A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Effects of microfinance on poverty reduction in Vietnam : a pseudo-panel data analysis

The development of microfinance in Vietnam since 1990s has coincided with a remarkable progress in poverty reduction. Numerous descriptive studies have illustrated that microfinance is an effective tool to eradicate poverty in Vietnam but evidence from quantitative studies is mixed. This study contributes to the literature by providing new evidence on the impact of microfinance to poverty reduction in Vietnam using the repeated cross - sectional data from the Vietnam Living Standard s Survey (VLSS) during period 1992 - 2010. Our results show that micro - loans contribute significantly to household consumption.

Prediction of maximal surface electromyographically based voluntary contractions of erector spinae muscles from sonographic measurements during isometric contractions

Objectives Currently, there are no studies combining electromyography (EMG) and sonography to estimate the absolute and relative strength values of erector spinae (ES) muscles in healthy individuals. The purpose of this study was to establish whether the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) of the ES during isometric contractions could be predicted from the changes in surface EMG as well as in fiber pennation and thickness as measured by sonography. Methods Thirty healthy adults performed 3 isometric extensions at 45° from the vertical to calculate the MVC force. Contractions at 33% and 100% of the MVC force were then used during sonographic and EMG recordings. These measurements were used to observe the architecture and function of the muscles during contraction. Statistical analysis was performed using bivariate regression and regression equations. Results The slope for each regression equation was statistically significant (P < .001) with R2 values of 0.837 and 0.986 for the right and left ES, respectively. The standard error estimate between the sonographic measurements and the regression-estimated pennation angles for the right and left ES were 0.10 and 0.02, respectively. Conclusions Erector spinae muscle activation can be predicted from the changes in fiber pennation during isometric contractions at 33% and 100% of the MVC force. These findings could be essential for developing a regression equation that could estimate the level of muscle activation from changes in the muscle architecture.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

Difference covering arrays and pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares

A pair of Latin squares, A and B, of order n, is said to be pseudo-orthogonal if each symbol in A is paired with every symbol in B precisely once, except for one symbol with which it is paired twice and one symbol with which it is not paired at all. A set of t Latin squares, of order n, are said to be mutually pseudo-orthogonal if they are pairwise pseudo-orthogonal. A special class of pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares are the mutually nearly orthogonal Latin squares (MNOLS) first discussed in 2002, with general constructions given in 2007. In this paper we develop row complete MNOLS from difference covering arrays. We will use this connection to settle the spectrum question for sets of 3 mutually pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares of even order, for all but the order 146.

Spectrometric and voltammetric studies of the interaction between quercetin and bovine serum albumin using warfarin as site marker with the aid of chemometrics

The interaction of quercetin, which is a bioflavonoid, with bovine serum albumin (BSA) was investigated under pseudo-physiological conditions by the application of UV–vis spectrometry, spectrofluorimetry and cyclic voltammetry (CV). These studies indicated a cooperative interaction between the quercetin–BSA complex and warfarin, which produced a ternary complex, quercetin–BSA–warfarin. It was found that both quercetin and warfarin were located in site I. However, the spectra of these three components overlapped and the chemometrics method – multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) was applied to resolve the spectra. The resolved spectra of quercetin–BSA and warfarin agreed well with their measured spectra, and importantly, the spectrum of the quercetin–BSA–warfarin complex was extracted. These results allowed the rationalization of the behaviour of the overlapping spectra. At lower concentrations ([warfarin] < 1 × 10−5 mol L−1), most of the site marker reacted with the quercetin–BSA, but free warfarin was present at higher concentrations. Interestingly, the ratio between quercetin–BSA and warfarin was found to be 1:2, suggesting a quercetin–BSA–(warfarin)2 complex, and the estimated equilibrium constant was 1.4 × 1011 M−2. The results suggest that at low concentrations, warfarin binds at the high-affinity sites (HAS), while low-affinity binding sites (LAS) are occupied at higher concentrations.

Synthesis of 4-arm star poly(L-Lactide) oligomers using an in situ-generated calcium-based initiator

Using an in situ-generated calcium-based initiating species derived from pentaerythritol, the bulk synthesis of well-defined 4-arm star poly(L-lactide) oligomers has been studied in detail. The substitution of the traditional initiator, stannous octoate with calcium hydride allowed the synthesis of oligomers that had both low PDIs and a comparable number of polymeric arms (3.7 – 3.9) to oligomers of similar molecular weight. Investigations into the degree of control observed during the course of the polymerization found that the insolubility of pentaerythritol in molten L-lactide resulted in an uncontrolled polymerization only when the feed mole ratio of L-lactide to pentaerythritol was 13. At feed ratios of 40 and greater, a pseudo-living polymerization was observed. As part of this study, in situ FT-Raman spectroscopy was demonstrated to be a suitable method to monitor the kinetics of the ring-opening polymerization (ROP) of lactide. The advantages of using this technique rather than FT-IR-ATR and 1H NMR for monitoring L-lactide consumption during polymerization are discussed.

Novel educational training program for community pharmacists

There is little evidence that workshops alone have a lasting impact on the day-to-day practice of participants. The current paper examined a strategy to increase generalization and maintenance of skills in the natural environment using pseudo-patients and immediate performance feedback to reinforce skills acquisition. A random half of pharmacies (N=30) took part in workshop training aimed at optimizing consumers' use of nonprescription analgesic products. Pharmacies in the training group also received performance feedback on their adherence to the recommended protocol. Feedback occurred immediately after a pseudo-patient visit in which confederates posed as purchasers of analgesics, and combined positive and corrective elements. Trained pharmacists were significantly more accurate at identifying people who misused the medication (P<0.001). The trained pharmacists were more likely than controls to use open-ended questions (P<0.001), assess readiness to change problematic use (P <0.001), and to deliver a brief intervention that was tailored to the person's commitment to alter his/her usage (P <0.001). Participants responded to the feedback positively. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that when workshop is combined with on-site performance feedback, it enhances practitioners' adherence to protocols in the natural setting.

Celebrating difference/censoring difference? : Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX

This paper examines performances that defy established representations of disease, deformity and bodily difference. Historically, the ‘deformed’ body has been cast – onstage and in sideshows – as flawed, an object of pity, or an example of the human capacity to overcome. Such representations define the boundaries of the ‘normal’ body by displaying its Other. They bracket the ‘abnormal’ body off as an example of deviance from the ‘norm’, thus, paradoxically, decreasing the social and symbolic visibility (and agency) of disabled people. Yet, in contemporary theory and culture, these representations are reappropriated – by disabled artists, certainly, but also as what Carrie Sandahl has called a ‘master trope’ for representing a range of bodily differences. In this paper, I investigate this phenomenon. I analyse French Canadian choreographer Marie Chouinard’s bODY rEMIX/gOLDBERG vARIATIONS, in which 10 able-bodied dancers are reborn as bizarre biotechnical mutants via the use of crutches, walkers, ballet shoes and barres as prosthetic pseudo-organs. These bodies defy boundaries, defy expectations, develop new modes of expression, and celebrate bodily difference. The self-inflicted pain dancers experience during training is cast as a ‘disablement’ that is ultimately ‘enabling’. I ask what effect encountering able bodies celebrating ‘dis’ or ‘diff’ ability has on audiences. Do we see the emergence of a once-repressed Other, no longer silenced, censored or negated? Or does using ‘disability’ to express the dancers’ difference and self-determination usurp a ‘trope’ by which disabled people themselves might speak back to the dominant culture, creating further censorship?

Accelerated computation of cyclic steady state for simulated-moving-bed processes

Industrial applications of the simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic technology have brought an emergent demand to improve the SMB process operation for higher efficiency and better robustness. Improved process modelling and more-efficient model computation will pave a path to meet this demand. However, the SMB unit operation exhibits complex dynamics, leading to challenges in SMB process modelling and model computation. One of the significant problems is how to quickly obtain the steady state of an SMB process model, as process metrics at the steady state are critical for process design and real-time control. The conventional computation method, which solves the process model cycle by cycle and takes the solution only when a cyclic steady state is reached after a certain number of switching, is computationally expensive. Adopting the concept of quasi-envelope (QE), this work treats the SMB operation as a pseudo-oscillatory process because of its large number of continuous switching. Then, an innovative QE computation scheme is developed to quickly obtain the steady state solution of an SMB model for any arbitrary initial condition. The QE computation scheme allows larger steps to be taken for predicting the slow change of the starting state within each switching. Incorporating with the wavelet-based technique, this scheme is demonstrated to be effective and efficient for an SMB sugar separation process. Moreover, investigations are also carried out on when the computation scheme should be activated and how the convergence of the scheme is affected by a variable stepsize.

Hydrogen bonding in the water stabilized structure of the modified unsymmetrically substituted viologen chromophore, N-ethyl-N'-(2-phosphonomethyl)-4,4'-bipyridylium dichloride

The crystal structure of the modified unsymmetrically N, N'-substituted viologen chromophore, N-ethyl- N'-(2-phosphonoethyl)-4, 4'-bipyridinium dichloride 0.75 hydrate. (1) has been determined. Crystals are triclinic, space group P-1 with Z = 2 in a cell with a = 7.2550(1), b = 13.2038(5), c = 18.5752(7) Å, α = 86.495(3), β = 83.527(2), γ = 88.921(2)o. The two independent but pseudo-symmetrically related cations in the asymmetric unit form one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded chains through short homomeric phosphonic acid O-H...O links [2.455(4), 2.464(4)A] while two of the chloride anions are similarly strongly linked to phosphonic acid groups [O-H…Cl, 2.889(4), 2.896(4)Å]. The other two chloride anions together with the two water molecules of solvation (one with partial occupancy) form unusual cyclic hydrogen-bonded bis(Cl...water) dianion units which lie between the layers of bipyridylium rings of the cation chain structures with which they are weakly associated.

A hydrogen tethered inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases

During wound repair, the balance between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their natural inhibitors (the TIMPs) is crucial for the normal extra cellular matrix turnover. However, the over expression of several MMPs including MMP-1, 2, 3, 8, 9 and MMP-10, combined with abnormally high levels of activation or low expression of TIMPs, may contribute to excessive degradation of connective tissue and formation of chronic ulcers. There are many groups exploring strategies for promoting wound healing involving delivery of growth factors, cells, ECM components and small molecules. Our approach for improving the balance of MMPs is not to add anything more to the wound, but instead to neutralise the over-expressed MMPs using inhibitors tethered to a bandage-like hydrogel. Our in vitro experiments using designed synthetic pseudo peptide inhibitors have been demonstrated to inhibit MMP activity in standard solutions. These inhibitors have also been tethered to polyethylene glycol hydrogels using a facile reaction between the linker unit on the inhibitor and the gel. After tethering the inhibition of MMPs diminishes to some extent and we postulate that this arises due to poor diffusion of the MMPs into the gels. When the tethered inhibitors were tested against chronic wound fluid obtained against patients we observed over 40% inhibition in proteolytic activity suggesting our approach may prove useful in rebalancing MMPs within chronic wounds.