Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

A flexible Bayesian model for describing temporal variability of N2O emissions from an Australian pasture

Soil-based emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a well-known greenhouse gas, have been associated with changes in soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature in many previous studies. However, it is acknowledged that the environment-N2O relationship is complex and still relatively poorly unknown. In this article, we employed a Bayesian model selection approach (Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo) to develop a data-informed model of the relationship between daily N2O emissions and daily WFPS and soil temperature measurements between March 2007 and February 2009 from a soil under pasture in Queensland, Australia, taking seasonal factors and time-lagged effects into account. The model indicates a very strong relationship between a hybrid seasonal structure and daily N2O emission, with the latter substantially increased in summer. Given the other variables in the model, daily soil WFPS, lagged by a week, had a negative influence on daily N2O; there was evidence of a nonlinear positive relationship between daily soil WFPS and daily N2O emission; and daily soil temperature tended to have a linear positive relationship with daily N2O emission when daily soil temperature was above a threshold of approximately 19°C. We suggest that this flexible Bayesian modeling approach could facilitate greater understanding of the shape of the covariate-N2O flux relation and detection of effect thresholds in the natural temporal variation of environmental variables on N2O emission.

Optimal camera planning under versatile user constraints in multi-camera image processing systems

The selection of optimal camera configurations (camera locations, orientations, etc.) for multi-camera networks remains an unsolved problem. Previous approaches largely focus on proposing various objective functions to achieve different tasks. Most of them, however, do not generalize well to large scale networks. To tackle this, we propose a statistical framework of the problem as well as propose a trans-dimensional simulated annealing algorithm to effectively deal with it. We compare our approach with a state-of-the-art method based on binary integer programming (BIP) and show that our approach offers similar performance on small scale problems. However, we also demonstrate the capability of our approach in dealing with large scale problems and show that our approach produces better results than two alternative heuristics designed to deal with the scalability issue of BIP. Last, we show the versatility of our approach using a number of specific scenarios.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Multi-modal deformable medical image registration

Non-rigid image registration is an essential tool required for overcoming the inherent local anatomical variations that exist between images acquired from different individuals or atlases. Furthermore, certain applications require this type of registration to operate across images acquired from different imaging modalities. One popular local approach for estimating this registration is a block matching procedure utilising the mutual information criterion. However, previous block matching procedures generate a sparse deformation field containing displacement estimates at uniformly spaced locations. This neglects to make use of the evidence that block matching results are dependent on the amount of local information content. This paper presents a solution to this drawback by proposing the use of a Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo statistical procedure to optimally select grid points of interest. Three different methods are then compared to propagate the estimated sparse deformation field to the entire image including a thin-plate spline warp, Gaussian convolution, and a hybrid fluid technique. Results show that non-rigid registration can be improved by using the proposed algorithm to optimally select grid points of interest.

Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

Anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide with picric acid and 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid: 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2,4,6-trinitrophenolate and two polymorphs of 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2-carboxy-4,6-dinitrophenolate

The structures of the anhydrous 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of isonipecotamide (4-carbamoylpiperidine) with picric acid and 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid, namely 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2,4,6-trinitrophenolate, C6H13N2O8+ C6H2N3O7- (I) and 4-carbamoylpiperidinium 2-carboxy-4,6-dinitrophenolate, C6H13N2O8+ C7H3N2O7-: two forms, the monoclinic alpha-polymorph (II) and the triclinic beta-polymorph (III) have been determined at 200 K. All compounds form hydrogen-bonded structures, one-dimensional in (II), two-dimensional in (I) and three-dimensional in (III). In (I), the cations form centrosymmetric cyclic head-to-tail hydrogen-bonded homodimers [graph set R2/2(14)] through lateral duplex piperidinium N---H...O(amide) interactions. These dimers are extended into a two-dimensional network structure through further interactions with anion phenolate-O and nitro-O acceptors, including a direct symmetric piperidinium N-H...O(phenol),O(nitro) cation--anion association [graph set R2/1(6)]. The monoclinic polymorph (II) has a similar R2/1(6) cation-anion hydrogen-bonding interaction to (I) but with an additional conjoint symmetrical R1/2(4) interaction as well as head-to-tail piperidinium N-H...O(amide) O hydrogen bonds and amide N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds, give a network structure which include large R3/4(20) rings. The hydrogen bonding in the triclinic polymorph (III) is markedly different from that of monoclinic (II). The asymmetric unit contains two independent cation-anion pairs which associate through cyclic piperidinium N-H...O,O'(carboxyl) interactions [graph set R2/1(4)]. The cations also show the zig-zag head-to-tail piperidinium N-H...O(amide) hydrogen-bonded chain substructures found in (II) but in addition feature amide N-H...O(nitro) and O(phenolate) and amide N-H...O(nitro) associations. As well there is a centrosymmetric double-amide N-H...O(carboxyl) bridged bis(cation-anion) ring system [graph set R2/4(8)] in the three-dimensional framework. The structures reported here demonstrate the utility of the isonipecotamide cation as a synthon with previously unrecognized potential for structure assembly applications. Furthermore, the structures of the two polymorphic 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid salts show an unusual dissimilarity in hydrogen-bonding characteristics, considering that both were obtained from identical solvent systems.

Increased charge transfer of Poly (ethylene oxide) based electrolyte by addition of small molecule and its application in dye-sensitized solar cells

A Poly (ethylene oxide) based polymer electrolyte impregnated with 2-Mercapto benzimidazole was comprehensively characterized by XRD, UV–visible spectroscopy, FTIR as well as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. It was found that the crystallization of PEO was dramatically reduced and the ionic conductivity of the electrolyte was increased 4.5 fold by addition of 2-Mercapto benzimidazole. UV–visible and FTIR spectroscopes indicated the formation of charge transfer complex between 2-Mercapto benzimidazole and iodine of the electrolyte. Dye-sensitized solar cells with the polymer electrolytes were assembled. It was found that both the photocurrent density and photovoltage were enhanced with respect to the DSC without 2-Mercapto benzimidazole, leading to a 60% increase of the performance of the cell.

Formation and Fragmentation of Unsaturated Fatty Acid M-2H+Na (-) Ions: Stabilized Carbanions for Charge-Directed Fragmentation

Fatty acids are long-chain carboxylic acids that readily produce \[M - H](-) ions upon negative ion electrospray ionization (ESI) and cationic complexes with alkali, alkaline earth, and transition metals in positive ion ESI. In contrast, only one anionic monomeric fatty acid-metal ion complex has been reported in the literature, namely \[M - 2H + (FeCl)-Cl-II](-). In this manuscript, we present two methods to form anionic unsaturated fatty acid-sodium ion complexes (i.e., \[M - 2H + Na](-)). We find that these ions may be generated efficiently by two distinct methods: (1) negative ion ESI of a methanolic solution containing the fatty acid and sodium fluoride forming an \[M - H + NaF](-) ion. Subsequent collision-induced dissociation (CID) results in the desired \[M - 2H + Na](-) ion via the neutral loss of HF. (2) Direct formation of the \[M - 2H + Na](-) ion by negative ion ESI of a methanolic solution containing the fatty acid and sodium hydroxide or bicarbonate. In addition to deprotonation of the carboxylic acid moiety, formation of \[M - 2H + Na](-) ions requires the removal of a proton from the fatty acid acyl chain. We propose that this deprotonation occurs at the bis-allylic position(s) of polyunsaturated fatty acids resulting in the formation of a resonance-stabilized carbanion. This proposal is supported by ab initio calculations, which reveal that removal of a proton from the bis-allylic position, followed by neutral loss of HX (where X = F- and -OH), is the lowest energy dissociation pathway.

Ultrafast and reversible multiblock formation by the SET-Nitroxide radical coupling reaction

The single electron transfer-nitroxide radical coupling (SET-NRC) reaction has been used to produce multiblock polymers with high molecular weights in under 3 min at 50◦C by coupling a difunctional telechelic polystyrene (Br-PSTY-Br)with a dinitroxide. The well known combination of dimethyl sulfoxide as solvent and Me6TREN as ligand facilitated the in situ disproportionation of CuIBr to the highly active nascent Cu0 species. This SET reaction allowed polymeric radicals to be rapidly formed from their corresponding halide end-groups. Trapping of these carbon-centred radicals at close to diffusion controlled rates by dinitroxides resulted in high-molecular-weight multiblock polymers. Our results showed that the disproportionation of CuI was critical in obtaining these ultrafast reactions, and confirmed that activation was primarily through Cu0. We took advantage of the reversibility of the NRC reaction at elevated temperatures to decouple the multiblock back to the original PSTY building block through capping the chain-ends with mono-functional nitroxides. These alkoxyamine end-groups were further exchanged with an alkyne mono-functional nitroxide (TEMPO–≡) and ‘clicked’ by a CuI-catalyzed azide/alkyne cycloaddition (CuAAC) reaction with N3–PSTY–N3 to reform the multiblocks. This final ‘click’ reaction, even after the consecutive decoupling and nitroxide-exchange reactions, still produced high molecular-weight multiblocks efficiently. These SET-NRC reactions would have ideal applications in re-usable plastics and possibly as self-healing materials.

The effects of habitat fragmentation on the demography and population genetic structure of Uromys Caudimaculatus

Habitat fragmentation can have an impact on a wide variety of biological processes including abundance, life history strategies, mating system, inbreeding and genetic diversity levels of individual species. Although fragmented populations have received much attention, ecological and genetic responses of species to fragmentation have still not been fully resolved. The current study investigated the ecological factors that may influence the demographic and genetic structure of the giant white-tailed rat (Uromys caudimaculatus) within fragmented tropical rainforests. It is the first study to examine relationships between food resources, vegetation attributes and Uromys demography in a quantitative manner. Giant white-tailed rat densities were strongly correlated with specific suites of food resources rather than forest structure or other factors linked to fragmentation (i.e. fragment size). Several demographic parameters including the density of resident adults and juvenile recruitment showed similar patterns. Although data were limited, high quality food resources appear to initiate breeding in female Uromys. Where data were sufficient, influx of juveniles was significantly related to the density of high quality food resources that had fallen in the previous three months. Thus, availability of high quality food resources appear to be more important than either vegetation structure or fragment size in influencing giant white-tailed rat demography. These results support the suggestion that a species’ response to fragmentation can be related to their specific habitat requirements and can vary in response to local ecological conditions. In contrast to demographic data, genetic data revealed a significant negative effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and effective population size in U. caudimaculatus. All three fragments showed lower levels of allelic richness, number of private alleles and expected heterozygosity compared with the unfragmented continuous rainforest site. Populations at all sites were significantly differentiated, suggesting restricted among population gene flow. The combined effects of reduced genetic diversity, lower effective population size and restricted gene flow suggest that long-term viability of small fragmented populations may be at risk, unless effective management is employed in the future. A diverse range of genetic reproductive behaviours and sex-biased dispersal patterns were evident within U. caudimaculatus populations. Genetic paternity analyses revealed that the major mating system in U. caudimaculatus appeared to be polygyny at sites P1, P3 and C1. Evidence of genetic monogamy, however, was also found in the three fragmented sites, and was the dominant mating system in the remaining low density, small fragment (P2). High variability in reproductive skew and reproductive success was also found but was less pronounced when only resident Uromys were considered. Male body condition predicted which males sired offspring, however, neither body condition nor heterozygosity levels were accurate predictors of the number of offspring assigned to individual males or females. Genetic spatial autocorrelation analyses provided evidence for increased philopatry among females at site P1, but increased philopatry among males at site P3. This suggests that male-biased dispersal occurs at site P1 and female-biased dispersal at site P3, implying that in addition to mating systems, Uromys may also be able to adjust their dispersal behaviour to suit local ecological conditions. This study highlights the importance of examining the mechanisms that underlie population-level responses to habitat fragmentation using a combined ecological and genetic approach. The ecological data suggested that habitat quality (i.e. high quality food resources) rather than habitat quantity (i.e. fragment size) was relatively more important in influencing giant white-tailed rat demographics, at least for the populations studied here . Conversely, genetic data showed strong evidence that Uromys populations were affected adversely by habitat fragmentation and that management of isolated populations may be required for long-term viability of populations within isolated rainforest fragments.

Unusual hydrate stabilization in the two-dimensional layered structure of quinacrinium bis(2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate) tetrahydrate, a proton-transfer compound of the drug quinacrine

The crystal structure of the hydrated proton-transfer compound of the drug quinacrine [rac-N'-(6-chloro-2-methoxyacridin-9-yl)-N,N-diethylpentane-1,4-diamine] with 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid, C23H32ClN3O2+ . 2(C8H3Cl2O4-).4H2O (I), has been determined at 200 K. The four labile water molecules of solvation form discrete ...O--H...O--H... hydrogen-bonded chains parallel to the quinacrine side chain, the two N--H groups of which act as hydrogen-bond donors for two of the water acceptor molecules. The other water molecules, as well as the acridinium H atom, also form hydrogen bonds with the two anion species and extend the structure into two-dimensional sheets. Between these sheets there are also weak cation--anion and anion--anion pi-pi aromatic ring interactions. This structure represents only the third example of a simple quinacrine derivative for which structural data are available but differs from the other two in that it is unstable in the X-ray beam due to efflorescence, probably associated with the destruction of the unusual four-membered water chain structures.