Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

A developmental cascade model of behavioral sleep problems and emotional and attentional self-regulation across early childhood

This paper documents the longitudinal and reciprocal relations among behavioral sleep problems, emotional and attentional self-regulation in a population sample of 4109 children participating in the Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort. Maternal reports of children’s sleep problems and self-regulation were collected at five time points from infancy to 8-9 years of age. Longitudinal structural equation modeling supported a developmental cascade model in which sleep problems have a persistent negative effect on emotional regulation, which in turn contributes to ongoing sleep problems and poorer attentional regulation in children over time. Findings suggest that sleep behaviors are a key target for interventions that aim to improve children’s self-regulatory capacities.

Public Open Spaces in Kathmandu Valley: A Review of Contemporary Problems and Historic Precedents

The current growth of Kathmandu Valley has been malignant in many ways which suggests a decline of public realm in the city. As the current efforts for planning and design of public open space exhibit numerous problems related to both physical and social aspects of city building, this book examines the shortcomings with contemporary urban development from urban planning and design point of view and attempts to suggest methods to overcome such shortcomings based on the study of historic urban squares. This book identifies the inherent urban design qualities of the historic urban squares in order to learn from them and also attempts to put forward the principles and guidelines for contemporary public space design based on such findings.

Early childhood profiles of sleep problems and self-regulation predict later school adjustment

Background Children’s sleep problems and self-regulation problems have been independently associated with poorer adjustment to school, but there has been limited exploration of longitudinal early childhood profiles that include both indicators. Aims This study explores the normative developmental pathway for sleep problems and self-regulation across early childhood, and investigates whether departure from the normative pathway is associated with later social-emotional adjustment to school. Sample This study involved 2880 children participating in the Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort from Wave 1 (0-1 years) to Wave 4 (6-7 years). Method Mothers reported on children’s sleep problems, emotional, and attentional self-regulation at three time points from birth to 5 years. Teachers reported on children’s social-emotional adjustment to school at 6-7 years. Latent profile analysis was used to establish person-centred longitudinal profiles. Results Three profiles were found. The normative profile (69%) had consistently average or higher emotional and attentional regulation scores and sleep problems that steadily reduced from birth to 5. The remaining 31% of children were members of two non-normative self-regulation profiles, both characterised by escalating sleep problems across early childhood and below mean self-regulation. Non-normative group membership was associated with higher teacher-reported hyperactivity and emotional problems, and poorer classroom self-regulation and prosocial skills. Conclusion Early childhood profiles of self-regulation that include sleep problems offer a way to identify children at risk of poor school adjustment. Children with escalating early childhood sleep problems should be considered an important target group for school transition interventions.

On collective unintelligence

The idea of collective unintelligence is examined in this paper to highlight some of the conceptual and practical problems faced in modeling groups. Examples drawn from international crises and economics provide illustrative problems of collective failures to act in intelligent ways, despite the inputs and efforts of many skilled and intelligent parties. Choices made of “appropriate” perceptions, analysis and evaluations are examined along with how these might be combined. A simple vector representation illustrates some of the issues and creative possibilities in multi-party actions. Revealed as manifest (un-)intelligence are the resolutions of various problems and potentials that arise in dealing with the “each and all” of a group (wherein items are necessarily non-parallel and of unequal valency). Such issues challenge those seeking to model collective intelligence, but much may be learned.

Maternal anxiety and attention problems in children at 5 and 14 years

Objective: This study examines the association between maternal anxiety from pregnancy to 5 years and child attention problems at 5 and 14 years. Method: Birth cohort of 3,982 individuals born in Brisbane between 1981 and 1983 are assessed. Self-reported measures of maternal anxiety are assessed at four time points. Maternal reports of child attention problems using Achenbach’s Child Behavior Checklist are assessed at 5 and 14 years. Results: Children of mothers experiencing anxiety during or after pregnancy are at greater risk of experiencing attention problems at 5 and 14 years. After adjusting for maternal age and child’s gender, antenatal anxiety is strongly associated with persistent attention problems (OR = 3.65, 95% CI = 2.19, 6.07). Children with chronically anxious mothers are 5.67 (95% CI = 3.56, 9.03) times more likely to have persistent attention problems. These associations remain consistent after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions: Maternal anxiety appears to increase the rate of child attention problems and identifies a need for treatment programs to have a dual focus—the mother and her child. (J. of Att. Dis. 2009; XX(X) 1-XX)

Diesel engine problems, acoustic emission signals and simulated misfire faults

This paper discusses commonly encountered diesel engine problems and the underlying combustion related faults. Also discussed are the methods used in previous studies to simulate diesel engine faults and the initial results of an experimental simulation of a common combustion related diesel engine fault, namely diesel engine misfire. This experimental fault simulation represents the first step towards a comprehensive investigation and analysis into the characteristics of acoustic emission signals arising from combustion related diesel engine faults. Data corresponding to different engine running conditions was captured using in-cylinder pressure, vibration and acoustic emission transducers along with both crank-angle encoder and top-dead centre signals. Using these signals, it was possible to characterise the diesel engine in-cylinder pressure profiles and the effect of different combustion conditions on both vibration and acoustic emission signals.

What are the health needs, familial and social problems of Thai migrants in a local community in Australia? A focus group study

This study explored the health needs, familial and social problems of Thai migrants in a local community in Brisbane, Australia. Five focus groups with Thai migrants were conducted. The qualitative data were examined using thematic content analysis that is specifically designed for focus group analysis. Four themes were identified: (1) positive experiences in Australia, (2) physical health problems, (3) mental health problems, and (4) familial and social health problems. This study revealed key health needs related to chronic disease and mental health, major barriers to health service use, such as language skills, and facilitating factors, such as the Thai Temple. We concluded that because the health needs, familial and social problems of Thai migrants were complex and culture bound, the development of health and community services for Thai migrants needs to take account of the ways in which Thai culture both negatively impacts health and offer positive solutions to problems.

Mathematical modelling of controlled drug release from polymer micro-spheres : incorporating the effects of swelling, diffusion and dissolution via moving boundary problems

Controlled drug delivery is a key topic in modern pharmacotherapy, where controlled drug delivery devices are required to prolong the period of release, maintain a constant release rate, or release the drug with a predetermined release profile. In the pharmaceutical industry, the development process of a controlled drug delivery device may be facilitated enormously by the mathematical modelling of drug release mechanisms, directly decreasing the number of necessary experiments. Such mathematical modelling is difficult because several mechanisms are involved during the drug release process. The main drug release mechanisms of a controlled release device are based on the device’s physiochemical properties, and include diffusion, swelling and erosion. In this thesis, four controlled drug delivery models are investigated. These four models selectively involve the solvent penetration into the polymeric device, the swelling of the polymer, the polymer erosion and the drug diffusion out of the device but all share two common key features. The first is that the solvent penetration into the polymer causes the transition of the polymer from a glassy state into a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of the polymer is modelled as a moving boundary and the speed of this interface is governed by a kinetic law. The second feature is that drug diffusion only happens in the rubbery region of the polymer, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient which is dependent on the concentration of solvent. These models are analysed by using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, where front-fixing methods and the method of lines with finite difference approximations are used to solve these models numerically. This numerical scheme is conservative, accurate and easily implemented to the moving boundary problems and is thoroughly explained in Section 3.2. From the small time asymptotic analysis in Sections 5.3.1, 6.3.1 and 7.2.1, these models exhibit the non-Fickian behaviour referred to as Case II diffusion, and an initial constant rate of drug release which is appealing to the pharmaceutical industry because this indicates zeroorder release. The numerical results of the models qualitatively confirms the experimental behaviour identified in the literature. The knowledge obtained from investigating these models can help to develop more complex multi-layered drug delivery devices in order to achieve sophisticated drug release profiles. A multi-layer matrix tablet, which consists of a number of polymer layers designed to provide sustainable and constant drug release or bimodal drug release, is also discussed in this research. The moving boundary problem describing the solvent penetration into the polymer also arises in melting and freezing problems which have been modelled as the classical onephase Stefan problem. The classical one-phase Stefan problem has unrealistic singularities existed in the problem at the complete melting time. Hence we investigate the effect of including the kinetic undercooling to the melting problem and this problem is called the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. Interestingly we discover the unrealistic singularities existed in the classical one-phase Stefan problem at the complete melting time are regularised and also find out the small time behaviour of the one-phase Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling is different to the classical one-phase Stefan problem from the small time asymptotic analysis in Section 3.3. In the case of melting very small particles, it is known that surface tension effects are important. The effect of including the surface tension to the melting problem for nanoparticles (no kinetic undercooling) has been investigated in the past, however the one-phase Stefan problem with surface tension exhibits finite-time blow-up. Therefore we investigate the effect of including both the surface tension and kinetic undercooling to the melting problem for nanoparticles and find out the the solution continues to exist until complete melting. The investigation of including kinetic undercooling and surface tension to the melting problems reveals more insight into the regularisations of unphysical singularities in the classical one-phase Stefan problem. This investigation gives a better understanding of melting a particle, and contributes to the current body of knowledge related to melting and freezing due to heat conduction.

The Child Behavior Checklist and Youth Self-Report in adolescents with epilepsy : testing measurement invariance of the Attention and Thought Problems subscales

The objective of this study was to test for the measurement invariance of the Attention and Thought Problems subscales of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and Youth Self-Report (YSR) in a population-based sample of adolescents with and without epilepsy. Data were obtained from the 14-year follow-up of the Mater University Study of Pregnancy in which 33 adolescents with epilepsy and 1068 healthy controls were included for analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test for measurement invariance between adolescents with and without epilepsy. Structural equation modeling was used to test for group differences in attention and thought problems as measured with the CBCL and YSR. Measurement invariance was demonstrated for the original CBCL Attention Problems and YSR Thought Problems. After the removal of ambiguous items (“confused” and “daydreams”),measurement invariance was established for the YSR Attention Problems. The original and reduced CBCL Thought Problems were noninvariant. Adolescents with epilepsy had significantly more symptoms of behavioral problems on the CBCL Attention Problems, β = 0.51, p = 0.002, compared with healthy controls. In contrast, no significant differences were found for the YSR Attention and Thought Problems, β = −0.11, p = 0.417 and β = −0.20, p = 0.116, respectively. In this population-based sample of adolescents with epilepsy, the CBCL Attention Problems and YSR Thought Problems appear to be valid measures of behavioral problems, whereas the YSR Attention Problems was valid only after the removal of ambiguous items. Replication of these findings in clinical samples of adolescents with epilepsy that overcome the limitations of the current study is warranted.

Developing a participatory impact assessment approach and action research culture within a communication for social change organisation in Nepal

Developing an effective impact evaluation framework, managing and conducting rigorous impact evaluations, and developing a strong research and evaluation culture within development communication organisations presents many challenges. This is especially so when both the community and organisational context is continually changing and the outcomes of programs are complex and difficult to clearly identify.----- This paper presents a case study from a research project being conducted from 2007-2010 that aims to address these challenges and issues, entitled Assessing Communication for Social Change: A New Agenda in Impact Assessment. Building on previous development communication projects which used ethnographic action research, this project is developing, trailing and rigorously evaluating a participatory impact assessment methodology for assessing the social change impacts of community radio programs in Nepal. This project is a collaboration between Equal Access – Nepal (EAN), Equal Access – International, local stakeholders and listeners, a network of trained community researchers, and a research team from two Australian universities. A key element of the project is the establishment of an organisational culture within EAN that values and supports the impact assessment process being developed, which is based on continuous action learning and improvement. The paper describes the situation related to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and impact assessment before the project began, in which EAN was often reliant on time-bound studies and ‘success stories’ derived from listener letters and feedback. We then outline the various strategies used in an effort to develop stronger and more effective impact assessment and M&E systems, and the gradual changes that have occurred to date. These changes include a greater understanding of the value of adopting a participatory, holistic, evidence-based approach to impact assessment. We also critically review the many challenges experienced in this process, including:----- • Tension between the pressure from donors to ‘prove’ impacts and the adoption of a bottom-up, participatory approach based on ‘improving’ programs in ways that meet community needs and aspirations.----- • Resistance from the content teams to changing their existing M&E practices and to the perceived complexity of the approach.----- • Lack of meaningful connection between the M&E and content teams.----- • Human resource problems and lack of capacity in analysing qualitative data and reporting results.----- • The contextual challenges, including extreme poverty, wide cultural and linguistic diversity, poor transport and communications infrastructure, and political instability.----- • A general lack of acceptance of the importance of evaluation within Nepal due to accepting everything as fate or ‘natural’ rather than requiring investigation into a problem.

Social justice and high-quality human services : visioning the place of a contemporary professional association

The current world situation is plagued by “wicked problems” and a widespread sense of “things are going to get worse”. We confront the almost imponderable consequences of global habitat destruction and climate change, as well as the meltdown of the financial markets with their largely yet to be seen damage to the “real economy”. These things will have considerable negative impacts on the social system and people's lives, particularly the disadvantaged and socially excluded, and require innovative policy and program responses delivered by caring, intelligent, and committed practitioners. These gargantuan issues put into perspective the difficulties that confront social, welfare, and community work today. Yet, in times of trouble, social work and human services tend to do well. For example, although Australian Social Workers and Welfare and Community Workers have experienced phenomenal job growth over the past 5 years, they also have good prospects for future growth and above average salaries in the seventh and sixth deciles, respectively (Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, 2008). I aim to examine the host of reasons why the pursuit of social justice and high-quality human services is difficult to attain in today's world and then consider how the broadly defined profession of social welfare practitioners may collectively take action to (a) respond in ways that reassert our role in compassionately assisting the downtrodden and (b) reclaim the capacity to be a significant body of professional expertise driving social policy and programs. For too long social work has responded to the wider factors it confronts through a combination of ignoring them, critiquing from a distance, and concentrating on the job at hand and our day-to-day responsibilities. Unfortunately, “holding the line” has proved futile and, little by little, the broad social mandate and role of social welfare has altered until, currently, most social programs entail significant social surveillance of troublesome or dangerous groups, rather than assistance. At times it almost seems like the word “help” has been lost in the political and managerial lexicon, replaced by “manage” and “control”. Our values, beliefs, and ethics are under real threat as guiding principles for social programs.

Construction safety in the repair and maintenance sector

Statistics indicate that the percentage of fatal industrial accidents arising from repair, maintenance, minor alteration and addition (RMAA) works in Hong Kong was disturbingly high and was over 56% in 2006. This paper provides an initial report of a research project funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the HKSAR to address this safety issue. The aim of this study is to scrutinize the causal relationship between safety climate and safety performance in the RMAA sector. It aims to evaluate the safety climate in the RMAA sector; examine its impacts on safety performance, and recommend measures to improve safety performance in the RMAA sector. This paper firstly reports on the statistics of construction accidents arising from RMAA works. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are dis-cussed. The study will critically review these related problems and provide recommendations for improving safety performance in the RMAA sector.