Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intra-host populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances

Et tu, George? Campaign journalism and the politics of compromise

There is a category of film about journalism in which journalism is not the star, but the supporting player, and journalists not the protagonists but the Greek chorus, commenting on and also changing the realities they report. In such films the news media are a structuring presence driving the plot, shaping the narrative, constructing what we might think of as a pseudo-reality. Like Daniel Boorstin’s notion of the pseudo-event (introduced in his still-relevant book The Image, 1962), this pseudo-reality is so-named because it would not exist were it not for the demands of the news media’s hunger for stories, and knowledge of the damage they can do with those stories, on the calculations and actions of the key actors. Pseudo-realities form as responses to what political actors think journalists and their organisations need and want, or as efforts to shape journalistic accounts in ways favourable to themselves. Films about politics often feature pseudorealities of this kind, in which the events and actions driving the plot have only a tenuous relationship with important things going on in the everyday world beyond the political arena. Everything we see is about image, perception, appearance.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

An afternoon with Chopin and George Sand

An original edutainment piece written by Caroline Heim and Christian Heim. Frederic Chopin and George Sands' turbulent and fraught relationship is dramatised through Chopin's music and Sand's writings.

Metal ion levels post unilateral primary Exeter total hip replacement

There has been much discussion and controversy in the media recently regarding metal toxicity following large head metal on metal (MoM) total hip replacement (THR). Patients have been reported as having hugely elevated levels of metal ions with, at times, devastating systemic, neurolgical and/or orthopaedic sequelae. However, no direct correlation between metal ion level and severity of metallosis has yet been defined. Normative levels of metal ions in well functioning, non Cobalt-Chrome hips have also not been defined to date. The Exeter total hip replacement contains no Cobalt-Chrome (Co-Cr) as it is made entirely from stainless steel. However, small levels of these metals may be present in the modular head of the prosthesis, and their effect on metal ion levels in the well functioning patient has not been investigated. We proposed to define the “normal” levels of metal ions detected by blood test in 20 well functioning patients at a minimum 1 year post primary Exeter total hip replacement, where the patient had had only one joint replaced. Presently, accepted normal levels of blood Chromium are 10–100 nmol/L and plasma Cobalt are 0–20 nmol/L. The UK Modern Humanities Research Association (MHRA) has suggested that levels of either Cobalt or Chromium above 7 ppb (equivalent to 135 nmol/L for Chromium and 120 nmol/L for Cobalt) may be significant. Below this level it is indicated that significant soft tissue reaction and tissue damage is less likely and the risk of implant failure is reduced. Hips were a mixture of cemented and hybrid procedures performed by two experienced orthopaedic consultants. Seventy percent were female, with a mixture of head sizes used. In our cohort, there were no cases where the blood Chromium levels were above the normal range, and in more than 70% of cases, levels were below recordable levels. There were also no cases of elevated plasma Cobalt levels, and in 35% of cases, levels were negligible. We conclude that the implantation with an Exeter total hip replacement does not lead to elevation of blood metal ion levels.

Ross River virus evolution : implications for vaccine development

Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes approximately 5000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia each year and has direct medical-associated costs of approximately US$15 million annually. While mosquito control programs are able, at best, to contain rather than prevent this disease, natural infection with Ross River virus confers lifelong protection against subsequent clinical infection. A killed-virus vaccine has been developed, which is in Phase III clinical trials. Analyses of intra-host genetic diversity and of long-term evolutionary changes in Ross River virus populations suggest that antigenic variation is unlikely to pose a threat to the efficacy of this vaccine.

Ross River virus arthritis

“Epidemics” of a benign disease causing polyarthralgia and rash were first described in Australia in 1927.63 Following the recovery of the causative agent and the advent of serologic tests able to diagnose Ross River virus infection, epidemic polyarthritis has been recognized as endemic in Australia and has occurred as epidemics in numerous Pacific nations. Approximately 4000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis are reported in Australia each year, with a peak of 7800 cases in 1996. Some confusion has been generated recently by use of the term Ross River fever to describe clinical Ross River virus infections because fever does not develop in more than half of those with clinical disease.59 Additional confusion has been generated by efforts to describe any polyarthritis caused by an Australian arbovirus as epidemic polyarthritis. The term epidemic polyarthritis should be used to describe only clinical disease caused by Ross River virus.

The national railway of Sarah Island : Richard Flanagan's Gould's Book of Fish

In the latter half of the nineteenth century the railway became an emblem of technological advancement, stood for the improvement and progression of European life, and became a recognizable symbol for the achievements of governments and citizens. The implementation and use of the railway became closely linked with notions of national identity and character. The railway became an identifiable artefact in official history but at the same time it became a part of everyday life. Richard Flanagan’s Gould’s Book of Fish retells the life-story of a fictionalized convict sent to Sarah Island and who paints fish, eventually he metamorphoses into one. It could be thought that a novel set in convict times would have little to do with notions of national identity, technological advancement, and railway travel. However, Richard Flanagan, in this very complex, almost surreal, novel, has used the construction of a fictional national railway as one of the ways to explore Australia's complex relationship with history and space. The novel tells of the plans of a history-loving Commandant and his desire to build a national railway on Sarah Island. This paper explores how Sarah Island becomes a metonym for Australia as a whole and Flanagan's novel takes on a metaphysical dimension as he reveals the struggles that emerge when official history collides with non-official versions. The fabulations of the novel contribute to an historical reconstruction of the spatial/architectural history of the Tasmanian colonial project.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

The influence of families on early adolescent school connectedness : evidence that this association varies with adolescent involvement in peer drinking networks

School connectedness is central to the long term well-being of adolescents, and high quality parent-child relationships facilitate school connectedness. This study examined the extent to which family relationship quality is associated with the school connectedness of pre- and early teenagers, and how this association varies with adolescent involvement in peer drinking networks. The sample consisted of 7,372 10-14 year olds recruited from 231 schools in 30 Australian communities. Participants completed the Communities that Care youth survey. A multi-level model of school connectedness was used, with a random term for school-level variation. Key independent variables included family relationship quality, peer drinking networks, and school grade. Control variables included child gender, sensation seeking, depression, child alcohol use, parent education, and language spoken at home. For grade 6 students, the association of family relationship quality and school connectedness was lower when peer drinking networks were present, and this effect was nonsignificant for older (grade 8) students. Post hoc analyses indicated that the effect for family relationship quality on school connectedness was nonsignificant when adolescents in grade 6 reported that the majority of friends consumed alcohol. The results point to the importance of familyschool partnerships in early intervention and prevention.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.