Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Changes in Level of Virus Accumulation and Incidence of Infection are Critical in the Characterization of Rice Tungro Bacilliform Virus (RTBV) Resistance in Rice

Analysis by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay showed that Rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) accumulated in a cyclic pattern from early to late stages of infection in tungro-susceptible variety, Taichung Native 1 (TN1), and resistant variety, Balimau Putih, singly infected with RTBV or co-infected with RTBV+Rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV). These changes in virus accumulation resulted in differences in RTBV levels and incidence of infection. The virus levels were expressed relative to those of the susceptible variety and the incidence of infection was assessed at different weeks after inoculation. At a particular time point, RTBV levels in TN1 or Balimau Putih singly infected with RTBV were not significantly different from the virus level in plants co-infected with RTBV+RTSV. The relative RTBV levels in Balimau Putih either singly infected with RTBV or co-infected with RTBV+RTSV were significantly lower than those in TN1. The incidence of RTBV infection varied at different times in Balimau Putih but not in TN1, and to determine the actual infection, the number of plants that became infected at least once anytime during the 4wk observation period was considered. Considering the changes in RTBV accumulation, new parameters for analyzing RTBV resistance were established. Based on these parameters, Balimau Putih was characterized having resistance to virus accumulation although the actual incidence of infection was >75%.

A Data Picture of Australia's Arts and Entertainment Sector 2010

Australia’s Arts and Entertainment Sector underpins cultural and social innovation, improves the quality of community life, is essential to maintaining our cities as world class attractors of talent and investment, and helps create ‘Brand Australia’ in the global marketplace of ideas (QUT Creative Industries Faculty 2010). The sector makes a significant contribution to the Australian economy. So what is the size and nature of this contribution? The Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology recently conducted an exercise to source and present statistics in order to produce a data picture of Australia’s Arts and Entertainment Sector. The exercise involved gathering the latest statistics on broadcasting, new media, performing arts, and music composition, distribution and publishing as well as Australia’s performance in world markets.

Molecular evolutionary dynamics of Ross River virus and implications for vaccine efficacy

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne member of the genus Alphavirus that causes epidemic polyarthritis in humans, costing the Australian health system at least US$10 million annually. Recent progress in RRV vaccine development requires accurate assessment of RRV genetic diversity and evolution, particularly as they may affect the utility of future vaccination. In this study, we provide novel RRV genome sequences and investigate the evolutionary dynamics of RRV from time-structured E2 gene datasets. Our analysis indicates that, although RRV evolves at a similar rate to other alphaviruses (mean evolutionary rate of approx. 8x10(-4) nucleotide substitutions per site year(-1)), the relative genetic diversity of RRV has been continuously low through time, possibly as a result of purifying selection imposed by replication in a wide range of natural host and vector species. Together, these findings suggest that vaccination against RRV is unlikely to result in the rapid antigenic evolution that could compromise the future efficacy of current RRV vaccines.

Gaddafi and Libya : a case for just intervention?

Full militaristic intervention cannot be justified on the grounds that this is a ‘just war’. We are then left with the option to intervene militarily in a smaller way or not to intervene militarily at all.

IGDA Perspective May 2011 : Apres le deluge - The Brisbane [Briz-lantis] story

Report and narrative on the history of the Brisbane chapter of the International Game Developers Association (IGDA) for the Australian issue of the IGDA Perspectives monthly newsletter.

Deep End Teacher Guide : Green

Dr Mills is also the invited author of the Deep End Series Teacher Guides by ERA publications. This 3-volume series for teachers is used in more than 200 schools in Australia, the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway, and South America.

Deep End Teacher Guide : Orange

Dr Mills is the invited author of the Deep End Series Teacher Guides by ERA publications. This 3-volume series for teachers is used in more than 200 schools in Australia, the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway, and South America.

Backpackers and sustainable tourism : exploring the potential

There is conflicting evidence in the literature with respect to backpackers as contributors to sustainable travel. This paper explores this market with respect to sustainable travel attitudes, behaviours and preferences. More specifically it examined the motivations of backpacker visitors to Australia, their preferences for environmentally friendly and volunteer tourism experiences, and explored attitudes towards the influence of environmental impacts on the future of travel. The resultsindicate that not all backpackers necessarily have a strong focus on the sustainability of their travel, but that those interested in community and environmental volunteering have the greatest potential to make meaningful contributions.

Occupational health nurses’ roles, credentials, and continuing education in Ontario, Canada

The role of the occupational health nurse is broad and includes health care provider, manager/coordinator, educator/advisor, and case manager and consultant, depending on the type of industry and the country in which the nurse practices. Regardless of the type of role, the occupational health nurse must participate in continuing nursing education (CNE) activities. This study describes the roles, credentials, and number of CNE activities undertaken by occupational health nurses working in Ontario, Canada. Using a non-experimental descriptive design, a questionnaire was mailed to all practicing occupational health nurses who are members (n = 900) of a local nursing association. Three hundred fifty-four questionnaires were returned. Nurses reported a variety of roles in the following categories: case management, health promotion, policy development, infection control/travel health, ergonomics, education, research, health and safety, direct care, consultation, disaster preparedness, and industrial hygiene. Sixty-five percent of nurses held an occupational health nurse credential, and 19% of nurses attended more than 100 hours of CNE annually. Occupational health nurses have multiple workplace roles. Many attend CNE activities and they often prepare for credentialing.

Natural convection flow with combined buoyancy effects due to thermal and mass diffusion in a thermally stratified media

We present here a numerical study of laminar doubly diffusive free convection flows adjacent to a vertical surface in a stable thermally stratified medium. The governing equations of mass, momentum, energy and species are non-dimensionalized. These equations have been solved by using an implicit finite difference method and local non-similarity method. The results show many interesting aspects of complex interaction of the two buoyant mechanisms that have been shown in both the tabular as well as graphical form.

Natural convection from a plane vertical porous surface in non-isothermal surroundings

In this paper, laminar natural convection flow from a permeable and isothermal vertical surface placed in non-isothermal surroundings is considered. Introducing appropriate transformations into the boundary layer equations governing the flow derives non-similar boundary layer equations. Results of both the analytical and numerical solutions are then presented in the form of skin-friction and Nusselt number. Numerical solutions of the transformed non-similar boundary layer equations are obtained by three distinct solution methods, (i) the perturbation solutions for small � (ii) the asymptotic solution for large � (iii) the implicit finite difference method for all � where � is the transpiration parameter. Perturbation solutions for small and large values of � are compared with the finite difference solutions for different values of pertinent parameters, namely, the Prandtl number Pr, and the ambient temperature gradient n.

Assessment for learning - Why the theory needs the practice

Assessment for Learning is a pedagogical practice with anticipated gains of increased student motivation, mastery and autonomy as learners develop their capacity to monitor and plan their own learning progress. Assessment for Learning (AfL) differs from Assessment of learning in its timing, occurring within the regular flow of learning rather than end point, in its purpose of improving student learning rather than summative grading and in the ownership of the learning where the student voice is heard in judging quality. Since Black and Wiliam (1998) highlighted the achievement gains that AfL practices seem to bring to all learners in classrooms, it has become part of current educational policy discourse in Australia, yet teacher adoption of the practices is not a straightforward implementation of techniques within an existing classroom repertoire. As can be seen from the following meta-analysis, recent research highlights a more complex interrelationship between teacher and student beliefs about learning and assessment, and the social and cultural interactions in and contexts of the classroom. More research is needed from a sociocultural perspective that allows meaning to emerge from practice. Before another policy push, we need to understand better the many factors within the assessment relationship. We need to hear from teachers and students through long-term AfL case studies both to inform AfL theory and to shed light on the complexities of pedagogical change for enhancing learner autonomy.

Numerical exploration of the defect’s effect on mechanical properties of nanowires under torsion

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been carried out to investigate the defect’s effect on the mechanical properties of single-crystal copper nanowire with different surface defects, under torsion deformation. The torsional rigidity is found insensitive to the surface defects and the critical angle appears an obvious decrease due to the surface defects, the largest decrease is found for the nanowire with surface horizon defect. The deformation mechanism appears different degrees of influence due to surface defects. The surface defects play a role of dislocation sources. Comparing with single intrinsic stacking faults formation for the perfect nanowire, much affluent deformation processes have been activated because of surface defects, for instance, we find the twins formation for the nanowire with a surface 45o defect.

Improved sensorimotor adaptation after exhaustive exercise is accompanied by altered brain activity

Acute exercise has been shown to exhibit different effects on human sensorimotor behavior; however, the causes and mechanisms of the responses are often not clear. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the effects of incremental running until exhaustion on sensorimotor performance and adaptation in a tracking task. Subjects were randomly assigned to a running group (RG), a tracking group (TG), or a running followed by tracking group (RTG), with 10 subjects assigned to each group. Treadmill running velocity was initially set at 2.0 m s− 1, increasing by 0.5 m s− 1 every 5 min until exhaustion. Tracking consisted of 35 episodes (each 40 s) where the subjects' task was to track a visual target on a computer screen while the visual feedback was veridical (performance) or left-right reversed (adaptation). Resting electroencephalographic (EEG) activity was recorded before and after each experimental condition (running, tracking, rest). Tracking performance and the final amount of adaptation did not differ between groups. However, task adaptation was significantly faster in RTG compared to TG. In addition, increased alpha and beta power were observed following tracking in TG but not RTG although exhaustive running failed to induce significant changes in these frequency bands. Our results suggest that exhaustive running can facilitate adaptation processes in a manual tracking task. Attenuated cortical activation following tracking in the exercise condition was interpreted to indicate cortical efficiency and exercise-induced facilitation of selective central processes during actual task demands.