Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Evaluation of assessment in the context of work-based learning: Qualitative perspectives of new graduates

Aim Evaluation or assessment of competence is an important step to ensure the safety and efficacy of health professionals, including dietitians. Most competency-based assessment studies are focussed on valid and reliable methods of assessment for the preparation of entry-level dietitians, few papers have explored student dietitians’ perceptions of these evaluations. This study aimed to explore the perceptions of recent graduates from accredited nutrition and dietetics training programs in Australia. It also aimed to establish the relevance of competency-based assessment to adequately prepare them for entry-level work roles. Methods A purposive sample of newly-graduated dietitians with a range of assessment experiences and varied employment areas was recruited. A qualitative approach, using in-depth interviews with 13 graduates, with differing assessment experiences was undertaken. Graduates were asked to reflect upon their competency-based assessment experiences whilst a student. Data was thematically analysed by multiple authors. Results Four themes emerged from the data analysis: (i) Transparency and consistency are critical elements of work-based competency assessment. (ii) Students are willing to take greater responsibility in their assessment process. (iii) Work-based competency assessment prepares students for employment. (iv) The relationship between students and their assessors can impact on the student experience and their assessment performance. Conclusions Understanding this unique perspective of students can improve evaluation of future health professionals and assist in designing valid competency-based assessment approaches.

Ergonomic assessment of hospital bed moving using DHM Siemens JACK

While the indirect and direct cost of occupational musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) causes a significant burden on the health system, lower back pain (LBP) is associated with a significant portion of MSD. In Australia, the highest prevalence of MSD exists for health care workers, such as nurses. The digital human model (DHM) Siemens JACK was used to investigate if hospital bed pushing, a simple task and hazard that is commonly associated with LBP, can be simulated and ergonomically assessed in a virtual environment. It was found that while JACK has implemented a range of common physical work assessment methods, the simulation of dynamic bed pushing remains a challenge due to the complex interface between the floor and wheels, which can only be insufficiently modelle

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Impact of coronary tortuosity on coronary pressure: Numerical simulation study

Background: Coronary tortuosity (CT) is a common coronary angiographic finding. Whether CT leads to an apparent reduction in coronary pressure distal to the tortuous segment of the coronary artery is still unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of CT on coronary pressure distribution by numerical simulation. Methods: 21 idealized models were created to investigate the influence of coronary tortuosity angle (CTA) and coronary tortuosity number (CTN) on coronary pressure distribution. A 2D incompressible Newtonian flow was assumed and the computational simulation was performed using finite volume method. CTA of 30°, 60°, 90°, 120° and CTN of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 were discussed under both steady and pulsatile conditions, and the changes of outlet pressure and inlet velocity during the cardiac cycle were considered. Results: Coronary pressure distribution was affected both by CTA and CTN. We found that the pressure drop between the start and the end of the CT segment decreased with CTA, and the length of the CT segment also declined with CTA. An increase in CTN resulted in an increase in the pressure drop. Conclusions: Compared to no-CT, CT can results in more decrease of coronary blood pressure in dependence on the severity of tortuosity and severe CT may cause myocardial ischemia.

Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

Reactions to changes in work control: Implications for self-determined and non-self-determined individuals

We investigate the extent to which individuals’ global motivation (self-determined and non-self-determined types) influences adjustment (anxiety, positive reappraisal) and engagement (intrinsic motivation, task performance) in reaction to changes to the level of work control available during a work simulation. Participants (N = 156) completed 2 trials of an inbox activity under conditions of low or high work control—with the ordering of these levels varied to create an increase, decrease, or no change in work control. In support of the hypotheses, results revealed that for more self-determined individuals, high work control led to the increased use of positive reappraisal. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in positive reappraisal observed for self-determined individuals in the conditions in which work control was high by Trial 2 consequently increased their intrinsic motivation toward the task. For more non-self-determined individuals, high work control (as well as changes in work control) led to elevated anxiety. Follow-up moderated mediation analyses revealed that the increases in anxiety observed for non-self-determined individuals in the high-to-high work control condition consequently reduced their task performance. It is concluded that adjustment to a demanding work task depends on a fit between individuals’ global motivation and the work control available, which has consequences for engagement with demanding work.

Geological control of physiography in Southeast Queensland: A multi-scale analysis using GIS

The study reported here, constitutes a full review of the major geological events that have influenced the morphological development of the southeast Queensland region. Most importantly, it provides evidence that the region’s physiography continues to be geologically ‘active’ and although earthquakes are presently few and of low magnitude, many past events and tectonic regimes continue to be strongly influential over drainage, morphology and topography. Southeast Queensland is typified by highland terrain of metasedimentary and igneous rocks that are parallel and close to younger, lowland coastal terrain. The region is currently situated in a passive margin tectonic setting that is now under compressive stress, although in the past, the region was subject to alternating extensional and compressive regimes. As part of the investigation, the effects of many past geological events upon landscape morphology have been assessed at multiple scales using features such as the location and orientation of drainage channels, topography, faults, fractures, scarps, cleavage, volcanic centres and deposits, and recent earthquake activity. A number of hypotheses for local geological evolution are proposed and discussed. This study has also utilised a geographic information system (GIS) approach that successfully amalgamates the various types and scales of datasets used. A new method of stream ordination has been developed and is used to compare the orientation of channels of similar orders with rock fabric, in a topologically controlled approach that other ordering systems are unable to achieve. Stream pattern analysis has been performed and the results provide evidence that many drainage systems in southeast Queensland are controlled by known geological structures and by past geological events. The results conclude that drainage at a fine scale is controlled by cleavage, joints and faults, and at a broader scale, large river valleys, such as those of the Brisbane River and North Pine River, closely follow the location of faults. These rivers appear to have become entrenched by differential weathering along these planes of weakness. Significantly, stream pattern analysis has also identified some ‘anomalous’ drainage that suggests the orientations of these watercourses are geologically controlled, but by unknown causes. To the north of Brisbane, a ‘coastal drainage divide’ has been recognized and is described here. The divide crosses several lithological units of different age, continues parallel to the coast and prevents drainage from the highlands flowing directly to the coast for its entire length. Diversion of low order streams away from the divide may be evidence that a more recent process may be the driving force. Although there is no conclusive evidence for this at present, it is postulated that the divide may have been generated by uplift or doming associated with mid-Cenozoic volcanism or a blind thrust at depth. Also north of Brisbane, on the D’Aguilar Range, an elevated valley (the ‘Kilcoy Gap’) has been identified that may have once drained towards the coast and now displays reversed drainage that may have resulted from uplift along the coastal drainage divide and of the D’Aguilar blocks. An assessment of the distribution and intensity of recent earthquakes in the region indicates that activity may be associated with ancient faults. However, recent movement on these faults during these events would have been unlikely, given that earthquakes in the region are characteristically of low magnitude. There is, however, evidence that compressive stress is building and being released periodically and ancient faults may be a likely place for this stress to be released. The relationship between ancient fault systems and the Tweed Shield Volcano has also been discussed and it is suggested here that the volcanic activity was associated with renewed faulting on the Great Moreton Fault System during the Cenozoic. The geomorphology and drainage patterns of southeast Queensland have been compared with expected morphological characteristics found at passive and other tectonic settings, both in Australia and globally. Of note are the comparisons with the East Brazilian Highlands, the Gulf of Mexico and the Blue Ridge Escarpment, for example. In conclusion, the results of the study clearly show that, although the region is described as a passive margin, its complex, past geological history and present compressive stress regime provide a more intricate and varied landscape than would be expected along typical passive continental margins. The literature review provides background to the subject and discusses previous work and methods, whilst the findings are presented in three peer-reviewed, published papers. The methods, hypotheses, suggestions and evidence are discussed at length in the final chapter.

New graduate occupational therapists feelings of preparedness for practice in Australia and Aotearoa/New Zealand

Aim The development of competent future allied health professionals through academic programmes, professional support and practical education is continually evolving. The aim of this study was to explore the feelings of newly graduated occupational therapists in Australia and Aotearoa/New Zealand regarding their education and work preparedness. Methods Newly graduated occupational therapists from Australia (n = 178) and Aotearoa/New Zealand (n = 53) who had completed their occupational therapy studies in 2007 were recruited. Participants completed an online survey which explored their preparedness for work; based on professional competencies. Results Most newly graduated occupational therapists felt somewhat prepared for practice. However, only 17.1% of Australian new graduates, and even fewer (8.5%) of Aotearoa/New Zealand new graduates felt very well prepared. Participants felt more prepared for the competencies required for ‘managing inwards’ (including interpersonal skills) and less prepared for those required for ‘managing outwards’ (including evidence-based practice). Conclusions This study provides the first international comparison into the feelings of competence and preparedness for practice of new graduates of occupational therapy from Australia and Aotearoa/New Zealand. Given the importance of competencies, such as evidence-based practice to the progress of the profession, there is a need to further explore methods to increase feelings of preparedness in these areas.

The Levels of Job Satisfaction, Stress and Burnout In Australian and New Zealand Haemodialysis Nurses

Background: Job dissatisfaction, stress and burnout is linked to high rates of nurses leaving the profession, poor morale, poor patient outcomes and increased financial expenditure. Haemodialysis nurses find their work satisfying although it can be stressful. Little is known, however, about job satisfaction, stress or burnout levels of haemodialysis nurses in Australia and New Zealand. Aims: To assess the current levels of job satisfaction, stress, burnout and nurses’ perception of the haemodialysis work environment. Methods: An observational study involved a cross-sectional sample of 417 registered or enrolled nurses working in Australian or New Zealand haemodialysis units. Data was collected using an on-line questionnaire containing demographic and work characteristics as well as validated measures of job satisfaction, stress, burnout and the work environment Results: 74% of respondents were aged over 40 and 75% had more than six years of haemodialysis nursing experience. Job satisfaction levels were comparable to studies in other practice areas with higher satisfaction derived from professional status and interactions with colleagues. Despite nurses viewing their work environment favourably, moderate levels of burnout were noted with frequent stressors related to workload and patient death and dying. Interestingly there were no differences found between the type or location of dialysis unit. Conclusion: Despite acceptable levels of job satisfaction and burnout, stress with workloads and facets of patient care were found. Understanding the factors that contribute to job satisfaction, stress and burnout can impact the healthcare system through decreased costs by retaining valued staff and through improved patient care.

Investigation of the effects of various types of wind turbine generators on power-system stability

It has become more and more demanding to investigate the impacts of wind farms on power system operation as ever-increasing penetration levels of wind power have the potential to bring about a series of dynamic stability problems for power systems. This paper undertakes such an investigation through investigating the small signal and transient stabilities of power systems that are separately integrated with three types of wind turbine generators (WTGs), namely the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG), the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), and the permanent magnet generator (PMG). To examine the effects of these WTGs on a power system with regard to its stability under different operating conditions, a selected synchronous generator (SG) of the well-known Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC three-unit nine-bus system and an eight-unit 24-bus system is replaced in turn by each type of WTG with the same capacity. The performances of the power system in response to the disturbances are then systematically compared. Specifically, the following comparisons are undertaken: (1) performances of the power system before and after the integration of the WTGs; and (2) performances of the power system and the associated consequences when the SCIG, DFIG, or PMG are separately connected to the system. These stability case studies utilize both eigenvalue analysis and dynamic time-domain simulation methods.

Formation of the three-dimensional geometry of the red blood cell membrane

Red blood cells (RBCs) are nonnucleated liquid capsules, enclosed in deformable viscoelastic membranes with complex three dimensional geometrical structures. Generally, RBC membranes are highly incompressible and resistant to areal changes. However, RBC membranes show a planar shear deformation and out of plane bending deformation. The behaviour of RBCs in blood vessels is investigated using numerical models. All the characteristics of RBC membranes should be addressed to develop a more accurate and stable model. This article presents an effective methodology to model the three dimensional geometry of the RBC membrane with the aid of commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics 4.2a and Fortran programming. Initially, a mesh is generated for a sphere using the COMSOL Multiphysics software to represent the RBC membrane. The elastic energy of the membrane is considered to determine a stable membrane shape. Then, the actual biconcave shape of the membrane is obtained based on the principle of virtual work, when the total energy is minimised. The geometry of the RBC membrane could be used with meshfree particle methods to simulate motion and deformation of RBCs in micro-capillaries

Inside the ‘Hurt Locker’: The combined effects of explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing on physiological tolerance time in extreme environments

Background Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are often required to wear specialised clothing combinations that not only protect against the risk of explosion but also potential chemical contamination. This heavy (>35kg) and encapsulating ensemble is likely to increase physiological strain by increasing metabolic heat production and impairing heat dissipation. This study investigated the physiological tolerance times of two different chemical protective undergarments, commonly worn with EOD personal protective clothing, in a range of simulated environmental extremes and work intensities Methods Seven males performed eighteen trials wearing two ensembles. The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km.h-1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to volitional fatigue. Results Physiological tolerance times ranged from 8 to 60 min and the duration (mean difference: 2.78 min, P>0.05) were similar in both ensembles. A significant effect for environment (21>30>37°C WBGT, P<0.05) and work intensity (2.5>4>5.5 km.h-1, P< 0.05) was observed in tolerance time. The majority of trials across both ensembles (101/126; 80.1%) were terminated due to participants achieving a heart rate equivalent to greater than 90% of their maximum. Conclusions Physiological tolerance times wearing these two chemical protective undergarments, worn underneath EOD personal protective clothing, were similar and predominantly limited by cardiovascular strain.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Trans-scale granular modelling of cytoskeleton: A mini-review

Living cells are the functional unit of organs that controls reactions to their exterior. However, the mechanics of living cells can be difficult to characterize due to the crypticity of their microscale structures and associated dynamic cellular processes. Fortunately, multiscale modelling provides a powerful simulation tool that can be used to study the mechanical properties of these soft hierarchical, biological systems. This paper reviews recent developments in hierarchical multiscale modeling technique that aimed at understanding cytoskeleton mechanics. Discussions are expanded with respects to cytoskeletal components including: intermediate filaments, microtubules and microfilament networks. The mechanical performance of difference cytoskeleton components are discussed with respect to their structural and material properties. Explicit granular simulation methods are adopted with different coarse-grained strategies for these cytoskeleton components and the simulation details are introduced in this review.