Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Levels of cardiac knowledge and cardiopulmonary resuscitation training among older people in Queensland

Objectives: The current study was conducted to determine levels of cardiac knowledge and cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training in older people in Queensland, Australia.---------- Methods: A telephone survey of 4490 Queensland adults examined respondents’ knowledge of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors, knowledge of heart attack symptoms, knowledge of the local emergency telephone number, as well as respondents’ rates and recency of training in CPR.---------- Results: Older participants, aged 60 years and over, were approximately one and a half times more likely than the 30–39 year-old reference group to have limited knowledge of heart disease risk factors (OR = 1.53), and low knowledge of heart attack symptoms (OR = 1.60). Knowledge of the local emergency telephone number also decreased with age. Older participants had significantly lower rates of training in CPR, with almost three quarters (71.7%) reporting that they had never been trained. Older people who had completed CPR training were significantly less likely to have done so recently.---------- Conclusions: Cardiac knowledge levels and CPR training rates in older Queensland persons were lower than those found in the younger population.

Older patients request more information : a survey of use of written patient education materials in general practice

Objectives: To determine GPs' reported use of written education materials with older patients and older patients' reported receipt of these materials. To determine GPs' and older patients' perceptions of written materials.---------- Method: Using self-report questionnaires, two populations were surveyed; a randomised sample of 50 GPs (29 males and 21 females) practising in Brisbane's southern suburbs and a convenience sample of 188 older community-dwelling people (aged over 64 years).----------- Results: All GPs reported using written materials with patients, although 28% had not given any to the Last 10 patients. This increased to 46% when patients were older. Twenty percent of patients wanted more written information from their GP, while some GPs believed that older patients preferred verbal information and gave out written information only when they perceived patient interest. All GPs reported giving written materials at the time of consultation and over two thirds discussed the content with patients. Just over 50% of patients reported receiving written information from GPs in the Last six months and only hall of these again discussed it directly with their GP. Overall, patients were more positive than GPs about the value of written education materials.---------- Conclusions: Older patients' desire for written information may be better met if they are more assertive in requesting this of GPs and GPs may better serve their patients' needs if they make written information more readily available to them. Better access to materials and more financial incentives to give them out might also increase GPs' use of written materials.

Poor functional health literacy : the silent disability for older people

In this information age, people are confronted by verbal, visual and written information. This is especially important in the health field, where information is needed to follow directions, understand prescriptions and undertake preventive behaviours. If provided in written form, much of this information may be inaccessible to people who cannot adequately read. Although poor literacy skills affect all groups in the population, older adults with fewer years of education seem to be particularly disadvantaged by an increasing reliance on written communication of health information. With older age comes a higher risk of illness and disability and a greater potential need to access the health system. As a result, poor literacy skills of older individuals may directly impact their health status. This paper explores the link between functional literacy and health, particularly for the older population, provides strategies to practitioners for the management of this problem, and suggests research initiatives in this area.

Investigating Familiarity in Older Adults to Facilitate Intuitive Interaction

This paper discusses how intuitive interaction is a possible way to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of interaction with older adults. It provides insights into existing research on intuitive interaction, and the role of prior experience and familiarity in intuition. An experiment is discussed which investigates differences in familiarity between younger and older adults. A comprehensive coding system has been developed to help analyse the data collected. This research is currently in progress.

User behaviours and intentions with digital news media in Australia

This paper summarises findings from a survey of user behaviors and intentions towards digital media and information in Australia. It was undertaken in the first quarter of 2009 by the Queensland University of Technology Creative Industries Faculty and was funded by the Smart Services Cooperative Research Centre. The survey targeted users of 2 news and information sites that are available online only. Findings highlighted differences between the 18-24 year age segment and older users. Social networks (specifically friends and family) were rated as the least reliable, relevant and accurate sources of news. Other findings indicate online news sources that are associated with an established newspaper are highly valued as reliable, relevant and accurate news sources by most people. While most people prefer to use online news sources, there is a great deal of variation in the ways in which people actually use online news. From a total of 524 respondents to the survey it was possible to identify three main types of online news consumers: convenience, loyal and customising users.

Woodturning for older learners : a real 'turn on'

The research reported in this study concerns older adults from Australia who voluntarily chose to learn the craft of woodturning. Semi-structured interviews and a survey questionnaire were distributed to members of a woodturning club to explore their motivations and the processes by which they learned how to woodturn. The findings indicated that participants’ motivation could be construed as both intrinsic and extrinsic. They used seven approaches to learning – structured courses, instruction from convenors, modelling/watching/demonstrations, guided practice and monitoring by convenors, trial and error with practice, advice and help from peers and reading. Finally, the positive climate of the organisation was found to be particularly important to the older learners.

End-of-life decision making for older people

This chapter deals with the increasing issues surrounding end-of-life decision making. As the life trajectory for older people changes, the need for open discussion about their health problems and treatment becomes more critical. Acceptance of the ageing process itself is often not easy so the matter of a good death is even more distressing for some people to consider. The vignette provides an excellent discussion on the need for open dialogue with the older person and their families, whether they are acutely ill or have chronic health problems. How a person wishes to be treated when quality of life is not going to improve, no matter what interventions are put in place, seems essential for person-centred care. The issue of competency is one that must be determined before any decision is made by any person involved in care.

Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Redundancy in interface design and its impact on intuitive use of a product in older users

Many older adults have difficulty using modern consumer products due to their complexity both in terms of functionality and interface design. It has been observed that older people also have more problems learning new systems. It was hypothesised that designing technological products that are more intuitive for older people to use can solve this problem. An intuitive interface allows a user’s to employ prior knowledge, thus minimizing the learning needed for effective interaction. This paper discusses an experiment investigating the effectiveness of redundancy in interface design. The primary objective of this experiment was to find out if using more than one modality for a product’s interface improves the speed and intuitiveness of interactions for older adults. Preliminary analysis showed strong correlation between technology familiarity and time on tasks, but redundancy in interface design improved speed and accuracy of use only for participants with moderate to high technology familiarity.

Green Marketing Communities and blogs : mapping consumer’s attitudes for future sustainable marketing

The last three decades have seen consumers’ environmental consciousness grow as the environment has moved to a mainstream issue. Results from our study of green marketing blog site comments in the first half of 2009 finds thirteen prominent concepts: carbon, consumers, global and energy were the largest themes, while crisis, power, people, water, fuel, product, work, time, water, organic, content and interest were the others. However sub issues were also identified, as the driving factor of this information is coming from consumer led social networks. While marketers hold some power, consumers are the real key factor to possess influence for change. They want to drive change and importantly, they have the power. Power to the people.

Recruiting older adults to health research studies : a systematic review

Objective: To provide a systematic review of papers comparing the effectiveness of different strategies to recruit older adults (aged 50 years and over) to participate in health research studies, to guide successful recruitment in future research. Methods: Four major databases were searched for papers published between 1995 and 2008 with: target group aged 50 years or over; participants allocated to receive one of two or more recruitment strategies; and an outcome measure of response rate or enrolment in study. Results: Twelve papers were included in the review. Conclusion: For postal questionnaires, recruitment strategies used with older adults had comparable outcomes to those used to recruit from the general population. For other types of studies, strategies involving face-to-face contact may be more effective than indirect methods, but this needs to be balanced against feasibility. Overall, little evidence on the topic exists and more rigorous investigation is necessary.

The on-road difficulties of older drivers and their relationship with self-reported motor vehicle crashes

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the driving difficulties of older adults using a detailed assessment of driving performance and to link this with self-reported retrospective and prospective crashes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: On-road driving assessment. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred sixty-seven community-living adults aged 70 to 88 randomly recruited through the electoral roll. MEASUREMENTS: Performance on a standardized measure of driving performance. RESULTS: Lane positioning, approach, and blind spot monitoring were the most common error types, and errors occurred most frequently in situations involving merging and maneuvering. Drivers reporting more retrospective or prospective crashes made significantly more driving errors. Driver instructor interventions during self-navigation (where the instructor had to brake or take control of the steering to avoid an accident) were significantly associated with higher retrospective and prospective crashes; every instructor intervention almost doubled prospective crash risk. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that on-road driving assessment provides useful information on older driver difficulties, with the self-directed component providing the most valuable information.

In-vehicle technology functional requirements for older drivers

Older drivers represent the fastest growing segment of the road user population. Cognitive and physiological capabilities diminishes with ages. The design of future in-vehicle interfaces have to take into account older drivers' needs and capabilities. Older drivers have different capabilities which impact on their driving patterns and subsequently on road crash patterns. New in-vehicle technology could improve safety, comfort and maintain elderly people's mobility for longer. Existing research has focused on the ergonomic and Human Machine Interface (HMI) aspects of in-vehicle technology to assist the elderly. However there is a lack of comprehensive research on identifying the most relevant technology and associated functionalities that could improve older drivers' road safety. To identify future research priorities for older drivers, this paper presents: (i) a review of age related functional impairments, (ii) a brief description of some key characteristics of older driver crashes and (iii) a conceptualisation of the most relevant technology interventions based on traffic psychology theory and crash data.

Drivers of adoption for successive generation of high-tech products

To understand the diffusion of high technology products such as PCs, digital cameras and DVD players it is necessary to consider the dynamics of successive generations of technology. From the consumer’s perspective, these technology changes may manifest themselves as either a new generation product substituting for the old (for instance digital cameras) or as multiple generations of a single product (for example PCs). To date, research has been confined to aggregate level sales models. These models consider the demand relationship between one generation of a product and a successor generation. However, they do not give insights into the disaggregate-level decisions by individual households – whether to adopt the newer generation, and if so, when. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large scale empirical study to collect household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in contrast to traditional analysis in diffusion research that conceptualizes technology substitution as an “adoption of innovation” type process, we propose that from a consumer’s perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing generation I product with generation II). Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear “substitutes” for the earlier generation (e.g. PCs Pentium I to II to III ). More commonly the new generation II technology is a “partial substitute” for existing generation I technology (e.g. DVD players and VCRs). Some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Moreover, drawing on adoption theory consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic for adoption timing of new products. Hence, we hypothesize consumer innovativeness to influence the timing of both additional and substitute generation II purchases but to have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases. We further propose that substitute generation II purchases act partially as a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Thus, we hypothesize that households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Methods We employ Cox hazard modeling to study factors influencing the timing of a household’s adoption of generation II products. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include size and income of household, age and education of decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases and substitute purchases. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD players and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks. Yet, also as hypothesized, there was no influence on additional purchases. This implies that there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Therefore marketers of high technology products can utilize data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.