Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

The probability archive : from essence to uncertainty in the mediation of knowledge

This volume puts together the works of a group of distinguished scholars and active researchers in the field of media and communication studies to reflect upon the past, present, and future of new media research. The chapters examine the implications of new media technologies on everyday life, existing social institutions, and the society at large at various levels of analysis. Macro-level analyses of changing techno-social formation – such as discussions of the rise of surveillance society and the "fifth estate" – are combined with studies on concrete and specific new media phenomena, such as the rise of Pro-Am collaboration and "fan labor" online. In the process, prominent concepts in the field of new media studies, such as social capital, displacement, and convergence, are critically examined, while new theoretical perspectives are proposed and explicated. Reflecting the inter-disciplinary nature of the field of new media studies and communication research in general, the chapters interrogate into the problematic through a range of theoretical and methodological approaches. The book should offer students and researchers who are interested in the social impact of new media both critical reviews of the existing literature and inspirations for developing new research questions.

Averting uncertainty : a practical guide to physical activity research in Australian schools

Preventative health has become central to contemporary health care, identifying youth physical activity as a key factor in determining health and functioning. Schools offer a unique research setting due to distinctive methodological circumstances. However, school-based researchers face several obstacles in their endeavour to complete successful research investigations; often confronted with complex research designs and methodological procedures that are not easily amenable to school contexts. The purpose of this paper is to provide a practical guide for teachers (both teacher educators and teaching practitioners) seeking to conduct physical activity-based research in Australian school settings, as well as discuss research practices. The research enabling process has been divided into six phases: preparation; design; outcome measures; procedures; participants; and feedback. Careful planning and consideration must be undertaken prior to the commencement of, and during the research process, due to the complex nature of school settings and research processes that exist in the Australian context.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Distribution harmonic state estimation based on a modified PSO considering parameters uncertainty

This paper presents a new algorithm based on a Modified Particle Swarm Optimization (MPSO) to estimate the harmonic state variables in a distribution networks. The proposed algorithm performs the estimation for both amplitude and phase of each injection harmonic currents by minimizing the error between the measured values from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. The proposed algorithm can take into account the uncertainty of the harmonic pseudo measurement and the tolerance in the line impedances of the network as well as the uncertainty of the Distributed Generators (DGs) such as Wind Turbines (WTs). The main features of the proposed MPSO algorithm are usage of a primary and secondary PSO loop and applying the mutation function. The simulation results on 34-bus IEEE radial and a 70-bus realistic radial test networks are presented. The results demonstrate that the speed and the accuracy of the proposed Distribution Harmonic State Estimation (DHSE) algorithm are very excellent compared to the algorithms such as Weight Least Square (WLS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), original PSO, and Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO).

Distribution harmonic state estimation based on a hybrid PSO and SA algorithm considering parameters uncertainty

This paper presents a new algorithm based on a Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Simulated Annealing (SA) called PSO-SA to estimate harmonic state variables in distribution networks. The proposed algorithm performs estimation for both amplitude and phase of each harmonic currents injection by minimizing the error between the measured values from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. The proposed algorithm can take into account the uncertainty of the harmonic pseudo measurement and the tolerance in the line impedances of the network as well as uncertainty of the Distributed Generators (DGs) such as Wind Turbines (WT). The main feature of proposed PSO-SA algorithm is to reach quickly around the global optimum by PSO with enabling a mutation function and then to find that optimum by SA searching algorithm. Simulation results on IEEE 34 bus radial and a realistic 70-bus radial test networks are presented to demonstrate the speed and accuracy of proposed Distribution Harmonic State Estimation (DHSE) algorithm is extremely effective and efficient in comparison with the conventional algorithms such as Weight Least Square (WLS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), original PSO and Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO) algorithm.

Robust multiple-sensing-modality data fusion using Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces

The ability to build high-fidelity 3D representations of the environment from sensor data is critical for autonomous robots. Multi-sensor data fusion allows for more complete and accurate representations. Furthermore, using distinct sensing modalities (i.e. sensors using a different physical process and/or operating at different electromagnetic frequencies) usually leads to more reliable perception, especially in challenging environments, as modalities may complement each other. However, they may react differently to certain materials or environmental conditions, leading to catastrophic fusion. In this paper, we propose a new method to reliably fuse data from multiple sensing modalities, including in situations where they detect different targets. We first compute distinct continuous surface representations for each sensing modality, with uncertainty, using Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces (GPIS). Second, we perform a local consistency test between these representations, to separate consistent data (i.e. data corresponding to the detection of the same target by the sensors) from inconsistent data. The consistent data can then be fused together, using another GPIS process, and the rest of the data can be combined as appropriate. The approach is first validated using synthetic data. We then demonstrate its benefit using a mobile robot, equipped with a laser scanner and a radar, which operates in an outdoor environment in the presence of large clouds of airborne dust and smoke.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain

Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.

Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

Practice uncertainty: Changing perceptions

Practice uncertainty occurs when health care providers feel uncomfortable in response to unfamiliar or challenging patient care situations. Practice uncertainty is inevitable in health care, and there are many contextual factors that can lead to either good or bad outcomes for patients and health care providers. Practice uncertainty is not a well-established concept in the literature, perhaps because of the predominant empirical paradigm and the high value placed on certainty within current health care culture. This study was conducted to explore practice uncertainty and bring this topic into the foreground as a first step toward practice evolution. A shift in the perception of practice uncertainty may change the way in which practitioners experience this phenomenon. This process must start with nursing educators recognizing and acknowledging this phenomenon when it occurs.

Job uncertainty and personal control during downsizing: A comparison of survivors and victims

This study developed and tested a model of job uncertainty for survivors and victims of downsizing. Data were collected from three samples of employees in a public hospital, each representing three phases of the downsizing process: immediately before the announcement of the redeployment of staff, during the implementation of the downsizing, and towards the end of the official change programme. As predicted, levels of job uncertainty and personal control had a direct relationship with emotional exhaustion and job satisfaction. In addition, there was evidence to suggest that personal control mediated the relationship between job uncertainty and employee adjustment, a pattern of results that varied across each of the three phases of the change event. From the perspective of the organization’s overall climate, it was found that levels of job uncertainty, personal control and job satisfaction improved and/or stabilized over the downsizing process. During the implementation phase, survivors experienced higher levels of personal control than victims, but both groups of employees reported similar levels of job uncertainty. We discuss the implications of our results for strategically managing uncertainty during and after organizational change.

Incorporating process variability into stormwater quality modelling

Process variability in pollutant build-up and wash-off generates inherent uncertainty that affects the outcomes of stormwater quality models. Poor characterisation of process variability constrains the accurate accounting of the uncertainty associated with pollutant processes. This acts as a significant limitation to effective decision making in relation to stormwater pollution mitigation. The study undertaken developed three theoretical scenarios based on research findings that variations in particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm during pollutant build-up and wash-off primarily determine the variability associated with these processes. These scenarios, which combine pollutant build-up and wash-off processes that takes place on a continuous timeline, are able to explain process variability under different field conditions. Given the variability characteristics of a specific build-up or wash-off event, the theoretical scenarios help to infer the variability characteristics of the associated pollutant process that follows. Mathematical formulation of the theoretical scenarios enables the incorporation of variability characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off processes in stormwater quality models. The research study outcomes will contribute to the quantitative assessment of uncertainty as an integral part of the interpretation of stormwater quality modelling outcomes.

Uncertainty based online planning for UAV target finding in cluttered and GPS-denied environments

There are some scenarios in which Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation becomes a challenge due to the occlusion of GPS systems signal, the presence of obstacles and constraints in the space in which a UAV operates. An additional challenge is presented when a target whose location is unknown must be found within a confined space. In this paper we present a UAV navigation and target finding mission, modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) using a state-of-the-art online solver in a real scenario using a low cost commercial multi rotor UAV and a modular system architecture running under the Robotic Operative System (ROS). Using POMDP has several advantages to conventional approaches as they take into account uncertainties in sensor information. We present a framework for testing the mission with simulation tests and real flight tests in which we model the system dynamics and motion and perception uncertainties. The system uses a quad-copter aircraft with an board downwards looking camera without the need of GPS systems while avoiding obstacles within a confined area. Results indicate that the system has 100% success rate in simulation and 80% rate during flight test for finding targets located at different locations.