Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Psip1/Ledgf p52 binds methylated histone H3K36 and splicing factors and contributes to the regulation of alternative splicing

Increasing evidence suggests that chromatin modifications have important roles in modulating constitutive or alternative splicing. Here we demonstrate that the PWWP domain of the chromatin-associated protein Psip1/Ledgf can specifically recognize tri-methylated H3K36 and that, like this histone modification, the Psip1 short (p52) isoform is enriched at active genes. We show that the p52, but not the long (p75), isoform of Psip1 co-localizes and interacts with Srsf1 and other proteins involved in mRNA processing. The level of H3K36me3 associated Srsf1 is reduced in Psip1 mutant cells and alternative splicing of specific genes is affected. Moreover, we show altered Srsf1 distribution around the alternatively spliced exons of these genes in Psip1 null cells. We propose that Psip1/p52, through its binding to both chromatin and splicing factors, might act to modulate splicing.

Adoption of alternative habitats by a threatened, "obligate" forest-dwelling bat in a fragmented landscape

While they are among the most ecologically important animals within forest ecosystems, little is known about how bats respond to habitat loss and fragmentation. The threatened lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata), considered to be an obligate deep-forest species, is one of only 2 extant land mammals endemic to New Zealand; it plays a number of important roles within native forests, including pollination and seed dispersal, and rarely occurs in modified forests. We used radiotelemetry to study the movements, roosting behavior, and habitat use of M. tuberculata within a fragmented landscape comprised of 3 main habitat types: open space (harvested forest and pastoral land), native forests, and exotic pine plantations. We found that the bats had smaller home-range areas and travelled shorter nightly distances than populations investigated previously from contiguous native forest. Furthermore, M. tuberculata occupied all 3 habitat types, with native forest being preferred overall. However, individual variation in habitat selection was high, with some bats preferring exotic plantation and open space over native forest. Roosting patterns were similar to those previously observed in contiguous forest; individual bats often switched between communal and solitary roosts. Our findings indicate that M. tuberculata exhibit some degree of behavioral plasticity that allows them to adapt to different landscape mosaics and exploit alternative habitats. To our knowledge, this is the first such documentation of plasticity in habitat use for a bat species believed to be an obligate forest-dweller.

Director independence or decision bias? An investigation of alternative sources of agency costs in board decision making

Research into boards traditionally focuses on independent monitoring of management, with studies focused on the effect of board independence on firm performance. This thesis aims to broaden the research tradition by consolidating prior research and investigating how agents may circumvent independent monitoring. Meta-analysis of previous board independence-firm performance studies indicated no systematic relationship between board independence and firm performance. Next, a series of experiments demonstrated that the presentation of recommendations to directors may bias decision making irrespective of other information presented and the independence of the decision maker. Together, results suggest that independence may be less important than the agent's motivation to misdirect the monitoring process.

Expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan: A violation of principle of non-refoulement

This article addresses the need of an implementation mechanism for the protection of refugees’ rights. However, it is contended that the principle forms part of Customary International Law, under which it is binding on all states irrespective of whether or not they are parties to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees 1951 or its Protocol 1967. Since last decade, U.S and its allies have been fighting to curve terrorism which has raised many issues such as human rights violation, deportation, expulsion, extradition, rendition and many more. Pakistan has played a very critical role in War against Terrorism, particularly in reference of war in Afghanistan. Particular concern of this article is the violation of refugees’ rights in Pakistan in 2008 and 2010. This article would highlight the legislation regarding non-expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan to a territory where they have well founded fear of persecution. Article is divided into three parts, the first one deals with “Principle of Non-Refoulement”, the second one deals with “exceptions to the principle” whereas the last one discusses the violation of the very principle in Pakistan with reference to Afghan refugees.

Experimental studies on comparison of microwave curing and thermal curing of epoxy resins used for alternative mould materials

In this present work attempts have been made to study the glass transition temperature of alternative mould materials by using both microwave heating and conventional oven heating. In this present work three epoxy resins, namely R2512, R2515 and R2516, which are commonly used for making injection moulds have been used in combination with two hardeners H2403 and H2409. The magnetron microwave generator used in this research is operating at a frequency of 2.45 GHz with a hollow rectangular waveguide. In order to distinguish the effects between the microwave and conventional heating, a number of experiments were performed to test their mechanical properties such as tensile and flexural strengths. Additionally, differential scanning calorimeter technique was implemented to measure the glass transition temperature on both microwave and conventional heating. This study provided necessary evidences to establish that microwave heated mould materials resulted with higher glass transition temperature than the conventional heating. Finally, attempts were also made to study the microstructure of microwave-cured materials by using a scanning electron microscope in order to analyze the morphology of cured specimens.

Alternative analytical methods for the identification of cancer-related symptom clusters

Advances in symptom management strategies through a better understanding of cancer symptom clusters depend on the identification of symptom clusters that are valid and reliable. The purpose of this exploratory research was to investigate alternative analytical approaches to identify symptom clusters for patients with cancer, using readily accessible statistical methods, and to justify which methods of identification may be appropriate for this context. Three studies were undertaken: (1) a systematic review of the literature, to identify analytical methods commonly used for symptom cluster identification for cancer patients; (2) a secondary data analysis to identify symptom clusters and compare alternative methods, as a guide to best practice approaches in cross-sectional studies; and (3) a secondary data analysis to investigate the stability of symptom clusters over time. The systematic literature review identified, in 10 years prior to March 2007, 13 cross-sectional studies implementing multivariate methods to identify cancer related symptom clusters. The methods commonly used to group symptoms were exploratory factor analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal components analysis. Common factor analysis methods were recommended as the best practice cross-sectional methods for cancer symptom cluster identification. A comparison of alternative common factor analysis methods was conducted, in a secondary analysis of a sample of 219 ambulatory cancer patients with mixed diagnoses, assessed within one month of commencing chemotherapy treatment. Principal axis factoring, unweighted least squares and image factor analysis identified five consistent symptom clusters, based on patient self-reported distress ratings of 42 physical symptoms. Extraction of an additional cluster was necessary when using alpha factor analysis to determine clinically relevant symptom clusters. The recommended approaches for symptom cluster identification using nonmultivariate normal data were: principal axis factoring or unweighted least squares for factor extraction, followed by oblique rotation; and use of the scree plot and Minimum Average Partial procedure to determine the number of factors. In contrast to other studies which typically interpret pattern coefficients alone, in these studies symptom clusters were determined on the basis of structure coefficients. This approach was adopted for the stability of the results as structure coefficients are correlations between factors and symptoms unaffected by the correlations between factors. Symptoms could be associated with multiple clusters as a foundation for investigating potential interventions. The stability of these five symptom clusters was investigated in separate common factor analyses, 6 and 12 months after chemotherapy commenced. Five qualitatively consistent symptom clusters were identified over time (Musculoskeletal-discomforts/lethargy, Oral-discomforts, Gastrointestinaldiscomforts, Vasomotor-symptoms, Gastrointestinal-toxicities), but at 12 months two additional clusters were determined (Lethargy and Gastrointestinal/digestive symptoms). Future studies should include physical, psychological, and cognitive symptoms. Further investigation of the identified symptom clusters is required for validation, to examine causality, and potentially to suggest interventions for symptom management. Future studies should use longitudinal analyses to investigate change in symptom clusters, the influence of patient related factors, and the impact on outcomes (e.g., daily functioning) over time.

Alternative futures of globalisation a socio-ecological study of the world social forum process

Inspired by the initial World Social Forum in Porto Alegre Brazil, over the past decade over 200 local and regional social forums have been held, on five continents. This study has examined the nature of this broader social forum process, in particular as an aspect of the movement for 'another globalisation'. I discuss both the discourses for 'another world', as well as the development of an Alternative Globalisation Movement. As an action research study, the research took place within a variety of groups and networks. The thesis provides six accounts of groups and people striving and struggling for 'another world'. I provide a macro account of the invention and innovation of the World Social Forum. A grassroots film-makers collective provides a window into media. A local social forum opens up the radical diversity of actors. An activist exchange circle sheds light on strategic aspects of alternative globalisation. An educational initiative provides a window into transformations in pedagogy. And a situational account (of the G20 meeting in Melbourne in 2006) provides an overview of the variety of metanetworks that converge to voice demands for global justice and sustainability. In particular, this study has sought to shed light on how, within this process, groups and communities develop 'agency', a capacity to respond to the global challenges they / we face. And as part of this question, I have also explored how alternatives futures are developed and conceived, with a re-cognition of the importance of histories and geo-political (or 'eco-political') structures as contexts. I argue the World Social Forum Process is prefigurative, as an interactional process where many social alternatives are conceived, supported, developed and innovated into the world. And I argue this innovation process is meta-formative, where convergences of diverse actors comprise ‘social ecologies of alternatives’ which lead to opportunities for dynamic collaboration and partnership.

Defending the sanctity of life principle : a reply to John Keown

This article is a response to Professor Keown’s criticism of my paper “Finding a Way Through the Ethical and Legal Maze: Withdrawal of Medical Treatment and Euthanasia” (2005) 13 (3) Medical Law Review 357. The article takes up and responds to a number of criticisms raised by Keown in an attempt to further the debate concerning the moral and legal status of withdrawing life-sustaining measures, its distinction from euthanasia, and the implications of the lawfulness of withdrawal for the principle of the sanctity of life.

The power of historical causal components involved in engaging at risk youth at three alternative schools

This article addresses the causal powers associated with the social phenomena of alternative schooling for youth at risk. It stems from a doctoral thesis, Alternative Schooling Programs for At Risk Youth – Three Case Studies which addresses wider issues integral to alternative schooling: youth at risk, alternative schooling models, and literacy. This article explores one aspect of alternative schooling: the historical causal factors involved in the establishment and continuance of three alternative case study models in Queensland, Australia. By adhering to Bhaskar’s transformational model of social activity (TMSA) , social structures and individuals will be analytically distinguished to uncover their separate causal powers and how these have effected the establishment and continuance of three alternative schools.

Alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation : a systematic review

The traditional hospital-based model of cardiac rehabilitation faces substantial challenges, such as cost and accessibility. These challenges have led to the development of alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation in recent years. The aim of this study was to identify and critique evidence for the effectiveness of these alternative models. A total of 22 databases were searched to identify quantitative studies or systematic reviews of quantitative studies regarding the effectiveness of alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation. Included studies were appraised using a Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool and the National Health and Medical Research Council's designations for Level of Evidence. The 83 included articles described interventions in the following broad categories of alternative models of care: multifactorial individualized telehealth, internet based, telehealth focused on exercise, telehealth focused on recovery, community- or home-based, and complementary therapies. Multifactorial individualized telehealth and community- or home-based cardiac rehabilitation are effective alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation, as they have produced similar reductions in cardiovascular disease risk factors compared with hospital-based programmes. While further research is required to address the paucity of data available regarding the effectiveness of alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation in rural, remote, and culturally and linguistically diverse populations, our review indicates there is no need to rely on hospital-based strategies alone to deliver effective cardiac rehabilitation. Local healthcare systems should strive to integrate alternative models of cardiac rehabilitation, such as brief telehealth interventions tailored to individual's risk factor profiles as well as community- or home-based programmes, in order to ensure there are choices available for patients that best fit their needs, risk factor profile, and preferences.

Review : alternative splicing (AS) of genes as an approach for generating protein complexity

Prior to the completion of the human genome project, the human genome was thought to have a greater number of genes as it seemed structurally and functionally more complex than other simpler organisms. This along with the belief of “one gene, one protein”, were demonstrated to be incorrect. The inequality in the ratio of gene to protein formation gave rise to the theory of alternative splicing (AS). AS is a mechanism by which one gene gives rise to multiple protein products. Numerous databases and online bioinformatic tools are available for the detection and analysis of AS. Bioinformatics provides an important approach to study mRNA and protein diversity by various tools such as expressed sequence tag (EST) sequences obtained from completely processed mRNA. Microarrays and deep sequencing approaches also aid in the detection of splicing events. Initially it was postulated that AS occurred only in about 5%; of all genes but was later found to be more abundant. Using bioinformatic approaches, the level of AS in human genes was found to be fairly high with 35-59%; of genes having at least one AS form. Our ability to determine and predict AS is important as disorders in splicing patterns may lead to abnormal splice variants resulting in genetic diseases. In addition, the diversity of proteins produced by AS poses a challenge for successful drug discovery and therefore a greater understanding of AS would be beneficial.

FixVegas : facilitating multi-directional communication between government officials and citizens to support urban planning in the city of Brisbane

The goal of this project was to develop a mobile application for the iOS platform, that would support the partner of this project, the Brisbane City Council, in stronger engage citizens in participating in urban planning and development projects. The resulting application is an extended version of FixVegas, a system that allows citizens to report maintenance request to the Brisbane City Council through their smartphone. The new version of the system makes all incoming requests publicly available within the application, allows users to support, comment or disapprove of these. As an addition, the concept of the idea has been introduced. Citizens can submit suggestions for improving the city to the municipality, discuss them with other fellow citizens and, ideally, also with Council representatives. The city officials as well are provided with the ability of publishing development project as an idea and let citizens deliberate it. This way, bidirectional communication between these two parties is created. A web interface complements the iPhone application. The system has been developed after the principle of User Centered Design, by assessing user needs, creating and evaluating prototypes and conducting a user study. The study showed that FixVegas2 has been perceived as an enhancement compared to the previous version, and that the idea concept has been received on a positive note. Indepth questions, such as the influence the system could have on community dynamics or the public participation in urban planning projects could only hardly investigated. However, these findings can be achieved by the alternative study designs that have been proposed.

Literacies on the Web : Co-Production of Literary Texts on Fan Fiction Sites

In this chapter the authors discuss and informal learning settings such as fan fiction sites and their relations to teaching and learning within formal learning settings. Young people today spend a lot of time with social media built on user generated content. These media are often characterized by participatory culture which offers a good environment for developing skills and identity work. In this chapter the authors problematize fan fiction sites as informal learning settings where the possibilities to learn are powerful and significant. They also discuss the learning processes connected to the development of literacies. Here the rhetoric principle of “imitatio” plays a vital part as well as the co-production of texts on the sites, strongly supported by the beta reader and the power of positive feedback. They also display that some fans, through the online publication of fan fiction, are able to develop their craft in a way which previously have been impossible.

An analysis of ranking principles and retrieval strategies

The assumptions underlying the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP) have led to a number of alternative approaches that cater or compensate for the PRP’s limitations. All alternatives deviate from the PRP by incorporating dependencies. This results in a re-ranking that promotes or demotes documents depending upon their relationship with the documents that have been already ranked. In this paper, we compare and contrast the behaviour of state-of-the-art ranking strategies and principles. To do so, we tease out analytical relationships between the ranking approaches and we investigate the document kinematics to visualise the effects of the different approaches on document ranking.