77 resultados para Prior, Matthew, 1664-1721
Resumo:
Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile
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Background: The first sign of developing multiple sclerosis is a clinically isolated syndrome that resembles a multiple sclerosis relapse. Objective/methods: The objective was to review the clinical trials of two medicines in clinically isolated syndromes (interferon β and glatiramer acetate) to determine whether they prevent progression to definite multiple sclerosis. Results: In the BENEFIT trial, after 2 years, 45% of subjects in the placebo group developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis, and the rate was lower in the interferon β-1b group. Then all subjects were offered interferon β-1b, and the original interferon β-1b group became the early treatment group, and the placebo group became the delayed treatment group. After 5 years, the number of subjects with clinical definite multiple sclerosis remained lower in the early treatment than late treatment group. In the PreCISe trial, after 2 years, the time for 25% of the subjects to convert to definite multiple sclerosis was prolonged in the glatiramer group. Conclusions: Interferon β-1b and glatiramer acetate slow the progression of clinically isolated syndromes to definite multiple sclerosis. However, it is not known whether this early treatment slows the progression to the physical disabilities experienced in multiple sclerosis.
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Goals: Few studies have repeatedly evaluated quality of life and potentially relevant factors in patients with benign primary brain tumor. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the experience of the symptom distress, functional status, depression, and quality of life prior to surgery (T1) and 1 month post-discharge (T2). ---------- Patients and methods: This was a prospective cohort study including 58 patients with benign primary brain tumor in one teaching hospital in the Taipei area of Taiwan. The research instruments included the M.D. Anderson Symptom Inventory, the Functional Independence Measure scale, the Hospital Depression Scale, and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Brain.---------- Results: Symptom distress (T1: r=−0.90, p<0.01; T2: r=−0.52, p<0.01), functional status (T1: r=0.56, p<0.01), and depression (T1: r=−0.71, p<0.01) demonstrated a significant relationship with patients' quality of life. Multivariate analysis identified symptom distress (explained 80.2%, Rinc 2=0.802, p=0.001) and depression (explained 5.2%, Rinc 2=0.052, p<0.001) continued to have a significant independent influence on quality of life prior to surgery (T1) after controlling for key demographic and medical variables. Furthermore, only symptom distress (explained 27.1%, Rinc 2=0.271, p=0.001) continued to have a significant independent influence on quality of life at 1 month after discharge (T2).---------- Conclusions: The study highlights the potential importance of a patient's symptom distress on quality of life prior to and following surgery. Health professionals should inquire about symptom distress over time. Specific interventions for symptoms may improve the symptom impact on quality of life. Additional studies should evaluate symptom distress on longer-term quality of life of patients with benign brain tumor.
Resumo:
Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au
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This paper presents a framework for performing real-time recursive estimation of landmarks’ visual appearance. Imaging data in its original high dimensional space is probabilistically mapped to a compressed low dimensional space through the definition of likelihood functions. The likelihoods are subsequently fused with prior information using a Bayesian update. This process produces a probabilistic estimate of the low dimensional representation of the landmark visual appearance. The overall filtering provides information complementary to the conventional position estimates which is used to enhance data association. In addition to robotics observations, the filter integrates human observations in the appearance estimates. The appearance tracks as computed by the filter allow landmark classification. The set of labels involved in the classification task is thought of as an observation space where human observations are made by selecting a label. The low dimensional appearance estimates returned by the filter allow for low cost communication in low bandwidth sensor networks. Deployment of the filter in such a network is demonstrated in an outdoor mapping application involving a human operator, a ground and an air vehicle.
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A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.
Resumo:
Objective: This study investigated: (i) the prevalence of ureaplasmas in semen and washed semen and (ii) the effect of ureaplasmas on semen andrology parameters. Design: Prospective study. Setting: IVF unit -private hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Patient(s): Three hundred and forty three men participating in an assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment cycle. Intervention(s): Semen and washed semen tested by culture, PCR assays and indirect immunofluorescent antibody assays. Statistical differences were determined by a t-test, Wilcoxon or Pearson’s Chi- square test where appropriate. Main Outcome Measure(s): The prevalence of ureaplasmas in semen and washed semen and the effect of these microorganisms on semen andrology parameters. Result(s): Ureaplasmas were detected in 73/343 (22%) semen samples and 29/343 (8.5%) washed semen samples. Ureaplasmas adherent to the surface of spermatozoa were demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescent antibody testing. U. parvum serovar 6 (36.6%) and U. urealyticum (30%) were the most prevalent isolates in washed semen. A comparison of the semen andrology parameters of washed semen ureaplasma positive and negative groups demonstrated a lower proportion of non-motile sperm in the washed semen ureaplasma positive group. Conclusion(s): Ureaplasmas are not always removed from semen by a standard ART washing procedure and can remain adherent to the surface of spermatozoa.
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We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.
Resumo:
We consider the problem of how to construct robust designs for Poisson regression models. An analytical expression is derived for robust designs for first-order Poisson regression models where uncertainty exists in the prior parameter estimates. Given certain constraints in the methodology, it may be necessary to extend the robust designs for implementation in practical experiments. With these extensions, our methodology constructs designs which perform similarly, in terms of estimation, to current techniques, and offers the solution in a more timely manner. We further apply this analytic result to cases where uncertainty exists in the linear predictor. The application of this methodology to practical design problems such as screening experiments is explored. Given the minimal prior knowledge that is usually available when conducting such experiments, it is recommended to derive designs robust across a variety of systems. However, incorporating such uncertainty into the design process can be a computationally intense exercise. Hence, our analytic approach is explored as an alternative.
Resumo:
Purpose of this paper – The purpose of this investigation is to help establish: whether or not strong relationships between suppliers and customers improve performance; and if prescriptive frameworks on outsourcing radical innovations are dependent on industry clockspeed. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of UK-based manufacturers, followed by a statistical analysis. Findings – Long-term supplier links seem not to play a role in the development of radical innovations. Moreover, industry clockspeed has no significant bearing on the success or failure of any outsourcing strategy for radically new technologies. Research limitations/implications – Literature about outsourcing in the face of radical innovation can be more confidently applied to industries of all clockspeeds. Practical implications – Prescriptions for fast clockspeed industries should be applied more broadly: all industries should maintain a high degree of vertical integration in the early days of a radical innovation. Originality/value – Prior papers had explored whether or not a company should outsource radical innovations, but none had determined if this is equally true for slow industries and fast ones. Therein lies the original contribution of this paper.
Resumo:
Prior to Emancipation, slave and free African Americans (A As) started and ran successful businesses. Events of the last century, such as the Great Migration north and the modernization of the American industry, created traditionally lower AA participation in entrepreneurship, and much of the history of successful AA entrepreneurs has been lost. Only now is AA participation in entrepreneurship returning to previously high levels. In this entry we review current literature on AA entrepreneurship and attempt to answer questions like "What is the history of AA entrepreneurship?" "What are the barriers?" "What interventions were attempted?" "What are the individual and collective AA success stories?" and “What is the future of AA entrepreneurship?"
Resumo:
Trajectory basis Non-Rigid Structure From Motion (NRSFM) currently faces two problems: the limit of reconstructability and the need to tune the basis size for different sequences. This paper provides a novel theoretical bound on 3D reconstruction error, arguing that the existing definition of reconstructability is fundamentally flawed in that it fails to consider system condition. This insight motivates a novel strategy whereby the trajectory's response to a set of high-pass filters is minimised. The new approach eliminates the need to tune the basis size and is more efficient for long sequences. Additionally, the truncated DCT basis is shown to have a dual interpretation as a high-pass filter. The success of trajectory filter reconstruction is demonstrated quantitatively on synthetic projections of real motion capture sequences and qualitatively on real image sequences.
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As the use of fiducial markers (FMs) for the localisation of the prostate during external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has become part of routine practice, radiation therapists (RTs) have become increasingly responsible for online image interpretation. The aim of this investigation was to quantify the limits of agreement (LoA) between RTs when localising to FMs with orthogonal kilovoltage (kV) imaging. Methods Six patients receiving prostate EBRT utilising FMs were included in this study. Treatment localisation was performed using kV imaging prior to each fraction. Online stereoscopic assessment of FMs, performed by the treating RTs, was compared with the offline assessment by three RTs. Observer agreement was determined by pairwise Bland-Altman analysis. Results Stereoscopic analysis of 225 image pairs was performed online at the time of treatment, and offline by three RT observers. Eighteen pairwise Bland-Altman analyses were completed to assess the level of agreement between observers. Localisation by RTs was found to be within clinically acceptable 95% LoAs. Conclusions Small differences between RTs, in both the online and offline setting, were found to be within clinically acceptable limits. RTs were able to make consistent and reliable judgements when matching FMs on planar kV imaging.