Environment, political economies and livelihood change

Between the national and household factors, community or “meso-level” changes in political economy and livelihoods in southwestern Bangladesh illustrate that in order to understand the impacts on people and nations of climate change-related environmental changes – changes that are expected to include rising sea level, saline inundation, and increased likelihood and intensity of cyclones in Bangladesh – we need to understand the dynamics of the built and natural environment and the political economies these sustain. Meso-level political economies affect the sources of income and livelihood available in distressed environmental conditions, and therefore influence how well the people in them can adapt to changing environmental conditions. In this study we have seen the underlying political economies whose dynamics, and not slow onset environmental changes or disastrous environmental events, are pushing Bangladeshis to incorporate migration strategies into their livelihood strategies.

Large variations in the Holocene marine radiocarbon reservoir effect reflect ocean circulation and climatic changes

Accurate radiocarbon dating of marine samples requires knowledge of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect. This effect for a particular site/region is generally assumed constant through time when calibrating marine 14C ages. However, recent studies have shown large temporal variations of several hundred to a couple of thousand years in this effect for a number of regions during the late Quaternary and Holocene. Here we report marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔRΔR) for Heron Reef and Moreton Bay in southwestern (SW) Pacific for the last 8 ka derived from 14C analysis of 230Th-dated corals. Most of our ΔRΔR for the last ∼5.4 ka agree well with their modern value, but large ΔRΔR variability of ∼410 yr (from trough to peak) with possible decadal/centennial fluctuations is evident for the period ∼5.4–8 ka. The latter time interval also has significant variations with similar features in previously published ΔRΔR values for other sites in the Pacific, including southern Peru–northern Chile in southeastern (SE) Pacific, the South China Sea, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea, with the largest magnitude of ∼920 yr from SE Pacific. The mechanisms for these large ΔRΔR variations across the Pacific during the mid-Holocene are complex processes involving (1) changes in the quantity and 14C content of upwelled waters in tropical east Pacific (TEP) (frequency and intensity of ocean upwelling in the TEP, and contribution of Subantarctic Mode Water to the upwelled waters, which is influenced by the intensity and position of southern westerly winds), and (2) variations in ocean circulation associated with climate change (La Niña/El Niño conditions, intensity of easterly trade winds, positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Convergence Zone), which control the spreading of the older upwelled surface waters in the TEP to the western sites. Our results imply the need for employing temporal changes in ΔRΔR values, instead of constant (modern) values, for age calibration of Holocene marine samples not only for the SW Pacific sites but also for other tropical and subtropical sites in the Pacific.

Mentors and modelling primary science teaching practices

Introduction There are concerns about the science performance of Australian primary school students (Good rum, Hackling & Rennie, 2001), which requires a “major set of initiatives that focus on teacher beliefs and practices in the teaching and learning of science” (Sharpley, Tytler & Conley, 2000, p. 1). The science education community is calling for a “new approach” to science education in American schools, with an approach where a “mentor models, then coaches, then scaffolds, and then gradually fades scaffolding” (Barab & Hay, 2001, pp. 74, 90). The mentor, as modeller of practice, appears to be a key factor for enhancing science teaching, which may assist towards implementing science education reform

Mentoring preservice teachers of primary science

Perceptions of mentors' practices related to primary science teaching were obtained from final year preservice teachers after a 4-week practicum. Responses to a survey (n=59), constructed through literature-based practices and attributes of effective mentors, identified perceived strengths and weaknesses in the area of mentoring preservice teachers of primary science. Through exploratory factor analysis, this pilot study also tested the unidimensionality of mentoring practices and attributes assigned to categories (factors) that may characterise mentoring in primary science teaching. These suggested factors, namely, personal attributes, system requirements, pedagogical knowledge, modelling, and feedback had Cronbach alpha coefficients of internal consistency reliability of 0.93, 0.78, 0.94, 0.90, and 0.81 respectively. Survey responses indicated that mentors generally do not provide specific mentoring in primary science teaching. It is argued that science education reform requires the identification of factors and associated attributes and practices of mentoring primary science in order to effectively develop preservice teachers in primary science teaching.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.