Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Leptospirosis from water sources

Leptospirosis outbreaks have been associated with many common water events including water consumption, water sports, environmental disasters and occupational exposure. The ability of leptospires to survive in moist environments makes them a high risk agent for infection following contact with any contaminated water source. Water treatment processes reduce the likelihood of leptospirosis or other microbial agents causing infection provided they do not malfunction and the distribution networks are maintained. Notably, there are many differences in water treatment systems around the world, particularly between developing and developed countries. Detection of leptospirosis in water samples is uncommonly performed by molecular methods.

Restraint in the age of speed: Protecting vulnerable news sources in the 24/7 global news cycle

As news communication speeds up, investigative journalists have an increasing responsibility to minimise the risk of harm to vulnerable news sources. In addition, the increased longevity and instant global search-ability of news coverage and investigative journalism outputs such as documentaries, places upon journalists an increased responsibility for accuracy since online coverage cannot be easily corrected or retracted. This paper will examine how the risks to a news source and her family were considered and mitigated during the production of a radio documentary and newspaper story about an intended victim of child sacrifice. Pre-publication considerations included the possible risks to the mental health of the news source, the potential physical risk to her children and the risk to future family relationships. To hear the ABC Radio National documentary, A living sacrifice, on 360 Documentaries prior to the conference, see http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/360/a-living-sacrifice/5359744. To read the Sunday Mail newspaper coverage of the story see http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/susannah-birch-talks-about-her-throat-being-slit-by-her-mother-when-she-was-a-baby/story-fnihsrf2-1226881911465.

Volatile organic compounds: Characteristics, distribution and sources in urban schools

Long term exposure to organic pollutants, both inside and outside school buildings may affect children’s health and influence their learning performance. Since children spend significant amount of time in school, air quality, especially in classrooms plays a key role in determining the health risks associated with exposure at schools. Within this context, the present study investigated the ambient concentrations of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in 25 primary schools in Brisbane with the aim to quantify the indoor and outdoor VOCs concentrations, identify VOCs sources and their contribution, and based on these; propose mitigation measures to reduce VOCs exposure in schools. One of the most important findings is the occurrence of indoor sources, indicated by the I/O ratio >1 in 19 schools. Principal Component Analysis with Varimax rotation was used to identify common sources of VOCs and source contribution was calculated using an Absolute Principal Component Scores technique. The result showed that outdoor 47% of VOCs were contributed by petrol vehicle exhaust but the overall cleaning products had the highest contribution of 41% indoors followed by air fresheners and art and craft activities. These findings point to the need for a range of basic precautions during the selection, use and storage of cleaning products and materials to reduce the risk from these sources.

Indoor air: Contemporary sources, exposures and global implications

Recent 'Global Burden of Disease' studies have provided quantitative evidence of the significant role air pollution plays as a human health risk factor (Lim et al., The Lancet, 380: 2224–2260, 2012). Tobacco smoke, including second hand smoke, household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient particulate matter are among the top risks, leading to lower life expectancy around the world. Indoor air constitutes an environment particularly rich in different types of pollutants, originating from indoor sources, as well as penetrating from outdoors, mixing, interacting or growing (when considering microbes) under the protective enclosure of the building envelope. Therefore, it is not a simple task to follow the dynamics of the processes occurring there, or to quantify the outcomes of the processes in terms of pollutant concentrations and other characteristics. This is further complicated by limitations such as building access for the purpose of air quality monitoring, or the instrumentation which can be used indoors, because of their possible interference with the occupants comfort (due to their large size, noise generated or amount of air drawn). European studies apportioned contributions of indoor versus outdoor sources of indoor air contaminants in 26 European countries and quantified IAQ associated DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) in those countries (Jantunen et al., Promoting actions for healthy indoor air (IAIAQ), European Commission Directorate General for Health and Consumers, Luxembourg, 2011). At the same time, there has been an increase in research efforts around the world to better understand the sources, composition, dynamics and impacts of indoor air pollution. Particular focus has been directed towards the contemporary sources, novel pollutants and new detection methods. The importance of exposure assessment and personal exposure, the majority of which occurs in various indoor micro¬environments, has also been realized. Overall, this emerging knowledge has been providing input for global assessments of indoor environments, the impact of indoor pollutants and their science based management and control. It was a major outcome of recent international conferences that interdisciplinarity and especially a better colla¬boration between exposure and indoor sciences would be of high benefit for the health related evaluation of environmental stress factors and pollutants. A very good example is the combination of biomonitoring and indoor air, particle and dust analysis to study the exposure routes of semi volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). We have adopted the idea of combining the forces of exposure and indoor sciences for this Special Issue, identified new and challenging topics and have attracted colleagues who are top researchers in their field to provide their inputs. The Special Issue includes papers, which collectively present advances in current research topics and in our view, build the bridge between indoor and exposure sciences.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Identification of IL6R and chromosome 11q13.5 as risk loci for asthma

We aimed to identify novel genetic variants affecting asthma risk, since these might provide novel insights into molecular mechanisms underlying the disease. We did a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2669 physician-diagnosed asthmatics and 4528 controls from Australia. Seven loci were prioritised for replication after combining our results with those from the GABRIEL consortium (n=26 475), and these were tested in an additional 25 358 independent samples from four in-silico cohorts. Quantitative multi-marker scores of genetic load were constructed on the basis of results from the GABRIEL study and tested for association with asthma in our Australian GWAS dataset. Two loci were confirmed to associate with asthma risk in the replication cohorts and reached genome-wide significance in the combined analysis of all available studies (n=57 800): rs4129267 (OR 1·09, combined p= 2·4×10-8) in the interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) gene and rs7130588 (OR 1·09, p=1·8×10-8) on chromosome 11q13.5 near the leucine-rich repeat containing 32 gene (LRRC32, also known as GARP). The 11q13.5 locus was significantly associated with atopic status among asthmatics (OR 1·33, p=7×10-4), suggesting that it is a risk factor for allergic but not non-allergic asthma. Multi-marker association results are consistent with a highly polygenic contribution to asthma risk, including loci with weak effects that might be shared with other immune-related diseases, such as NDFIP1, HLA-B, LPP, and BACH2. The IL6R association further supports the hypothesis that cytokine signalling dysregulation affects asthma risk, and raises the possibility that an IL6R antagonist (tocilizumab) may be effective to treat the disease, perhaps in a genotype-dependent manner. Results for the 11q13.5 locus suggest that it directly increases the risk of allergic sensitisation which, in turn, increases the risk of subsequent development of asthma. Larger or more functionally focused studies are needed to characterise the many loci with modest effects that remain to be identified for asthma. National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. A full list of funding sources is provided in the webappendix. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms

In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on chil¬dren’s health. Within this context, through the application of a Maximum Cumulative Ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the Hazard Index. Maximum cumulative ratio and Hazard Index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore, appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92% of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the ‘low concern’ group and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus, aides in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.