolerated current level (EMS session). The contralateral arm performed 50 intermittent (4-s contraction, 15-s relaxation) maximal voluntary isometric contractions (VOL session) in a counterbalanced order separated by 2–3 weeks. Results indicated that although the torque produced during EMS was approximately 50% of VOL (P<0Æ05), there was no significant difference in the changes in TOI amplitude or TOI slope between EMS and VOL over the 50 contractions. However, the TOI amplitude divided by peak torque was approximately 50% lower for EMS than VOL (P<0Æ05), which indicates EMS was less efficient than VOL. This seems likely because of the difference in the muscles involved in the force production between conditions. Mean decrease in tHb amplitude during the contraction phases was significantly (P<0Æ05) greater for EMS than VOL from the 10th contraction onwards, suggesting that the muscle blood volume was lower in EMS than VOL. It is concluded that local oxygen demand of the biceps brachii sampled by NIRS is similar between VOL and EMS.

Human-body shadowing effects on indoor MIMO-OFDM channels at 5.2 GHz

Pedestrian movement is known to cause significant effects on indoor MIMO channels. In this paper, a statistical characterization of the indoor MIMO-OFDM channel subject ot pedestrian movement is reported. The experiment used 4 sending and 4 receiving antennas and 114 sub-carriers at 5.2 GHz. Measurement scenarios varied from zero to ten pedestrians walking randomly between transmitter (tx) and receiver (Rx) arrays. The empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the received fading envelope fits the Ricean distribution with K factors ranging from 7dB to 15 dB, for the 10 pedestrians and vacant scenarios respectively. In general, as the number of pedestrians increase, the CDF slope tends to decrease proportionally. Furthermore, as the number of pedestrians increase, increasing multipath contribution, the dynamic range of channel capacity increases proportionally. These results are consistent with measurement results obtained in controlled scenarios for a fixed narrowband Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) link at 5.2 GHz in previous work. The described empirical characterization provides an insight into the prediction of human-body shadowing effects for indoor MIMO-OFDM channels at 5.2 GHz.

Temporal tissue patterns in bone healing of sheep

Secondary fracture healing in long bones leads to the successive formation of intricate patterns of tissues in the newly formed callus. The main aim of this work was to quantitatively describe the topology of these tissue patterns at different stages of the healing process and to generate averaged images of tissue distribution. This averaging procedure was based on stained histological sections (2, 3, 6, and 9 weeks post-operatively) of 64 sheep with a 3 mm tibial mid-shaft osteotomy, stabilized either with a rigid or a semi-rigid external fixator. Before averaging, histological images were sorted for topology according to six identified tissue patterns. The averaged images were obtained for both fixation types and the lateral and medial side separately. For each case, the result of the averaging procedure was a collection of six images characterizing quantitatively the progression of the healing process. In addition, quantified descriptions of the newly formed cartilage and the bone area fractions (BA/TA) of the bony callus are presented. For all cases, a linear increase in the BA/TA of the bony callus was observed. The slope was greatest in the case of the most rigid stabilization and lowest in the case of the least stiff. This topological description of the progression of bone healing will allow quantitative validation (or falsification) of current mechano-biological theories.

The patella morphology in trochlear dysplasia : a comparative MRI study

BACKGROUND: Trochlear dysplasia is suspected to have a genetic basis and causes recurrent patellar instability due to insufficient anatomical geometry. Numerous studies about trochlear morphology and the optimal surgical treatment have been carried out, but no attention has been paid to the corresponding patellar morphology.----- ----- PURPOSE: The aim of this study was the evaluation of the patellar morphology in normal and trochlear dysplastic knees. ----- ----- STUDY DESIGN: Biometric analysis. ----- ----- METHODS: Twenty two patellae with underlying trochlear dysplasia (study group--SG) were compared with 22 matched knees with normal trochlear shape (control group--CG) on transverse and sagittal MRI slices. We compared transverse diameter, cartilaginous thickness, Wiberg-index and -angle, length and radius of lateral and medial facet, patellar shape and angle, retropatellar length, and type of trochlear dysplasia. For statistical analysis we used the Wilcoxon signed ranks test. ----- ----- RESULTS: The transverse and sagittal diameter, mean length of medial patellar facet, and mean cartilaginous and subchondral Wiberg-index showed statistical differences between the two groups. ----- ----- CONCLUSIONS: Although the insufficient trochlear depth and decreased lateral trochlear slope are responsible for patellofemoral instability, the patella shows morphological changes in trochlear dysplastic knees. Its overall size and the medial facet are smaller. Although the femoral sulcus angle is larger, the Wiberg-angle and -index are equal to the control group. This may indicate that the patellar morphology may not be a result of missing medial patellofemoral pressure in trochlear dysplastic knees, but a decreased medial patellofemoral traction. This seems to be caused by hypotrophic medial patellofemoral restraints in combination with an increased lateral patellar tilt, both resulting in a decreased tension onto the medial patella facet. Whether there is a genetic component to the patellar morphology remains open.

Project governance in Malaysia hillside developments

Hillsides in urban areas around the world are being developed at an accelerating rate, to accommodate population growth and rapid urbanization. Developments at hillside are attractive places to live because of the views, fresh air, exclusivity and the sense of being close to nature. Despite its attractiveness, hillside developments are prone to natural hazards such as landslides that can have environmental, social and economic consequences. To minimise these risks, it is necessary to consider the concerns of all stakeholders during the project review stage. This paper proposes that project governance concept can be used for this purpose by defining the rights, responsibilities and interests of the key stakeholders. It can also provide a framework within which decisions are made in order to minimise risks associated with natural hazards.

An indication that non-informative vision eliminates the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect

This study investigated the Kinaesthetic Fusion Effect (KFE) first described by Craske and Kenny in 1981. The current study did not replicate these findings. Participants did not perceive any reduction in the sagittal separation of a button pressed by the index finger of one arm and a probe touching the other, following repeated exposure to the tactile stimuli present on both unseen arms. This study’s failure to replicate the widely-cited KFE as described by Craske et al. (1984) suggests that it may be contingent on several aspects of visual information, especially the availability of a specific visual reference, the role of instructions regarding gaze direction, and the potential use of a line of sight strategy when referring felt positions to an interposed surface. In addition, a foreshortening effect was found; this may result from a line-of-sight judgment and represent a feature of the reporting method used. The transformed line of sight data were regressed against the participant reported values, resulting in a slope of 1.14 (right arm) and 1.11 (left arm), and r > 0.997 for each. The study also provides additional evidence that mis-perceptions of the mediolateral position of the limbs specifically their separation and consistent with notions of Gestalt grouping, is somewhat labile and can be influenced by active motions causing touch of one limb by the other. Finally, this research will benefit future studies that require participants to report the perceived locations of the unseen limbs.

Characteristics of modal sound radiation of finite cylindrical shells

Characteristics of modal sound radiation of finite cylindrical shells are studied using finite element and boundary element methods in this paper. In the low frequency range, modal radiation efficiencies of finite cylindrical shells are found to asymptotically approach those of the corresponding infinite cylindrical shell when structural trace wavelengths of the cylindrical shells are greater than the acoustic wavelength. Modal radiation efficiencies for each group of modes having the same circumferential modal index decrease as the axial modal index increases. They converge to each other when the axial trace wavelength is much greater than the circumferential trace wavelength. The mechanism leading to lower radiation efficiency of modes with higher circumferential modal index of short cylinders is explained. Similar to those of flat plate panels, change in slope or waviness is observed in modal radiation efficiency curves of modes with higher order axial modal index at medium frequencies. This is attributed to the interference of sound radiated by neighbouring vibrating cells when the distance between nodal lines of a vibrating mode is in the same order or smaller than the acoustic wavelength. Effects of the internal sound field on modal radiation efficiencies of a finite open-end cylinder are discussed.