Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Elevated plasma fibronectin levels associated with venous thromboembolism

Elevated plasma fibronectin levels occur in various clinical states including arterial disease. Increasing evidence suggests that atherothrombosis and venous thromboembolism (VTE) share common risk factors. To assess the hypothesis that high plasma fibronectin levels are associated with VTE, we compared plasma fibronectin levels in the Scripps Venous Thrombosis Registry for 113 VTE cases vs. age and sex matched controls. VTE cases had significantly higher mean fibronectin concentration compared to controls (127% vs. 103%, p<0.0001); the difference was greater for idiopathic VTE cases compared to secondary VTE cases (133% vs. 120%, respectively). Using a cut-off of >90% of the control values, the odds ratio (OR) for association of VTE for fibronectin plasma levels above the 90th percentile were 9.37 (95% CI 2.73-32.2; p<0.001) and this OR remained significant after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index (BMI), factor V Leiden and prothrombin nt20210A (OR 7.60, 95% CI 2.14-27.0; p=0.002). In particular, the OR was statistically significant for idiopathic VTE before and after these statistical adjustments. For the total male cohort, the OR was significant before and after statistical adjustments and was not significant for the total female cohort. In summary, our results suggest that elevated plasma fibronectin levels are associated with VTE especially in males, and extend the potential association between biomarkers and risk factors for arterial atherothrombosis and VTE. © 2008 Schattauer GmbH.

Relationship between physical activity and stiff or painful joints in mid-aged women and older women: a 3-year prospective study

This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.

Prospective association between physical activity and falls in community-dwelling older women

Abstract Objective: To explore associations between physical activity and risk of falls and broken or fractured bones in community-dwelling older women. Design, setting and participants: This was a prospective observational survey with 3- and 6-year follow-ups. The sample included 8562 healthy, community-dwelling women, aged 70-75 years in 1996, who completed surveys as participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Outcomes were reports of a fall to the ground, injury from a fall, and broken or fractured bones in 1999 and 2002. The main predictor variable was physical activity level in 1996, categorized based on weekly frequency as none/very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Covariates were demographic and health-related variables. Logistic regression models were computed separately for each outcome in 1999 and 2002. Main results: In multivariable models, very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of a fall in 1999 (odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.93) and in 2002 (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92). High/very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of broken or fractured bones in 2002 (odds ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.96). No significant association was found between physical activity and injury from a fall. Conclusions: The results suggest that at least daily moderate to vigorous physical activity is required for the primary prevention of falls to the ground and broken or fractured bones in women aged 70-75 years.

Quality of life and genetics in men with prostate cancer

As family history has been established as a risk factor for prostate cancer, attempts have been made to isolate predisposing genetic variants that are related to hereditary prostate cancer. With many genetic variants still to be identified and investigated, it is not yet possible to fully understand the impact of genetic variants on prostate cancer development. The high survival rates among men with prostate cancer have meant that other issues, such as quality of life (QoL), have also become important. Through their effect on a person’s health, a range of inherited genetic variants may potentially influence QoL in men with prostate cancer, even prior to treatment. Until now, limited research has been conducted on the relationship between genetics and QoL. Thus, this study contributes to an emerging field by aiming to identify certain genetic variants related to the QoL found in men with prostate cancer. It is hoped that this study may lead to future research that will identify men who have an increased risk of a poor QoL following prostate cancer treatment, which will aid in developing treatments that are individually tailored to support them. Previous studies have established that genetic variants of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) and Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) may play a role in prostate cancer development. VEGF and IGF-1 have also been reported to be associated with QoL in people with ovarian cancer and colorectal cancer, respectively. This study completed a series of secondary analyses using two major data-sets (from 850 men newly diagnosed with prostate cancer, and approximately 550 men from the general Queensland population), in which genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 were investigated for associations with prostate cancer susceptibility and QoL. The first aim of this research was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-I gene for an association with the risk of prostate cancer. It was found that one IGF-1 genetic variant (rs35765) had a statistically significant association with prostate cancer (p = 0.04), and one VEGF genetic variant (rs2146323) had a statistically significant association with advanced prostate cancer (p = 0.02). The estimates suggest that carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs35765 may have a reduced risk of developing prostate cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.55, 0.95, OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.26, 1.39, respectively). Meanwhile, carriers of the CA and AA genotype for rs2146323 may be at increased risk of advanced prostate cancer, which was determined by a Gleason score of above 7 (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.12, 2.63, OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.08, 3.34, respectively). Utilising the widely used short-form health survey, the SF-36v2, the second aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between prostate cancer and QoL prior to treatment. Assessing QoL at this time-point was important as little research has been conducted to evaluate if prostate cancer affects QoL regardless of treatment. The analyses found that mean SF-36v2 scale scores related to physical health were higher by at least 0.3 Standard Deviations (SD) among men with prostate cancer than the general population comparison group. This difference was considered clinically significant (defined by group differences in mean SF-36v2 scores by at least 0.3 SD). These differences were also statistically significant (p<0.05). Mean QoL scale scores related to mental health were similar between men with prostate cancer and those from the general population comparison group. The third aim of this study was to investigate genetic variants in the VEGF and IGF-1 gene for an association with QoL in prostate cancer patients prior to their treatment. It was essential to evaluate these relationships prior to treatment, before the involvement of these genes was potentially interrupted by treatment. The analyses found that some genetic variants had a small clinically significant association (0.3 SD) to some QoL domains experienced by these men. However, most relationships were not statistically significant (p>0.05). Most of the associations found identified that a small sub-group of men with prostate cancer (approximately 2%) reported, on average, a slightly better QoL than the majority of the prostate cancer patients. The fourth aim of this research was to investigate whether associations between genetic variants in VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL were specific to men with prostate cancer, or were also applicable to the general male population. It was found that twenty out of one-hundred relationships between the genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL health-measures and scales examined differed between these groups. In the majority of the relationships involving VEGF SNPs that differed, a clinically significant difference (0.3 or more SD) between mean scores among the genotype groups in prostate cancer patients was found, while mean scores among men from the general-population comparison group were similar. For example, prostate cancer participants who carried at least one T allele (CT or TT genotype) for rs3024994 had a clinically significant higher (0.3 SD) mean QoL score in terms of the role-physical scale, than participants who carried the CC genotype. This was not seen among men from the general population sample, as the mean score was similar between genotype groups. The opposite was seen in regards to the IGF-1 SNPs examined. Overall, these relationships were not considered to directly impact on the clinical options for men with prostate cancer. As this study utilised secondary data from two separate studies, there are a number of important limitations that should be acknowledged including issues of multiple comparisons, power, and missing or unavailable data. It is recommended that this study be replicated as a better-designed study that takes greater consideration of the many factors involved in prostate cancer and QoL. Investigation into other genetic variants of VEGF or IGF-1 is also warranted, as is consideration of other genes and their relationship with QoL. Through identifying certain genetic variants that have a modest association to prostate cancer, this project adds to the knowledge surrounding VEGF and IGF-1 and their role in prostate cancer susceptibility. Importantly, this project has also introduced the potential role genetics plays in QoL, through investigating the relationships between genetic variants of VEGF and IGF-1 and QoL.

The relationship between abdominal obesity and depression in the general population : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Obesity has been widely regarded as a public health concern because of its adverse impact on individuals’ health. Systematic reviews have been published in examining the effect of obesity on depression, but with major emphasis on general obesity as measured by the body mass index. Despite a stronger effect of abdominal obesity on individuals’ physical health outcomes, to our best knowledge, no systematic review was undertaken with regard to the relationship between abdominal obesity and depression. This paper reports the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies examining the relationship between abdominal obesity and depression in a general population. Multiple electronic databases were searched until the end of September 2009. 15 articles were systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed. The analysis showed that the odds ratio of having depression for individuals with abdominal obesity was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.22–1.57) as compared to those who are not obese. Furthermore, it was found that this relationship did not vary with potential confounders including gender, age, measurement of depression and abdominal obesity, and study quality.

Body composition and its relationship to metabolic risk factors in Asian children

Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The body mass index (BMI) is the most common index used to define obesity. The universal application of the same BMI classification across different ethnic groups is being challenged due to the inability of the index to differentiate fat mass (FM) and fat�]free mass (FFM) and the recognized ethnic differences in body composition. A better understanding of the body composition of Asian children from different backgrounds would help to better understand the obesity�]related health risks of people in this region. Moreover, the limitations of the BMI underscore the necessity to use where possible, more accurate measures of body fat assessment in research and clinical settings in addition to BMI, particularly in relation to the monitoring of prevention and treatment efforts. The aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in the relationship between BMI and percent body fat (%BF) in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. A total of 1039 children aged 8�]10 y were recruited using a non�]random purposive sampling approach aiming to encompass a wide BMI range from the five countries. Percent body fat (%BF) was determined using the deuterium dilution technique to quantify total body water (TBW) and subsequently derive proportions of FM and FFM. The study highlighted the sex and ethnic differences between BMI and %BF in Asian children from different countries. Girls had approximately 4.0% higher %BF compared with boys at a given BMI. Filipino boys tended to have a lower %BF than their Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai counterparts at the same age and BMI level (corrected mean %BF was 25.7�}0.8%, 27.4�}0.4%, 27.1�}0.6%, 27.7�}0.5%, 28.1�}0.5% for Filipino, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai boys, respectively), although they differed significantly from Thai and Malay boys. Thai girls had approximately 2.0% higher %BF values than Chinese, Lebanese, Filipino and Malay counterparts (however no significant difference was seen among the four ethnic groups) at a given BMI (corrected mean %BF was 31.1�}0.5%, 28.6�}0.4%, 29.2�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.5% for Thai, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Filipino girls, respectively). However, the ethnic difference in BMI�]%BF relationship varied by BMI. Compared with Caucasians, Asian children had a BMI 3�]6 units lower for a given %BF. More than one third of obese Asian children in the study were not identified using the WHO classification and more than half were not identified using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) classification. However, use of the Chinese classification increased the sensitivity by 19.7%, 18.1%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 11.3% for Chinese, Lebanese, Malay, Filipino and Thai girls, respectively. A further aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in body fat distribution in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Thailand. The skin fold thicknesses, height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and total adiposity (as determined by deuterium dilution technique) of 922 children from the four countries was assessed. Chinese boys and girls had a similar trunk�]to�]extremity skin fold thickness ratio to Thai counterparts and both groups had higher ratios than the Malays and Lebanese at a given total FM. At a given BMI, both Chinese and Thai boys and girls had a higher WC than Malays and Lebanese (corrected mean WC was 68.1�}0.2 cm, 67.8�}0.3 cm, 65.8�}0.4 cm, 64.1�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay boys, respectively; 64.2�}0.2 cm, 65.0�}0.3 cm, 62.9�}0.4 cm, 60.6�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay girls, respectively). Chinese boys and girls had lower trunk fat adjusted subscapular/suprailiac skinfold ratio compared with Lebanese and Malay counterparts. The second study aimed to develop and cross�]validate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) prediction equations of TBW and FFM for Asian pre�]pubertal children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Data on height, weight, age, gender, resistance and reactance measured by BIA were collected from 948 Asian children (492 boys and 456 girls) aged 8�]10 y from the five countries. The deuterium dilution technique was used as the criterion method for the estimation of TBW and FFM. The BIA equations were developed from the validation group (630 children randomly selected from the total sample) using stepwise multiple regression analysis and cross�]validated in a separate group (318 children) using the Bland�]Altman approach. Age, gender and ethnicity influenced the relationship between the resistance index (RI = height2/resistance), TBW and FFM. The BIA prediction equation for the estimation of TBW was: TBW (kg) = 0.231�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.066�~Height (cm) + 0.188�~Weight (kg) + 0.128�~Age (yr) + 0.500�~Sex (male=1, female=0) . 0.316�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 4.574, and for the estimation of FFM: FFM (kg) = 0.299�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.086�~Height (cm) + 0.245�~Weight (kg) + 0.260�~Age (yr) + 0.901�~Sex (male=1, female=0) �] 0.415�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 6.952. The R2 was 88.0% (root mean square error, RSME = 1.3 kg), 88.3% (RSME = 1.7 kg) for TBW and FFM equation, respectively. No significant difference between measured and predicted TBW and between measured and predicted FFM for the whole cross�]validation sample was found (bias = �]0.1�}1.4 kg, pure error = 1.4�}2.0 kg for TBW and bias = �]0.2�}1.9 kg, pure error = 1.8�}2.6 kg for FFM). However, the prediction equation for estimation of TBW/FFM tended to overestimate TBW/FFM at lower levels while underestimate at higher levels of TBW/FFM. Accuracy of the general equation for TBW and FFM compared favorably with both BMI�]specific and ethnic�]specific equations. There were significant differences between predicted TBW and FFM from external BIA equations derived from Caucasian populations and measured values in Asian children. There were three specific aims of the third study. The first was to explore the relationship between obesity and metabolic syndrome and abnormalities in Chinese children. A total of 608 boys and 800 girls aged 6�]12 y were recruited from four cities in China. Three definitions of pediatric metabolic syndrome and abnormalities were used, including the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition for adults modified by Cook et al. and de Ferranti et al. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied with different definitions, was highest using the de Ferranti definition (5.4%, 24.6% and 42.0%, respectively for normal�]weight, overweight and obese children), followed by the Cook definition (1.5%, 8.1%, and 25.1%, respectively), and the IDF definition (0.5%, 1.8% and 8.3%, respectively). Overweight and obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal�]weight children (odds ratio varied with different definitions from 3.958 to 6.866 for overweight children, and 12.640�]26.007 for obese children). Overweight and obesity also increased the risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. Central obesity and high triglycerides (TG) were the most common while hyperglycemia was the least frequent in Chinese children regardless of different definitions. The second purpose was to determine the best obesity index for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor clustering across a 2�]y follow�]up among BMI, %BF, WC and waist�]to�]height ratio (WHtR) in Chinese children. Height, weight, WC, %BF as determined by BIA, blood pressure, TG, high�]density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL�]C), and fasting glucose were collected at baseline and 2 years later in 292 boys and 277 girls aged 8�]10 y. The results showed the percentage of children who remained overweight/obese defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR and %BF was 89.7%, 93.5%, 84.5%, and 80.4%, respectively after 2 years. Obesity indices at baseline significantly correlated with TG, HDL�]C, and blood pressure at both baseline and 2 years later with a similar strength of correlations. BMI at baseline explained the greatest variance of later blood pressure. WC at baseline explained the greatest variance of later HDL�]C and glucose, while WHtR at baseline was the main predictor of later TG. Receiver�]operating characteristic (ROC) analysis explored the ability of the four indices to identify the later presence of CV risk. The overweight/obese children defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR or %BF were more likely to develop CV risk 2 years later with relative risk (RR) scores of 3.670, 3.762, 2.767, and 2.804, respectively. The final purpose of the third study was to develop age�] and gender�]specific percentiles of WC and WHtR and cut�]off points of WC and WHtR for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children. Smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHtR were produced in 2830 boys and 2699 girls aged 6�]12 y randomly selected from southern and northern China using the LMS method. The optimal age�] and gender�]specific thresholds of WC and WHtR for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering were derived in a sub�]sample (n=1845) by ROC analysis. Age�] and gender�]specific WC and WHtR percentiles were constructed. The WC thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67.2% to 83.3%. The WHtR thresholds were at the 91st and 94th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 78.6% to 88.9%. The cut�]offs of both WC and WHtR were age�] and gender�]dependent. In conclusion, the current thesis quantifies the ethnic differences in the BMI�]%BF relationship and body fat distribution between Asian children from different origins and confirms the necessity to consider ethnic differences in body composition when developing BMI and other obesity index criteria for obesity in Asian children. Moreover, ethnicity is also important in BIA prediction equations. In addition, WC and WHtR percentiles and thresholds for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children differ from other populations. Although there was no advantage of WC or WHtR over BMI or %BF in the prediction of CV risk, obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome and abnormalities than normal�]weight children regardless of the obesity index used.

Human herpesvirus 8 load and progression of AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma lesions

Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Association between prostinogen (KLK15) genetic variants and prostate cancer risk and aggressiveness in Australia and a meta-analysis of GWAS data

Background: Kallikrein 15 (KLK15)/Prostinogen is a plausible candidate for prostate cancer susceptibility. Elevated KLK15 expression has been reported in prostate cancer and it has been described as an unfavorable prognostic marker for the disease. Objectives: We performed a comprehensive analysis of association of variants in the KLK15 gene with prostate cancer risk and aggressiveness by genotyping tagSNPs, as well as putative functional SNPs identified by extensive bioinformatics analysis. Methods and Data Sources: Twelve out of 22 SNPs, selected on the basis of linkage disequilibrium pattern, were analyzed in an Australian sample of 1,011 histologically verified prostate cancer cases and 1,405 ethnically matched controls. Replication was sought from two existing genome wide association studies (GWAS): the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project and a UK GWAS study. Results: Two KLK15 SNPs, rs2659053 and rs3745522, showed evidence of association (p, 0.05) but were not present on the GWAS platforms. KLK15 SNP rs2659056 was found to be associated with prostate cancer aggressiveness and showed evidence of association in a replication cohort of 5,051 patients from the UK, Australia, and the CGEMS dataset of US samples. A highly significant association with Gleason score was observed when the data was combined from these three studies with an Odds Ratio (OR) of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77-0.93; p = 2.7610 24). The rs2659056 SNP is predicted to alter binding of the RORalpha transcription factor, which has a role in the control of cell growth and differentiation and has been suggested to control the metastatic behavior of prostate cancer cells. Conclusions: Our findings suggest a role for KLK15 genetic variation in the etiology of prostate cancer among men of European ancestry, although further studies in very large sample sets are necessary to confirm effect sizes.

Food insecurity among Australian children : potential determinants, health and developmental consequences

Children in food-insecure households may be at risk of poor health, developmental or behavioural problems. This study investigated the associations between food insecurity, potential determinants and health and developmental outcomes among children. Data on household food security, socio-demographic characteristics and children’s weight, health and behaviour were collected from households with children aged 3–17 years in socioeconomically disadvantaged suburbs by mail survey using proxy-parental reports (185 households). Data were analysed using logistic regression. Approximately one-in-three households (34%) were food insecure. Low household income was associated with an increased risk of food insecurity [odds ratio (OR), 16.20; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.52–74.47]. Children with a parent born outside of Australia were less likely to experience food insecurity (OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.19–0.93). Children in food-insecure households were more likely to miss days from school or activities (OR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.46–8.54) and were more likely to have borderline or atypical emotional symptoms (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.11–5.38) or behavioural difficulties (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.04–5.33). Food insecurity may be prevalent among socioeconomically disadvantaged households with children. The potential developmental consequences of food insecurity during childhood may result in serious adverse health and social implications.

The obesity-associated polymorphisms FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 and endometrial cancer risk in non-Hispanic white women

Overweight and obesity are strongly associated with endometrial cancer. Several independent genome-wide association studies recently identified two common polymorphisms, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313, that are linked to increased body weight and obesity. We examined the association of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 with endometrial cancer risk in a pooled analysis of nine case-control studies within the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). This analysis included 3601 non-Hispanic white women with histologically-confirmed endometrial carcinoma and 5275 frequency-matched controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 genotypes to the risk of endometrial cancer. Among control women, both the FTO rs9939609 A and MC4R rs17782313 C alleles were associated with a 16% increased risk of being overweight (p = 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). In case-control analyses, carriers of the FTO rs9939609 AA genotype were at increased risk of endometrial carcinoma compared to women with the TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.32, p = 0.01]. However, this association was no longer apparent after adjusting for body mass index (BMI), suggesting mediation of the gene-disease effect through body weight. The MC4R rs17782313 polymorphism was not related to endometrial cancer risk (per allele OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91–1.06; p = 0.68). FTO rs9939609 is a susceptibility marker for white non-Hispanic women at higher risk of endometrial cancer. Although FTO rs9939609 alone might have limited clinical or public health significance for identifying women at high risk for endometrial cancer beyond that of excess body weight, further investigation of obesity-related genetic markers might help to identify the pathways that influence endometrial carcinogenesis.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Impact of a government triple zero awareness campaign on emergency department patient characteristics

Objective: To evaluate the impact of a government triple zero community awareness campaign on the characteristics of patients attending an ED. Methods: A study using Emergency Department Information System data was conducted in an adult metropolitan tertiary-referral teaching hospital in Brisbane. The three outcomes measured in the 3 month post-campaign period were arrival mode, Australasian Triage Scale and departure status. These measures reflect ambulance usage, clinical urgency and illness severity, respectively. They were compared with those in the 3 month pre-campaign period. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the impacts of the campaign on each of the three outcome measures after controlling for age, sex, day and time of arrival, and daily minimum temperature. Results: There were 17 920 visits in the pre- and 17 793 visits in the post-campaign period. After the campaign, fewer patients arrived at the ED by road ambulance (odds ratio [OR] 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80–1.00), although the impact of the campaign on the arrival mode was only close to statistical significance (Wald χ2-test, P= 0.055); and patients were significantly less likely to have higher clinical urgency (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79–0.94), while more likely to be admitted (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.38–2.05) or complete treatment in the ED (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.23–1.73) instead of leaving without waiting to be seen. Conclusions: The campaign had no significant impact on the arrival mode of the patients. After the campaign, the illness acuity of the patients decreased, whereas the illness severity of the patients increased.