156 resultados para National Research Council (U.S.). Highway Research Board
Resumo:
Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.
Resumo:
Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile
Resumo:
Characteristics of the road infrastructure affect both the popularity of bicycling and its safety, but comparisons of the safety performance of infrastructure may be confounded by differences in the profiles of cyclists who use them. Data from a survey of 2,532 adult bicycle riders in Queensland, Australia, demonstrated that many riders rode reluctantly in particular locations and that preference for riding location was influenced by degree of experience and riding purpose. Most riders rode most often and furthest per week on urban roads, but approximately one-third of all riders (and more new riders) rode there reluctantly. Almost two-thirds of riders rode on bicycle paths, most by choice, not reluctantly. New riders rode proportionally more on bicycle paths, but continuing riders rode further in absolute terms. Utilitarian riders were more likely to ride on bicycle paths than social and fitness riders and almost all of this riding was by choice. Fitness riders were more reluctant in their use of bicycle paths, but still most of their use was by choice. One-third of the respondents reported riding on the sidewalk (legal in Queensland), with approximately two-thirds doing so reluctantly. The frequency and distance ridden on the sidewalk was less than for urban roads and bicycle paths. Sidewalks and bicycle paths were important facilities for both inexperienced and experienced riders and for utilitarian riding, especially when urban roads were considered a poor choice for cycling.
Resumo:
Achieving sustainability is one of the major goals of many urban transportation systems. Over the years, many innovative policies have been attempted to achieve an efficient, safe, and sustainable transport system. Those policies often require smart technologies to assist implementation process and enhance effectiveness. This paper discusses how sustainability can be promoted by embedding smart technologies in a modern transportation system. In particular, this paper studies the transport system of Singapore to address how this system is addressing sustainability through the use of smart technologies. Various technological initiatives in managing traffic flow, monitoring and enforcement, sharing real-time information, and managing revenues are discussed in light of their potentiality in addressing sustainability issues. The Singapore experience provides a useful reference for the cities intending to develop and promote a sustainable transport system.
Resumo:
Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.
Importance of a resilient air services network to Australian remote, rural, and regional communities
Resumo:
Rural, regional, and remote settlements in Australia require resilient infrastructure to remain sustainable in a context characterized by frequent large-scale natural disasters, long distances between urban centers, and the pressures of economic change. A critical aspect of this infrastructure is the air services network, a system of airports, aircraft operators, and related industries that enables the high-speed movement of people, goods, and services to remote locations. A process of deregulation during the 1970s and 1980s resulted in many of these airports passing into local government and private ownership, and the rationalization of the industry saw the closure of a number of airlines and airports. This paper examines the impacts of deregulation on the resilience of air services and the contribution that they make to regional and rural communities. In particular, the robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity of the system are examined. The conclusion is that while the air services network has remained resilient in a situation of considerable change, the pressures of commercialization and the tendency to manage aspects of the system in isolation have contributed to a potential decrease in overall resilience.
Resumo:
For the evaluation, design, and planning of traffic facilities and measures, traffic simulation packages are the de facto tools for consultants, policy makers, and researchers. However, the available commercial simulation packages do not always offer the desired work flow and flexibility for academic research. In many cases, researchers resort to designing and building their own dedicated models, without an intrinsic incentive (or the practical means) to make the results available in the public domain. To make matters worse, a substantial part of these efforts pertains to rebuilding basic functionality and, in many respects, reinventing the wheel. This problem not only affects the research community but adversely affects the entire traffic simulation community and frustrates the development of traffic simulation in general. For this problem to be addressed, this paper describes an open source approach, OpenTraffic, which is being developed as a collaborative effort between the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; the National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo; and the Technical University of Delft, the Netherlands. The OpenTraffic simulation framework enables academies from geographic areas and disciplines within the traffic domain to work together and contribute to a specific topic of interest, ranging from travel choice behavior to car following, and from response to intelligent transportation systems to activity planning. The modular approach enables users of the software to focus on their area of interest, whereas other functional modules can be regarded as black boxes. Specific attention is paid to a standardization of data inputs and outputs for traffic simulations. Such standardization will allow the sharing of data with many existing commercial simulation packages.
Resumo:
Long traffic queues on off-ramps significantly compromise the safety and throughput of motorways. Obtaining accurate queue information is crucial for countermeasure strategies. However, it is challenging to estimate traffic queues with locally installed inductive loop detectors. This paper deals with the problem of queue estimation with the interpretation of queuing dynamics and the corresponding time-occupancy distribution over motorway off-ramps. A novel algorithm for real-time queue estimation with two detectors is presented and discussed. Results derived from microscopic traffic simulation validated the effectiveness of the algorithm and revealed some of its useful features: (a) long and intermediate traffic queues could be accurately measured, (b) relatively simple detector input (i.e., time occupancy) was required, and (c) the estimation philosophy was independent with signal timing changes and provided the potential to cooperate with advanced strategies for signal control. Some issues concerning field implementation are also discussed.
Traffic queue estimation for metered motorway on-ramps through use of loop detector time occupancies
Resumo:
The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is a vital input for dynamic queue management on metered on-ramps. Accurate and reliable queue information enables the management of on-ramp queue in an adaptive manner to the actual traffic queue size and thus minimises the adverse impacts of queue flush while increasing the benefit of ramp metering. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.
Resumo:
The Children’s Book Council of Australia (CBCA) administers the oldest national prize for children’s literature in Australia. Each year, the CBCA confers “Book of the Year” awards to literature for young people in five categories. In 2001, the establishment of an “Early Childhood” category opened up the venerable “Picture Book” category (first awarded in 1955) to books with an implied readership up to 18 years of age. As a result, this category has emerged in recent years as a highly visible space within which the CBCA can contest discourses of cultural marginalisation insofar as Australian (“colonial”) literature is constructed as inferior or adjunct to the major Anglophone literary traditions, and the consistent identification of children’s literature (and, indeed, of children) as lesser than its ‘adult’ counterparts. The CBCA is engaged in defining, evaluating, and legitimising a tradition of Australian children’s literature which is underpinned by a canonical impulse, and is a reflexive practice of self-definition, self-evaluation and self-legitimisation for the CBCA itself. While it is obviously problematic to identify award winners as a canon, it is equally obvious that literary prizing is a cultural practice derived from the logic of canonicity. In his discussion of the United States’s Newbery Medal, Kenneth Kidd notes that “Medal books are instant classics, the selection process an ostensible simulation of the test of time” (169) and that “the Medal is part of the canonical architecture of children's literature” (169). Thus, it is instructive to consider the visions and values of the national, of the social, and of the literary-aesthetic, in the picture books chosen by the Children’s Book Council of Australia (CBCA) as the “best” of the early twenty-first century. These books not only constitute a kind of canon for contemporary Australian children’s literature, but may well come to define what contemporary Australian children’s literature means in the wider literary field. The Book of the Year: Picture Book awards given by the CBCA since 2001 demonstrate that it is not only true of the Booker Prize that, “The choices of winning books reflect not only on the books themselves, then, but also back on the Prize, affecting its reputation and creating journalistic capital which is vital for the Prize to achieve its prominence and impact.” (81). Many of the twenty-first century CBCA award-winning picture books complicate traditional or comfortable understanding of Australianness, children’s literature, or “appropriate” modes of form and content, reminding us that “moments when texts resist or complicate recuperation into national discourses offer fruitful points for exploring the relationships between text and celebratory context” (Roberts 6). The CBCA has taken the opportunities offered by the liberation of the Picture Book category from an implied readership to challenge dominant constructions of children’s literature in Australia, and in so doing, are engaged in overt practices of canonicity with potentially long-lasting effects. Works Cited: Kidd, Kenneth. “Prizing Children’s Literature: The Case of Newbery Gold.” Children's Literature 35 (2007): 166-190. Roberts, Gillian. Prizing Literature: The Celebration and Circulation of National Culture. Toronto: U Toronto P, 2011. Squires, Claire. “Book Marketing and the Booker Prize.” Judging a Book by Its Cover: Fans, Publishers, Designers, and the Marketing of Fiction. Eds. Nicole Matthews and Nickianne Moody. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007. 71-82.
Resumo:
Drivers behave in different ways, and these different behaviors are a cause of traffic disturbances. A key objective for simulation tools is to correctly reproduce this variability, in particular for car-following models. From data collection to the sampling of realistic behaviors, a chain of key issues must be addressed. This paper discusses data filtering, robustness of calibration, correlation between parameters, and sampling techniques of acceleration-time continuous car-following models. The robustness of calibration is systematically investigated with an objective function that allows confidence regions around the minimum to be obtained. Then, the correlation between sets of calibrated parameters and the validity of the joint distributions sampling techniques are discussed. This paper confirms the need for adapted calibration and sampling techniques to obtain realistic sets of car-following parameters, which can be used later for simulation purposes.