A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Adaptive and phase transition behavior in performance of discrete multi-articular actions by degenerate neurobiological systems

The identification of attractors is one of the key tasks in studies of neurobiological coordination from a dynamical systems perspective, with a considerable body of literature resulting from this task. However, with regards to typical movement models investigated, the overwhelming majority of actions studied previously belong to the class of continuous, rhythmical movements. In contrast, very few studies have investigated coordination of discrete movements, particularly multi-articular discrete movements. In the present study, we investigated phase transition behavior in a basketball throwing task where participants were instructed to shoot at the basket from different distances. Adopting the ubiquitous scaling paradigm, throwing distance was manipulated as a candidate control parameter. Using a cluster analysis approach, clear phase transitions between different movement patterns were observed in performance of only two of eight participants. The remaining participants used a single movement pattern and varied it according to throwing distance, thereby exhibiting hysteresis effects. Results suggested that, in movement models involving many biomechanical degrees of freedom in degenerate systems, greater movement variation across individuals is available for exploitation. This observation stands in contrast to movement variation typically observed in studies using more constrained bi-manual movement models. This degenerate system behavior provides new insights and poses fresh challenges to the dynamical systems theoretical approach, requiring further research beyond conventional movement models.

Wrapped fragments : Drapery, the eighteenth century portrait bust and the male subject

The depiction of drapery (generalised cloth as opposed to clothing) is a well-established convention of Neo-Classical sculpture and is often downplayed by art historians as of purely rhetorical value. It can be argued however that sculpted drapery has served a spectrum of expressive ends, the variety and complexity of which are well illustrated by a study of its use in portrait sculpture. For the Neo-Classical portrait bust, drapery had substantial iconographic and political meaning, signifying the new Enlightenment notions of masculine authority. Within the portrait bust, drapery also served highly strategic aesthetic purposes, alleviating the abruptness of the truncated format and the compromising visual consequences of the “cropped” body. With reference to Joseph Nollekens’ portraits of English statesman Charles James Fox and the author’s own sculptural practice, this paper analyses the Neo-Classical use of drapery to propose that rendered fabric, far from mere stylistic flourish, is a highly charged visual signifier with much scope for exploration in contemporary sculptural practice.

Unsettling portrait of family strife

Review of 'The Wishing Well', Queensland Theatre Company, published in The Australian, 30 March 2009.

Porous PLGA microspheres effectively loaded with BSA protein by electrospraying combined with phase separation in liquid nitrogen

Polymer microspheres loaded with bioactive particles, biomolecules, proteins, and/or growth factors play important roles in tissue engineering, drug delivery, and cell therapy. The conventional double emulsion method and a new method of electrospraying into liquid nitrogen were used to prepare bovine serum albumin (BAS)-loaded poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) porous microspheres. The particle size, the surface morphology and the internal porous structure of the microspheres were observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The loading efficiency, the encapsulation efficiency, and the release profile of the BSA-loaded PLGA microspheres were measured and studied. It was shown that the microspheres from double emulsion had smaller particle sizes (3-50 m), a less porous structure, a poor loading efficiency (5.2 %), and a poor encapsulation efficiency (43.5%). However, the microspheres from the electrospraying into liquid nitrogen had larger particle sizes (400-600 m), a highly porous structure, a high loading efficiency (12.2%), and a high encapsulation efficiency (93.8%). Thus the combination of electrospraying with freezing in liquid nitrogen and subsequent freeze drying represented a suitable way to produce polymer microspheres for effective loading and sustained release of proteins.

Electromyographic activity in lower limb muscles is temporally associated with the slow phase of oxygen uptake during cycling

Although the "slow" phase of pulmonary oxygen uptake (Vo2) appears to represent energetic processes in contracting muscle, electromyographic evidence tends not to support this. The present study assessed normalized integrated electromyographic (NIEMG) activity in eight muscles that act about the hip, knee and ankle during 8 min of moderate (ventilatory threshold) cycling in six male cyclists. (Vo2) was measured breath by breath during four repeated trials at each of the two intensities. Moderate and very heavy exercise followed a 4-min period of light exercise (50 W). During moderate exercise the slow (Vo2) phase was absent and NIEMG in all muscles did not increase after the first minute of exercise. During very heavy exercise, the slow phase emerged (time delay=58 ± 16 s) and increased progressively (time constant=120 ± 35 s) to an amplitude (0.83 ± 0.16 L/min) that was approximately 21% of the total (Vo2) response. This slow (Vo2) phase coincided with a significant increase in NIEMG in most muscles, and differences in NIEMG activities between the two intensities revealed "slow" muscle activation profiles that differed between muscles in terms of the onset, amplitude and shape of these profiles. This supports the hypothesis that the slow (Vo2) phase is a function of these different slow muscle activation profiles.

The land use and public transport accessibility index : phase two final report

The Urban Research Program (URP) was established in 2003 as strategic research and community engagement initiative of Griffith University. The strategic foci of the Urban Research Program are research and advocacy in an urban regional context. The Urban Research Program seeks to improve understanding of, and develop innovative responses to Australia's urban challenges and opportunities by providing training assistance. The authors aim to make the results of their research and advocacy work available as freely and widely as possible.

Grafted fluoropolymers as supports for solid-phase organic chemistry : preparation and characterization

Solid-phase organic chemistry has rapidly expanded in the last decade, and, as a consequence, so has the need for the development of supports that can withstand the extreme conditions required to facilitate some reactions. The authors here prepare a thermally stable, grafted fluoropolymer support (see Figure for an example) in three solvents, and found that the penetration of the graft was greatest in dichloromethane.