A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Classification of Airborne LIDAR Intensity Data Using Statistical Analysis and Hough Transform with Application to Power Line Corridors

Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) has great potential to assist vegetation management in power line corridors by providing more accurate geometric information of the power line assets and vegetation along the corridors. However, the development of algorithms for the automatic processing of LIDAR point cloud data, in particular for feature extraction and classification of raw point cloud data, is in still in its infancy. In this paper, we take advantage of LIDAR intensity and try to classify ground and non-ground points by statistically analyzing the skewness and kurtosis of the intensity data. Moreover, the Hough transform is employed to detected power lines from the filtered object points. The experimental results show the effectiveness of our methods and indicate that better results were obtained by using LIDAR intensity data than elevation data.

Assessment of Health Impacts of Heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia : How to Best Define A Heatwave?

Background and Objective: As global warming continues, the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves are likely to increase. However, a heatwave is unlikely to be defined uniformly because acclimatisation plays a significant role in determining the heat-related impact. This study investigated how to best define a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Computerised datasets on daily weather, air pollution and health outcomes between 1996 and 2005 were obtained from pertinent government agencies. Paired t-tests and case-crossover analyses were performed to assess the relationship between heatwaves and health outcomes using different heatwave definitions. Results: The maximum temperature was as high as 41.5°C with a mean maximum daily temperature of 26.3°C. None of the five commonly-used heatwave definitions suited Brisbane well on the basis of the health effects of heatwaves. Additionally, there were pros and cons when locally-defined definitions were attempted using either a relative or absolute definition for extreme temperatures. Conclusion: The issue of how to best define a heatwave is complex. It is important to identify an appropriate definition of heatwave locally and to understand its health effects.

Exercise alone is not enough : weight loss also needs a healthy (Mediterranean) diet?

Objective: In the majority of exercise intervention studies, the aggregate reported weight loss is often small. The efficacy of exercise as a weight loss tool remains in question. The aim of the present study was to investigate the variability in appetite and body weight when participants engaged in a supervised and monitored exercise programme. ---------- Design: Fifty-eight obese men and women (BMI = 31·8 ± 4·5 kg/m2) were prescribed exercise to expend approximately 2092 kJ (500 kcal) per session, five times a week at an intensity of 70 % maximum heart rate for 12 weeks under supervised conditions in the research unit. Body weight and composition, total daily energy intake and various health markers were measured at weeks 0, 4, 8 and 12. ---------- Results: Mean reduction in body weight (3·2 ± 1·98 kg) was significant (P < 0·001); however, there was large individual variability (−14·7 to +2·7 kg). This large variability could be largely attributed to the differences in energy intake over the 12-week intervention. Those participants who failed to lose meaningful weight increased their food intake and reduced intake of fruits and vegetables. ---------- Conclusion: These data have demonstrated that even when exercise energy expenditure is high, a healthy diet is still required for weight loss to occur in many people.

Measurement properties of the Australian Women's Activity Survey

Purpose: The Australian Women’s Activity Survey (AWAS) was developed based on a systematic review and qualitative research on how to measure activity patterns of women with young children (WYC). AWAS assesses activity performed across five domains (planned activities, employment, childcare, domestic responsibilities and transport), and intensity levels (sitting, light-intensity, brisk walking, moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity) in a typical week in the past month. The purpose of this study was to assess the test-retest reliability and criterion validity of the AWAS. Methods: WYC completed the AWAS on two occasions 7-d apart (test-retest reliability protocol) and/or wore an MTI ActiGraph accelerometer for 7-d in between (validity protocol). Forty WYC (mean age 35 ± 5yrs) completed the test-retest reliability protocol and 75 WYC (mean age 33 ± 5yrs) completed the validity protocol. Interclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) between AWAS administrations and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficients (rs) between AWAS and MTI data were calculated. Results: AWAS showed good test-retest reliability (ICC=0.80 (0.65-0.89)) and acceptable criterion validity (rs= 0.28, p=0.01) for measuring weekly health-enhancing physical activity. AWAS also provided repeatable and valid estimates of sitting time (test-retest reliability ICC=0.42 (0.13-0.64), and criterion validity (rs= 0.32, p=0.006)). Conclusion: The measurement properties of the AWAS are comparable to those reported for existing self-report measures of physical activity. However, AWAS offers a more comprehensive and flexible alternative for accurately assessing different domains and intensities of activity relevant to WYC. Future research should investigate whether the AWAS is a suitable measure of intervention efficacy by examining its sensitivity to change.

Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

Simulated cataracts and their effect on speech intelligibility

Purpose: The classic study of Sumby and Pollack (1954, JASA, 26(2), 212-215) demonstrated that visual information aided speech intelligibility under noisy auditory conditions. Their work showed that visual information is especially useful under low signal-to-noise conditions where the auditory signal leaves greater margins for improvement. We investigated whether simulated cataracts interfered with the ability of participants to use visual cues to help disambiguate the auditory signal in the presence of auditory noise. Methods: Participants in the study were screened to ensure normal visual acuity (mean of 20/20) and normal hearing (auditory threshold ≤ 20 dB HL). Speech intelligibility was tested under an auditory only condition and two visual conditions: normal vision and simulated cataracts. The light scattering effects of cataracts were imitated using cataract-simulating filters. Participants wore blacked-out glasses in the auditory only condition and lens-free frames in the normal auditory-visual condition. Individual sentences were spoken by a live speaker in the presence of prerecorded four-person background babble set to a speech-to-noise ratio (SNR) of -16 dB. The SNR was determined in a preliminary experiment to support 50% correct identification of sentence under the auditory only conditions. The speaker was trained to match the rate, intensity and inflections of a prerecorded audio track of everyday speech sentences. The speaker was blind to the visual conditions of the participant to control for bias.Participants’ speech intelligibility was measured by comparing the accuracy of their written account of what they believed the speaker to have said to the actual spoken sentence. Results: Relative to the normal vision condition, speech intelligibility was significantly poorer when participants wore simulated catarcts. Conclusions: The results suggest that cataracts may interfere with the acquisition of visual cues to speech perception.

Effects of starting strategy on 5-min cycling time-trial performance

The importance of pacing for middle-distance performance is well recognized, yet previous research has produced equivocal results. Twenty-six trained male cyclists (O2peak 62.8 ± 5.9 ml · kg-1 · min-1; maximal aerobic power output 340 ± 43 W; mean ± s) performed three cycling time-trials where the total external work (102.7 ± 13.7 kJ) for each trial was identical to the best of two 5-min habituation trials. Markers of aerobic and anaerobic metabolism were assessed in 12 participants. Power output during the first quarter of the time-trials was fixed to control external mechanical work done (25.7 ± 3.4 kJ) and induce fast-, even-, and slow-starting strategies (60, 75, and 90 s, respectively). Finishing times for the fast-start time-trial (4:53 ± 0:11 min:s) were shorter than for the even-start (5:04 ± 0:11 min:s; 95% CI = 5 to 18 s, effect size = 0.65, P < 0.001) and slow-start time-trial (5:09 ± 0:11 min:s; 95% CI = 7 to 24 s, effect size = 1.00, P < 0.001). Mean O2 during the fast-start trials (4.31 ± 0.51 litres · min-1) was 0.18 ± 0.19 litres · min-1 (95% CI = 0.07 to 0.30 litres · min-1, effect size = 0.94, P = 0.003) higher than the even- and 0.18 ± 0.20 litres · min-1 (95% CI = 0.5 to 0.30 litres · min-1, effect size = 0.86, P = 0.007) higher than the slow-start time-trial. Oxygen deficit was greatest during the first quarter of the fast-start trial but was lower than the even- and slow-start trials during the second quarter of the trial. Blood lactate and pH were similar between the three trials. In conclusion, performance during a 5-min cycling time-trial was improved with the adoption of a fast- rather than an even- or slow-starting strategy.

Influence of all-out and fast start of 5-min cycling time trial performance

Purpose: To examine the influence of two different fast-start pacing strategies on performance and oxygen consumption (V˙O2) during cycle ergometer time trials lasting ∼5 min. Methods: Eight trained male cyclists performed four cycle ergometer time trials whereby the total work completed (113 ± 11.5 kJ; mean ± SD) was identical to the better of two 5-min self-paced familiarization trials. During the performance trials, initial power output was manipulated to induce either an all-out or a fast start. Power output during the first 60 s of the fast-start trial was maintained at 471.0 ± 48.0 W, whereas the all-out start approximated a maximal starting effort for the first 15 s (mean power: 753.6 ± 76.5 W) followed by 45 s at a constant power output (376.8 ± 38.5 W). Irrespective of starting strategy, power output was controlled so that participants would complete the first quarter of the trial (28.3 ± 2.9 kJ) in 60 s. Participants performed two trials using each condition, with their fastest time trial compared. Results: Performance time was significantly faster when cyclists adopted the all-out start (4 min 48 s ± 8 s) compared with the fast start (4 min 51 s ± 8 s; P < 0.05). The first-quarter V˙O2 during the all-out start trial (3.4 ± 0.4 L·min-1) was significantly higher than during the fast-start trial (3.1 ± 0.4 L·min-1; P < 0.05). After removal of an outlier, the percentage increase in first-quarter V˙O2 was significantly correlated (r = -0.86, P < 0.05) with the relative difference in finishing time. Conclusions: An all-out start produces superior middle distance cycling performance when compared with a fast start. The improvement in performance may be due to a faster V˙O2 response rather than time saved due to a rapid acceleration.

Spatial information infrastructure : what can it possibly mean?

Investment begins with imagining that doing something new in the present will lead to a better future. Investment can vary from incidental improvements as safe and beneficial side-effects of current activity through to a more dedicated and riskier disinvestment in current methods of operation and reinvestment in new processes and products. The role of government has an underlying continuity determined by its constitution that authorises a parliament to legislate for peace, order and good government. ‘Good government’ is usually interpreted as improving the living standards of its citizens. The requirements for social order and social cohesion suggest that improvements should be shared fairly by all citizens through all of their lives. Arguably, the need to maintain an individual’s metabolism has a social counterpart in the ‘collective metabolism’ of a sustainable and productive society.

Exercise intensity influences NEAT in overweight and obese adults

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of acute bouts of moderate- and high-intensity walking exercise on non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) in overweight and obese adults. ---------- METHOD: 16 participants performed a single bout of either moderate-intensity walking exercise (MIE) or high-intensity walking exercise (HIE) on two separate occasions. The MIE consisted of walking for 60 minutes on a motorized treadmill at 6 km.h. The 60-minute HIE session consisted of walking in 5-min intervals at 6 km.h and 10% grade followed by 5-min at 0% grade. NEAT was assessed by accelerometer on three days before, the day of, and three days following the exercise sessions. ---------- RESULTS: There was no significant difference in NEAT vector magnitude (counts.min) between the pre-exercise period (days 1-3) and the exercise day (day 4) for either MIE or HIE protocol. In addition, there was no change in NEAT during the three days following the MIE session, however NEAT increased by 16% on day 7 (post-exercise) compared with exercise day (P = 0.32). However during the post-exercise period following the HIE session, NEAT was increased by 25% on day 7 compared with the exercise day (P = 0.08), and by 30-33% compared with pre-exercise period (day 1, day 2 and day 3); P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, respectively. ---------- CONCLUSION: A single bout of either MIE or HIE did not alter NEAT on the exercise day or on the first two days following the exercise session. However, monitoring NEAT on a third day allowed the detection of a 48-h delay in increased NEAT after performing HIE. A longer-term intervention is needed to determine the effect of accumulated exercise sessions over a week on NEAT.