An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Transforming mobile personal life log into autobiographical multimedia eChronicles

Mobile devices are becoming indispensable personal assistants in people's daily life as these devices support work, study, play and socializing activities. The multi-modal sensors and rich features of smartphones can capture abundant information about users' life experience, such as taking photos or videos on what they see and hear, and organizing their tasks and activities using calendar, to-do lists, and notes. Such vast information can become useful to help users recalling episodic memories and reminisce about meaningful experiences. In this paper, we propose to apply autobiographical memory framework to provide an effective mechanism to structure mobile life-log data. The proposed model is an attempt towards a more complete personal life-log indexing model, which will support long term capture, organization, and retrieval. To demonstrate the benefits of the proposed model, we propose some design solutions for enabling users-driven capture, annotation, and retrieval of autobiographical multimedia chronicles tools.

Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.

Determining process model precision and generalization with weighted artificial negative events

Process mining encompasses the research area which is concerned with knowledge discovery from event logs. One common process mining task focuses on conformance checking, comparing discovered or designed process models with actual real-life behavior as captured in event logs in order to assess the “goodness” of the process model. This paper introduces a novel conformance checking method to measure how well a process model performs in terms of precision and generalization with respect to the actual executions of a process as recorded in an event log. Our approach differs from related work in the sense that we apply the concept of so-called weighted artificial negative events towards conformance checking, leading to more robust results, especially when dealing with less complete event logs that only contain a subset of all possible process execution behavior. In addition, our technique offers a novel way to estimate a process model’s ability to generalize. Existing literature has focused mainly on the fitness (recall) and precision (appropriateness) of process models, whereas generalization has been much more difficult to estimate. The described algorithms are implemented in a number of ProM plugins, and a Petri net conformance checking tool was developed to inspect process model conformance in a visual manner.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Shrinking the keys of discrete-log-type lossy trapdoor functions

To this day, realizations in the standard-model of (lossy) trapdoor functions from discrete-log-type assumptions require large public key sizes, e.g., about Θ(λ 2) group elements for a reduction from the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption (where λ is a security parameter). We propose two realizations of lossy trapdoor functions that achieve public key size of only Θ(λ) group elements in bilinear groups, with a reduction from the decisional Bilinear Diffie-Hellman assumption. Our first construction achieves this result at the expense of a long common reference string of Θ(λ 2) elements, albeit reusable in multiple LTDF instantiations. Our second scheme also achieves public keys of size Θ(λ), entirely in the standard model and in particular without any reference string, at the cost of a slightly more involved construction. The main technical novelty, developed for the second scheme, is a compact encoding technique for generating compressed representations of certain sequences of group elements for the public parameters.

Parental perceptions of the learner driver log book system in two Australian states

Objective While many jurisdictions internationally now require learner drivers to complete a specified number of hours of supervised driving practice before being able to drive unaccompanied, very few require learner drivers to complete a log book to record this practice and then present it to the licensing authority. Learner drivers in most Australian jurisdictions must complete a log book that records their practice thereby confirming to the licensing authority that they have met the mandated hours of practice requirement. These log books facilitate the management and enforcement of minimum supervised hours of driving requirements. Method Parents of learner drivers in two Australian states, Queensland and New South Wales, completed an online survey assessing a range of factors, including their perceptions of the accuracy of their child’s learner log book and the effectiveness of the log book system. Results The study indicates that the large majority of parents believe that their child’s learner log book is accurate. However, they generally report that the log book system is only moderately effective as a system to measure the number of hours of supervised practice a learner driver has completed. Conclusions The results of this study suggest the presence of a paradox with many parents possibly believing that others are not as diligent in the use of log books as they are or that the system is too open to misuse. Given that many parents report that their child’s log book is accurate, this study has important implications for the development and ongoing monitoring of hours of practice requirements in graduated driver licensing systems.

Weak conformance of process models with respect to data objects

Process models specify behavioral aspects by describing ordering constraints between tasks which must be accomplished to achieve envisioned goals. Tasks usually exchange information by means of data objects, i.e., by writing information to and reading information from data objects. A data object can be characterized by its states and allowed state transitions. In this paper, we propose a notion which checks conformance of a process model with respect to data objects that its tasks access. This new notion can be used to tell whether in every execution of a process model each time a task needs to access a data object in a particular state, it is ensured that the data object is in the expected state or can reach the expected state and, hence, the process model can achieve its goals.

Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Log delta analysis: Interpretable differencing of Business process event logs

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and explaining behavioral differences between two business process event logs. The paper presents a method that, given two event logs, returns a set of statements in natural language capturing behavior that is present or frequent in one log, while absent or infrequent in the other. This log delta analysis method allows users to diagnose differences between normal and deviant executions of a process or between two versions or variants of a process. The method relies on a novel approach to losslessly encode an event log as an event structure, combined with a frequency-enhanced technique for differencing pairs of event structures. A validation of the proposed method shows that it accurately diagnoses typical change patterns and can explain differences between normal and deviant cases in a real-life log, more compactly and precisely than previously proposed methods.

A new registration method based on Log-Euclidean tensor metrics and its application to genetic studies

In structural brain MRI, group differences or changes in brain structures can be detected using Tensor-Based Morphometry (TBM). This method consists of two steps: (1) a non-linear registration step, that aligns all of the images to a common template, and (2) a subsequent statistical analysis. The numerous registration methods that have recently been developed differ in their detection sensitivity when used for TBM, and detection power is paramount in epidemological studies or drug trials. We therefore developed a new fluid registration method that computes the mappings and performs statistics on them in a consistent way, providing a bridge between TBM registration and statistics. We used the Log-Euclidean framework to define a new regularizer that is a fluid extension of the Riemannian elasticity, which assures diffeomorphic transformations. This regularizer constrains the symmetrized Jacobian matrix, also called the deformation tensor. We applied our method to an MRI dataset from 40 fraternal and identical twins, to revealed voxelwise measures of average volumetric differences in brain structure for subjects with different degrees of genetic resemblance.

Fluid States: Performances of Unknowing - The LOG

The LOG is the online edited proceedings of PSi#21 Fluid States: Performances of Unknowing, a festival-style series of conferences, symposia and performances across Asia, Africa, Europe, the Pacific and the Americas throughout 2015, incorporating texts, images, videos and other correspondence and commentary from literally hundreds of the world's top drama, theatre, performance and cultural studies scholars.

Lady Nugent and Tom Cringle on the veranda : early nineteenth century observations on a Caribbean architectural feature

This study of the veranda as seen through the eyes of Lady Maria Nugent and Michael Scott, alias Tom Cringle, clearly demonstrates the important role that the piazza, as it was then more commonly known, played in the life of early nineteenth century Caribbean colonial society. The popularity of the veranda throughout the region, in places influenced by different European as well as African cultures, and among all classes of people, suggests that the appeal of this typical feature was based on something more than architectural fashion. A place of relative comfort in hot weather, the veranda is also a space at the interface of indoors and outdoors which allows for a wide variety of uses, for solitary or small or large group activities, many of which were noted by Nugent and Scott. Quintessentially, the veranda is a place in which to relax and take pleasure, not least of which is the enjoyment of the prospect, be it a panoramic view, a peaceful garden or a lively street scene. Despite the great changes in the nature of society, in the Caribbean and in many other parts of the world, the veranda and related structures such as the balcony continue to play at least as important a role in daily life as they did two centuries ago. The veranda of today’s Californian or Australian bungalow, and the balcony of the apartment block in the residential area of the modern city are among the contemporary equivalents of the lower and upper piazzas of Lady Nugent’s and Tom Cringle’s day.