Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

ACE research vignette 008 : acquisitions - a route to new growth opportunities?

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.

The preferences of private equity investors in selecting target acquisitions : an international investigation

This study investigates the characteristics and attributes that private equity investors prefer when selecting target acquisitions. These characteristics are examined against a matched sample of firms subject to corporate acquisitions via tender/merger offer during 2000-2009, across seven countries: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, the USA, France, Germany and Sweden. We show that firm-specific characteristics are more influential in target selection than external or institutional variables. In particular, private equity targets exhibit lower stock volatility and long-term growth prospects, are larger, and have greater abnormal operating income relative to tender/merger offer target firms. Further, private equity bidders exhibit 'home bias', implying that familiarity motivates target selection. Institutional factors remain largely insignificant across all tests.

The global creative economy and the new development debate

This paper explores the renewed interest in the creative economy as a possible development pathway for developing nations. Noting the extent to which discussions of creative industries frequently merge into the concept of a creative economy, the paper considers the institutional and public policy settings required to capture economic value associated with creative practice. It is also argued that knowledge economy and creative economy discourses are increasingly merging, particularly in their focus upon design, innovation, software development and convergent media. The paper draws attention to ambiguities in policy discourse, particularly in relation to copyright and intellectual property.

The inter-relationships between ovarian-independent growth, tumorigenicity, invasiveness and antioestrogen resistance in the malignant progression of human breast cancer

Among the processes contributing to the progressive acquisition of the highly malignant phenotype in breast cancer are ovarian-independent growth, antioestrogen resistance and increased metastatic potential. We have previously observed that increased invasiveness and development of ovarian-independent growth occur independently. In an attempt to define the inter-relationships between these processes further, we have compared the phenotypes of ovarian-independent, invasive and antioestrogen-resistant sublines of the ovarian-dependent human breast cancer cell line MCF-7. Cells acquiring ovarian-independent growth can retain sensitivity to anti-oestrogens. One clone of MCF-7 cells selected for stable antioestrogen resistance has become non-tumorigenic but its invasive potential remains unaltered. Thus, acquisitions of some characteristics of the progressed phenotype can occur independently. This phenomenon of independent parameters in phenotypic progression could partly explain the considerable intra- and intertumour heterogeneity characteristic of breast tumours.

The effects of rurality on mental and physical health

The effects of rurality on physical and mental health are examined in analyses of a national dataset, the Community Tracking Survey, 2000-2001, that includes individual level observations from household interviews. We merge it with county level data reflecting community resources and use econometric methods to analyze this multi-level data. The statistical analysis of the impact of the choice of definition on outcomes and on the estimates and significance of explanatory variables in the model is presented using modern econometric methods, and differences in results for mental health and physical health are evaluated. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The darker side of green : plantation forestry and carbon violence in Uganda

In recent years, there has been a significant trend toward land acquisition in developing countries, establishing forestry plantations for offsetting carbon pollution generated in the Global North. Badged as “green economic development,” global carbon markets are often championed not only as solutions to climate change, but as drivers of positive development outcomes for local communities. But there is mounting evidence that these corporate land acquisitions for climate change mitigation—including forestry plantations—severely compromise not only local ecologies but also the livelihoods of the some of the world’s most vulnerable people living at subsistence level in rural areas in developing countries.

Dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA

Metabolic imaging using positron emission tomography (PET) has found increasing clinical use for the management of infiltrating tumours such as glioma. However, the heterogeneous biological nature of tumours and intrinsic treatment resistance in some regions means that knowledge of multiple biological factors is needed for effective treatment planning. For example, the use of 18F-FDOPA to identify infiltrative tumour and 18F-FMISO for localizing hypoxic regions. Performing multiple PET acquisitions is impractical in many clinical settings, but previous studies suggest multiplexed PET imaging could be viable. The fidelity of the two signals is affected by the injection interval, scan timing and injected dose. The contribution of this work is to propose a framework to explicitly trade-off signal fidelity with logistical constraints when designing the imaging protocol. The particular case of estimating 18F-FMISO from a single frame prior to injection of 18F-FDOPA is considered. Theoretical experiments using simulations for typical biological scenarios in humans demonstrate that results comparable to a pair of single-tracer acquisitions can be obtained provided protocol timings are carefully selected. These results were validated using a pre-clinical data set that was synthetically multiplexed. The results indicate that the dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA could be feasible in the clinical setting. The proposed framework could also be used to design protocols for other tracers.

Introduction to "Business innovation and disruption in the music industry"

Similar to most other creative industries, the evolution of the music industry is heavily shaped by media technologies. This was equally true in 1999, when the global recorded music industry had experienced two decades of continuous growth largely driven by the rapid transition from vinyl records to Compact Discs. The transition encouraged avid music listeners to purchase much of their music collections all over again in order to listen to their favourite music with ‘digital sound’. As a consequence of this successful product innovation, recorded music sales (unit measure) more than doubled between the early 1980s and the end of the 1990s. It was with this backdrop that the first peer-to-peer file sharing service was developed and released to the mainstream music market in 1999 by the college student Shawn Fanning. The service was named Napster and it marks the beginning of an era that is now a classic example of how an innovation is able to disrupt an entire industry and make large swathes of existing industry competences obsolete. File sharing services such as Napster, followed by a range of similar services in its path, reduced physical unit sales in the music industry to levels that had not been seen since the 1970s. The severe impact of the internet on physical sales shocked many music industry executives who spent much of the 2000s vigorously trying to reverse the decline and make the disruptive technologies go away. At the end, they learned that their efforts were to no avail and the impact on the music industry proved to be transformative, irreversible and, to many music industry professionals, also devastating. Thousands of people lost their livelihood, large and small music companies have folded or been forced into mergers or acquisitions. But as always during periods of disruption, the past 15 years have also been very innovative, spurring a plethora of new music business models. These new business models have mainly emerged outside the music industry and the innovators have been often been required to be both persuasive and persistent in order to get acceptance from the risk-averse and cash-poor music industry establishment. Apple was one such change agent that in 2003 was the first company to open up a functioning and legal market for online music. iTunes Music Store was the first online retail outlet that was able to offer the music catalogues from all the major music companies; it used an entirely novel pricing model, and it allowed consumers to de-bundle the music album and only buy the songs that they actually liked. Songs had previously been bundled by physical necessity as discs or cassettes, but with iTunes Music Store, the institutionalized album bundle slowly started to fall apart. The consequences had an immediate impact on music retailing and within just a few years, many brick and mortar record stores were forced out of business in markets across the world. The transformation also had disruptive consequences beyond music retailing and redefined music companies’ organizational structures, work processes and routines, as well as professional roles. iTunes Music Store in one sense was a disruptive innovation, but it was at the same time relatively incremental, since the major labels’ positions and power structures remained largely unscathed. The rights holders still controlled their intellectual properties and the structures that guided the royalties paid per song that was sold were predictable, transparent and in line with established music industry practices.